Thursday, July 18, 2024
Sports Betting Phenoms

MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (65-60) at Philadelphia Phillies (68-57)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: The Giants will play the penultimate game of their road trip tonight against the Wild Card-leading Phillies. SF is 1-3 on the road trip thus far, dropping two of three in Atlanta before falling 10-4 yesterday. Since August 5, the Giants have lost 11-of-15 games to fall from 12 games over .500 at 61-49 to their current 65-60 mark. The Giants have lost five straight series, last winning one July 31-Aug.3 vs. Arizona (3-1). SF had its six-game winning streak vs. PHI snapped yesterday…they have won 12 of 16 games vs. the Phillies since 2021.

ROSTER MOVES: The Giants made the following roster moves prior to tonight’s game.
RHP Ryan Walker (#74) was reinstated from the Paternity List.

LHP Kyle Harrison (#45) had his contract purchased from Triple-A Sacramento.

RHP Sean Hjelle and OF Heliot Ramos were optioned to TripleA Sacramento.

IF Mark Mathias was transferred to the 60-day Injured List.

ON THE MEND: The Giants also sent two key contributors out on rehab assignments. OF Mitch Haniger was placed on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento.
RHP John Brebbia was placed on a rehab assignment with ACL Orange.

IT’S TIME: LHP Kyle Harrison will make his debut on the mound tonight here in Philadelphia. In addition to being the No. 1 ranked player in the SF system on MLB.com, Harrison is the game’s No. 20 overall prospect and top left-hander. Harrison’s 14.39 K/9 is second-best in all of MiLB while his 35.6 strikeout rate is tied for fifth-best (min. 65.0ip). When he officially debuts, Harrison would be the 11th Giants player to make his MLB debut this season, and fourth pitcher. Harrison will also be the first Giants pitcher to start in his MLB debut since RHP Logan Webb on August 17, 2019 at Arizona. Lastly, Harrison will be the youngest Giant (22 years, 10 days) to make his MLB debut as a starter since LHP Madison Bumgarner debuted at 20 years, 38 days on September 8, 2009.

HOMESICK: The Giants are 2-13 in their last 15 road games dating to July 19. SF has been outscored 81-43 (-38) over its last 15 road games. In that stretch, SF hitters are batting .195 while averaging 2.9 runs per game, with 13 home runs and a .580 OPS on the road. Giants pitchers have posted a 5.61 ERA (76er, 122.0ip) on the road with 19 home runs allowed and an .837 opposing OPS since July 19. A series win in Philadelphia would be SF’s first on the road since sweeping a three-game set in Pittsburgh out of the break (July 14-16)…they are 0-5-1 in road series since (including a one-game set in Detroit on July 24).

BOUNCE BACK: SF has committed five errors over its last two games, including three in yesterday’s defeat. The Giants 21 games with at least two errors are most in MLB. Their 19 errors are the most in MLB this month while their .972 fielding percentage ranks 29th.

GRIND IT OUT: The Giants are in the midst of one of the toughest parts of their schedule all season. It started last homestand with Texas (1st in the AL West) and Tampa Bay (2nd in the AL East / 1st AL Wild Card), and continued this past weekend with Atlanta (best record in the MLB). It continues over the next two weeks with this series here in Philadelphia (2nd in NL East / 1st NL Wild Card), Atlanta at home again next weekend and then Cincinnati (1.0 game back of SF for the final Wild Card spot). Following that, SF takes a two-series road trip in San Diego (5.5 games back of third Wild Card) and Chicago-NL (2nd in NL Central / 2nd NL Wild Card).
SF has the ninth-hardest remaining schedule with their opponents having a .512 combined winning percentage.

RUN WITH CAUTION: Since June 1, IF Wilmer Flores has reached base safely via a hit, walk or HBP in 45 of the 51 games he’s played during this stretch. In that span, he’s slashing .359/.420/.635 with 13 doubles, 11 homers, 27 RBI, 26 runs scored, 15 walks and 19 strikeouts. Flores’ 1.055 OPS since June 1 is fourth-best in the Majors (min. 175 PA) behind LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (1.228), TEX’s Corey Seager (1.108) and LAD’s Mookie Betts (1.089). He currently leads the team in homers (17) and would be the first Giant to lead the team in home runs, and hit over .300 since C Buster Posey did so in 2014 (Stats, LLC).

RUN WITH CAUTION: The Giants have thrown out 31 base stealers this season, which is most in the National League, and second to only Oakland’s 37. With C Patrick Bailey (62 starts at catcher) and C/OF Blake Sabol (35 starts at catcher), the 2023 Giants are just the seventh team since 1965 to have two rookies start at least 35 games at catcher in the same season, and first since the 2012 Cubs (Stats, LLC). Bailey has been credited with 21 caught stealings, second in MLB, and the most since he was promoted on May 19. His 33.9% caught stealing rate is second-best in MLB (min. 50 games caught).

RISP-Y BUSINESS:The Giants were 2-for-5 with RISP yesterday, but stranded the bases loaded with one out in the 1st inning. SF has scored three runs in 10 PA with the bases loaded in its last two games, going 0-for-5 on Sunday, and 1-for-3 yesterday…the one hit was a 9th inning infield single by Sabol. They are 11-for-69 (.159) with RISP over their last 10 games. The Giants are 29th with RISP in batting average (.210) and RBI (114) since June 22 and 28th with a .652 OPS.

TODAY’S STARTER – KYLE HARRISON LHP #45
2023 RECORD: MLB Debut

WITH THE GIANTS: Will be making his MLB debut after spending parts of three seasons in the system…was selected in the third round of the 2020 MLB Draft out of De La Salle High School (Concord, CA).

TODAY’S GAME: In addition to being the No. 1 ranked player in the SF system on MLB.com, Harrison is the game’s No. 20 overall prospect and top left-hander…he has earned 10 awards during his minor league career, including two Triple-A Pitcher of the Week awards this year.

LAST OUTING: Harrison struck out seven while allowing three runs on six hits and no walks across 4.0 innings vs. Tacoma (Seattle) on August 15 for Triple-A Sacramento…his 60 pitches thrown were his most since being activated off the injured list.

STRIKE FIRST: He leaves the Minors with a 14.39 K/9, which is second-best in all of MiLB (minimum 65.0 innings pitched)…he is also striking out 35.6% of batters faced, which is fifth-best among Minor Leaguers.

BACK ON TRACK: Since returning from a hamstring strain on July 31, Harrison has pitched four Minor League games, three for Triple-A Sacramento, posting a 3.86 ERA (4er, 9.1ip) with 13 strikeouts at Triple-A.

LEFT ON READ: Harrison has limited lefties to a .171/.284/.232 slash line this year with three extra-base hits and no home runs… he has a 36.8 strikeout rate of lefties faced this season compared to 35.0% of righties, and has a 10.5 walk rate vs. lefties compared to 19.0% vs.
righties.

JOINING THE PARTY: The lefty will be the Giants’ third draft pick from the 2020 draft to make his debut, joining C Patrick Bailey and IF Casey Schmitt…other players from the draft are LHP Nick Swiney (Triple-A), IF Jimmy Glowenke (Double-A), RHP R.J. Dabovich (Triple-A) and RHP Ryan Murphy (Double-A).

HE’S NOT ALONE: When he officially debuts, Harrison would be the 11th Giants player to make his MLB debut this season, and fourth pitcher…he will be the first Giants pitcher to start in his MLB debut since RHP Logan Webb on August 17, 2019 at Arizona…he’ll be the youngest (22 years, 10 days) since LHP Madison Bumgarner started in his MLB debut on September 8, 2009 vs. San Diego at 20 years, 38 days.

YOUNG’N: Furthermore, he’s the youngest Giant to start any game since Bumgarner started games for the Giants in 2011 as a 21 and eventually a 22-year old.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #125 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the San Francisco Giants, 10-4, as they opened up a nine-game home stand at Citizens Bank Park … Starter Aaron Nola (W, 11-8) went 7.0 innings and allowed 2 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts … The Phillies had 8 extra-base hits (2 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR) and 16 hits – everyone in the starting lineup had at least 1 hit.

FOURMULA FOR SUCCESS: The Phillies are 53-19 this season when they score at least four runs in a game (.736 win %) which includes a 29-6 mark here at CBP (.829 win %) … Since May 7, the Phillies are 23-3 at CBP when they score at least four runs (.885 win %) … Conversely, when held to three runs or fewer, the Phillies are 15-38 (.283 win %) which includes a 6-18 record at CBP (.250 win %).

BALL GO BOOM: The Phillies have hit an MLB-best 39 home runs in the month of August (next: ATL, 37 HR) … Philadelphia’s next home run would be their 40th and would mark only the 16th time in franchise history they have reached 40 home runs in a single month … Including tonight, the Phillies have 8 games remaining in August and they are averaging 2.05 home runs per game this month … The club record for home runs in a single month is 46, set in Sept. of 2019.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies are 43-25 over their last 68 games (since 6/3) and their .632 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (47-20, .701 win %) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 67-52 with a .563 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.632) and LAD (.612) and 8th in MLB.

LEADING MAN: Since Kyle Schwarber was put back into the leadoff spot on June 2, he has posted an .808 OPS with 48 runs, 20 HR, 53 RBI and 54 walks, and the Phillies are 43-26 (.623 win %) while averaging 5.2 runs per game (362 R, 69 G) … Since June 2, there are two players in MLB with 20+ home runs and 50+ walks: Schwarber and LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (28 HR, 53 BB) … Schwarber has already set a career high in walks this season with 94 (previous: 86 in 2022) and he ranks 2nd in MLB in both walks and walk rate (16.9 %) behind only Juan Soto (106 BB, 19.2%).

TREA DAY: Over his last 16 games (since 8/4), Trea Turner is slashing .365/.403/.651 with a 1.054 OPS, 10 R, 6 2B, 4 HR, 12 RBI and 4 BB … Over his last 43 games at CBP (186 PA, since 5/6), Turner is slashing .298/.355/.503 (.858 OPS) with 26 runs scored, 20 extra-base hits (12 2B, 3B, 7 HR), 27 RBI, 13 walks and 9 stolen bases … Saturday at WSH, Turner became the first MLB player in history to hit two home runs in one inning off the same relief pitcher – Turner hit two home runs in the 8th inning off WSH reliever Cory Abbott … Turner became just the third Phillies player to ever homer twice in the same inning as he joined Von Hayes (6/11/1985 vs NYM, 1st inn.) and Andy Seminick (6/2/1949 vs CIN, 8th inn.)

RISP AND REWARD: Since July 1, the Phillies are batting .298 (112-376) with RISP and their .298 AVG in that span ranks 3rd in MLB – their .374 OBP, .505 SLG and .879 OPS also rank 3rd … Overall, the Phillies rank 11th in MLB this year with a .260 AVG with RISP, however, from the start of the season through June, the Phillies ranked 25th with a .239 AVG with RISP … Since July 1, the Phillies have five qualified players with an OPS over .800 with RISP: Kyle Schwarber (1.152), Alec Bohm (1.074), Bryson Stott (.965), Johan Rojas (.896) and Nick Castellanos (.885).

BEDLAM AT THE BANK: In the midst of a nine-game homestand, the Phillies are 35-24 this season at CBP with a .593 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League, behind only LAD (.672) and ATL (.656) and 6th in MLB … Philadelphia is averaging 39,026 in attendance per opening (DH on 8/8 was single admission) which ranks 6th in MLB behind LAD (47,879), NYY (40,987), STL (40,542), SD (40,487) and ATL (39,577) … The Phillies have the largest year-to-year jump in attendance per opening of any club in MLB this season at +10,619 (next: CLE, 6,968), which is up from 28,407 per opening at this point in 2022 … The Phillies have drawn a total of 2,263,517 so far this season and will surpass their total of 2,276,736 last season tonight, in their 60th home game of the season.

PENCIL HIM IN FOR GOLD GLOVE: Second baseman Bryson Stott has moved into the top 7 among all players in baseball with 11 Outs Above Average this season which ranks 2nd among all National League second baseman, trailing only SF’s Thairo Estrada (13 OAA) … Stott (1002.1) has the edge on Estrada (544.0) in innings as well as Defensive Runs Saved (Stott has 7 DRS, Estrada has 1 DRS).

GLOVE AT FIRST SIGHT: Using Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the Phillies have the third-best defense up the middle in MLB this season … The Phillies have gotten 25 OAA from the following three positions combined: second base, shortstop and center field … Their 25 OAA from those three positions rank 3rd in MLB and trails only Kansas City (32 OAA) and CHI (26 OAA).

ON THE PLUS SIDE: The Phillies currently have six different players who qualify for the batting title who sport an OPS+ of 105 or greater (league average is 100): Bryce Harper (128 OPS+), Bryson Stott (112), Nick Castellanos (110), J.T. Realmuto (109), Alec Bohm (109) and Kyle Schwarber (106) – Brandon Marsh (124 OPS+) would make it seven, but does not yet qualify for the batting title after missing the last two weeks with a left knee contusion … Philadelphia’s six different players with an OPS+ of 105 or greater ranks T-2nd in MLB with the Dodgers (Betts, Freeman, Martinez, Muncy, Outman, Smith) and trails only Atlanta who has seven players (Acuna, Albies, Arcia, Olson, Ozuna, Riley, Rosario) … Only once in franchise history have the Phillies had six players with an OPS+ of 105 or better, and that was in 1892 when they had a franchise record seven.

HATS OFF TO YOU, THOMS: Since he was named manager on June 3, 2022, Rob Thomson has the Phillies 30 games over .500 at 133-103 with a .564 winning percentage that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.667), LAD (.654), HOU (.608), BAL (.591) and SEA (.585) … The Phillies are 70-43 under Thomson at CBP and their .619 winning % at home in that span ranks 4th in MLB behind only ATL (.709), LAD (.694) and TB (.643).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – TAIJUAN WALKER • RHP #99
2023: 13-5, 4.03 ERA Career: 67-55, 3.91 ERA

LAST START: 8/12 vs MIN: L, 5.0 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 2 SO … Walker vs Lopez … The Phillies fell to the Minnesota Twins, 8-1, on Toyota Wall-of-Fame Night at CBP … Trea Turner reached base 4 times and scored the Phils’ only run as they went 0-for-10 with RISP on the night … Matt Strahm (3 SO) and Jeff Hoffman (2 SO) both made scoreless appearances in relief of Walker

TONIGHT’S START:

  • Homebody: This season, Walker has posted a 3.11 ERA (23 ER, 66.2 IP) at CBP … His home ERA is 10th in the NL (min. 10 starts) and it’s currently the best home ERA he’s had in any season of his career (min. 10 starts) … He is also tied for 6th in the NL for wins at home • All I Do Is Win: On 8/6, Walker earned his 13th win of the season, which is tied for 2nd in the ML … He was the first ML pitcher this year to reach 12 wins … Walker is the first Phillies starter to earn at least 13 wins in his first 23 starts of the season since Cole Hamels did so in 2012 … From 6/6-8/6, he earned a win in 9 of his 11 starts, making him the first Phillies starter to earn at least 9 wins in an 11-game span since Roy Halladay (9/10/10-5/5/11) … It is the first time in his career he has recorded double-digit victories in consecutive seasons … Walker went 5-0 at CBP to start the year (8 games) and was the 1st starter since Zack Wheeler (2020-21) to begin ones Phillies career without a loss in their first 8+ starts at home; Wheeler was 7-0 through his first 13 starts at home for the Phillies
  • 2 or Fewer: Walker has had 13 starts this year in which he’s allowed 2 or fewer ER … Walker is 10-0 in those starts and the Phillies are 12- 1 … He has accomplished this in his 8 of his last 12 outings, allowing just 23 ER in that span
  • Quality Control: On 7/31, Walker earned his 10th quality start of the season … It is the 5th season in his career in which he earned 10 or more quality starts and the 3rd season in a row … The Phillies are 1 of 10 teams to have at least 3 pitchers with 10 or more quality starts • Hold On: Walker’s 4 pickoffs in 2023 are tied with 5 others for 4th in MLB … His 22 successful pickoff attempts since the start of the 2015 season are 7th-most among active ML pitchers in that span and 3rd-most among active righties
  • Much Better: Walker has used his splitter 33.5% of the time in 2023, the highest rate of his career (previous: 27.6% in 2022) … 51 of his 106 strikeouts have come via the splitter
  • Pitch Usage: Splitter (33.5%), Sinker (24.5%), Cutter (17.3%), 4-Seam Fastball (16.7%), Curveball (4.7%), Sweeper (3.3%)
  • vs NL West: 14-11, 3.66 ERA (82 ER, 201.2 IP) in 37 starts

HOME:

  • 2023: 6-2, 3.11 ERA (23 ER, 66.2 IP) in 12 starts
  • Career: 30-23, 3.72 ERA (210 ER, 508.0 IP) in 92 games (90 starts)

2023 SEASON:

  • Registered a career-high 7-game winning streak from 6/6-7/15 and became the 9th Phillie in the modern era (since 1901) to win at least 7 straight starts in a single season (last, Cliff Lee, 7/30-9/5/11)
  • His 1.50 ERA in June was 6th-lowest among starters for the month, while he was the only ML pitcher to tally 5 wins. He is the 1st Phillies pitcher since Zach Eflin (5 in 2018) with 5 wins in the month of June
  • Allowed 1 run or less in a career-high 5 straight starts from 6/6-29. Tossed consecutive scoreless starts of at least 5.0 IP on 6/6 and 6/11 for the 1st time in his career
  • Threw a career-high 14.0 scoreless innings from 6/6-16, surpassing 2 scoreless 13.0-inning stretches from 7/4-16/22 and 6/26-7/7/15 … Completed 8.0 innings on 6/16 for the 1st time since 4/27/17 vs SD while with ARI
  • Made his Phillies debut on 4/3 at NYY after signing a 4-year contract with the club in December
  • Pitched for Team Mexico in the 2023 WBC, making 1 start in Pool Play against Great Britain … He threw 4.0 scoreless IP with 2 baserunners allowed and recorded 8 of his 12 outs via strikeout
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