Thursday, March 28, 2024
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MLB Preview: Cleveland Guardians (25-31) at Minnesota Twins (30-27)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

GUARDS LOSE LEAD, FALL IN SERIES OPENER
The Guardians opened a 4-game weekend set in the Twin Cities with a heart-breaking 7-6 walk-off loss to the Minnesota Twins on Thursday night at Target Field…marked the sixth time that Cleveland has been walked off in a road loss this season.

Willi Castro ended the contest with a 9th-inning sac fly after the Twins started the frame by loading the bases against ELI MORGAN with a lead-off walk, double and intentional walk…the ending rubber-stamped an unwelcome change of fortune after Cleveland rallied for 5 runs in the 6th to erase a 3-1 deficit with the help of a lead-off walk by MYLES STRAW and 6 singles; JOSÉ RAMÍREZ and JOSH BELL each drove in a run with 2 of those knocks, while MIKE ZUNINO’s single brought home a pair…ANDRES GIMENEZ also had a run-scoring groundout during the big rally after doubling to lead off the 2nd inning, which set the table for WILL BRENNAN’s RBI-single to give Cleveland an early 1-0 lead…TANNER BIBEE (5.0IP, 6H, 3R-ER, BB, 6SO, HR, HB, 96 pitches) retired 8 straight Twins to start his outing before running into trouble in the 4th, as a lead-off walk and one-out HBP allowed for a Max Kepler RBIsingle…Michael Taylor led off the 5th with a solo shot off Bibee, while Christian Vazquez later doubled and scored on Alex Kirilloff’s RBI-single.

Cleveland (25-31) sits in 3rd place in AL Central standings, 4.5 games behind 1st-place Minnesota (30-27) and 2.5 games behind 2nd-place Detroit (-2.5G, 26-28)…despite winning 4 of 7 and 5 of last 10 games, Guardians have dropped 25 of last 41 overall since starting year 9-6…Cleveland is 2-2 on this 7-game road trip through Baltimore (2-1) & Minnesota (0-1, three-to-play); club has dropped 5 of 7 and 11 of last 15 road games (12-17 overall).

HEATING UP THE BATS
Dating back to May 26 vs. St. Louis, Cleveland’s offense has scored 4+ runs in 6 of 7 games and tallied 7+ hits in each of their last 7 games…the Guards last recorded 7+ hits in 7 consecutive games 9/12-9/17/2022, a streak that lasted 16 total games, dating back to 9/2/2022…since May 26, the Guardians lead MLB with 48 singles…their 72 hits rank T1st in MLB with Cincinnati and 9 go-ahead RBI rank T1st in MLB with Los Angeles-NL and Miami…their 21 doubles rank 2nd in MLB behind the Reds’ 22…their 37 runs in the last 7 days rank 2nd in the AL behind Houston’s 38 and 5th in MLB…as a club, the Guards are hitting .286 since May 26, ranking 2nd in the AL behind Texas (.292) and 6th in MLB.

Since May 26, JOSH BELL’s 3 go-ahead RBI rank T1st in the AL/T2nd in MLB…JOSÉ RAMÍREZ ranks T1st in the AL/T2nd in MLB with 4 doubles and T2nd in the AL/T5th in MLB with 11 hits in the span…JOSH NAYLOR ranks T2nd in the AL/T4th in MLB with 8 RBI and T4th in the AL/T8th in MLB with a .450 batting average (min. 15 AB) in the last week of play…STEVEN KWAN’s 8 singles since May 26 rank T3rd in the AL/T5th in MLB.

THE GUARDIAC KIDS
The Guardians lead MLB with 26 one-run games out of their 56 games played this season, owning an 11-15 record in such contests…the Guards 11 victories rank T2nd in MLB behind Miami’s 16 such wins…Cleveland’s 26 one-run contests are T2nd-most in club history through the first 56 games of a season, the most since 1966 when they went 18-8 over 26 one-run contests…last season, the Guards finished 28-17 (.622) in one-run games, holding the 4th-best win percentage in MLB…the Guardians are the first MLB team with 26 one-run contests in their first 56 games since the 2015 Seattle Mariners (14-12, .538).

MOST CLE ONE-RUN GAMES IN FIRST 56G
YEAR COUNT RECORD (W%)
1910 27 14-8-5 (.611)
2023 26 11-15 (.423)
1966 26 18-8 (.692)
1944 26 15-11 (.577)
1918 26 14-12 (.538)

The Guards also lead MLB this season with 37 games decided by 2-runs-or-less, holding an 18-19 record…Cleveland has the most games decided by 2-runs-or-less in the first 56 games of a season since the 2015 Seattle Mariners (18-22)…the Guards finished last season with a 43-30 (.589) record in games decided by 2-runs-orless, holding the 5th-best win percentage in MLB…the Guardians 37 contests decided by 2-runs-or-less are tied for the most through the first 56 games of a season in franchise history.

MOST CLE 2-RUNS-OR-LESS GAMES IN FIRST 56G
YEAR COUNT RECORD (W%)
2023 37 18-19 (.486)
1968 37 19-17-1 (.527)
1944 37 18-19 (.486)
1910 37 19-13-5 (.581)
1943 36 18-18 (.500)

RAMÍREZ RE-WRITING RECORD BOOKS » JOSÉ RAMÍREZ enters today needing one extra-base hit to pass Ken Keltner (538) for 5th-most extra-base hits in Cleveland history…since 2018, Ramírez leads all MLB hitters with 349 extra-base hits…he has 198 career home runs as a Clevelander, and is 3 homers away from passing Travis Hafner (200) for 9th-most in club history…with 171 go-ahead RBI, he is two go-ahead RBI away from passing Carlos Santana (172) for 9th-most in franchise history… since 2018, his 124 go-ahead RBI leads all MLB hitters…with 305 career doubles, he needs a pair of two-baggers to pass Keltner (306) for 6th-most in Cleveland history…with his 88th career 3-hit outing on Wednesday at Baltimore, he needs 2 more 3-hit games to pass Carlos Baerga, Joe Jackson and Joe Vosmik (89) for 15th-most 3-hit games in a Cleveland uniform.

TITO TERRIFIC
Terry Francona currently owns a career record of 1,899-1,617, putting him at T15th all-time in manager wins (Elias)…with his next victory, he will pass Hall-of-Famer Bill McKechnie (1,899-1,724) for 15th-most wins in MLB history and become the 15th manager ever to reach 1,900 wins…with 3 more victories, he will pass Gene Mauch (1,901-2,037) for 14th-most wins…among active managers, he ranks 3rd, behind TEX’s Bruce Bochy (2,038-2,049) and HOU’s Dusty Baker (2,126-1,813).

Francona spent four years in Philadelphia from 1997-2000, going 285-363…he spent eight seasons with Boston, winning 2 World Series and owning a 744-552 record while boasting all but two seasons with 90+ wins…in his 11 years with Cleveland, he has gone 870-702, winning 4 AL Central titles and reaching the World Series in 2016.

TONIGHT’S STARTER – 43 AARON CIVALE RHP

CIVALE ON THE ROAD
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 1-0 0.00 1 1 7.0 2 0 0 1 3
Career 12-10 3.82 35 35 200.1 174 88 85 45 158

CIVALE’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 1-1 2.84 2 2 12.2 11 4 4 2 8
Career 25-22 4.04 65 65 365.2 338 175 164 87 320

TONIGHT’S START
The 27-year old right-hander is making his first start after missing 48 games on the injured list due to a strained left oblique…marks his second start on the road…has made 2 starts this season, both against Seattle, combining for 4 earned runs over 12.2 innings (2.84 ERA) with 8 strikeouts and 2 walks…made 3 rehab starts at Triple-A Columbus, working up to 88 pitches in his most recent outing on May 28 vs. Indianapolis.

LAST TIME OUT
He toed the rubber on Sunday in his third rehab start at Triple-A Columbus…worked 4.2 innings, allowing 4R/ER on 6 hits with 7 strikeouts and 3 walks…threw 88 pitches, 54 for strikes…made 3 total starts on his rehab assignment, throwing 32 pitches in his first outing and 69 in his second…across his 3 starts, he finished with a 4.91 ERA (6ER/11.0IP) with 16 strikeouts and 4 walks.

His last Major League start came on April 7 in a 5-3 defeat to Seattle at Progressive Field…he suffered the loss, allowing 4R/ ER on 9 hits with 5 strikeouts and one walk…despite allowing one baserunner in each of the first 4.0 frames, he did not give up a run over that stretch…Cooper Hummel opened up the 5th frame with a single and scored on an RBI-double from J.P. Crawford… Ty France drove in Crawford with an RBI-single two batters later… Jarred Kelenic doubled with one out in the 6th frame and scored on Crawford’s 2nd RBI-double of the day…Civale was pulled following the double but was charged with the run after Julio Rodríguez drove in Kelenic with a 2-run home run.

Civale opened up his season with a 7.0-inning shutout performance at Seattle on April 1 (7.0IP, 2H, 0R/ER, 1BB, 3SO, 80 pitches)…induced 12 ground balls in the start, his most since April 27, 2021 vs. Minnesota (16)…Civale became the first pitcher to work 7.0-or-more scoreless innings with 80-or-fewer pitches since Carlos Carrasco on August 16, 2014 (79 pitches).

HANGING OUT BY THE LAKE
Will be making his 9th career start against Minnesota…holds a 1-4 record with a 4.20 ERA (21ER/45.0IP), 48 strikeouts and 8 walks in his previous 8 starts…his last start against the Twins came on June 21, 2022, a 6-5 win at Target Field…he did not factor into the decision, allowing 2R/ER on 5 hits across 5.0 innings with 7 strikeouts and one walk…he’s 0-2 with a 4.39 ERA (13ER/26.2IP) in 5 career starts at Target Field…does not have a win against Minnesota since April 27, 2021, going 0-2 in 3 starts since.

In 34 career starts against the AL Central, he’s 14-8 with a 3.58 ERA (76ER/191.0IP), holding opposing hitters to a .232 average (166-715)…went 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA (20ER/54.1IP) across 11 starts…logged 5 quality starts and held opposing batters to a .217 batting average (45-for-207)…finished the season by winning 2 straight starts against the Kansas City Royals on September 30 and October 5.

THE ARSENAL
Has utilized 4 different pitches through his first two starts this season, using his cutter almost 50% of the time…opposing hitters are 0-for-11 in at-bats ending with his curveball…has thrown both his sinker and 4-seam fastball about 15% of the time.

The curveball was his putaway pitch in 2022 with batters hitting .124 (13-for-105) with 58 strikeouts in 105 at-bats ending with the curve…the pitch averaged 65.8 inches of drop (11 more inches than average), finishing in the 95th percentile of spin rate (Baseball Savant)…2 of his 8 strikeouts in 2023 have come via the curveball.

CIVALE’S PITCH ARSENAL, 2023
Pitch Type % MPH SO Opp BA
Cutter 48.6 87.0 4 .308
Curveball 19.7 77.0 2 .000
Sinker 15.8 91.6 2 .333
4-seam Fastball 14.8 91.1 0 .000

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: After completing their short three-game road-trip in Houston with a record of 2-1, the Twins began their quick four-game homestand against the Guardians with a walk-off victory last night…tonight, they will play the second of four against Cleveland and complete the series on Sunday afternoon…after this series, the Twins will travel to St. Petersburg to enjoy an off-day on Monday, then begin a six-game road-trip with three at Tampa Bay from June 6-8, then three at Toronto from June 9-11.

TWINS FLIP 2022 SCRIPT ON GUARDIANS: The Twins beat the Guardians last night at Target Field by a score of 7-6 in walk-off fashion as Willi Castro recorded his first career walk-off with a sac fly…Pablo López was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing six runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings pitched…Cleveland scored five runs off López on six hits in the top of the sixth, all on singles…the offense recorded 10 hits as Christian Vázquez and Donovan Solano each had two…Michael A. Taylor hit his seventh home run of the season and Royce Lewis hit his second, a game-tying two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth…the Twins loaded the bases in the bottom of the ninth as Castro drove in Ryan Jeffers, the fourth walk-off win for the Twins this season.

QUICK BREAK FROM TED LASSO: The Twins are playing on Apple TV+ tonight which will mark the third time for the Twins on that platform this season…their other two came on May 5 at Cleveland, a 2-0 victory over the Guards; and May 12 vs. Chicago-NL, a 6-2 loss to the Cubs.

The Twins next Apple TV+ game will be on July 7 vs. Baltimore.

ON GUARD: The Twins are playing the Guardians for the fifth of 13 times in 2023…the Twins are 2-2 vs. the Guards this season, going1-2 at Progressive Field from May 5-7 and 1-0 at Target Field.

Since the start of 2022, 18 of the 23 games have been decided by three runs-or-less and 11 by one run.

Last night’s win snapped a three-game losing streak to the Guards at Target Field…the Twins are just 2-5 in their last seven at Target Field vs. Cleveland, but are 15-11 here since the start of 2020.

The Twins have hit 60 home runs against Cleveland pitching since the start of 2021, their most vs. any opponent in that span…next is Kansas City (56) and Chicago-AL (55).

Since 2019, Carlos Correa is hitting .304 (38-for-125) with four doubles, nine home runs, 17 RBI, 21 runs scored, 14 walks, a .379 on-base percentage and a .931 OPS in 33 games vs. Cleveland…however, he is just 1-for-15 this season with no walks and one home run (off Stephan on May 6).

Since 2016, Max Kepler’s 22 home runs vs. Cleveland lead baseball (chart in right margin).

YOU DONE MESSED UP A-A-RON!: Lifetime notable numbers vs. Aaron Civale: Alex Kirilloff has three hits in five at-bats (.600), including one double and three RBI…Max Kepler has six hits in 17 at-bats (.353), including two doubles, one RBI and two walks.

The Twins have dealt Civale four losses (1 win) in eight career starts, including seven home runs and 42 hits…four losses are Civale’s most vs. any opponent.

CENTRAL OF ATTENTION: The Twins have gone 11-6 against the AL central this season, going 2-2 vs. the Guardians, 6-1 vs. the Royals and 3-3 vs. the White Sox…below are the Twins pitching numbers compared to other AL divisions/NL:

W-L ERA BAA K/BB K/9.0 WHIP OPS
CENTRAL 11-6 2.73 .196 2.76 8.8 1.07 .571
EAST 6-7 4.32 .249 3.90 9.5 1.24 .722
WEST 5-4 3.60 .229 4.50 11.1 1.13 .662
NATIONAL 8-10 3.57 .232 2.95 10.2 1.25 .687

BEASTIE ROYCE: Since returning from rehab assignment (right ACL surgery) and being rein- stated from the 60-day IL on May 29, Royce Lewis has hit safely in all three games played, hitting .308 (4-for-13) with one double, two home runs, six RBI and a 1.154 OPS…between his rehab stops at Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul, and Minnesota, he has hit .327 (17-for-52) with three doubles, six home runs, 17 RBI, a .731 slugging percentage and a 1.106 OPS in 13 games…that includes a six-game hitting streak (3 with St. Paul, 3 with Minnesota).

He is hitting .375 (3-for-8) with three extra-base hits off fastballs for Minnesota this season.

AK’S PAs AND ABs: Alex Kirilloff has reached base safely in 13 of his last 19 plate appearances and in 18 of his last 28 PAs…in his last six games he has posted a .643 on-base percentage, drawing nine walks and recording eight hits (1 HBP)…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 5, Kirilloff has hit .315 (23-for-73) with three doubles, three home runs, nine RBI, 16 walks, a .457 on-base percentage and a .936 OPS in 24 games…among players with at least 75 PAs this season, his .457 OBP leads all of baseball.

He is hitting .405 (17-for-42) with four extra-base hits off fastballs this season.

LAND OF 10,000 RAKES: Since May 1, the Twins have homered 38 times, the fourth most in the AL since that date…on the season, they have homered 76 times, tied with two other teams for the sixth most in baseball…42 of their home runs have come at home.

ON THIS DAY IN TWINS HISTORY: In 1986, Rod Carew announced his retirement from baseball at the age of 40…Carew retired with a .328 career batting average, compiled over 19 major league seasons…he was inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1991.

GRACIAS, BIG SEXY: Former Minnesota and Cleveland pitcher Bartolo Colón officially announced his retirement today…the 50-year-old made 15 starts for the Twins in 2017, going 5-6, 5.18 ERA (80.0 IP, 46 ER), including a complete game on August 4, 2017 vs. Texas at the age of 44.

STARTING PITCHER – BAILEY OBER 17
2023: 3-2, 2.68 ERA CAREER: 8-8, 3.58 ERA

Making his eight start of the season and sixth home start; tied with Sonny Gray and Pablo López for the most home starts on the Twins staff this season…also his 39th career start and appearance.

Facing the Guardians for the second time this season, fifth time in his career…is 1-1, 1.64 ERA (22.0 IP, 4 ER) with two walks and 18 strikeouts in his four previous starts.

Began season with Triple-A St. Paul and was recalled when Kenta Maeda landed on the IL on April 29…since being inserted into the rotation, the Twins have gone 4-3 in his seven starts.

Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft out of the College of Charleston.

LAST START: Took his second loss of the season in a 3-0 Twins defeat in the finale of the three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field on May 28; marked the first time in his career he has lost consecutive starts…pitched 5.0 innings and allowed two runs on five hits, with one walk and seven strikeouts…tied his previous start on May 22 vs. San Francisco for his shortest outing of the year…his seven strikeouts marked a season-high and the most strikeouts he has recorded since he struck out a career-high 10 batters on September 27, 2022 vs. Chicago-AL…allowed both runs in the second inning on a two-RBI single to catcher Alejandro Kirk…relieved by Griffin Jax in the sixth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 innings, allowing one run (an RBI single by Bo Bichette off José De León in the eighth inning)…the Twins were shut out at Target Field for the first time this season and the fourth time overall (also, May 7 at Cleveland, April 16 at New York-AL, April 4 at Miami).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took his first loss of the season in a 4-1 Twins defeat in the opener of the three-game series against the San Francisco Giants at Target Field on May 22, opposite John Brebbia… pitched 5.0 innings and allowed four runs on three hits, with three walks and two strikeouts…recorded his shortest outing of the season and fewest strikeouts since June 22, 2021 vs. Cincinnati when he struck out two batters…allowed all four runs in the first inning via an RBI double by designated hitter J.D. Davis and a three-run home run by outfielder Michael Conforto…marked the most runs he has allowed in the first inning in his career; also walked three batters in the first, marking the most walks he has issued in an inning…relieved by Emilio Pagán in the sixth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 scoreless innings…the Twins offense struck out a season-high 16 times…the only run the Twins scored came from a solo home run by outfielder Kyle Garlick in the eighth inning.

Marked his first loss at Target Field since August 17, 2021 vs. Cleveland (6.0 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K); snapped a four-game win streak at Target Field, dating back to September 24, 2021, going 4-0, 2.89 ERA (46.2 IP, 15 ER) with 11 walks and 50 strikeouts in the nine-game span.

OBER VS. CLEVELAND: Facing the Guardians for the second time this season and fifth time in his career; is 1-1, 1.64 ERA (22.0 IP, 4 ER) with two walks and 18 strikeouts in four previous starts…last faced Cleveland on May 5 at Progressive Field for his first road start of the season…earned the win; pitched 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed three hits, with one walk and six strikeouts, opposite Peyton Battenfield…relieved by Jorge López in the eighth inning and combined with Jhoan Duran to complete the shutout…the Twins won 2-0, highlighted by a Max Kepler home run…also were on Apple TV+.

Ranks third for the lowest ERA against the Guardians since 2021 (min 20.0 IP), trailing Eduardo Rodriguez (1.23) and Devin Smeltzer (1.29).

Making his first start against the Guardians at Target Field since August 17, 2021 (L, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 HR, 3K).

NO PLACE LIKE HOME: Ober is making his third-consecutive and sixth overall home start of the season, 21st of his career…in five home starts this season, Ober is 1-2, 3.62 ERA (27.1 IP, 11 ER) ith nine walks and 25 strikeouts…all home runs he has allowed this season have been at target Field…is 5-3, 3.81 ERA (99.1 IP, 42 ER) with 26 walks and 102 strikeouts in 20 career home starts… Twins have gone 12-8 in his home starts.

Holds a .212 opponent batting average at home this season, 19th lowest among American League pitchers (min 25.0 IP).

Ranks third for the most strikeouts in their first 20 home games in Twins history (min 95.0 IP), fourth in lowest ERA and lowest walks issued.

Owns the second-most earned runs allowed at Target Field this season (min 25.0 IP), trailing Pablo López (24).

NO BATTER IS SAFE: Right-handed hitters are batting .209 (14-for-67) with 18 strikeouts and two walks against Ober after seven starts this season…left-handed hitters are hitting .205 (16-for-78) with 19 strikeouts and nine walks…in his career, right-handed hitters are batting .221/.242/.410 with 107 strikeouts against Ober…lefties are hitting .260/.325/.428 with 77 strikeouts off him.

Ranks 11th for the lowest batting average against lefties in the American League (min. 20 .0 IP).

ARSENAL: Ober has used a four-pitch mix in his seven starts of the 2023 season, per Baseball Savant…51.6 percent of pitches thrown in his last start were fastballs…also threw 30 sliders to right-handed batters…mostly uses his slider (122 pitches) against righties while relying on his changeup (115 pitches) and curveball (48 pitches) against lefties…here’s a look at his repertoire:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (91.5)…47.6% (303 pitches, 120/183) ………… .215 (14-for-65), 5 2B, 2 HR, 17 K
Changeup (83.8)…………..22.3% (142 pitches, 27/115) …………………….. .176 (6-for-34), 2 2B, 8 K
Slider (81.8)…………………21.8% (139 pitches, 122/17) …………… .222 (8-for-36), 3 2B, 1 HR, 10 K
Curveball (78.2)……………….8.3% (53 pitches, 5/48) ……………………….. .200 (2-for-10), 1 2B, 2 K.

Tied for 15th for the lowest opponent batting average against a curveball in the American League and 16th against a changeup, (min. 500 pitches).

ACROSS THE RIVER: In his four starts with Triple-A St. Paul this season, Ober went 2-1, 2.55 ERA (17.2 IP, 5 ER) with six walks and 22 strikeouts…in his last start with the Saints on April 18, earned the win in 6-0 St. Paul victory vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre…pitched 5.0 scoreless innings, allowed three hits, walked one batter and fanned six.,

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