Thursday, June 13, 2024
Wager-Tracker: All Sports Betting Log

MLB Preview: Texas Rangers (75-57) at New York Mets (60-73)


WINS AND LOSSES: Texas beat the Mets last night, 2-1, and club has a 3-5 record entering the finale of this 9-G, 10-day road trip thru ARI (0-2), MIN (1-3), and NYM (2-0 + tonight)… the Rangers have won 2 straight and 3 of 4, but are 3-9 in last 12 G, including a season-long 8-G losing streak from 8/16- 25…the 8-G skid was 2nd-longest for Texas since start of ’22 (0-9, 8/27-9/5/22)…club has 75 wins, most since 2019 (78)… team has dropped 10 of 15 and is 7-11 since a month-opening and season-best 8-G win streak (8/1-8), longest for club since going 10-0, 5/9-19/17…TEX is 15-11 (.560) in August (see separate note)…have gone 16-15 in last 31 G and 17- 18 in last 35 G since a 6-G win streak (7/14-19) out of the break…team is 23-18 (.561) in the 2nd “half”, 6th-best record in the A.L…TEX is 24-20 in last 44, 25-24 in last 49 G, and 26-26 in last 52 G…team was 12-19 over a 31-G span from 6/7-7/9 to end the 1st “half”…TEX is 70-53 last 123 G. At 75-57 (.568), TEX has T3rd-best record in the A.L. (BAL- .629, 83-49; TB-.609, 81-52; TEX/SEA-.568, 75-57) & T5thbest in MLB…75 wins rank T4th in the A.L., T6th-most in MLB (85-ATL, 83-BAL, 82-LAD, 81-TB, 76-HOU, 75-TEX/SEA). The 75-57 mark is T5th-best 132-G start to a season in Washington/Texas franchise history, best mark at this point since 2016 (78-54).

ON THE ROAD: TEX has won 3 times in a span of 4 road games for just the 2nd time since the start of July (also 4-1, 8/7-12)…club has won 3 of 4, but has lost 6 of 9, 10 of 17, 14 of 22, 16 of 25, 18 of 28, and 22 of last 36 away games… team has a 33-33 (.500) away record in ’23, 7th in the A.L… club began the year with a 19-11 road record, and has gone 14-22 (.389) beg. 5/31.

SERIES STUFF: Rangers have secured a series win here at Citi Field, ending span of 3 consecutive series losses…prior to those 3 straight series defeats, club had a 5-0-0 span from 8/1-16 that was 2nd-best streak in ’23 (6-0-0, 5/19-6/7)… club is 8-6-0 in series since break…the span follows a 2-6-1 stretch to end the 1st “half”…is now 25-16-2 overall in series in ’23: 13-6-2 at home; 12-10-0 on the road…on the road, team is 3-2-0 in last 5 series, but has dropped 7 of 10, now
4-8-0 in last 12 road series.

CLOSE WINS: The Rangers have won back-to-back games, each by a single run, for just the 2nd time all season (also 7/16-17)…club has not had a 3-0 span, each being a one-run win, since going 3-0 from 7/21-23/17 at TB…could match that feat with another one-run win tonight.

VS. NEW YORK-NL: The Rangers have secured back-to-back wins and a series win over the Mets for the 1st time ever…Rangers had been 0-5-2 all-time in series vs. NYM
prior to this week…TEX is 9-12 all-time vs. NYM…team’s 21 meetings w/ Mets are T2nd-fewest versus any of the other 29 MLB franchises: 15-STL, 21-NYM/CHC/WAS, 22-CIN/PIT… TEX is 6-7 here in Queens, 5-5 at Citi Field.

HEADED HOME: The Rangers are scheduled to fly back to the DFW Metroplex after tonight’s game…begin a 9-G, 10- day homestand on Friday vs. MIN, matching longest homestand of 2023 (also 9 G, 7/14-23 after AS break)…TEX has dropped 4 in a row in Arlington after a Globe Life Field record 9-G win streak there from 7/23-8/15…TEX is 42-24 (.636) at home this season, 2nd-best record in A.L. and 4th in MLB.

SHORTS: All 6 Texas runs in this series have scored in the 6th-or-later…last night’s strikeout for Aroldis Chapman (career 1136) broke a tie with Mariano Rivera (1135), as Chapman now has sole possession of 11th place on the all-time relief SO list…tonight marks 2nd time on this road trip to play a night game series finale ahead of a day off…the Rangers will be off on each of the next 2 Thursdays, this ahead of a season-ending span of playing games on 23 of the season’s final 24 days from 9/8-10/1 (lone off day 9/21).

TONIGHT’S STARTING PITCHER – #33 Dane Dunning, RHP (9-6, 3.36)
TONIGHT: The 28-year-old right-hander is scheduled to make his 29th appearance/21st start of the season in tonight’s road trip finale in Queens…has taken losses in each of his last 2 starts (0-2, 7.00 ERA) to raise his season ERA from 3.10 to 3.36, still 7th-lowest in A.L…is also 1-5, 4.65 ERA (26 ER/50.1 IP) over his last 9 games/starts to rise from 2.61…posted the 2 highest SO totals of his career over his 1st 3 starts in August (12 SO, 8/13 at SF; 11 SO, 8/2 vs. CWS), and ranks among A.L. qualifiers this month in SO (3rd, 39) and SO/9 (4th, 11.83)…will pitch on regular 4 days’ rest after suffering his 2nd loss in as many starts on Fri. at MIN (see ‘Last Start’)…has made 20 starts since joining the rotation on 5/5, going 7-6, 3.64 (47 ER/116.1 IP) with 36 BB/96 SO…has allowed just 14 HR this season, as 0.92 HR/9 figure is 6th-lowest in A.L…136.2 innings pitched this season are 2nd-most of his career (153.1 in 2022)…established career highs in many categories last season, ranking 2nd on the Texas staff in starts (29), innings (153.1), and strikeouts (137)…had season-ending surgery on 9/26/22 for a right hip labral repair, with the surgery performed by Dr. William Robertson in Arlington…is 18-24 with a 4.10 ERA (186 ER/407.2 IP) for the Rangers over the last 3 seasons (2021-23) since being acquired from the Chicago White Sox in a 3-player trade involving RHP Lance Lynn on 12/8/20…pitched 3 seasons at the University of Florida, helping the Gators to College World Series appearances in both 2015 and 2016…Texas has gone 10-10 over his 20 starts this season.

K-MART: Dunning posted the 2 highest strikeout totals of his career over his first 3 starts in August (12 SO, 8/13 at SF; 11 SO, 8/2 vs. CWS), and ranks among A.L. qualifiers this month in SO (3rd, 39) and SO/9 (4th, 11.83)…39 SO in August are already a single-month career high (prev. 30 SO in May 2022)…per Statcast, his 69 swing-and-miss strikes induced in August are also a career high for a single month (prev. 55 in June of 2022)…has struck out 39 of 126 (30.9%) batters faced this month, well above his season (19.0%) and career (20.8%) averages.

LAST START: Dunning suffered his 2nd loss in as many starts on Fri. at MIN (L, 4.0 IP, 5 H, 4 R-ER, 6 BB, 6 SO, 82 pitches/44 strikes), a 2-12 Rangers defeat…
issued a career-high 6 walks and threw just 44 of 82 (53.7%) pitches for strikes… all 4 runs allowed came with 2 outs in the 1st inning, which included 4 BB and a
bases-clearing, 3-run triple by Matt Wallner.

VS. NEW YORK-NL / INTERLEAGUE: Has never faced the Mets, and tonight’s start will be his 1st-ever appearance at Citi Field…NYM is one of just 3 MLB clubs Dunning has never pitched against (also MIA & SD)…has gone 2-4, 4.50 ERA (24 ER/48.0 IP) in 11 G/8 GS vs. N.L. clubs this season and owns a lifetime 5-5 record and 4.17 ERA (42 ER/90.2 IP) over 19 G/16 GS in Interleague play.

ON ROAD: Dunning is 3-4, 3.33 (26 ER/70.1 IP) in 15 G/11 GS on the road in ‘23, with the Rangers going 4-7 in his away starts…3.33 road ERA is 5th-lowest among A.L. qualifiers…has received just 23 runs in support on the road this season, as his 2.94 RSA in away outings is 3rd-lowest among MLB qualifiers (2.66-COL’s Kyle Freeland, lower 2.94-LAA’s Reid Detmers)…Dunning has seen far more success at home (16-7, 3.41 ERA in 47 G/42 GS) than on the road (4- 17, 4.58 ERA in 44 G/39 GS) throughout his career, as his lifetime .190 road win pct. is 7th-lowest in MLB history (min. 200.0 away innings) according to STATS LLC…his win on 5/10 at SEA ended a span in which he had gone winless in 27 consecutive road starts with CWS and TEX, the 2nd-longest winless road span as a starter in modern era behind only COL’s Scott Elarton (29 from 2001-05). AS A STARTER: Has gone 7-6, 3.64 (47 ER/116.1 IP) with 36 BB/96 SO in his 20 starts for Texas in 2023 (spanning his last 20 outings)…has logged at least 7.0 IP in 5 of his last 12 starts, and has pitched 5.0+ innings in 18 of 20 starts this season…no more than 3 ER allowed in 16 of 20 GS, as his 10 quality starts are 3rd-most on club (11-Eovaldi/Gray, 10-Dunning)…has exited 10 of 20 starts with the Rangers holding a lead…made 8 straight relief app. to open the year, but a majority of Dunning’s Major League appearances (81 of 91) have come as a starter…he owns a lifetime 18-24 record and 4.22 ERA (196 ER/418.1 IP) in those 81 career starts…Dunning’s 74 starts for TEX last 3 seasons (beg. 2021) are easily the most among Rangers in that span (2nd is 52 GS, Martín Pérez).

2023: Opponents have batted .243/.307/.376/.682 (124-511) w/ 38 XBH (14 HR, 22 2B, 2 3B), incl. splits of .270 BA/.775 OPS vs. LHB and .219 BA/.603 OPS vs. RHB…10th-lowest opp. OPS vs. RHB in A.L…opp. BA by time thru the order: 1st (.225), 2nd (.253), 3rd (.252, 28-111), 4th (.400, 2-5)…20.1 relief innings still rank 9th for TEX…allowed no BB w/ career-high 12 SO on 8/13 at SF, becoming the 8th pitcher (11th instance) in WSH/TEX franchise history to post 12+ SO/0 BB in a game (also Jon Gray, 6/7/23 vs. STL)…logged career-high 8.2 IP in start on 6/28 vs. DET (W, 8.2 IP, 2 R-ER, 0 BB, 10 SO)…Dunning (W, 4.1 SHO IP) joined Jacob deGrom (4.0 SHO IP) 4/17 at KC as just 2nd Rangers duo in the last 40 years (beg. 1984) to each have at least 4.0 SHO IP in same game.


METSCELLANEOUS: The Mets fell to the Rangers, 2-1, last night…New York has dropped four of their last five games…New York is looking to avoid its sixth sweep of the season…The Mets continue a 10-day, nine-game homestand (1-4) against the Angels (1-2), Rangers (0-2) and Mariners (three games).

DINGERS!: The Mets have socked 170 home runs this season…That is the fourth-most in the National League…The 2022 Mets hit 171 home runs.

INVADER NIM: Brandon Nimmo has hit a career-best 19 home runs this season…He is batting .283 (47-166) with 11 doubles, one triple, two home runs, 13 RBI, 12 walks with a .339 OBP against left-handed pitchers this year…His .283 average is the 11th-best in the majors by a left-handed hitter against fellow lefties.

LINSANITY: Over his last 61 games, Francisco Lindor is batting .296 (68-230) with 47 runs, 12 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs, 35 RBI, 28 walks, 17 steals with a .379 OBP, a .522 SLG and a .901 OPS…Lindor has stolen 23 bases in 131 games this season, exceeding his total from 2022 (16 steals in 161 games)…His career-best is 25 steals 158 games in 2018.

I DECLARE fWAR: Francisco Lindor ranks seventh in the majors and fourth in the National League with a 5.1 fWAR…Since he joined the Mets, Lindor has posted a 16.0 fWAR…Only Freddie Freeman (18.6) and Mookie Betts (17.9) have posted a higher mark in the Senior Circuit…His 16.0 fWAR since 2021 ranks fifth in the majors in that span.

OUCH: The Mets have been hit by 86 pitches this season…That is the second-most in the majors and the most in the National League…Since the start of last season, the Mets have been plunked 198 times, that’s 17 times more than the second-place team the Mariners…It’s 32 more times the next place team in the NL, the Cincinnati Reds who have been hit by 166 pitches in that span.

THIS IS ALMOST 40: Pete Alonso is third in the majors and second in the National League with 39 home runs…Alonso is one home run shy of recording his third season of 40 or more home runs…He socked 53 in 2019 and 40 last season…He is the only player in franchise history with multiple seasons of 40 or more home runs…Since he entered the league in 2019, only two other players have recorded multiple seasons with 40 or more home runs (Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout)… Only one
active player (Nelson Cruz, four) has more than three 40-HR seasons… Alonso’s 185 home runs since he entered the league in 2019 are the most in the major leagues…With one more long ball, he’ll become the fifth player in MLB history with three or more seasons with 40+ home runs in a player’s first five years…He would join Ralph Kiner (4), Ryan Howard (3), Albert Pujols (3) and Eddie Matthews (3).

2023 STATS: 0-2, 7.50 E R A

MAKIN’ IT MAJOR: Over seven appearances (two starts) this season with the Mets, Reyes is 0-2 with a 7.50 ERA (10 ER/12.0 IP)…Reyes began the season in the bullpen and did not allow a run over five appearances (6.1 IP)…Both of Reyes’ starts this season have come in the first game of a doubleheader against Atlanta…In his last start, August 12, Reyes established career-bests in innings pitched (4.2), strikeouts (4) and pitches (109)…His previous career-high for most pitches in a game was 61 on May 28, 2022.

SLINGIN’ IT IN SYRACUSE: In 17 appearances (15 starts) with Triple-A Syracuse, Reyes is 1-2 with a 5.80 ERA (49 ER/76.0 IP)…Over his past four starts with Syracuse, Reyes has tossed 6.0 or more innings…On August 5, 2023, Reyes allowed one run over a season-high 7.0 innings…The right-hander allowed three hits, issued two walks and recorded five strikeouts.

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