Saturday, May 4, 2024
Sports Gaming Monitor

MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (27-27) at San Francisco Giants (28-27)

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

THE PIRATES: Snapped their three-game losing streak with last night’s 2-1 win…Are 2-3 heading into the finale of their six-game road trip to Seattle and San Francisco…Are back at .500 after falling to 26-27 after Monday’s loss (the first time the team was under .500 since 4/2)…Won seven straight games from 4/17- 23, their longest winning streak since 2018 (11 games)…Are 1.0 game behind the front-running Brewers in the National League Central coming into today.

MITCH’S MAY: Mitch Keller takes the mound this afternoon in his sixth start of this month…Keller comes into today ranked sixth among all National League pitchers with a 2.45 ERA (33.0ip/9er) this month…The only five National League pitchers with a lower ERA this month are San Diego’s Michael Wacha (0.84), San Francisco’s Logan Webb (1.30), Atlanta’s Bryce Elder (1.72), St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas (1.89) and Los Angeles’ Tony Gonsolin (1.95).

K’S FOR KELLER: Mitch Keller comes into today four strikeouts shy of 400 in his career…Keller is averaging 11.14 strikeouts per 9.0 innings pitched this season, which ranks seventh in all of MLB and fourth in the National League behind Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (14.98), Cincinnati’s Hunter Greene (12.86), Washington’s MacKenzie Gore (11.48) and New York’s Kodai Senga (11.45).

THE EMERGENCE OF MITCH: One year ago today Mitch Keller rejoined the starting rotation after working out of the bullpen for two appearances…Beginning a year ago today, Keller has posted a 3.14 ERA (189.0ip/66er) in 33 starts…Keller’s 3.14 ERA in the last year is the ninth-lowest among all National League pitchers in that time… San Francisco’s Logan Webb has the lowest ERA (2.66) in that time among National League pitchers with at least 162.0 innings of work.

SOUTHPAW SIGHTING: Pittsburgh comes into today with an 8-6 record in games started by opposing lefthanders… Pittsburgh’s 14 games against left-handed starters are the fewest among all National League teams…The Yankees and Twins have faced the fewest opposing left-handed starters in the American League (10 times apiece).

BACK TO THE BURGH: The Pirates will return to Pittsburgh following today’s game for their longest homestand of the year beginning Friday night…The 10-day, nine-game homestand gets underway Friday with a three-game weekend series against the Cardinals…Monday night the Pirates will host the A’s for the fourth time ever and for the first time since 2019…Following a day off on Thursday, the homestand will conclude with three games against the Mets beginning on June 9.

CUTCH’S MILESTONES: Andrew McCutchen is two doubles shy of 400 in his career and two away from 300 as a Pirate…McCutchen ranks seventh all-time in team history in doubles…Paul Waner ranks first with 559, followed by Honus Wagner (556), Roberto Clemente (440), Willie Stargell (423), Max Carey (375) and Pie Traynor (371).

BULLISH PEN: Pittsburgh’s bullpen comes into today ranked third in the National League in ERA (3.79)…The only two teams with a lower bullpen ERA are the Padres (3.28) and Cardinals (3.54)…In addition, according to Baseball Reference, the Pirates are the only team with five or more relievers with ERAs of 2.25 and lower who have each pitched 18.0-plus innings.

MONEY IN MAY: Tuesday night Dauri Moreta earned his second win of the year with 1.0 scoreless inning while also stranding his inherited runner…Moreta has allowed two unearned runs in 13.0 innings, struck out 20 batters, and posted an .073 batting average against (3-for-41) in 11 appearances this month.

THE RENEGADE: Tuesday night David Bednar recorded his 10th save of the year and first since April 29 in game one of the team’s doubleheader at Washington…Since the beginning of last year, Bednar is 16-for-19 in save opportunities on the road while also producing a 2.04 ERA (35.1ip/8er) in 31 appearances away from PNC Park.

STARTING PITCHER – 23 – RHP MITCH KELLER
MITCH KELLER: The 27-year-old righthander will make his 12th start of the season this afternoon…He allowed a season-high six runs in 6.0 innings but improved to 6-1 on the season in his last start Friday night at Seattle.

VS. SAN FRANCISCO: 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA (16.0ip/8er) in three career starts…Had a no-decision (6.0ip/2r/1er) last year in a 4-3 walkoff win on 6/19 at PNC Park…Made one start in 2021, losing a 4-1 decision (5.0ip+/2er) to Alex Wood on 5/16 at PNC Park…He also gave up three runs in the first inning and a two-run homer to Steven Vogt with two outs in the fifth inning while suffering a 5-4 loss on 9/10/19 at Oracle Park.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: After dropping yesterday’s game 2-1 the Giants will try to earn their fifth straight series victory with a win in today’s finale…the last time the Giants were on the losing end of a series was May 11-14 at Arizona when they lost three of four to the D-Backs…SF is 13-15 in day games this season while Pittsburgh is 11-14.

CLEANUP DUTIES: Sports Info Solutions points out that Pittsburgh starter RHP Mitch Keller has limited opposing teams’ cleanup hitters this year, holding the fourth batter to a .059 average (2×34) with 17 strikeouts and a .147 OPS…Giants cleanup hitters have a .288 batting average (60×208), which is second in the Majors this season, and an .867 OPS, which is third.

FINDING THEIR STRIDE: After going 6-13 to begin the season, the Giants have logged a 22-14 (.611) mark since April 22… the .611 winning percentage is fifth-best in the Majors and second-best in the NL during that span behind only the Dodgers, who are 24-11 (.686) and lead the Majors in that stretch…if you narrow it down to just May, the Giants are 17-11 (.607) this month, sixth-best in MLB.

HOME COOKIN’: In that same April 22 time span, the Giants have gone a blistering 14-6 (.700) here at Oracle Park, including winning six of their last eight games…the Giants’ .700 winning percentage at home since April 22 is second-best in the National League only to the Dodgers .929 (13-1) clip in that time.

PEN TO PAPER: The Giants have won 11 of their last 15 games, a stretch that comes after dropping six of their previous eight contests…this excellent stretch is in part due to SF’s bullpen, who’s sporting a 0.80 ERA, best the Majors, and holding opposing teams to a .160 average, also first during that span… since May 15, the bullpen’s 84 strikeouts are the most of any bullpen in the Majors and their nine saves are tops in MLB.

Giants Bullpen, Last 15 Games Dating to May 15

Ranking

ERA 0.80 1st
Strikeouts 84 1st
Saves 9 1st
Opposing Avg. .160 1st

Ranking

WHIP 0.80 1st
OPS .478 1st
OBP .231 1st
Innings 67.2 2nd

HORSESHOES AND HAND GRENADES: The Giants dropped to 5-6 in one-run games this season after yesterday’s defeat… their 11 games decided by just one run are third-fewest in the Majors, trailing Houston (nine) and Texas (10)…the loss was also just the Giants’ fifth at home in May (9-5)…they are averaging 2.2 runs per home loss in May.

FREE RIDE, BUT NOT TO HOME: Per SIS, yesterday was the first time the Giants had at least seven walks with just one run to show for it…the last game was a 1-0 victory on Sept. 7, 2019 vs. Los Angeles-NL…IF J.D. Davis walked three times, his most in a game since Aug. 13, 2021.

CARELESS RISP-ER: SF could not take advantage of the seven walks by Pittsburgh, going 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position…great hitting with RISP has been a key reason why the Giants are 11-4 in their last 15 games…since May 15, SF’s .931 OPS with RISP ranks fifth in the Majors, while its 68 RBI lead MLB in that span.

WAKE AND BLAKE: Since April 25, C/OF Blake Sabol has an .836 OPS with eight extra-base hits and 10 RBI…in 17 home games the rookie is batting .340 (18×53)…in eight home day games, Sabol is batting .308 (8×26)…SIS notes that the Giants have a .763 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers when Sabol starts compared to their .694 OPS in games Sabol is on the bench.

CA-MAY-LO: RHP Camilo Doval converted an MLB-leading 11th save this month, and a National League-leading 14th on Saturday at the Brewers… his 11 May saves are tied for the third-most by a Giant in a single month, and the most since Brian Wilson also recorded 11 saves on Sept/Oct 2010.

Giants, Most Saves in Any Single Month – All Time
Player Month Year Saves
Robb Nen July 2000 14
Robb Nen June 2001 13
Rod Beck April/March 1997 11
Player Month Year Saves
Rod Beck July 1994 11
Camilo Doval May 2023 11
Brian Wilson Sept/Oct 2010 11

FOOL ME ONCE, CAN’T GET FOOLED AGAIN: OF Mike Yastrzemski has taken advantage of opposing starting pitchers when seeing them a second and/or third time in a game (SIS)…Yastrzemski is batting .194 (6×31) with a .641 OPS when seeing a starter for the first time…in his second plate appearance the outfielder is hitting .387 (12×31) with a 1.086 OPS, and in his third chance he is batting .316 (6×19) with a 1.034 OPS.

TODAY’S STARTER – ALEX WOOD LHP #57
2023 RECORD: 1-0, 3.51 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: In his third year with SF…signed a two-year, $25 million contract with San Francisco in the 2021-2022 offseason after a strong performance on a one-year deal in 2021.

LAST START: Earned his first win of the season after receiving a nine-run lead by the end of the 3rd inning…his five walks, which matched a career-high, were his most as a Giant…the only other game in his career where he walked five batters was April 10, 2017 at Chicago-NL (w/LAD)…he did not allow an extra-base hit, while forcing six ground outs compared to two fly outs…his last outing was also the first time this year he completed 5.0 innings.

HOME-WOOD BOUND: The Giants are 21-9 in Wood’s 30 starts at Oracle Park since he joined the organization…the southpaw has a 10-7 record with a 4.04 ERA (72er, 160.1ip) with 166 strikeouts and a 1.14 WHIP…in his last home start, Miami hit two home runs, scoring four runs on six hits across 4.1 innings.

VS. PIRATES: Wood has earned the win in three of his four starts vs. Pittsburgh since joining SF and the Giants as a team have won all four games he’s started vs. PIT…in his last outing vs. the Pirates (Aug. 14, 2022), Wood struck out nine, his most since Aug. 20, 2021 at Oakland…IF/OF Connor Joe has solid numbers against Wood, going 5-for-12 (.417) with a home run…OF Andrew McCutchen is 6-for-33 (.182) vs. Wood, with a home run and 10 strikeouts…McCutchen’s 10 strikeouts against Wood are tied for the most by any batter Wood has faced in his career (IF/OF Ian Desmond and IF Adam LaRoche are the others)…McCutchen’s .182 average is the third-lowest vs. Wood (min. 20 plate appearances).

BACK IN ACTION: the lefty has made three starts (four outings) since returning from a left hamstring strain sustained on April 18 at Miami…he had both a season-high 5.2 innings and 93 pitches in his last outing (May 26 at Milwaukee).

PITCH BY PITCH: Wood’s fastball has an impressive .176 xBA this year, which is his lowest on any pitch since 2015 (when Statcast data became available)…hitters hold a .308 (12×39) batting average against Wood’s slider, which is the highest mark in his career since he adopted the pitch in 2020, yet his .238 xBA on his slider is his second-best mark…his .160 opposing batting average (4×25) on his changeup is the lowest on any pitch in his career.

LEFT ON READ: The Pirates are middle of the pack against lefties this season, with their .737 OPS ranking 16th, and their .262 average ranking tied for 12th…since the start of last season, however, Pittsburgh is batting. 230 vs. lefties, which is tied with Oakland and Seattle for second worst in the Majors, and its .668 OPS ranks 26th.

GROUNDED: Wood has a 48.6% ground ball rate this season, which is closely in line with his 49.6% career mark…Pittsburgh ranks 13th in the Majors with a 43.0% offensive ground ball rate…when the Pirates do hit the ball in the air, it’s rarely leaving the yard as they have a 10.8% HR/FB…Wood has allowed three homers in 25.2 innings with a 10.0% HR/FB.

BY THE NUMBERS: Wood has been stingy in limiting the heart of opposing lineups this season…batters 3-6 are hitting .140 (6×43) with a .568 OPS against Wood in 2023…the top two hitters in the lineup have a much stronger .360 average (9×25) with a .949 OPS.

MAY FLOWERS OR SHOWERS: May has historically been Wood’s best month in terms of run prevention…his 3.32 career May ERA and 3.86 SO/BB are both monthly-bests…even with the strong ERA, Wood’s May opposing OPS is .722, which is his second-highest of any month…in his four May outings this season, Wood has allowed eight runs on 16 hits (three being home runs) in 15.2 innings (4.60 ERA).

PACING: One of the faster workers in the Majors last season, Wood has become a bit more average with the advent of the pitch clock this season…with the bases clear he’s averaging 13.3s (he was at 15.1s last year) between pitches…with runners on, he’s at 16.7s (was at 21.3s)…his rankings this year are 50th (bases clear) and 42nd (runners on)…last year Wood ranked 25th quickest (bases clear) and 60th quickest (runners on).

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