Monday, October 14, 2024
Sports Gaming Monitor

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (73-66) at Cleveland Guardians (66-73)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 4-1 through five games on their current six-game road-trip, going 2-1 in Texas, followed by consecutive wins in Cleveland over the last two nights…today, the Twins will complete the trip with the three-game series finale at Progressive Field…after today’s game, Minnesota will travel home to enjoy an off-day tomorrow, then begin their penultimate homestand of 2023 with three against the Mets this weekend, followed by three against the Rays next Monday-Wednesday…the Twins have gone 40-29 at home and 33-37 on the road. Since the All-Star break, the Twins have gone 28-20, the fourth-most wins in the AL, trailing Baltimore (33-16), Seattle (32-17) and Houston (29-20). The Twins are now seven games over .500, their high-water mark for 2023…the last time they were seven games over was through games of August 19, 2022, when they finished the day 62-55…the last time they were eight games over was July 24, 2022 (52-44).

DONNIE TURNS THE LIGHTS OFF AT PROGRESSIVE: The Twins beat the Guardians last night at Progressive Field by a score of 8-3…Sonny Gray was the starter but did not factor into the decision for the 15th time in 28 starts…Gray allowed three runs on six hits (1 HR) in 6.0 innings pitched, with two walks and four strikeouts…the offense recorded 11 hits and was led by Donovan Solano, who went 2-for-5 with a single, a triple and three RBI…Christian Vázquez added a home run, his sixth of the season…the win secured the Twins’ first series victory over Cleveland since May 13-15, 2022 (0-6-1 since).

INSIDE THE SERIES: Below are the offensive comparisons between the two teams through the first two games this series:

MINNESOTA STAT CLEVELAND
28……………………………………………………………..RUNS………………………………………………………………9
31………………………………………………………………HITS……………………………………………………………..20
1.191………………………………………………………….OPS…………………………………………………………. .834
14……………………………………………………. EXTRA-BASE HITS ……………………………………………………..6
13…………………………………………………………….WALKS……………………………………………………………..8
7…………………………………………………………..HOME RUNS………………………………………………………….2

TWINS AND GUARDS: The Twins are playing the Guardians for the 13th and final time in 2023…the Twins are 6-6 vs. the Guards this season, going 3-4 at Target Field and 3-2 at Progressive Field…the Twins have outscored the Guards 58-42 this season…they have outscored Cleveland 28-9 in this series. These two will meet 13 times in 2024, their first coming in the Twins’ Home Opener, a three-game, four-day series from April 4-7…the first series at Progressive will be three games from May 17-19. A win today would give the Twins the season-series victory for the first time since going 11-8 in 2021…they went 6-13 vs. Cleveland in 2022. Minnesota has homered 19 times against Cleveland pitching this season, the most in baseball against the Guardians (White Sox – 17). The Twins have hit 123 home runs against Cleveland pitching since the start of 2019, their most against any opponent in that span…of those 123 home runs, 66 have been hit at Progressive Field, the Twins’ most in any opposing ballpark in that stretch…66 homers are also the most for any opponent here since 2019 (next: Chicago-AL, Detroit and Kansas City – 41). Carlos Correa is hitting .302 (29-for-96) with seven home runs, a .374 on-base percentage, a .531 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS in 25 games against the Guardians since the start of last season. Max Kepler has 46 hits, 16 home runs, 34 runs scored and 36 RBI at Progressive Field (52 career games), all his most in any opposing ballpark.

TWINS ON LEAD VOCALS: The Twins enter today with a 7.0 game lead on the Guardians in the AL Central, their biggest lead this season…through games of July 30 (37 days ago), the Twins had a 0.5 game lead on the Guardians, when Minnesota was 54-53 and Cleveland was 53-53.

ROYCE ROCKS: After starting the season hitting .182 (6-for-33) with a .576 OPS in his first eight games, Royce Lewis has hit .350 (48-for-137) with four doubles, nine home runs, 32 RBI, a .411 on-base percentage, a .577 slugging percentage and a .987 OPS in his last 37 games, including nine three-plus-hit games…among all MLB rookies with a minimum of 175 plate appearances, Lewis ranks first in batting average (.318), runs created-per-27 (8.73), OPS+ (148.0), slugging percentage (.541), OPS (.911), and wOBA (.391).

POLANCO UNLOCKED: Jorge Polanco has reached safely in a season-long 14-straight games, hitting .347 (17-for-49) with three doubles, four home runs, 12 RBI, 11 walks, a .459 on-base percentage, a .653 slugging percentage and a 1.112 OPS in that span…his career high for an on-base streak is 37, done from May 13-June 25, 2019.

C4 IGNITING: Carlos Correa has hit safely in five-straight games and has nine hits in 21 at-bats in that span…in his last 37 road games, since June 8, Correa is hitting .293 (43-for-147) with nine doubles, eight home runs, 22 RBI, 13 walks, a .360 on-base percentage, a .517 slugging percentage and an .877 OPS. He has reached safely in 14-straight road games, posting a .450 OBP in that span with 12 RBI.

MR. BARRELS: Since August 1, Donovan Solano is hitting .372 (35-for-94) with five doubles, one triple, one home run, 13 RBI, a .404 on-base percentage and an .883 OPS in 26 games… in that span he has multiple hits 11 times, including six times in his last 10 games…since August 1, his .372 batting average ranks third best in baseball (minimum of 90 plate appearances), trailing only Mookie Betts (.429) and Julio Rodríguez (.398).

LAND OF 10,000 RAKES: The Twins have hit 31 home runs since August 22, tied with New York-AL for the most in baseball since that date…since the All-Star break, they have hit 84 home runs, second most in baseball, trailing Atlanta’s 94. One more home run today and the Twins will reach 200 for the season.

STARTING PITCHER – #41 JOE RYAN
2023: 10-8, 4.20 ERA CAREER: 25-17, 3.88 ERA

Making his 25th start and appearance of 2023 and his 13th road start of the year…also his 57th career start and appearance. Facing Cleveland for the third time this season…is 0-2, 2.84 ERA (12.2 IP, 4 ER) with one walk and eight strikeouts in two previous starts vs. the Guardians in 2023. Acquired by the Twins on July 22, 2021 from the Tampa Bay Rays,

LEAGUE LEADER: Ryan enters today among the top American League pitchers in several statistical categories this season (min. 20 GS):
STATISTIC RYAN’S #s AL RANK
Strikeouts-per-9.0 Innings…………………………. 10.91 ………………………………………………………. 3rd
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio………………………………. 6.15 ……………………………………………………….. 3rd
Walks-per-9.0 Innings………………………………… 1.77 ……………………………………………………….. 6th
First-Pitch Strike Percentage ………………………. 66.8 ……………………………………………………….. 6th

LAST TIME OUT: Earned his 10th win of the season in the Twins’ 5-1 victory on September 1 at Texas… recorded his 13th quality start of 2023, pitching 6.0 innings and allowing one run on three hits (1 HR), with no walks and seven strikeouts on a season-low 74 pitches…held the Rangers to one hit through 3.0 innings before yielding a solo homer to Corey Seager to lead off the fourth; after the homer, Ryan retired eight of the final 10 batters he faced…was relieved by Griffin Jax to begin the bottom of the seventh after the Twins rallied for three runs in the top half of the inning; Minnesota tacked on two insurance runs in the eighth and won the three-game series opener. Became first Twins pitcher to win 10 games in back-to-back seasons since José Berríos and Kyle Gibson both did it from 2018-19. Has allowed at least one home run in nine-straight starts (19 HR total), the longest streak of his career and tied with Kenta Maeda (also active streak) for the longest by a Twin this year.

TWO STARTS AGO: Took a no-decision in his return from the 15-day Injured List on August 26 vs. Texas in a 6-2 Twins’ defeat…allowed one run on five hits (1 HR) in 5.0 innings pitched, with two walks and seven strikeouts…his lone blemish was a solo homer by former Twin Mitch Garver in the top of the second inning…stranded two runners in scoring position in the second inning, inducing an inning-ending groundout from Leody Taveras…exited after 5.0 innings with the score tied 1-1; Griffin Jax allowed four runs in the ninth and Minnesota fell in the third game of the four-game series.

SEPTEMBER STAR: Making his 12th career start in September today, his most in any month in his career…is 6-2, 2.93 ERA (61.1 IP, 20 ER) with 17 walks, 67 strikeouts and a .160 (34-for-213) opponent batting average in 11 previous September starts…his .160 opponent batting average in September is his best in any month of his career and is the lowest in baseball since 2021 (min. 10 September GS).

RYAN’S LAND: Facing Cleveland for the third time this season and eighth time in his career…is 3-2, 1.83 ERA (44.1 IP, 9 ER) with five walks and 34 strikeouts in seven career starts vs. the Guardians, recording a quality start in six of those seven outings…has suffered the loss in both of his starts against Cleveland this year despite recording two quality starts…lost on May 7 at Cleveland in a 2-0 Twins’ defeat (6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R/ER, 0 BB, 4 K) and lost on June 4 vs. Cleveland in a 2-1 Twins’ defeat (6.2 IP, 2 H, 2 R/ER, 1 BB, 4 K)…pitched 6.2 scoreless innings in his last outing against the Guardians before being chased after allowing a two-out walk to José Ramírez and an RBI double to Josh Naylor.

CENTRAL HEATING: In 22 career starts vs. the American League Central, Ryan is 13-3 with a 2.39 ERA (131.2 IP, 35 ER), 25 walks, 140 strikeouts and a .188 (89-for-474) opponent batting average…his 2.39 ERA is his lowest against any division in his career…among pitchers who have started at least 20 games against the AL Central, he owns the lowest opponent batting average and third-lowest ERA (Hisashi Iwakuma – 1.99, Pedro Martinez – 2.09) in baseball since the division was formed in 1994.

WRAPPING UP THE ROADTRIP: Making his 13th road start of the season in the finale of the Twins’ six-game roadtrip…is 4-4 with a 4.68 ERA (65.1 IP, 34 ER), 14 walks and 72 strikeouts in 12 road starts in 2023…earned his first road win since April 19 at Boston in his last start on September 1 at Texas…has recorded eight quality starts on the road this season, with the Twins going 5-3 in those games (1-3 in his other road starts)…has posted better numbers at home this year, going -4, 3.77 ERA (71.2 IP, 30 ER) with 13 walks and 94 strikeouts in 12 starts at Target Field in 2023. Has allowed two earned runs in 20.2 career innings pitched (0.87 ERA) at Progressive Field. Is 12-8, 4.20 ERA (141.1 IP, 66 ER) with 33 walks and 148 strikeouts in 26 career road starts…in 30 career home starts, he is 13-9, 3.61 ERA (169.1 IP, 68 ER) with 46 walks and 199 strikeouts.

LEFT OUT: Left-handed hitters are batting just .213 (52-for-244) with a .629 OPS and 64 strikeouts against Ryan this year…his .629 opponent OPS against left-handed hitters is the 12th lowest in the American League this season (min. 20 GS)…right-handed hitters are batting .262 (74-for-282) with a .798 OPS and 102 strikeouts against Ryan in 2023. Over his career, lefties are batting .203 (113-for-558) with a .630 OPS against him…his .630 career opponent OPS vs. lefties is the 11th lowest in the AL since his debut (min. 250 at-bats)… righties are hitting .237 (144-for-609) with a .727 OPS off Ryan in his career.

SPECIAL K: Has recorded 347 career strikeouts through his first 56 games, the most in Twins’ history (1961-) through a pitcher’s first 56 career games…would also hold the record through a pitcher’s first 62 career games, four ahead of Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven (343 from 1970-71)…his 10.05 strikeouts-per-9.0 innings ratio in his career is the fifth best in Twins’ history, and his 4.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks eighth (min. 200.0 IP). HR/BB: Ryan has issued 27 walks and has allowed 27 home runs this season…is one of five pitchers in Twins’ history (since 1961) to own a single-season home run-to-walk ratio of at least 1.0 (min. 125.0 IP), joining Rick Reed (2002 – 32 HR, 26 BB), Brad Radke (2003 – 32 HR, 28 BB; 2005 – 33 HR, 23 BB), Carlos Silva (2005 – 25 HR, 9 BB; 2006 – 38 HR, 32 BB) and Phil Hughes (2014 – 16 HR, 16 BB; 2015 – 29 HR, 16 BB).

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

GUARDS DROP BACK-TO-BACK TO TWINS
Coming off 3 consecutive series victories, the Cleveland Guardians dropped a second straight decision to the Minnesota Twins, falling by an 8-3 final on Tuesday night at Progressive Field…club has gone 14-11-4 over last 29 series (.500/45-45 record since May 26). TANNER BIBEE worked around 5 free passes to hold Minnesota to a pair of tallies (5.0IP, 4H, 2R-ER, 5BB, 4SO, 87 pitches), both coming in the 1st inning on a Max Kepler RBI-double followed by Carlos Correa’s RBI-single…was in position to be awarded the win, holding a 3-2 advantage when he was relieved by MATT MOORE to start the 6th…BO NAYLOR followed WILL BRENNAN’s leadoff single in the 3rd with a game-tying 2-run homer (8) off Twins right-hander Sonny Gray (6.0IP, 6H, 3R-ER, 2BB, 4SO, HR, 101 pitches)…GABRIEL ARIAS doubled to open the bottom of the 5th, setting up MYLES STRAW’s sac fly to give Cleveland a brief 3-2 advantage that would be erased by Christian Vazquez’s solo homer (6) off Moore in the top of the 6th…Minnesota busted up the 3-3 deadlock with a 5-run rally in the 8th off TREVOR STEPHAN – 4 of those tallies coming with 2 outs…Jorge Polanco pushed across the eventual winning run with a sac fly ahead of a run-scoring wild pitch by Stephan…Donovan Solano put an exclamation point on the victory with a bases-clearing 3-run triple. Cleveland (66-73) sits in 2nd place in AL Central standings, 7.0 games behind 2nd-place Minnesota (73-66) & 2.5 games ahead of 3rd-place Detroit (-9.5G, 63-75)…despite winning 6 of last 11, Guardians have dropped 11 of 19, 22 of 36 and 67 of last 124 overall since starting year 9-6.

TAKING ON THE TWINS
The Cleveland Guardians enter Wednesday’s matinee trailing the Minnesota Twins by 7.0 games for the AL Central lead…with 6 wins apiece, today’s contest will decide the season series between the two clubs…during the Terry Francona era, the Guards are 103-90 against the Twins and 49-46 at Progressive Field…since the start of 2022, the Guardians have won 9 of 15 matchups at Progressive Field…overall, Cleveland is 1,189-1,045 all-time against Minnesota. The Guardians will look to avoid being swept for fourth time this season and the first time since losing 3 straight at Houston from July 31-August 2…Cleveland has not been swept at home this season, with the last instance coming on September 2-4, 2022 against Seattle.

THE YOUNG BUCKS
Since August 19, BO NAYLOR is hitting .351 (13-for-37) with 5 doubles, 4 home runs, 9 RBI and a 1.255 OPS…during that stretch he has an extra-base hit in 8 of the 10 games he’s started…he leads all MLB catchers in extra-base hits and OPS and ranks 2nd in batting average behind CIN’s Tyler Stephenson (.376) during that stretch (min 35 AB)…the last Cleveland catcher with 9 extra-base hits over a span of 10 starts was Carlos Santana from July 18-August 1, 2012 (9 XBH). GABRIEL ARIAS has reached base in 8 straight games and hit safely in 7 of those 8 games…during that stretch, he’s hitting .355 (11-for-31) with 5 doubles, one home run, 5 RBI and a 1.007 OPS…since August 12, he’s hitting .282 (22-for-78) with 5 doubles, 4 home runs and 11 RBI.

CHILL WILL ON FIRE
In his last 11 games dating back to August 22, WILL BRENNAN is hitting a team-best .421 (16-for-38) with 5 runs scored and 3 RBI while slashing .425/.447/.872…among MLB hitters (min 30AB) during that stretch, his .421 batting average ranks 2nd in the AL/4th in MLB behind STL’s Jordan Walker (.432), LAA’s Luis Rengifo (.434) and LAD’s Mookie Betts (.455). In 39 games against the AL Central this season, he is slashing .333/.369/.432/.801 with 11 runs, 7 doubles, and 17 RBI…against the Twins, he owns a .400 average (14-for-35) with one double, one home run, 7 RBI and a .950 OPS…he has hit safely in 8 of 11 games against Minnesota this season with multiple hits in 5 of those 8 contests, including 3 straight games heading into Wednesday’s contest.

DOUBLE TROUBLE
Since the Trade Deadline on August 1, the Guardians have turned 32 double plays in 32 games, ranking 2nd in the AL/4th behind Texas (34), Colorado (34) and Los Angeles-NL (35)…prior to the deadline, Cleveland ranked 27th in double plays turned with 75 in 107 games…since the deadline, Cleveland is turning 1.0 double plays per game, compared to a 0.7 rate prior.

WELCOME TO CLASE, I’M YOUR CLOSER, EMMANUEL
With his next save, EMMANUEL CLASE will tie José Mesa (104) for 5th-most in club history…his 37 saves this season lead MLB ahead of CIN’s Alexis Diaz (35) and SF’s Camilo Doval (35)…his 64 appearances are T3rd in MLB with HOU’s Bryan Abreu and CIN’s Ian Gibaut, trailing ARI’s Miguel Castro (65), and SEA’s Matt Brash (67)…since July 7, Clase has converted 13 of 15 save opportunities with a 1.61 ERA (4ER/22.1IP) across 22 appearances…since the start of last season, Clase leads MLB with 79 saves and 141 appearances, while his 135.2IP rank 3rd among MLB relievers during that stretch.

TODAY’S STARTER – #63 GAVIN WILLIAMS RHP

WILLIAMS AT HOME
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 1-3 4.29 8 8 42.0 42 22 20 17 42
Career 1-3 4.29 8 8 42.0 42 22 20 17 42

WILLIAMS’ MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 1-5 3.46 13 13 65.0 56 27 25 27 68
Career 1-5 3.46 13 13 65.0 56 27 25 27 68

TODAY’S START
The 6-6, 250-pound 24-year-old right-hander is making his 14th career start, 9th at home, in the final matchup of this 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins, his second start against the club…is seeking his first win since July 8 against Kansas City…owns a 3.12 ERA (14ER/40.1IP) in 9 starts since the All-Star break. At the time of his MLB debut, Williams was the organization’s #1 prospect, MLB’s #2 pitching prospect and the #10 prospect overall (MLB.com)…he was selected in the first round, #23 overall, out of East Carolina University by Cleveland in the 2021 MLB Draft… became the 7th different rookie to make their Major League debut for the Guardians this season…is starting on extended 7 days’ rest; owns a 0-1 record with a 5.06 ERA (6ER/10.2IP) in 2 previous starts on 6-or-more days’ rest.

LAST TIME OUT
Williams faced the Minnesota Twins in the second contest of a 3-game set on Tuesday at Target Field in a 4-2 Cleveland victory… he did not factor into the decision after his outing was cut short due to a sore knee that occurred during a pitch in the 1st inning (1.0IP, BB)…following a leadoff walk to Edouard Julien, the Minnesota leadoff man advanced to 2nd following a wild pitch…following a Jorge Polanco foul out, Max Kepler reached base via error…after a Carlos Correa line out, Matt Wallner was hit by a pitch…a Royce Lewis pop out concluded the right-hander’s outing…Williams is the fourth pitcher in franchise history to have a start of 1.0-inning, no hits and no runs allowed, joining Stan Coveleski (8/22/1917 vs. Philadelphia Athletics), Don Mossi (8/3/1954 vs. NYY) and CC Sabathia (6/26/2004 vs. COL).

AMERICAN PIE
Among pitchers with 10-or-more starts against American League opponents this season, Williams ranks among MLB arms vs. the AL in ERA (2.68, 4th), batting average (.200, T4th), H/9 (6.44, 5th), FIP (3.11, 5th), HR/9 (0.54), SLG (.322, 6th) and OPS (.610, 8th). In 5 starts against the AL Central this season, Williams is 1-1 with a 2.38 ERA (6ER/22.2IP), 22 strikeouts and 7 walks…among MLB pitchers with 5-or-more starts against the division this year, his 2.38 ERA ranks 6th, behind BOS’ Chris Sale (2.33), CWS’ Michael Kopech (2.25), PHI’s Michael Lorenzen (2.03), TB’s Aaron Civale (1.53) and DET’s Eduardo Rodriguez (1.18)…following his 12 strikeout performance against Toronto on August 7, Williams became the 3rd rookie in franchise history to tally 10+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts (22SO), joining Herb Score (5/1-5/6/1955, 26SO; 8/31-9/5/1955, 24SO) and Bob Feller (9/7-9/13/1936, 27SO).

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