Friday, March 29, 2024
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MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (31-31) at Tampa Bay Rays (45-19)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 0-2 through two games on their current six-game road-trip after consecutive losses to the Rays the last two nights…this afternoon, they will play the three-game series finale at Tropicana Field before flying to Canada to begin a three-game weekend series at the Rogers Centre in Toronto against the Blue Jays…the Twins have gone 18-14 at home and 13-17 on the road.

Twins have lost a season-long four-straight games, their longest since October 1-4, 2022 (also 4)…they are looking to avoid losing their fifth-straight, which would mark their longest losing streak since dropping five-straight from September 19-23, 2022…the club’s last victory came on Friday night at Target Field, a 1-0 win over the Guardians.

Last night’s loss moved the Twins to their low-water mark of 31-31 and an even .500 for the first time this season…last time they had dipped below .500 was at the end of the 2022 season, when they were 78-84 (.481).

BATS OFF ON PABLO DAY: The Twins lost to the Rays last night at Tropicana Field by a score of 2-1, losing the series and making them 8-10-2 in series play (2-7-1 on the road)…the loss made them 1-5-1 in series play since May 15…Pablo López was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing one run (Paredes 2nd inning HR) on five hits in 7.0 innings pitched…Jhoan Duran (1-2) was issued the loss, allowing a walk-off home run to Randy Arozarena on his second pitch in the bottom of the ninth inning…the offense recorded just three hits and walked four times…Royce Lewis drove in the Twins’ only run, tying the game with a single in the top of the ninth inning.

X-RAYS: The Twins are playing the Rays for the third of six times in 2023…the next series between these two will come at Target Field for three games from September 11-13…the Twins have won four of their last seven against the Rays and 12 of their last 20, dating back to May of 2019.

Carlos Correa is hitting .289 (33-for-114) with eight doubles, five home runs, 14 RBI and an .833 OPS in 30 career regular season games against the Rays…he has hit safely in seven of his last eight against Tampa, batting .438 (14-for-32) with a 1.158 OPS in that span.

Jorge Polanco is hitting .299 (20-for-67) with nine doubles, two home runs and 14 RBI in 17 career games at Tropicana Field…he has 12 RBI in his last 11 games in this building.

STARTING OFF: Twins starters have averaged 5.7 innings-per-outing, up from 4.8 in 2022… they have also struck out 363 hitters and are on-pace to fan 964 batters, which would shatter the club record of 870, done in 1967…below are Twins starting pitching ranks in the AL:

INNINGS ERA BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
TOR – 354.2 TB – 2.96 TB – .223 SEA – 1.99 TB – 3.45 MIN – 1.12 MIN – 369 TB – .641
TEX – 353.2 TEX – 3.13 MIN – .229 MIN – 2.33 MIN – 3.49 TB – 1.12 TOR – 359 MIN – .655
MIN – 352.0 HOU – 3.23 TEX – .231 TEX – 2.42 SEA – 3.52 TEX – 1.12 CWS – 354 TEX – .665
HOU – 350.2 MIN – 3.45 NYY – .236 CLE – 2.53 TEX – 3.77 SEA – 1.15 HOU – 352 SEA – .672
SEA – 338.2 TOR – 3.91 CWS – .239 HOU – 2.59 HOU – 3.93 HOU – 1.19 TEX – 324 HOU – .705

EXTRA STRENGTH: 183 of the Twins’ 478 hits have gone for extra bases, equaling 38.3% of their hits, third-highest percentage in the AL:

XBH HITS XBH%
Tampa Bay……………………………………….233 …………………………571 …………………………………40.8%
Boston……………………………………………..212 …………………………551 …………………………………38.5%
Minnesota………………………………………..183 …………………………478 …………………………………38.3%
Baltimore…………………………………………191 …………………………508 …………………………………37.4%
New York…………………………………………..181 …………………………480 …………………………………37.7%

DON’T TAKE OFFENSE: The Twins have scored five runs in their last five games…in those five games, they are hitting .170 (26-for-153) with eight doubles, two home runs (Polanco on Saturday and Castro on Sunday), 13 walks and a .510 OPS.

LEAVE THE BROOMS ALONE: Twins are looking to avoid being swept today for the first time this season…last time they were swept was in three games at Kansas City from September 20-22, 2022…last time they were swept by the Rays was in three games from April 20-22, 2018 at Tropicana Field…Minnesota was swept seven times in 2022.

Minnesota has faced a potential sweep three times this season, salvaging the series finale each time…the previous three were April 21-23 vs. Washington, May 2-4 at Chicago-AL and May 22-24 vs. San Francisco.

ROYCE ROLLS ON THE ROAD: Royce Lewis is hitting .350 (7-for-20) with three doubles, two home runs, six RBI, five runs scored, an .800 slugging percentage and a 1.181 OPS in five career road games at the major league level, hitting safely in all five.

THE ‘PEN IS MIGHTY: Twins relievers have combined to post a .218 opponent batting average, the fourth lowest in baseball, trailing New York-AL (.212), San Diego (.215) and Cleveland (.218)…they have allowed just 164 hits this season, the fewest in baseball.

THIEVERY CORPORATION: Twins have stolen 30 bases in 36 attempts this season, for a 83.3 success rate, tied for third best in the AL and tied for fifth best in baseball…since May 15, they have successfully stolen 20 consecutive bases, their last caught stealing being Ryan Jeffers on May 13 vs. Chicago-NL (Barnhart/Wesneski)…since May 10, their 20 stolen bases are fourth most in the AL.

ANALYST ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay related notes on Bally Sports North broadcasters Justin Morneau and Trevor Plouffe:

Morneau played in 58 career games against Tampa Bay, hitting .308 (68-for-221) with 15 doubles, two triples, 12 home runs, 40 RBI and a .908 OPS against them…he homered in his first game at Tropicana Field on May 25, 2004, a solo shot off Victor Zambrano (Rocco Baldelli went 2-for-4 in the game for Tampa)…additionally, Morneau’s second career four-hit game was on May 8, 2005 at the Trop, falling a homer short of the cycle.

Plouffe played his first career major league road game at Tropicana Field on August 3, 2010, going 0-for-3 (current Rays analyst Denard Span went 2-for-5 that day for the Twins)…Plouffe hit one career home run off Rays pitching in 101 plate appearances, a two-run shot off Alex Cobb on July 18, 2014 at Target Field.

STARTING PITCHER – BAILEY OBER 17
2023: 3-2, 2.33 ERA CAREER: 8-8, 3.47 ERA

Making his ninth start of the season and third road start…also his 40th career start and appearance.

Facing the Rays for the first time in his career…is 2-2, 4.15 ERA (66.2 IP, 4 ER) with three walks and 66 strikeouts when facing an opponent for the first time.

Began season with Triple-A St. Paul and was recalled when Kenta Maeda landed on the IL on April 29…since being inserted into the rotation, the Twins have gone 5-3 in his eights starts.

Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft out of the College of Charleston.

LAST START: Did not factor into the decision, despite recording a quality start, in a 1-0 Twins victory against the Cleveland Guardians at Target Field on June 2…tossed 6.0 scoreless innings and allowed four hits, no walks and three strikeouts, opposite Aaron Civale…pitched 3.2 hitless innings until first baseman Josh Naylor singled in the fourth inning…marked his second-lowest single-game strikeout total this season (2 K vs. San Francisco on May 22)…joined Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez as the only pitchers to record two starts against Cleveland this year with 6.0-or-more scoreless innings…relieved by Jovani Moran in the seventh inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 3.0 scoreless innings…the Twins scored their lone run on a Jorge Polanco RBI double in the seventh inning…marked the fourth shutout victory for the Twins this season (also, back-to-back shutouts on March 30 and April 1 at Kansas City, and May 5 at Cleveland).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took his second loss of the season in a 3-0 Twins defeat in the finale of the three-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field on May 28; paired with his start on May 22 vs. San Francisco, marked the first time in his career he had lost consecutive starts… pitched 5.0 innings and allowed two runs on five hits, with one walk and seven strikeouts…tied his previous start on May 22 vs. San Francisco for his shortest outing of the year…his seven strikeouts marked a season high and the most strikeouts he has recorded since he struck out a career-high 10 batters on September 27, 2022 vs. Chicago-AL…allowed both runs in the second inning on a two-RBI single to catcher Alejandro Kirk…relieved by Griffin Jax in the sixth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 innings, allowing one run (an RBI single by Bo Bichette off José De León in the eighth inning)…the Twins were shut out at Target Field for the first time this season and the fourth time overall (also, April 4 at Miami, April 16 at New York-AL and May 7 at Cleveland).

OBER VS. TAMPA BAY: Facing the Rays for the first time in his career…making his sixth career start against an American League East opponent, second this season…is 1-3, 2.49 ERA (25.1 IP, 7 ER) with five walks and 26 strikeouts in his five previous career starts vs. an AL East opponent… Tampa Bay will be the 16th team he has faced since his major league debut on May 18, 2021…in 15 career starts when facing a new opponent for the first time, Ober is 2-3, 4.14 ERA (71.2 IP, 33 ER) with 18 walks and 68 strikeouts…has never faced an current Rays batters.

ROAD WORK AHEAD: Ober is making his first road start since May 16, third this season and 19th of his career…in his two previous road starts this season, Ober is 2-0, 0.69 ERA (13.0 IP, 1 ER) with two walks and 12 strikeouts…is 3-5, 3.32 ERA (89.1 IP, 33 ER) with 15 walks and 82 strikeouts in 18 career road starts…Twins have gone 10-8 in his road starts.

Pitching at Tropicana Field for the first time in his career…the Trop will be 12th ballpark he has pitched in since his debut…in 11 career starts when pitching in a new ballpark for the first time, Ober is 2-2, 4.59 ERA (45.1 IP, 23 ER) with nine walks and 53 strikeouts.

EQUAL OPPORTUNIST: Right-handed hitters are batting .216 (16-for-74) with 20 strikeouts and two walks against Ober after eight starts this season…left-handed hitters are hitting .196 (18-for-92) also with 20 strikeouts and nine walks…in his career, right-handed hitters are batting .222/.243/.408 with 109 strikeouts against Ober…lefties are hitting ..255/.320/.416 with 78 off him.

Owns the 10th-lowest batting average against lefties in the American League (min. 45.0 IP).

ARSENAL: Ober has used a four-pitch mix in his eight starts of the 2023 season, per Baseball Savant…two out of the three strikeouts he recorded in his last start came from sliders…mostly uses his slider (134 pitches) against righties while relying on his changeup (137 pitches) and curveball (51 pitches) against lefties…here’s a look at his repertoire: PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS

4-Seam Fastball (91.5).47.0% (336 pitches, 136/200)……… .222 (16-for-72), 5 2B, 2 HR, 18 K
Changeup (83.8)…………23.4% (167 pitches, 30/137)…………………… .190 (8-for-42), 2 2B, 8 K
Slider (81.7)……………….21.7% (155 pitches, 134/21)………… .205 (8-for-39), 3 2B, 1 HR, 12 K
Curveball (78.1)……………..8.0% (57 pitches, 6/51)………………………. .154 (2-for-13), 1 2B, 2 K

Owns the seventh-lowest opponent batting average against a curveball in the American League (min. 500 pitches)…also owns the 13th-best opponent batting average against a changeup (min. 40 PA).

CHASE U: According to Baseball Savant, Ober owns a 34.5 chase percentage this season, ranking in the 94th percentile in baseball…just passes his chase percentage last year at 34.4 for the highest rate of his career…ranks third on the Twin’s pitching staff, trailing Joe Ryan (36.8) and Pablo López (35.2).

GOOD MORNING STARSHINE: Ober is making his fifth day start of the season…is 1-1, 2.82 ERA (22.1 IP, 7 ER) with six walks and 23 strikeouts in his four previous day starts this season…is 3-3, 3.78 ERA (78.2 IP, 33 ER) with 20 walks and 71 strikeouts in 16 career day starts…tied with Sonny Gray for the second-most day starts on the Twins staff since 2021, trailing Joe Ryan (18).

ACROSS THE RIVER: In his four starts with Triple-A St. Paul this season, Ober went 2-1, 2.55 ERA (17.2 IP, 5 ER) with six walks and 22 strikeouts…in his last start with the Saints on April 18, earned the win in 6-0 St. Paul victory vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre…pitched 5.0 scoreless innings, allowed three hits, walked one batter and fanned six.

TURF’S UP: Making his second career start on artifical turf…last pitched in a ballpark with turf on September 18, 2021 against Toronto at Rogers Centre…took the loss after pitching 4.0 innings and allowing four runs on four hits (2 HR), with two walks and three strikeouts.

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

ANOTHER DAY IN RANDY LAND — The Rays won their fifth straight game in walk-off fashion, topping the visiting Twins, 2-1, on Wednesday night at Tropicana Field…3B Isaac Paredes (1-for-2, HR, RBI, R, BB) recorded his ninth homer of the season in the second frame, but Minnesota pushed across the tying run in the ninth frame…on the second pitch of the bottom of the ninth, LF Randy Arozarena (2-for-4, HR, RBI, R) tallied the game-winning homer, his 12th long ball of the season…it marked his second career walkoff plate appearance (also: RBI-single on 4/22/23 vs. CWS) and first walk-off homer.

The Rays pitching staff narrowly missed out on its 10th shutout of the season, led by starter RHP Shawn Armstrong (2.0IP, H, SO) and RHP Cooper Criswell (3.1IP, H, 2BB, 4SO)…over their last three games against the Twins dating back to 6/12/22, Rays pitchers have recorded a 0.33 ERA (27.0IP, 1ER), holding Minnesota batters to a .132/.240/.154 (12-for-91) clip, including 14.0 scoreless frames by Rays starters.

WALK-OFF MAGIC — Last night’s victory marked Tampa Bay’s fourth walk-off win of the season, tied for fourth most in the majors behind Cincinnati, Oakland and New York-AL (5 each)…the Rays are one of five clubs with multiple walk-off home runs this season (also: Brandon Lowe on 4/21 vs. CWS)…since 2018, Tampa Bay’s 36 walk-off wins are tied for fourth most in the AL.

HIGH FIVE — The Rays five-game winning streak is the second-longest active run in the majors, trailing Miami’s six-game streak…it marks their longest winning streak since 4/18-24 (6G)…during the streak, Tampa Bay is outscoring opponents, 23-6 (+17), while the pitching staff has turned in a 1.00 ERA (45.0IP, 5ER) and held the opposition to a .156 average (24-for-154)…the Rays are the only MLB club with three winning streaks of 5+ games (also 13G – 3/30-4/13; 6G – 4/18-24); five other teams have two such streaks.

WON BY ONE — Tampa Bay is 12-10 in one-run games, tied with Cleveland (12-17) for the second most one-run wins in the majors behind Miami (16-4)…this includes a 9-3 mark at Tropicana Field…after dropping nine of their 13 one-run contests from 5/6-30, the Rays have won back-to-back one-run games (also: 5/31 at CHC) for the first time since winning three straight from 4/28-5/5…the Rays have played 22 one-run games, third most in MLB, trailing Cleveland (29G) and Cincinnati (24G).

SERIES STUFF — With last night’s victory, the Rays improved to 14-5-1 in series play, including 10-1-0 at Tropicana Field…they have won six consecutive home series, posting a 14-4 record in that span…with a win today, the Rays will secure their seventh sweep of the season, including their first over Minnesota since 4/20-22, 2018…Tampa Bay is the only team in baseball that has not suffered a losing streak of 3+ games.

The Rays are 10-1-0 in home series, becoming the first team since the 2016 Texas Rangers (10-1-0) to win 10 of their first 11 home series in a season…Tampa Bay’s previous best start through 11 home series was 8-3-0, done in 2008 (Elias).

HISTORY AT HOME — Tampa Bay’s 28-6 record at Tropicana Field marks MLB’s best start at home since the 1998 New York Yankees (also 28-6)…the Rays are one of eight teams since 1901 to win at least 28 of their first 34 home games in a season…have won six of seven, 10 of 13, and 14 of their last 18 home games overall.

Tampa Bay hitters rank among MLB leaders at home in several categories, including stolen bases (1st, 43), homers (1st, 57), extra-base hits (2nd, 129), total bases (2nd, 538), runs per game (2nd, 5.85), OPS (2nd, .835) and SLG (2nd, .491).

TO BE THE BEST… — The Rays have gone 26-13 (.667) against teams that currently have a record of .500 or better, the best mark in the majors, ahead of Texas (14-10, .583)…since 5/2, nine of Tampa Bay’s 11 series have been against clubs that are currently .500 or better; the Rays are 21-13 in that span, including 7-4-0 in series play.

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE — Tampa Bay is 11-1 (.917) against the AL Central, recording a +47 (84-37) run differential…it marks the best winning pct. against the division by any AL club, ahead of Texas (7-2, .778)…the Rays opened the year with a nine-game winning streak against the division, tying their longest streak against the AL Central in club history (also: 6/29-7/11, 2013)…dating back to 8/20/22, Tampa Bay has won 10 straight home games over AL Central foes, tying the longest such streak in club history (also: 6/29/13 – 4/22/14).

The Rays lead the AL in SLG (.543), OPS (.888) and run diff. (+47) vs. the AL Central.

PITCHING PROWESS — Rays starters have recorded a 1.81 ERA (44.2IP, 9ER) over the club’s last nine games, the best mark in MLB during that span (since 5/29), ahead of San Diego (1.94)…this season, Tampa Bay’s rotation paces the majors in ERA (2.96), opp. average (.223), opp. OBP (281), opp. SLG (.361) and opp. OPS (.641).

Tampa Bay’s bullpen has registered a 0.45 ERA (20.0IP, 1ER) over its last five games, limiting opposing hitters to a .078 average (5-for-64) and a .365 OPS in that span.

BAG BANDITS — The Rays have stolen 30 consecutive bases without being caught dating back to 5/22, the longest streak in club history…they had achieved the previous mark of 21 straight steals on two separate occasions (6/3-27, 2007 & 7/1-23, 2010)…according to Elias, the last major league club to steal 30 straight bases was Cleveland (36SB) from 8/11- 9/17, 2021…the Rays have been successful on 44 of their last 46 stolen base attempts (95.6%) overall since 5/14 after opening the season 38-for-52 (73.1%).

Tampa Bay’s 82 stolen bases are the most by any major league club through 64 games since the 2009 Rays (103SB).

WANDER STRUCK — Wander Franco has hit safely in a season-best 11 straight games, the second-longest streak of his career behind his 13-game run from 9/14-27, 2022…it marks the longest active streak in the majors, ahead of OAK Ramon Laureano (9G)… Franco is batting .452 (19-for-42) with 5 XBH, 6 RBI, 7 BB and 7 SB during the streak.

THE BAY BOMBERS — The Rays have hit a major league-best 107 home runs, tied for the seventh-most long balls through a club’s first 64 games in MLB history (since 1901)…they reached 100 homers in their 54th game of the season, becoming the fifth-fastest team to reach the milestone in MLB history (since 1901).

The Rays have 32 multi-HR games, most in the majors, ahead of New York-AL (31G); they are 27-5 in those contests…this includes 16 games with 3+ homers, most in the AL and trailing only Los Angeles-NL (19G) in all of MLB.

TWINNING — The Rays and Twins conclude the first half of their six-game season series today…the two clubs will meet again from 9/11-13 in Minnesota…the Rays hold a narrow lead in the all-time series, 89-87, but the Twins have had the upper hand in recent years, winning five of the last nine matchups and posting a 12-9 mark since 2019.

TODAYS STARTER: RHP YONNY CHIRINOS (2-1, 2.79)
YONNY ON THE HILL — RHP Yonny Chirinos is scheduled to make his eighth appearance of the season, including his second start…in his start on 5/5 vs. New York-AL, he did not factor into the decision after working a season-high 5.1 innings, allowing three runs on three hits and four walks with no strikeouts.

LAST TIME OUT — Chirinos earned the win on 5/16 at New York-NL after throwing 4.2 relief innings, allowing three runs on three hits with one walk and two strikeouts.

He allowed his first two home runs of the season after entering the start with 24.1 homerless innings across six appearances (one start).

TWIN CITIES — Chirinos has made two career starts against the Twins…in those outings, he is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (10.0IP, 6ER), striking out 13 batters against three walks.

In his last start opposite Minnesota on 6/1/19 at Tropicana Field, Chirinos took the loss after allowing four runs over 5.1 innings, surrendering a career-high tying nine hits with one walk and seven strikeouts.

LEFTY LOOSEY — Through his first seven appearances this season, Chirinos has allowed just seven hits to left-handed batters (7-for-46)…over his last 15 games in the majors since 8/4/19, lefties are slashing just .178/.245/.267 (16-for-90) against him with four extra-base hits (2 2B, 2HR)…in the same span, righties are .234/.305/.469 (30-for-128) with 16 extra-base hits, including seven homers.

THIS AND THAT — Chirinos has held opponents to a 5-for-33 (.152) clip with runners on base…opposing hitters are 6-for-48 (.125) following a first-pitch strike and 8-for-42 (.190) following a first-pitch ball

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