Wednesday, July 17, 2024
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MLB Preview: Miami Marlins (65-62) at San Diego Padres (60-67)


The Marlins today conclude a six-game, two-stop road trip with the final of three games at the Padres. The trip began with a three-game series at the Dodgers that saw Miami drop two of three, including both legs of a doubleheader on Saturday due to the impending effects of Hurricane Hilary. Following this series, will head home for a two-series homestand against Washington (Fri-Sun) and Tampa Bay (Tues-Weds) with two days off.


  • Miami ranks 3rd in the NL with a .260 batting average (6th in the Majors), behind Washington (.260) and Atlanta (.273) and ranks 2nd in the NL with 1,122 hits behind only Atlanta (1,179).
  • The Marlins offense has struck out a combined 1,013 times this year, the 6th-lowest total in MLB, behind Cleveland (876), Washington (891), Arizona (986), Houston (998), and New York-NL (1,004). The last time the Marlins ranked in the top 10 in the Majors in strikeouts was 2017 (10th).
  • The Marlins pitching staff leads the National League with 1,196 strikeouts (2nd most in Majors behind MIN-1,199).

The Marlins wrap up their return to Petco Park, where they are 28-34 all-time against the Padres here. Overall, Miami is 103-113 against San Diego, including dropping 2 of 3 in their match-up earlier this year at loanDepot park.

Miami blanked San Diego, 3-0, taking game two to even the series. LHP Jesus Luzardo held the Padres to 2 hits over 6.0 scoreless innings with 1 walk and 7 strikeouts, earning his 9th win of the season. RF Jorge Soler smashed a solo shot for his 33rd of the year, and the Marlins added 2 runs on an error and an RBI-fielder’s choice from LF Avisail Garcia who exited with a left hamstring strain on the play. Out of the bullpen, LHP Andrew Nardi struck out the side in the 7th, LHP Tanner Scott pitched a perfect 8th, and RHP David Robertson recorded his 18th save of the year.

The Marlins secured their 8th shutout victory of the season over San Diego last night, marking their first shutout win of the second half. Shut out their opponents 7 times prior to the All-Star Break, with the most recent shutout victory coming on June 29 at Boston in a 2-0 Marlins win.

DH Jorge Soler leads the Majors with 14 home runs against left-handed pitchers and is now tied for 5th in MLB with 33 home runs (T-4th in NL) on the year. Marks the most home runs by a Marlin since 2017 (Ozuna – 37 & Stanton – 59).

  • Soler’s go-ahead solo shot in the 3rd inning last night marked his 17th go-ahead homer of the year; leads MLB.
  • Recorded his 4th multi-HR game of the season (14th of his career) on Friday night and his first since June 11 at Chicago-AL, becoming the 9th player in club history to have at least 4 multi-HR games in a single season and the first since Marcell Ozuna (4) and Giancarlo Stanton (10) in 2017.

LHP Jesus Luzardo shutout the Padres through 6.0 innings last night, allowing 2 hits and 1 walk with 7 strikeouts. It marked Luzardo’s first scoreless outing since July 4 vs. St. Louis. Prior to last night’s start, had gone 0-3 with a 11.68 ERA in his previous 4 starts from July 30 – Aug. 16, allowing 20 earned runs on 30 hits in 17.0 innings pitched. Marked his 13th quality start of the season, leading the Marlins in such outings and ranking 4th among left-handers in MLB.

3B Jake Burger is riding a career-long 13-game hitting streak which is also tied for the longest-active streak in MLB with ARI’s Tommy Pham. Is the second-longest hitting streak by a Marlin this season, one shy of Bryan De La Cruz’s 14- game hitting streak from May 4-20. Over this span, Burger is hitting .440 (22×50) with 6 doubles, 1 home run, and 9 RBI with 6 multi-hit games (includes three 3-hit efforts, tied for his career-high).

  • His .457 clip is the highest among all qualified MLB hitters since Aug. 8, when his hitting streak began. His 1.152 OPS in this span in the fourth-best mark behind ATL’s Eddie Rosario (1.158), LAD’s Mookie Betts (1.232), and DET’s Spencer Torkelson (1.412).
  • Outside of Luis Arraez’s .426 AVG through his first 19 games as a Marlin, Burger owns the higest AVG by a Marlin through their first 19 games with the club since Dee Strange-Gordon was hitting .390 in 2015.

RHP Sandy Alcantara will toe the rubber for Miami in the series finale on Wednesday, currently ranking 3rd in club history with his 769 strikeouts (behind Josh Johnson, 832) and ranks 9th with 40 wins (behind Josh Beckett, 41 wins).

  • Alcantara is tied with Kevin Brown for 3rd in Marlins history with 10 complete-game wins, trailing only A.J. Burnett (12) and Dontrelle Willis (13). He also ranks 3rd with his 12 complete games as a Marlin, behind A.J. Burnett (14) and Dontrelle Willis (15).

While going just 16-25 in the first game of a series, own a combined 46-34 record in games two and three.

Of Miami’s remaining 35 games, 18 are against teams currently in postseason position (51%).

Attendance at loanDepot park is up nearly 25% through the first 64 home games compared to the 2022 season. The Marlins are coming off the largest attended series in ballpark history, when they hosted a total of 100,001 fans at the three game set vs. the Yankees last weekend. Last year’s attendance total (907,487) is expected to be surpassed during the next Marlins home game.

The Marlins this upcoming weekend will host the Washington Nationals. The 11th homestand of the year will be a busy one:

  • Friday: Women’s Empowerment Night, Flashback Friday presented by LEON, and the first-ever post-game drone light show
  • Saturday: Colombian Heritage Celebration and Faith & Family Night presented by He Gets Us
  • Sunday: STAR WARS Day and Jewish Community Celebration


  • The reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara will make his 26th start of the season today. Marks his fifth career start against the San Diego Padres.
  • Last faced San Diego on May 30 at loanDepot park. Walked a season-high 5 batters and allowed 4 runs on 5 hits over 6.1 innings. Struck out 3.
  • In his most recent start at Los Angeles-NL on Aug. 18, earned a second consecutive win for the first time this season, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits (3 home runs) and 1 walk over 6.0 innings.

Struck out 6.

  • Since the start of 2018, his 12 complete games are the most in MLB and is double the amount of any other pitcher (Gerrit Cole, Adam Wainwright, and Framber Valdez each have 6)
  • His 10 strikeouts on Aug. 12 vs. New York-AL marked his 13th career double-digit strikeout game. Is tied with Ricky Nolasco for the 2nd most such starts in Marlins history trailing only José Fernández (18).
  • Is tied with Kevin Brown for 3rd in franchise history with 10 complete game wins, trailing A.J. Burnett (12) and Dontrelle Willis (13). Ranks 3rd with 12 complete games as a Marlin, behind A.J. Burnett (14) and Dontrelle Willis (15).
  • Has the ninth-most wins as a Marlin with 40 (behind Josh Beckett – 41). His 769 strikeouts are the third-most on the Marlins all-time list behind Josh Johnson (832).
  • His 164.1 innings pitched this season rank 3rd in MLB behind ARI’s Zac Gallen (168.0) and SF’s Logan Webb (169.0).
  • Has gone at least 7.0 innings in 10 of his 25 starts; tied for the third-most such starts in the NL.


Snell has a quality outing, but Padres get shut out by Marlins 3-0 to force today’s rubber match

  • The Padres suffered their 11th shutout loss last night on Darren Feeney’s birthday, and Blake Snell was saddled with his 9th loss of the year and his 1st since July 20 @ Toronto… Snell logged a quality start, tossing 6.0 innings of 3 runs allowed on 6 hits, 8 punchouts, and 2 walks…it was Blake’s team-leading 14th quality outing.
  • Former Marlin Garret Cooper’s double was the Padres’ sole extra-base hit of the game, and they went 0-for-4 with RISP.
  • Yesterday was the Ha-Seong Kim bobblehead night, and in a pregame ceremony, he was honored as the Padres’ representative for the 2023 Heart & Hustle Award.

Today is game 19 of playing 19 games in 20 days & 32 games in 34 days

  • Today’s game will be the final game of the Padres playing 19 games in 20 days…their sole scheduled off day in the span from August 4-23 was on August 10, and August 19th was an off day following Saturday’s double header due to Hurricane Hilary…today is also game 19 in a stretch of playing 32 games in 34 days (from August 4-Sept. 6).

Seth Lugo makes his career-high 20th start

  • Starter Seth Lugo will get the ball today for his career-high 20th start of the season (previous high was his 18 starts from 2017)…in his last time out last Friday on August 18 vs. Arizona, he posted his 2nd scoreless outing of the season (also: June 30 @ CIN) but received 0 runs of support for the 3rd time… he also fanned a career-high-tying 9 for the 2nd time (also: July 31 @ COL).

The race is on

  • The Padres are -6.0 games back in the NL Wild Card race, behind the Reds (-0.5 GB), Giants (-0.5 GB), MIA (-1.0) and D-Backs (0.0 GB), Cubs (0.0 GB), and Phillies (+3.5).

Trouble with quality starts

  • Blake Snell tossed his team-leading 14th quality start last night is the Padres’ loss, and San Diego starters lead the National League in quality starts (58).
  • The Padres are 36-22 when their starters have a quality outing, and per Elias, the Padres’ 22 defeats in quality starts are the most in the Majors…ranking 2nd are the White Sox and Twins’ 21 losses in quality starts.

Up next: 6-game, 7-day trip to Milwaukee & St. Louis

  • Following today’s game, the Padres will fly to Milwaukee, enjoy an off day, and play a 3-game series against the Brewers this weekend…they’ll play another 3-game set @ St. Louis before returning home to host the Giants for 3 and the Phillies for 3.

Lugo set for 6th career start vs. MIA
33-year-old Seth Lugo takes the mound for his career-high 20th start of ’23, surpassing his 18 starts from 2017 for the most in a single season…he’s allowed 2 ER-or-fewer in all 5 of his career starts vs. MIA from 2016-20, going 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA (7 ER, 25.1 IP)…in his 27 career relief outings vs. MIA, he is 0-1 with 3 SV in 5 SVO, 10 HLD and a 3.41 ERA (12 ER, 31.2 IP).

Lugo makes back-to-back starts vs. ARI
Lugo did not factor into the decision in either of his last 2 starts, which both came against ARI…last Fri, Aug. 18 he posted his 2nd scoreless outing of the season (also: June 30 @ CIN) but received 0 runs of support for the 3rd time…he struck out a career-high-tying 9 for the 2nd time (also: July 31 @ COL)…the previous Sun, Aug. 13 he left the contest with a 3-2 lead after 5.0 IP of 6-hit, 2-run ball but did not factor into SD’s 5-4 defeat.

Last winning decision came in first career app vs. DET
Leaving Mets as only team yet to face Lugo’s last winning decision since came 6 starts ago on Fri, July 21 @ DET…he joins CIN’s Luke Weaver as the only 2 NL pitchers to have made at least 13 starts since May 10 and have 1-or-fewer winning decisions…his 3.62 run support average is 5th-fewest in the Majors since May 10 (min. 13 starts)…the Tigers were his 29th team to face, and he’s now sqaured off against every ML club except his former squad, the New York Mets…on the season, his 11 quality outings tie for Musgrove for 2nd-most on the staff, behind only Snell’s 14.

Limiting the free passes
Lugo has walked 2-or-fewer in 15 of 19 starts in ’23, including 7 starts with 0 free passes… the 7 starts with 0 walks allowed over 5.0+ IP is T-3rd most among all NL pitchers this season…he ranks in the 88th percentile in BB%, and his 5.6 BB% is 2nd-lowest in his career (5.1 BB% in 2019).

First time through
Michael Wacha (.179) and Yu Darvish (.195) rank 2nd and 4th, respectively, among all qualifying NL starters in opponent AVG the first time thru a batting order…Lugo doesn’t qualify, but his .214 AVG (34-159) the first time thru woud rank 12th in the NL…opponents are batting .314 (46-148) the 2nd time thru and .267 (23-86) the 3rd time thru.

Inside the curve
Just like in ’22, Lugo ranks in the 100th percentile in curveball spin rate, averaging 3,237 rpm, but opp are hitting .287 against it compared to the .159 clip against it in ’22…he is averaging 60.8 inches of vertical drop on his curve – which is 5th-highest vertical drop – and an average of 7.3 inches and 14% more drop – of all ML curveballs

NL West Success (except for 1.0 inning)
Lugo has allowed 16 ER in 39.1 IP vs. NL West opponents this season (3.66 ERA), but half of his ER (8) came in 1 inning vs. LAD (T-4th on Aug 7)…remove that inning, and he has a 1.89 ERA (8 ER, 38.1 IP) vs. the division this season…overall, he owns a 3.44 ERA in (55 ER, 144.0 IP) in 62 career appearances (14 starts) vs. the NL West.

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