Friday, March 29, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (30-30) at Cleveland Guardians (27-32)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox have lost 3 straight games… They are 2-6 in their last 8 games and 9-16 in their last 25. The Sox went 2-5 over their 7-game homestand vs. CIN (1-2) and TB (1-3)…Today begins a 6-game road trip to CLE (3 games) and NYY (3). At 30-30 (.500), the Sox rank 5th in the AL East and are 5.5 games back from the AL’s 3rd Wild Card spot. Boston has been at or above .500 since 4/28 (13-14).

SERIES BUSINESS: The Red Sox fell to 11-7-1 in series play, including 6-4-0 at home after yesterday’s loss to TB. The Sox are 3-4-1 in their last 8 series, beginning 5/9. They are 7-4-0 in series against AL opponents.

SOX & GUARDIANS: The Red Sox won a 3-game series vs. CLE at Fenway Park from 4/28-30 (2-1). The Red Sox are 11-5 vs. CLE since the beginning of 2021, including 5-1 at Progressive Field. Alex Cora is 1 of 7 current MLB managers to have played for Terry Francona during his 8-year stint as manager of the Red Sox from 2004-11: Alex Cora (2005-08), Rocco Baldelli (2009), Kevin Cash (2010), Gabe Kapler (2003-06), Mark Kotsay (2008-09), Dave Roberts (2004), and David Ross (2008).

CENTRAL TIME: The Red Sox are 7-2 against AL Central teams this season, after going 18-15 in 2022. The Sox are outscoring AL Central opponents this season by a score of 61-41. They are 3-0-0 in series against AL Central opponents (3-0 at DET, 2-1 vs. MIN, and 2-1 vs. CLE). The Sox have won 4 consecutive series against AL Central opponents, beginning on 9/16/22 vs. KC.

GETTING BUSY: After Friday’s game was postponed and made up yesterday, the Red Sox are now in a span of 13 games in 12 days, from 6/3-14 (1-3 so far). The Sox are in a span of 26 games in 27 days, from 5/30-6/25, including 23 games in 23 days from 6/3-25. 3 of the Sox’ 5 series (10 of 16 games) from 6/3-18 are against AL East opponents (1-3 vs. TB, 3 games at NYY, 3 games vs. NYY)…Just 1 of their 9 series from 4/28-6/1were within the division (5/1-4 vs. TOR).

TOUGH TEST: The Red Sox have played 39 games against teams with a current winning percentage of .500 or better, tied for the 4th most in MLB (OAK-43, TOR-43, TB-40). The Red Sox are 18-21 (.462) against teams that currently have a .500 winning percentage or better. 7 of the Sox’ 10 series from 6/2-7/6, are against opponents who are currently above .500 (vs. TB, at NYY, vs. NYY, at MIN, vs. MIA, at TOR, vs. TEX).

COMEBACK KIDS: The Red Sox have 17 come-from-behind wins this season, tied for 3rd most in MLB (BAL-20, NYM-18). They have trailed in each of their last 3 wins.

CLOSE SHAVES: 7 of the Red Sox last 9 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer, including 3 one-run games and 2 two-run games. The Sox have played 27 games decided by 2 runs or fewer (13-14 record). Boston’s 10 losses by 1 run are tied for 4th most in the AL behind CLE (16), SEA (12), and MIN (11).

UPS AND DOWNS: The Red Sox have been held to 2 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 20 games, including each of the last 3, compared to just 8 of their first 40 games. The Sox have been held to 2 R or fewer in 3 straight games for the 2nd time this season (also: 5/21-23 at SD). BOS has been held to 6 hits or fewer in 3 straight games for the 1st time since 8/1-4/22 (4 games). The Sox have a .233 AVG/.311 OBP in their last 16 games, after entering that span with a .272 AVG/.342 OBP.

RED SOX OFFENSE
Dates Record AVG OPS Runs/Game
3/30-4/13 5-8 .235 .731 5.5
4/14-5/6 16-6 .295 .840 6.2
5/7-pres. 9-16 .245 .712 4.0

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox lead MLB in doubles (135) and rank top 5 in runs (4th, 306), OBP (3rd, .334), and OPS (5th, .764).
The Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 6th in MLB in SO% (21.0).

FOUR SCORE AND…: The Red Sox are 28-10 when they score 4 or more runs, compared to 2-20 when they don’t. The Sox’ 38 games with 4+ runs scored are tied for 3rd most in the AL behind TB (45) and TEX (41). They have scored 4+ runs in 4 of their last 7 games, after doing so in just 1 of their previous 7 games.

THE BIG INNING: The Red Sox scored 5+ runs in 11 innings this season, 3rd most in MLB behind TEX (18) and TB (12). The Sox have scored 5+ runs in an inning 5 times in their last 17 games, beginning 5/17 vs. SEA.

EXTRA, EXTRA: The Red Sox have been held to 3 XBH or fewer in each of their last 3 games (8 total XBH) after collecting 4+ XBH in each of their previous 4 (20 XBH). BOS ranks 3rd in the AL and 4th in MLB in XBH (207). The Sox have hit 4 or more XBH in 29 games, tied for 3rd most in MLB behind LAD (35) and TB (31).

YOUTH MOVEMENT: Red Sox players age 27 or younger have combined to hit 40 of the team’s 66 HR (Devers-13, Casas-6, Wong-6. Verdugo-5, Valdez-4, Duran-3, Chang-3). Their 40 HR rank 5th in MLB behind CWS (49), HOU (47), TB (44), and KC (42).
Pitchers age 27 or younger have started 28 of Boston’s 60 games (Houck-11, Bello-9, Whitlock-5, Crawford-3).

RUNNIN’ RED SOX: The Red Sox rank 4th in the AL and 6th in MLB in SB% (82.5%, 33-for-40). The Sox ranked 22nd in MLB with a 72.2 SB% in 2022.

ON THE MEND: Yu Chang is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester tonight vs. Rochester. Adam Duvall has played in 5 games on a rehab assignment with Worcester, making 4 starts in CF and 1 as the DH…In his last 3 games with the WooSox, Duvall is 3-for-10 with 2 HR, a double, 3 RBI, and 3 BB.

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 65 JAMES PAXTON – LHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 1-1 4.26 4 4 19.0 9 4 7 27 1.26 .236
CAREER 58-34 3.61 141 141 773.2 310 85 238 858 1.21 .239

Has thrown 5.0+ innings and allowed 2 runs or fewer in 3 of his 4 starts. Ranks in MLB’s 93rd percentile in strikeout rate…Has struck out 27 of his 80 batters faced (33.8%), a rate of 12.79 SO/9.0 IP. Opponents are 8-for-31 the 1st time through the order (.258), 8-for-31 the 2nd time through (.258), and 1-for-10 the 3rd time through (.100). Has thrown his 4-seam fastball 58.9% of the time…Is averaging 96.0 MPH with the pitch. Against his curveball, opponents are 1-for-11 (.091) with a single. In 5 career starts vs. CLE, is 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA (16 ER/26.1 IP)…His lone appearance at Progressive Field came with SEA on 4/26/18 (ND, 6.0 IP, 2 R, 5 H, 10 SO, 3 BB).

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

GUARDS SPLIT SERIES WITH TWINS WITH CLUTCH HITTING
The Guardians finalized a 4-game series split in Minnesota with a 2-1 victory over the Twins on Sunday afternoon at Target Field, the club’s third straight win in a series finale…bounced back from losses in each of the first two games of the Twins series to secure a winning road trip…Cleveland finished 4-3 on 7-game road trip through Baltimore (2-1) & Minnesota (2-2).

TRISTON McKENZIE made his 2023 season debut with an exclamation point, pilling up 10 punchouts across 5.0 scoreless frames (5.0IP, H, 0R, BB, 10SO, 79 pitches)…15 of his 79 deliveries induced a swing-and-miss…retired 15 of the 17 batters he faced, surrendering only a 2-out single to Michael Taylor in the 3rd and a one-out walk to Donovan Solano in the 4th…Twins starter Joe Ryan (6.2IP, 2H, 2R-ER, BB, 4SO, 88 pitches) stretched the scoreless portion of his afternoon to 6.0 frames before Cleveland staged a 2-out, 2-run rally against the right-hander to break the deadlock in the 7th…JOSÉ RAMÍREZ drew a 2-out walk and then scored on a double by JOSH NAYLOR that caromed off the limestone facing of the RF seats, mere inches from becoming a home run…

ANDRÉS GIMÉNEZ then greeted lefty reliever Caleb Thielbar with an RBI-triple to score Naylor…Willi Castro drilled a solo homer off ENYEL DE LOS SANTOS to lead off the bottom of the 8th and trim the Guardians lead to a single tally…the Twins staged their own potential 2-out rally in the 9th, putting runners at the corners with a walk and a single, before EMMANUEL CLASE struck out Castro to end the game and secure his MLB-leading 19th save.

Cleveland (27-32) sits in 2nd place in AL Central standings, 3.5 games behind 1st-place Minnesota (31-29) & one half-game ahead of 3rd-place Detroit (26-32)…despite winning 3 of 5 and 5 of last 8, Guardians have dropped 26 of last 44 overall since starting the year 9-6…club is set to begin a 6-game homestand against Boston & Houston (3 games each).

MORE THAN A FEELING | TITO ALL-TIME W’S
The Guardians are set to host the Red Sox for a 3-game set from Tuesday to Thursday, opening up a 6-game homestand… Cleveland is coming off a 7-game road trip, going 4-3 after taking 2 of 3 from the Baltimore Orioles and splitting a 4-game series with the Minnesota Twins…the Clevelanders traveled to Boston for a 3-game series from April 28-30, dropping 2 of 3 contests… following a 5-2 victory in the series opener by the Guards, the Sox won the second matchup, 8-7, in walk-off fashion then took the rubber match, 7-1.

Cleveland is seeking its first season series win against the Bostonians since winning 4 of 7 games in 2018…the Guardians are 5-10 in their last 15 regular season games against the Red Sox… in regular season contests, Cleveland holds a 563-457 at home against Boston and holds a 1,065-1,006 overall record against the franchise since 1901.

From 2004-11, Guardians manager Terry Francona served as manager for the Red Sox…in 8 seasons with Boston, Francona won two World Series (2004, 2007) and one AL East title (2007), while tallying a 744-552 (.574) overall record…amid his 11th season in Cleveland, Francona has made one World Series appearance (2016) and has won four AL Central titles (2016-18, 2022), while tallying an 872-703 (.554) overall record…the 64-year-old leader has a 27-35 record against Boston since taking over the helm for Cleveland in 2013.

With one more win, Tito will pass Gene Mauch (1,901-2,037) for 14th-most wins in MLB history…among active managers, he ranks 3rd, behind TEX’s Bruce Bochy (2,042-2,049) and HOU’s Dusty Baker (2,129-1,814).

NAYLOR CLUTCH GENE CONFIRMED
Following an RBI-double to take the lead in the 7th frame of Sunday’s contest, JOSH NAYLOR now has an MLB-leading 15 go- ahead RBI in 2023, one ahead of his teammate JOSÉ RAMÍREZ… his 21 RBI in the 7th-inning-or-later is T2nd in MLB with NYM’s Pete Alonso, behind STL’s Nolan Gorman (22).

Since 2021, Naylor has 8 go-ahead home runs in the 8th-inningor-later, leading MLB ahead of TEX’s Adolis García and SEA’s Eugenio Suárez who both have 6…on the season, Naylor is 14- for-55 (.255) with 3 home runs and 21 RBI in the 7th inning-or-later.

HOT IN CLEVELAND
Since May 29, ANDRÉS GIMÉNEZ (11-for-28, .393) and WILL BRENNAN (11-for-21, .524) are T2nd in hits in the AL behind TEX’s Corey Seager (13) and T4th in MLB…Brennan is currently on a six-game hit streak and his .524 batting average (11-for-21) over that period ranks 2nd in MLB behind MIA’s Luis Arraez (.556, 15-for-27)…he has raised his average from .222 to .254 during his streak…JOSH NAYLOR’s 9 RBI since May 30 is T2nd in MLB behind TEX’s Jonah Heim (12)…he is 9-for-18 and slugging .889 over his past 5 games.

JOSÉ RAMÍREZ enters today needing one extra-base hit to pass Ken Keltner (538) for 5th-most extra-base hits in Cleveland history…since 2018, Ramírez leads all MLB hitters with 349 extra-base hits.

Cleveland is hitting .270 (95-for-352) since May 26, ranking 3rd in the AL and 9th in MLB…during that stretch, the club’s 95 hits rank 3rd in the AL and 6th in MLB and its 24 doubles rank 3rd in the AL and 4th in MLB.

BULLPEN BREAKDOWN
Since May 1, Cleveland’s bullpen has lowered its ERA from 3.22 (39ER/109.0IP) to 3.06 (69ER/202.2IP), currently 2nd in MLB behind New York-AL (2.86)…opposing hitters are hitting .218 against the bullpen this season, 2nd in the AL and 3rd in MLB… the pen has been effective since May 22, allowing 8 ER over 45.2 innings (1.58 ERA), trailing only San Francisco for the best bullpen ERA during that stretch.

Led by the trio of ENYEL DE LOS SANTOS (1-of-11), NICK SANDLIN (2-of-16) and SAM HENTGES (1-of-8) the bullpen as a whole owns a 21.0% inherited runners scored rate (13-of-62), 2nd in MLB behind only Pittsburgh (17.9%)…De Los Santos (9.1%) is 6th in MLB and Sandlin (12.5%) is T8th.

EMMANUEL CLASE has 19 saves in 2023 and 61 saves since 2022, leading all MLB relievers…his 30 appearances this year are T1st in MLB behind MIA’s Andrew Nardi and his 107 games since 2022 lead all MLB relievers.

SPANISH RADIO RETURNS JUNE 9-11 VS. HOUSTON
Los Guardians Spanish Radio Broadcasts return vs. Houston June 9-11, available on The Gambler 1350AM in NE Ohio, WNZN 89.1FM in Lorain, and WHTX 1570AM/97.7FM in Warren and Youngstown…Los Guardians broadcasts feature Guards Hall of Famer Carlos Baerga providing the analysis alongside Rafa Hernández-Brito and Octavio Sequera who will be rotating play-by-play duties…the broadcasts will also be available via the audio stream on MLB’s At-Bat app, via NEO Sports on the iHeart app.

TONIGHT’S STARTER – 57 SHANE BIEBER RHP

BIEBER AT HOME
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 3-1 2.49 4 4 25.1 21 7 7 12 19
Career 23-16 3.60 55 54 329.2 319 142 132 83 374

BIEBER’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 4-3 3.72 12 12 75.0 76 32 31 21 53
Career 58-29 3.23 125 123 778.0 694 299 279 174 884

TONIGHT’S START
The 2020 Cy Young winner is scheduled to make his 13th start of the season, fifth at home, in the opener of this 3-game set with Boston…is making this appearance on 5 days rest after his last outing on Wednesday at Baltimore; is 23-9 with a 2.55 ERA (83ER/293.0IP) in his career on 5 days rest…his 2.55 ERA on 5 days rest is 2nd-lowest among MLB pitchers since his career began in 2018, trailing TEX’s Jacob DeGrom (2.21 ERA).

LAST TIME OUT
Getting the nod on his 28th birthday, Bieber did not factor into the decision in a 12-8 victory against the Orioles…he allowed a career-high 7 runs (earned) for the fourth time in his career, while giving up 8 hits and 2 walks, tallying 4 strikeouts in a season-low 4.0 innings…the last time Bieber had an outing of 4.0-or-fewer innings was May 7, 2022 vs. Toronto (3.1IP, 8H, 7R/ER, 3BB, 0SO)…after retiring the first 5 Orioles hitters in order, Bieber faced trouble with 2 outs in the 2nd…after issuing back-to-back walks, Jorge Mateo roped an RBI-double, Ryan McKenna hit a 2-RBI-single, Adam Frazier hit a double, and Adley Rutschman had an RBI-infield single to put Baltimore ahead 4-1…he faced more trouble with 2 outs in the 3rd, issuing a single to Aaron Hicks before a Ryan O’Hearn double gave Baltimore a 5-3 lead…in the 4th, Bieber faced more 2-out trouble as Rutschman’s infield single and Anthony Santander’s 2-run home run gave the Orioles a 7-6 advantage…a strikeout to end the 4th capped his outing.

BIEBER VS. BEANTOWN
This will be his seventh career appearance and sixth career start against the Red Sox, holding a 3-3 record with a 5.50 ERA (22ER/36.0IP)…all 3 of Bieber’s losses to Boston have come at home, as he has an 0-3 record with a 5.60 ERA (11ER/17.2IP), 12 strikeouts and 5 walks in 3 appearances/2 starts at Progressive Field against the Red Sox…on April 28 at Boston, he registered his second win of the 2023 season in a 5-2 victory…Bieber tossed 7.0 innings while allowing 2 runs (earned) on 5 hits with 2 walks and 4 strikeouts…after facing the minimum in the 1st, an Enrique Hernández RBI-single in the 2nd gave Boston their first run of the game…Bieber retired 7 of the next 8 hitters in the 2nd-4th innings before two base hits and an Alex Verdugo RBI-groundout…he then retired 7 of the last 8 batters he faced, leaving after the 7th inning. » In his career, Bieber owns a 3.98 ERA (75ER/169.2IP) and 13-8 record in 27 appearances (26 starts) against the AL East, his highest ERA against any American League division…he is 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA (13ER/26.0IP) in 4 starts against the AL East this year.

HIGH QUALITY
After beginning the season with quality starts in 9 of his first 12 outings, Bieber has a made quality start in 20 of his last 25 starts, including an 11 start-streak from July 29-September 22, 2022…he ranks 2nd in both MLB and the AL with 32 quality starts since last year, trailing Houston’s Framber Valdez (36).

MLB QUALITY START RANKINGS, 2022-23
NAME TEAM QS
Framber Valdez HOU 36
Shane Bieber CLE 32
Yu Darvish SD 30
Gerrit Cole NYY 29

FOUR AND LOOKING FOR MORE
Bieber has finished with exactly 4 strikeouts in 8 of his 12 outings this season…he is tied for the most 4-strikeout starts through the first 59 games of a season in MLB history, tying Britt Burns (1982, Chicago-AL), Dutch Ruether (1922, St. Louis-AL) and Johnny Lush (1909, St. Louis-NL)

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