Friday, April 19, 2024
Wager-Tracker: All Sports Betting Log

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (19-14) at Philadelphia Phillies (15-17)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox have won a season-high 6 consecutive games, the AL’s longest active winning streak and tied with the Dodgers for longest in MLB. The Sox are on their longest winning streak since 6/19-26/22 (7 games). The Red Sox (19-14, .576) own the 4th-best record in the AL and 8th best in MLB.

A.L. WILD CARD STANDINGS
Rk. Team W-L Pct. GB

  1. Baltimore 21-10 .677 +3.5
  2. Boston 19-14 .576 +0.5
    T3. Los Angeles-AL 18-14 .563 –
    Toronto 18-14 .563 –

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox lead MLB in hits (313) and doubles (74), while ranking 2nd in runs (195), XBH (22), AVG (.274), and OPB (.345), and 3rd in SLG (.493) and OPS (.808). The Red Sox have recorded 10+ hits in 16 games this season, tied with TB for most in MLB…They have done so in 5 of their last 6 games.

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat MLB Rank
184 R 2nd
46 HR 5th
313 H 1st
122 XBH 2nd
19.6 SO% 2nd
Stat MLB Rank
.274 AVG 2nd
.345 OBP 2nd
.493 SLG 3rd
.808 OPS 3rd
119 wRC+ 3rd

20/20 VISION: The Red Sox are 14-6 (.700) in their last 20 games, dating back to 4/14…They own the 2nd-best record in MLB during that span (BAL: 14-4, .778). During that span, they have averaged 6.2 runs/game (124 runs), 10.5 hits/game (209 hits), and 3.9 XBH/game (49 2B, 29 HR), with an 18.6 SO% (146 SO/786 PA). Since 4/14, the Red Sox lead MLB in runs (tied), hits, XBH, AVG (.299), OBP (.364), and OPS (.857). The Sox have won 5 of their 6 series during that span.

SWEET SWEEP: Over their 4-game sweep vs. TOR from Monday-Thursday, the Red Sox scored 58 runs with 32 hits, 12 doubles, 9 HR, and 9 SB. The last MLB team to reach all of those numbers in a single series was the New York Giants against the Phillies at the Baker Bowl from June 24-27, 1921 (source: OptaSTATS). The Sox recorded 13+ hits in each of the 4 games vs. TOR, their longest streak since 6/26-7/2/19 (4 games). They set season highs yesterday in hits (16) and SB (5).

DON’T START WITH US: Starting pitchers have lasted fewer than 4.0 innings in 10 starts vs. BOS this season, most in MLB…Starting pitchers have completed at least 6.0 innings against the Red Sox just 4 times this season, fewest of any team in MLB.

SOX & PHILS: The Red Sox and Phillies will meet for the 1st time since 7/9-11/21 at Fenway Park…The Sox will visit Citizens Bank Park for the 1st time since 5/21-23/21. The Sox and Phillies split the season series in 2021 (3-3)… BOS won the 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park, 2-1. The Red Sox are 24-13 at Citizens Bank Park, having gone 9-1-4 in 14 series at the venue.

NATIONAL AFFAIRS: Starting today, Red Sox will face National League opponents in 6 of their next 8 series (17 of 23 games from 5/5-6/1) including each of their next 3 series (at PHI, at ATL, vs. STL). The Red Sox most games the Red Sox have ever played against NL opponents in a single calendar month is 10 (September 2020). The Red Sox are an MLB-best 290-199 (.593) all-time in Interleague play.

MACHO MAN: Masataka Yoshida went 3-for-5 last night (HR, 3 R, 3 RBI) to extend his current hitting streak to 14 games, the longest active hitting streak in MLB. During his streak, Yoshida is batting .446 with a 1.288 OPS, 13 runs, and 18 RBI (25-for-56, 5 2B, 5 HR, 5 BB, SF). Only 5 players born in Japan have recorded a hitting streak of 15+ games: Ichiro Suzuki (16x), Hideki Matsui (3x), Nori Aoki (2x), Shohei Ohtani, and So Taguchi.

FOREVER AND DEVERS: Rafael Devers hit his 150th career HR last night, a 2-run HR in the 8th inning. He’s the 3rd-fastest Red Sox player to reach 150 HR, by games played (Ted Williams-664; Jim Rice-711). He’s the 18th player to hit 150 HR for the Red Sox but only the 3rd to do so before turning 27 years old, joining Jim Rice and Tony Conigliaro. Devers is tied for the MLB lead in RBI (31)…He leads the AL in HR (11), 1 behind Max Muncy for the MLB lead.

DEVERS’ AMERICAN LEAGUE RANKINGS
Stat AL
10 HR ……………………1st
31 RBI…………………T-1st
52 hard-hit balls…….. T-4th
Stat AL
19 XBH………………………..2nd
72 total bases……….. T-1st
.558 SLG …………………….. 9th

ANGELS IN THE OUTFIELD: The Red Sox’ outfielders lead MLB in FanGraphs’ WAR (4.7), AVG (.321), OBP (.389), SLG (.551), OPS (.940), hits (126), doubles (35), XBH (54), runs (75), and RBI (80). In 2022, the only categories the Sox’ outfielders ranked higher than 10th in were hits (7th) and XBH (T-8th).

BOSTON BACKSTOPS: The Red Sox lead MLB in hits (36) and AVG (.316) by catchers. In his last 11 games, Wong is batting .400 (14-for-35) with 3 doubles, 3 HR, 8 runs scored, and 8 RBI. Reese McGuire leads catchers in AVG (.340; min 50 PA).

PITCHING IN: Red Sox starting pitchers have tossed at least 5.0 innings in 10 consecutive games, their longest streak since May 2021 (15 games from 5/7-22). Red Sox relievers have allowed 2 ER in 16.1 innings over the last 5 games (1.10 ERA). 5 of the 10 relief pitchers the Sox have used this season own a relief ERA of 2.00 or lower (see below).

RED SOX PITCHERS WITH A RELIEF ERA OF 2.00 OR LOWER
Pitcher Relief ERA IP ER
Brennan Bernardino 0.00 7.0 0
Kenley Jansen 1.04 8.2 1
Kutter Crawford 1.08 16.2 2
Josh Winckowski 1.61 22.1 4
Chris Martin 2.00 9.0 2

TEAM EFFORT: Five different players have recorded a go-ahead RBI in the 8th inning or later for the Red Sox: Alex Verdugo (4/18 vs. MIN, 4/29 vs. CLE, 5/1 vs. TOR), Adam Duvall (4/1 vs. BAL), Yu Chang (4/15 vs. LAA), Masataka Yoshida (4/23 at MIL), and Connor Wong (5/2 vs. TOR). The Red Sox have 12 players with at least 8 RBI, tied with TB for most of any team. Spots 7-9 in the Sox’ lineup have produced the most hits in MLB (99), and 2nd-most XBH (35) and RBI (57).

COMEBACK KIDS: The Red Sox have come from behind in 13 of their 19 wins, most in MLB…They trailed by multiple runs in 7 of their 13 comeback wins, including by 4 runs on 4/15 vs. LAA and by 6 runs on 4/1 vs. BAL.

HELP IS ON THE WAY: Joely Rodriguez made a rehab appearance for Triple-A Worcester yesterday vs. Buffalo, retiring 3 of his 4 batters faced (1.0 IP, H, SO). James Paxton is scheduled to start for Worcester tonight vs. Buffalo…He tossed 5.1 scoreless innings on Sunday vs. Scranton/Wilke-Barre (2 H, BB, 8 SO).

TODAY’S STARTER: 41 CHRIS SALE – LHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 2-2 6.75 6 6 29.1 22 5 10 35 1.47 .280
CAREER 116-77 3.09 329 249 1707.1 587 183 397 2099 1.05 .220

The Red Sox are 4-2 in his starts. Has a 3.63 ERA and .238 opponent AVG in his last 3 starts (17.1 IP, 7 ER, 15 H), after recording an 11.25 ERA and .327 opponent AVG in his first 3 (12.0 IP, 15 ER, 18 H). Has allowed 0 HR in his last 3 starts (5 HR in his first 3). Has lost each of his 2 career starts against the Phillies, both at Citizens Bank Park: 9/21/16 (4.0 IP, 6 R, 7 H, 0 BB, 5 SO) and 6/15/17 (CG, 8.0 IP, 1 R, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 SO). Opponents have hit .200 against his changeup (5-for-25) and .212 against his slider (7- for-33), compared to his 4-seam fastball (.341, 14-for-41) and sinker (.368, 7-for-19). Owns the Modern Era’s highest SO/9.0 IP rate (11.06) (min. 1,000 IP).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #32 RECAP: The Phillies fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers, 10-6, on a getaway day in Los Angeles … Starter Aaron Nola (ND) went 6.1 innings and allowed 4 runs on 7 hits with 0 walks and 5 strikeouts … The Phillies were up 5-0 following the top of the 3rd inning before the Dodgers plated runs in the 3rd, 4th and 8th innings to take a 6-5 lead heading into the top of the 9th … The Phillies rallied to tie it in the 9th before Max Muncy hit a walk-off grand slam in the bottom of the frame.

CITIZENS BANK SPARK: The Phillies have won five of their last six games at CBP (since 4/21) and are 8- 5 in South Philly this season … On the mound, the Phillies have combined for a 3.51 ERA (46 ER, 118.0 IP) at home and held opponents to a .661 OPS – Philadelphia’s 3.51 ERA at home ranks 3rd in the NL and 8th in MLB and their .661 opponents OPS also ranks 3rd in the NL and 8th in MLB … Philadelphia’s starters have a 3.88 ERA at home and a 5.49 ERA on the road whereas the bullpen has a 2.98 ERA at home and a 7.61 mark on the road.

BRYCE’S RETURN TO CBP: Tonight, Bryce Harper will take the field at Citizens Bank Park for the first time since Game 5 of the 2022 World Series against the Astros on November 3, 2022 (183 days ago) … It will be his first regular season game at CBP since September 25, 2022, vs Atlanta (222 days ago) … Over his last 162 games in this ballpark (regular and postseason combined, since 9/12/19), Harper is slashing .293/.415/.597 with a 1.013 OPS in 691 plate appearances – he has 116 runs, 42 doubles, four triples, 40 home runs, 110 RBI and 113 walks in that span … Last postseason, in eight games at CBP, Harper slashed .379/.455/.931 with a 1.386 OPS as the Phillies went 6-2 at home (.750 win %).

HARP ON IT: In his second game back from Tommy John surgery, Bryce Harper reached base safely in all five of his plate appearances on Wednesday against the Dodgers in L.A. (3-3, 2B, 2 BB) … It marked the 10th time in his Phillies career that he reached base safely at least five times in a single game … Among all players in MLB since 2019, Harper’s 10 games of reaching base safely five or more times ranks 1st, in front of Juan Soto, Carlos Santana and Manny Machado who are all T-2nd with six such games … For his career, Harper has 20 such games – other notable players that had exactly 20 career games of reaching base safely five-plus times include Hall-of-Famers Mike Schmidt, Willie Mays, Lou Brock, Craig Biggio, Lou Brock, Minnie Minoso and Earl Averill.

HERE COMES THE CAVALRY: The Phillies reinstated Bryce Harper from the 10-day injured list prior to Tuesday night’s against the Los Angeles Dodgers … Harper, who underwent UCL reconstruction/repair with ulnar nerve transposition on his right elbow on Nov. 23, 2022, in Los Angeles, Calif., performed by Dr. Neal ElAttrache, returned to the Phillies 160 days after the procedure … Last season, Harper was selected as a National League All-Star for the seventh time in his career … A two-time National League Most Valuable Player (2015; 2021), Harper was named the 2022 National League Championship Series MVP after slashing .400/.400/.850 with five extra-base hits (2 HR, 3 2B) and five RBI in five games … He hit the game-winning home run in Game 5 of the NLCS on Oct. 23, 2022, against San Diego, and overall, had four game-winning home runs which was the most ever by any player during a single postseason … His 1.160 OPS last postseason ranks fifth in major league history for a single postseason (min. 70 PA), behind only Barry Bonds in 2002 (1.559), Randy Arozarena in 2020 (1.273), David Freese in 2011 (1.258) and Corey Seager in 2020 (1.171).

BEDLAM AT THE BANK: Through 13 games at Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies are averaging 38,544 in attendance per game which ranks 4th among all clubs in MLB behind only the Dodgers (47,982), Cardinals (39,885) and Yankees (38,681) … Of Philadelphia’s first 13 games at home, six have been sellouts and nine have been over 35,000.

PHILLY SPECIAL: Since Rob Thomson took over as manager on June 3, 2022, the Phillies have played 67 games at Citizens Bank Park (43-24 record) and are 15-4-2 in series play with a +69 run differential (350-281) … The Phils have scored 350 runs in those 67 games (5.22 runs per game) and are slashing .272/.337/.468 with an .805 OPS … Among all major league clubs at home since June 3, 2022, the date Thomson took over, the Phillies rank 2nd in OPS & SLG, 3rd in AVG, 4th in runs per game and 5th in OBP … Philadelphia’s .642 winning percentage at home since Thomson took over ranks 3rd in the National League behind Atlanta (.716) & the Dodgers (.707) and 5th in MLB.

A CHECK UNDER THE HOOD (h/t Statcast): J.T. Realmuto ranks T-1st among catchers in blocks above average with 6 (Statcast estimates that there would be 12 total passed balls/wild pitches with Realmuto behind the plate this season and he has prevented six of them) … Realmuto currently ranks 1st again among all catchers in average pop time at 1.82 seconds from home to second base (next: Connor Wong, 1.88) … Zack Wheeler ranks in the 96th percentile in extension at 7.1 feet which translates to a perceived 4-seam velocity of 97.2 MPH which ranks T-8th among all starters in MLB.

CASTY’S BACK, TELL A FRIEND: Phils right fielder Nick Castellanos has gotten ahead 1-0 in 43 plate appearances this season – after taking ball one, Castellanos is slashing .474/.535/.763 with a 1.298 OPS and seven extra-base hits – his .474 AVG after 1-0 ranks 2nd in MLB, his .535 OBP is 10th, his .763 SLG ranks 11th and his 1.298 OPS ranks 8th … Last season, Castellanos ranked 201st out of 203 qualified hitters in MLB with a .575 OPS after getting ahead 1-0 – in 174 plate appearances after 1-0, he slashed .197/.276/.299
with 10 extra-base hits.

PHILA UNITE: Tonight, the Phillies will face off against the Boston Red Sox in the first game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park … Only a short walk across Pattison Avenue, the Philadelphia 76ers will take on the Boston Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals … Per Elias, this marks the 10th time the Phillies will have played a regular season game as the 76ers were playing a playoff game against teams from the same metro area … The last time this happened in Philadelphia was on June 8, 2021 when the Phillies faced the Braves and 76ers faced the Hawks … This marks the second time the Phillies have faced the Red Sox at CBP as the Sixers were playing the Celtics in a playoff game in Philadelphia, the other being May 18, 2012, in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals (92-83 Sixers win).

TODAY’S STARTER – ZACK WHEELER • RHP #45
2023: 3-1, 3.86 ERA Career: 77-58, 3.43 ERA

Javier … J.T. Realmuto and Kody Clemens both homered for the Phils as Connor Brogdon, Gregory Soto and Luis Ortiz made scoreless appearances
in relief of Falter.

TODAY’S START:
• Citizens Bank Spark: Wheeler is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA (17 ER, 85.2 IP), 0.92 WHIP and 98 SO to 25 BB in his last 14 home starts (since 4/28/22), the lowest among qualifying NL pitchers in that span and 2nd-lowest in MLB behind Justin Verlander (1.43) … He has not allowed a HR at home since 8/9/22 vs MIA (Has 5 straight homerless starts at home), and has allowed only 4 in 14 starts since 4/28/22 … His 2.27 home ERA (67 ER, 265.1 IP) since joining the Phillies is 2nd to only Alexander (2.04) among all Phillies pitchers with at least 40 starts at home since ER became an official NL stat in 1912 … Since Wheeler joined the Phillies, he has the 2nd lowest home ERA in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 home starts, percentage points behind Sandy Alcantara (also 2.27, 69 ER, 273.1 IP)

• Soft Landing: Wheeler’s 31.6% whiff % this season (% of swings and issues on overall swings) is on a career-high pace and far over his career average of 24.6%) … When batters do make contact this season, they are averaging an exit velocity of 84.9 mph, which is tied with Mason Thompson for the 4th-lowest among all pitchers with at least 50 batted ball events, trailing Max Fried (83.2 mph), Nick Martinez (84.5 mph) and Drew Smyly (84.8 mph)

• Best in the Biz: Wheeler’s 1.3 fWAR thus far is T-2nd among all NL pitchers with Spencer Strider, behind only Zac Gallen (2.0) … He ranks T-8th among all major ML pitchers … Since joining the Phillies in 2020, Wheeler’s 14.5 fWAR is the 2nd-highest in MLB, trailing only Corbin Burnes’ 14.9 and is a full win over the 3rd place pitcher (Kevin Gausman, 13.5)

• In The Yard: Wheeler has not allowed a HR in his last 5 starts, 1 shy of his career-best homerless start streak (6, 6/10-7/7/21) … He has surrendered just 1 HR this season and is 1 of just 5 NL pitchers with at least 30.0 IP to surrender 1 or 0 HR … Since 2016, only one other Phillies starter – Zach Eflin last season – has allowed 1 or 0 HR through his first 6 starts of a season

• vs AL East: 3-5, 4.44 ERA (46 ER, 93.1 IP) in 16 starts

• vs Interleague: 11-10, 4.26 ERA (91 ER, 192.1 IP) in 34 starts

HOME:
• 2023: 1-0, 3.12 ERA (6 ER, 17.1 IP) in 3 starts

• Career: 37-31, 3.36 ERA (233 ER, 625.0 IP) in 101 starts

• CBP: 21-9, 2.41 ERA (83 ER, 309.1 IP) in 48 starts

2023 SEASON:
• Recorded his 17th career double-digit strikeout game and 9th as a Phillie on 4/23 vs COL, and his 23 swings and misses were a new career high

• Made his 200th career start on 4/23 vs COL

• On 4/12 vs MIA extended his streak of home starts without allowing a HR to 4 and his streak of 5 or fewer hits allowed at home to 9

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