First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET / 4:10 p.m. PT
Venue: Fenway Park — Boston, Massachusetts
Surface: Natural grass
Dimensions: One of MLB’s most unique parks (short LF line, Green Monster)
Weather Outlook — Boston, Massachusetts
- Conditions: Warm, partly cloudy New England evening
- Temperature: ~82°F at first pitch
- Humidity: ~58%
- Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out toward left field
- Impact: Boosts carry for right‑handed hitters; fly balls to the Monster will be dangerous
Probable Pitchers
Washington — RHP Jackson Lord
(Projected profile based on organizational depth charts)
- Record: 5–4
- ERA: 3.68
- WHIP: 1.22
- Strikeouts: 71
- Profile:
- Fastball/slider mix with strong command
- Red Sox lineup has struggled vs. high‑spin right‑handers
- Lord’s road ERA (3.91) slightly higher than home
- Must avoid elevated fastballs — Fenway punishes mistakes
Boston — LHP Brandon Tolle
- Record: 4–6
- ERA: 4.57
- WHIP: 1.33
- Strikeouts: 64
- Profile:
- Left‑handed command pitcher with a strong changeup
- Nationals’ lineup is right‑hand heavy, which matches poorly for Tolle
- Home ERA at Fenway: 4.21
- Vulnerable to right‑handed power, especially with wind blowing out
Team Records & Recent Form
Washington Nationals (44–43)
- Road Record: 21–22
- Last 10: 6–4
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 4.6 runs per game over last 10
- Rotation ERA: 3.77 over last 10
- Bullpen improving after rough early‑season stretch
Boston Red Sox (37–47)
- Home Record: 18–24
- Last 10: 3–7
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 4.1 runs per game over last 10
- Pitching staff allowing 5.2 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen ERA: 4.62 (bottom‑third in MLB)
Injury Report
Nationals
- CJ Abrams — DAY‑TO‑DAY (shoulder)
- Josiah Gray — OUT (elbow)
- Lane Thomas — OUT (wrist)
- Hunter Harvey — DAY‑TO‑DAY (forearm)
Impact: Abrams’ status is critical — he’s Washington’s best table‑setter. Thomas’ absence removes a key power bat.
Red Sox
- Rafael Devers — DAY‑TO‑DAY (hamstring)
- Triston Casas — OUT (back)
- Nick Pivetta — OUT (lat)
- Kenley Jansen — OUT (hip)
Impact: Devers’ availability determines Boston’s offensive ceiling. Jansen’s absence weakens late‑inning stability.
Key Player Matchups
CJ Abrams (WSH) vs. Brandon Tolle (BOS)
If Abrams plays, his speed and bat‑to‑ball skills challenge Tolle’s command‑heavy approach.
Rafael Devers (BOS) vs. Jackson Lord (WSH)
Devers has a .302 average vs. right‑handed pitching this season. Lord’s slider must stay sharp — Devers crushes mistakes.
Joey Meneses (WSH) vs. Red Sox Bullpen
Meneses has 10 RBI in his last 12 games. Boston’s bullpen has allowed 17 runs in its last 24 innings.
Series History
- 2025 Season Series: Nationals won 2–1
- Last 10 Meetings: Nationals lead 6–4
- At Fenway Park: Split 5–5 over last 10
- Trend:
- Washington has played Boston surprisingly well
- Fenway’s dimensions often favor visiting right‑handed power
Betting Trends
Nationals
- 6–4 last 10
- Overs hit in 6 of last 10
- Nationals are 8–3 in Lord’s last 11 starts
Red Sox
- 3–7 last 10
- Overs hit in 7 of last 10
- Red Sox are 2–8 in last 10 home games vs. NL teams
Game Odds
Washington Nationals 9.5
Boston Red Sox – 142
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, June 30, 2026
