First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET / 4:07 p.m. PT
Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Surface: Synthetic turf
Roof: Retractable (likely closed)
Weather Outlook — Toronto, Ontario
Rogers Centre weather matters only if the roof is open. On July evenings, it is typically closed.
- Conditions: Warm, humid summer evening
- Temperature: ~79°F outside
- Humidity: ~67%
- Wind: 8–12 mph from the southwest
- Roof Status: Closed
- Impact: Neutral hitting environment; turf plays fast
Probable Pitchers
New York — RHP Frankie Peralta
(Projected profile based on Mets organizational depth charts)
- Record: 3–7
- ERA: 4.61
- WHIP: 1.34
- Strikeouts: 63
- Profile:
- Fastball/slider mix with inconsistent command
- Blue Jays’ lineup excels vs. right‑handed fastballs
- Road ERA: 4.88
- Must avoid middle‑in pitches — Toronto punishes mistakes on turf
Toronto — RHP Adam Fisher
(Projected profile based on Jays’ AAA/MLB depth)
- Record: 4–5
- ERA: 4.12
- WHIP: 1.29
- Strikeouts: 68
- Profile:
- Cutter/sinker pitcher with strong ground‑ball tendencies
- Mets’ lineup struggles vs. sinker/cutter combinations
- Home ERA: 3.77
- Generates weak contact — ideal in a fast‑playing dome
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (36–50)
- Road Record: 17–27
- Last 10: 3–7
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 3.9 runs per game over last 10
- Rotation ERA: 4.92 over last 10
- Bullpen has blown 4 leads in last 8 games
Toronto Blue Jays (40–46)
- Home Record: 21–22
- Last 10: 5–5
- Trend:
- Offense averaging 4.5 runs per game over last 10
- Pitching staff allowing 4.3 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen ERA: 3.81 (middle‑third in MLB)
Injury Report
Mets
- Pete Alonso — DAY‑TO‑DAY (wrist)
- Francisco Lindor — OUT (hamstring)
- Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
- Brooks Raley — OUT (elbow)
Impact: Lindor’s absence removes a major table‑setter and defensive anchor. Alonso’s status determines the Mets’ power ceiling.
Blue Jays
- Bo Bichette — DAY‑TO‑DAY (knee)
- Kevin Gausman — OUT (forearm)
- Jordan Romano — OUT (back)
- Daulton Varsho — DAY‑TO‑DAY (ankle)
Impact: Bichette’s availability is crucial for Toronto’s offensive consistency. Romano’s absence weakens late‑inning stability.
Key Player Matchups
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Adam Fisher (TOR)
If Alonso plays, his power profile is dangerous against Fisher’s sinker. Elevated cutters are a liability.
Bo Bichette (TOR) vs. Frankie Peralta (NYM)
Bichette has a .298 average vs. right‑handed pitching this season. Peralta’s slider must stay sharp — Bichette punishes hanging breaking balls.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Mets Bullpen
Guerrero has 10 RBI in his last 12 games. Mets’ bullpen has allowed 16 runs in its last 20 innings.
Series History
- 2025 Season Series: Blue Jays won 2–1
- Last 10 Meetings: Blue Jays lead 6–4
- At Rogers Centre: Blue Jays have won 7 of last 10
- Trend:
- Toronto has controlled the matchup at home
- Mets’ pitching has struggled in the dome
Betting Trends
Mets
- 3–7 last 10
- Overs hit in 6 of last 10
- Mets are 2–8 in Peralta’s last 10 starts
Blue Jays
- 5–5 last 10
- Overs hit in 7 of last 10
- Blue Jays are 8–4 in Fisher’s last 12 starts
Game Odds
New York Mets 8.5
Toronto Blue Jays – 109
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, June 30, 2026
