Scheduled First Pitch: 6:45 PM PT
Venue Type: Strong pitcher‑friendly park; suppresses HRs to RF, boosts triples in the alley.
WEATHER / PARK CONDITIONS
San Francisco Forecast:
Temp: 64°F
Humidity: 72%
Wind: W 14 mph (classic Oracle Park crosswind blowing out toward RF)
Precipitation: 0%
Conditions: Cool, breezy evening
Wind slightly favors left‑handed hitters but overall run environment remains pitcher‑leaning.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Milwaukee — RHP Brandon Sproat
2026 Season: 9–4, 3.28 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Power righty with elite fastball/slider combo
Giants struggle vs. high‑velocity RHP (team OPS .664 vs. 95+ mph)
Road ERA: 3.41
Key strength: swing‑and‑miss slider; elite K%
Key vulnerability: occasional walk spikes; can be inefficient early
San Francisco — RHP Tyler Mahle
2026 Season: 3–6, 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Four‑seam / splitter / slider mix
Brewers crush splitters (team SLG .501 vs. splitters)
Home ERA: 4.22
Key strength: induces weak contact when splitter is sharp
Key vulnerability: HR susceptibility vs. right‑handed power (Adames, Contreras)
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Milwaukee Brewers — Last 10 Games: 8–2
Offense averaging 5.4 runs/game
Bullpen elite (2.88 ERA last 10)
Road record: 31–21
Strength: top‑tier pitching depth, strong middle‑order power
Weakness: occasional swing‑and‑miss issues vs. elite sliders
San Francisco Giants — Last 10 Games: 3–7
Offense averaging 3.8 runs/game
Bullpen struggling (4.92 ERA last 10)
Home record: 23–32
Strength: contact hitters (Wade Jr., Estrada)
Weakness: bottom‑third MLB in SLG, rotation instability
INJURY REPORT
Milwaukee Brewers
OF Jackson Chourio — Day‑to‑Day (shoulder)
RP Joel Payamps — 15‑Day IL (lat)
SP Freddy Peralta — IL (elbow)
C William Contreras — Active
San Francisco Giants
OF Mike Yastrzemski — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring)
RP Camilo Doval — 15‑Day IL (shoulder)
SP Kyle Harrison — IL (forearm)
C Patrick Bailey — Active
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Brandon Sproat vs. Thairo Estrada
Estrada vs. sliders: .238 AVG, .402 SLG
Sproat’s slider is elite Edge: Sproat
Brandon Sproat vs. Michael Conforto
Conforto handles elevated fastballs well
Sproat must avoid top‑zone heaters Edge: Slight Conforto
Tyler Mahle vs. Willy Adames
Adames vs. splitters: .302 AVG, .544 SLG
Mahle’s splitter is his most vulnerable pitch Edge: Adames
Tyler Mahle vs. William Contreras
Contreras crushes sliders (.288 AVG, .560 SLG)
Mahle’s slider is inconsistent Edge: Contreras
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Brewers lead 3–1
Last 20 meetings: Milwaukee 12–8
At Oracle Park (last 3 seasons): Milwaukee 10–7
Brewers have dominated Giants in games started by power RHP
BETTING TRENDS
Milwaukee
Brewers are 9–2 in Sproat’s last 11 starts
Under is 10–4 in Brewers’ last 14 road games
Milwaukee is 7–1 in their last 8 games vs. San Francisco
San Francisco
Giants are 3–8 in Mahle’s last 11 starts
Under is 9–5 in Giants’ last 14 home games
Giants are 2–7 in their last 9 games vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Brewers have covered RL in 6 of last 8
Under has hit in 7 of last 10
Milwaukee has scored 5+ runs in 4 straight games vs. SF
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Sproat: 3.1 WAR
Mahle: 1.0 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Milwaukee: .748
San Francisco: .701
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Milwaukee: 3.12
San Francisco: 4.71
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Milwaukee: 4.9–5.6 runs
San Francisco: 3.6–4.2 runs
Game Odds
Milwaukee Brewers – 131
San Francisco Giants 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 26, 2026
