Venue: Wrigley Field — Chicago, Illinois
First Pitch: 7:40 PM ET / 6:40 PM CT / 4:40 PM PT
Surface: Natural grass
Broadcast: Marquee Sports Network, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.TV
WEATHER REPORT — WRIGLEY FIELD
Temperature: 58–62°F at first pitch
Wind: Blowing out to left‑center at 14–18 mph — major boost for right‑handed power
Humidity: 55%
Precipitation: <10% chance
Ballpark Impact:
Classic Wrigley “wind‑out” game
Expect elevated run scoring
Fly‑ball pitchers at a disadvantage
INJURY REPORT
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Probable, minor quad tightness
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand (1B) — Out, wrist injury
Hunter Greene (SP) — Out, shoulder fatigue
Alexis Díaz (CL) — Probable, light workload management
Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki (RF) — Probable, oblique tightness
Dansby Swanson (SS) — Questionable, ankle soreness
Justin Steele (SP) — Out, forearm strain
Adbert Alzolay (RP) — Out, elbow inflammation
TEAM RECORDS & PERFORMANCE
Cincinnati Reds (20–14)
Run Differential: +18
Road Record: 10–7
Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense: 4.92 runs/game
Pitching: 4.21 ERA
Bullpen: 3.88 ERA (top‑12 MLB)
Chicago Cubs (22–12)
Run Differential: +35
Home Record: 12–6
Last 10 Games: 7–3
Offense: 5.01 runs/game
Pitching: 3.89 ERA
Bullpen: 3.71 ERA (top‑10 MLB)
RECENT TEAM FORM
Cincinnati Reds
Offense hot: 5.3 runs/game over last 8
De La Cruz and Steer driving production
Rotation inconsistent without Greene
Bullpen strong in late innings
Chicago Cubs
Offense surging: 5.6 runs/game over last 7
Suzuki and Bellinger heating up
Pitching staff stabilizing despite injuries
Excellent situational hitting
PROBABLE STARTING PITCHERS
Cincinnati — Graham Ashcraft (RHP)
2026 Season: 3–2, 4.11 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Strengths: Heavy sinker, induces ground balls
Weaknesses: Vulnerable when elevated — dangerous in wind‑out games
Vs. Cubs: 4.02 career ERA
Chicago — Jordan Wicks (LHP)
2026 Season: 4–1, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Strengths: Changeup effectiveness, good command
Weaknesses: Hard contact vs. right‑handed hitters
Vs. Reds: First career start vs. Cincinnati
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
1. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. Jordan Wicks (CHC)
De La Cruz crushes left‑handed pitching
Wicks must keep the ball down to avoid extra‑base damage Edge: Reds
2. Cody Bellinger (CHC) vs. Graham Ashcraft (CIN)
Bellinger thrives vs. sinkerballers
Wind out boosts his HR probability Edge: Cubs
3. Spencer Steer (CIN) vs. Cubs Bullpen
Steer’s contact profile plays well in Wrigley
Cubs’ bullpen strong but vulnerable to right‑handed power Edge: Even
4. Ian Happ (CHC) vs. Wrigley Conditions
Happ’s switch‑hitting power plays well with wind out Edge: Cubs
SERIES HISTORY
2025–26 Season Series: Reds lead 7–6
Last 10 Meetings: Even (5–5)
At Wrigley Field: Cubs have won 4 of last 6
Games often high‑scoring due to park factors and division familiarity.
BETTING TRENDS
Cincinnati Reds
6–3 in last 9 road games
Over is 5–2 in last 7
4–1 in last 5 vs. NL Central
Chicago Cubs
7–2 in last 9 home games
Over is 6–3 in last 9
8–3 in last 11 vs. teams above .500
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds 11.5
Chicago Cubs – 207
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, May 3, 2026
