Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Venue Type: Pitcher‑leaning park; suppresses HRs to CF/RCF, neutral to LF.
WEATHER FORECAST — QUEENS, NY
Temperature: 81°F at first pitch
Humidity: 62%
Wind: 8 mph blowing in from right field
Precipitation: 10% chance
Conditions: Mild, slightly damp; run environment projects below average
Wind blowing in from RF reduces HR probability for left‑handed pull hitters.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Atlanta — LHP Chris Sale
2026 Season: 10–5, 3.28 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, slider, changeup
Mets struggle vs. elite sliders (team OPS .594 vs sliders)
Road ERA: 3.41
Strength: strikeouts, weak contact
Vulnerability: occasional HRs vs. RHB
New York — RHP Christian Scott
2026 Season: 4–6, 4.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, sweeper, changeup
Braves crush sweepers (team SLG .511 vs sweepers)
Home ERA: 4.12
Strength: command, swing‑and‑miss changeup
Vulnerability: struggles vs. left‑handed power
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Atlanta Braves — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Runs per game: 5.1
Bullpen ERA: 3.48
Road record: 29–23
Strength: elite power, strong rotation
Weakness: occasional bullpen volatility
New York Mets — Last 10 Games: 4–6
Runs per game: 4.0
Bullpen ERA: 4.29
Home record: 24–28
Strength: improved plate discipline
Weakness: inconsistent run production, low slugging
INJURY REPORT
Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuña Jr. — Active
Matt Olson — Day‑to‑Day (knee)
Austin Riley — Active
Max Fried — IL (forearm)
New York Mets
Pete Alonso — Active
Francisco Lindor — Active
Kodai Senga — IL (shoulder)
Starling Marte — Day‑to‑Day (groin)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Chris Sale vs. Pete Alonso
Alonso vs. sliders: .244 AVG, .511 SLG
Sale’s slider is elite Edge: Sale
Chris Sale vs. Francisco Lindor
Lindor vs. LHP: .281 AVG, .477 SLG
Sale’s changeup neutralizes switch hitters Edge: Even
Christian Scott vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
Acuña vs. sweepers: .322 AVG, .588 SLG
Scott relies heavily on sweeper Edge: Acuña
Christian Scott vs. Matt Olson
Olson vs. high fastballs: .309 AVG, .601 SLG
Scott’s fastball plays up in the zone Edge: Olson — if healthy enough to start
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Braves lead 4–2
Last 20 meetings: Atlanta 13–7
At Citi Field (last 3 seasons): Atlanta 10–8
Braves have won 7 of last 10 vs. Mets.
BETTING TRENDS
Atlanta
Braves are 8–2 in their last 10 vs. NL East
Under is 6–4 in their last 10 road games
Atlanta is 7–1 in Sale’s last 8 starts
New York
Mets are 3–7 in their last 10 home games
Under is 7–3 in their last 10 overall
New York is 4–6 in Scott’s last 10 starts
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 6 of last 9 meetings
Braves have scored 5+ runs in 5 straight vs. Mets
Mets have not won a home series vs. Atlanta since 2023
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Sale: 3.1 WAR
Scott: 1.2 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Atlanta: .748
New York: .703
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Atlanta: 3.39
New York: 4.44
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Atlanta: 4.6–5.4 runs
New York: 3.4–4.2 runs
Game Odds
Atlanta Braves – 157
New York Mets 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
