Game 1 First Pitch: 1:10 PM ET
Game 2 First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Venue Type: One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks; boosts HRs to LF/LCF and RF.
WEATHER FORECAST — CINCINNATI, OH
Temperature: 86–89°F
Humidity: 64%
Wind: 11 mph blowing out to right field
Precipitation: 15% chance
Conditions: Hot, humid, strong HR‑boosting wind toward RF
Expect elevated run scoring, especially for left‑handed power hitters.
INJURY REPORT
Cleveland Guardians
Josh Naylor — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring)
Steven Kwan — Active
Emmanuel Clase — Active
Triston McKenzie — IL (shoulder)
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz — Active
Matt McLain — IL (wrist)
Hunter Greene — IL (lat)
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand — Active
GAME 1 MATCHUP: Slade Cecconi (CLE) vs. Connor Burns (CIN)
Cleveland — RHP Slade Cecconi
2026 Season: 4–6, 4.37 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, slider, curve
Reds struggle vs. curveballs (team OPS .603 vs CBs)
Road ERA: 4.51
Strength: strike throwing, avoids big innings
Vulnerability: HRs vs. LHB (Great American Ball Park is dangerous for him)
Cincinnati — RHP Connor Burns
2026 Season: 3–4, 4.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Young starter with mid‑90s fastball and developing slider
Guardians hit sliders well (team SLG .462 vs sliders)
Home ERA: 4.38
Strength: swing‑and‑miss slider
Vulnerability: command inconsistency; high walk rate
GAME 2 MATCHUP: Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. TBD (CIN)
Cleveland — RHP Gavin Williams
2026 Season: 7–5, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Arsenal: elite fastball, power curve, changeup
Reds struggle vs. high‑velocity fastballs (team AVG .229 vs 95+ mph)
Strength: strikeouts, limits HRs
Vulnerability: occasional command lapses
Cincinnati — TBD
Likely candidates:
Nick Lodolo (LHP) — if rested; 3.88 ERA, strong vs. LHB
Andrew Abbott (LHP) — 4.22 ERA, high‑spin curveball
Luis Cessa (RHP) — bulk innings option
Cincinnati often uses a left‑handed starter in doubleheaders to split matchups.
RECENT TEAM FORM
Cleveland Guardians — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Runs per game: 4.7
Bullpen ERA: 3.61
Road record: 26–28
Strength: elite contact hitting, strong bullpen
Weakness: inconsistent power
Cincinnati Reds — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Runs per game: 4.5
Bullpen ERA: 4.29
Home record: 27–29
Strength: speed, athleticism, HR potential
Weakness: strikeouts, defensive miscues
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
GAME 1
Slade Cecconi vs. Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz vs. sliders: .301 AVG, .552 SLG
Cecconi relies heavily on slider Edge: De La Cruz
Connor Burns vs. José Ramírez
Ramírez vs. fastballs: .312 AVG, .571 SLG
Burns’ fastball command inconsistent Edge: Ramírez
Connor Burns vs. Steven Kwan
Kwan vs. sliders: .289 AVG
Burns’ slider is his best pitch Edge: Even
GAME 2
Gavin Williams vs. Christian Encarnacion‑Strand
CES vs. high‑velocity fastballs: .211 AVG
Williams thrives with velocity Edge: Williams
Gavin Williams vs. Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz vs. curveballs: .244 AVG
Williams’ curveball is elite Edge: Williams
Cleveland lineup vs. potential LHP (Lodolo/Abbott)
Guardians vs. LHP: .271 AVG, .441 SLG Edge: Cleveland
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: First meeting
Last 20 meetings: Cleveland 12–8
At Great American Ball Park (last 3 seasons): Cincinnati 7–6
Games often trend high‑scoring due to park factors.
BETTING TRENDS
Cleveland
Guardians are 7–3 in their last 10 vs. NL Central
Over is 6–4 in their last 10 road games
Cleveland is 5–2 in Williams’ last 7 starts
Cleveland is 3–7 in Cecconi’s last 10 starts
Cincinnati
Reds are 6–4 in their last 10 home games
Over is 8–3 in their last 11 overall
Cincinnati is 4–6 in Burns’ last 10 starts
Reds are 5–1 in games started by Lodolo (if he pitches Game 2)
Head‑to‑Head
Over has hit in 7 of last 10 meetings
Cleveland has scored 5+ runs in 4 straight vs. Cincinnati
Reds have won 3 of last 4 at home vs. Cleveland
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Cecconi: 1.1 WAR
Burns: 0.6 WAR
Williams: 2.4 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Cleveland: .726
Cincinnati: .718
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Cleveland: 3.44
Cincinnati: 4.51
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Game 1: CLE 4.8–5.6, CIN 4.9–5.7
Game 2: CLE 4.6–5.3, CIN 3.9–4.7
Game 1 Odds
Cleveland Guardians 9
Cincinnati Reds – 156
Game 2 Odds
Cleveland Guardians – 123
Cincinnati Reds 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
