Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 PM CT
Venue Type: Hitter‑friendly park; boosts HRs to LF/LCF, plays neutral to RF.
WEATHER FORECAST — CHICAGO, IL
Temperature: 83°F at first pitch
Humidity: 66%
Wind: 12 mph blowing out to left field
Precipitation: 10% chance
Conditions: Warm, humid, strong HR‑boosting wind toward LF
Expect elevated run scoring, especially for right‑handed pull hitters.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
New York — RHP Gerrit Cole
2026 Season: 11–6, 3.22 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, slider, knuckle‑curve, changeup
White Sox struggle vs. elite velocity (team AVG .226 vs 95+ mph)
Road ERA: 3.31
Strength: strikeouts, HR suppression
Vulnerability: occasional command lapses early in games
Chicago — RHP Mitch Kay
2026 Season: 5–4, 4.41 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
Arsenal: sinker, slider, changeup
Yankees crush sinkers (team SLG .488 vs sinkers)
Home ERA: 4.18
Strength: induces ground balls
Vulnerability: HRs vs. RHB — dangerous in this park with wind blowing out
CURRENT TEAM FORM
New York Yankees — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Runs per game: 4.9
Bullpen ERA: 3.52
Road record: 28–25
Strength: elite power, strong rotation
Weakness: streaky offense vs. breaking balls
Chicago White Sox — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Runs per game: 4.4
Bullpen ERA: 4.18
Home record: 30–23
Strength: improved plate discipline, strong middle‑order power
Weakness: inconsistent pitching depth
INJURY REPORT
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge — Active
Juan Soto — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
Anthony Rizzo — IL (back)
Carlos Rodón — Active
Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert Jr. — Day‑to‑Day (hamstring)
Yoán Moncada — Active
Eloy Jiménez — IL (quad)
Michael Kopech — IL (shoulder)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Gerrit Cole vs. Luis Robert Jr.
Robert vs. high fastballs: .241 AVG
Cole thrives up in the zone Edge: Cole
Gerrit Cole vs. Andrew Vaughn
Vaughn vs. sliders: .289 AVG, .501 SLG
Cole’s slider is elite Edge: Even
Mitch Kay vs. Aaron Judge
Judge vs. sinkers: .322 AVG, .611 SLG
Wind blowing out to LF Massive Edge: Judge
Mitch Kay vs. Juan Soto
Soto vs. changeups: .311 AVG
Kay’s changeup is his best pitch Edge: Soto — if healthy enough to start
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: First meeting
Last 20 meetings: Yankees 12–8
At Guaranteed Rate Field (last 3 seasons): Chicago 7–6
Games often trend high‑scoring due to park factors.
BETTING TRENDS
New York
Yankees are 7–3 in their last 10 vs. AL Central
Over is 6–4 in their last 10 road games
New York is 8–2 in Cole’s last 10 starts
Chicago
White Sox are 6–4 in their last 10 home games
Over is 7–3 in their last 10 overall
Chicago is 4–6 in Kay’s last 10 starts
Head‑to‑Head
Over has hit in 6 of last 9 meetings
Yankees have scored 5+ runs in 5 straight vs. Chicago
White Sox have won 3 of last 4 at home vs. New York
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Cole: 3.4 WAR
Kay: 1.0 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Yankees: .742
White Sox: .728
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Yankees: 3.38
White Sox: 4.47
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
New York: 5.1–6.0 runs
Chicago: 4.2–5.0 runs
Game Odds
New York Yankees – 120
Chicago White Sox 8
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
