Scheduled First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
VENUE / WEATHER
PNC Park — Pittsburgh, PA A pitcher‑friendly park with deep left‑center and a quirky right‑field notch that rewards line‑drive hitters.
Weather Forecast:
Temp: 79°F
Wind: NW 6 mph (blowing out slightly toward RF)
Humidity: 61%
Precipitation: 20%
Conditions: Partly cloudy, mild Weather slightly favors hitters, especially right‑handed pull hitters.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Arizona — RHP Merrill Kelly
2026 Season: 8–7, 3.66 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Veteran command‑first righty
Mixes four‑seam, sinker, changeup, curve
Pirates struggle vs. elite changeups
Key vulnerability: HR susceptibility on elevated fastballs
Road ERA: 3.92
Pittsburgh — RHP Mitch Keller
2026 Season: 9–6, 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP
Heavy cutter/slider usage
Diamondbacks struggle vs. cutters (team OPS < .700 vs. cutter-heavy RHP)
Key strength: induces weak contact early in counts
Home ERA: 3.21 (significantly better at PNC)
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Arizona Diamondbacks — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense averaging 4.9 runs/game
Bullpen stabilizing after mid-season struggles
Road record: 27–26
Strength: top‑tier baserunning, strong middle‑order power
Weakness: inconsistent bullpen in high‑leverage spots
Pittsburgh Pirates — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Offense averaging 4.2 runs/game
Bullpen has been strong (2.91 ERA last 10 games)
Home record: 29–24
Strength: young core (Skenes, Jones, Cruz, Reynolds) producing
Weakness: lineup streakiness, bottom‑third OBP
INJURY REPORT
Arizona Diamondbacks
OF Corbin Carroll — Day‑to‑Day (knee soreness)
RP Kevin Ginkel — 15‑Day IL (forearm)
1B Christian Walker — Active but managing back tightness
SP Jordan Montgomery — IL (shoulder)
Pittsburgh Pirates
SP Paul Skenes — Day‑to‑Day (fatigue management)
RP David Bednar — 15‑Day IL (lat strain)
OF Jack Suwinski — Day‑to‑Day (ankle)
C Henry Davis — Active
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Merrill Kelly vs. Oneil Cruz
Cruz vs. changeups: .198 AVG, .361 SLG
Kelly’s changeup is his best swing‑and‑miss pitch Edge: Kelly
Merrill Kelly vs. Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds excels vs. command‑first RHP
Kelly must avoid middle‑zone cutters Edge: Slight Reynolds
Mitch Keller vs. Ketel Marte
Marte vs. cutters: .247 AVG, .421 SLG
Keller’s cutter is his primary weapon Edge: Keller
Mitch Keller vs. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Gurriel crushes sliders (.311 AVG, .587 SLG vs. sliders in 2026)
Keller’s slider usage could be exploited Edge: Gurriel
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Diamondbacks lead 2–1
Last 20 meetings: Arizona 11–9
At PNC Park (last 3 seasons): Arizona 9–7
Games between these teams often trend low‑scoring due to pitching matchups
BETTING TRENDS
Arizona
Diamondbacks are 6–2 in Kelly’s last 8 starts vs. NL Central
Over is 10–4 in Arizona’s last 14 road games
Arizona is 4–1 in their last 5 games vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pirates are 8–3 in Keller’s last 11 home starts
Under is 7–3 in Pirates’ last 10 home games
Pirates are 5–2 in their last 7 games vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Underdog has covered RL in 6 of last 9
Under has hit in 8 of last 12 meetings
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Kelly: 2.6 WAR
Keller: 3.2 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Arizona: .739
Pittsburgh: .701
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Arizona: 4.12
Pittsburgh: 3.27
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Arizona: 4.2–4.8 runs
Pittsburgh: 3.9–4.5 runs
Game Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks 9.5
Pittsburgh Pirates – 111
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 26, 2026
