Scheduled First Pitch: 6:40 PM ET
Venue: Retractable‑roof stadium; roof often closed due to heat/humidity.
WEATHER / PARK CONDITIONS
Miami Forecast:
Temp: 91°F
Humidity: 68%
Wind: E 9 mph
Precipitation: 40%
Roof Status: Likely closed (standard for summer humidity)
With the roof closed, run environment becomes neutral‑to‑pitcher‑friendly.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Philadelphia — RHP Zack Wheeler
2026 Season: 10–5, 3.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Elite velocity + command
Heavy 4‑seam / sinker / slider mix
Marlins struggle vs. high‑velocity RHP (team OPS .671 vs. 95+ mph)
Road ERA: 3.41
Key strength: suppresses HRs in pitcher‑friendly parks
Key vulnerability: occasional early‑inning fastball leaks
Miami — RHP Tyler Phillips
2026 Season: 4–7, 4.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Contact‑management righty; relies on sinker/changeup
Phillies crush sinkerballers (team SLG .472 vs. sinkers)
Home ERA: 4.02
Key strength: induces ground balls
Key vulnerability: struggles vs. left‑handed power (Harper, Schwarber)
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Philadelphia Phillies — Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense averaging 5.0 runs/game
Bullpen trending upward (3.38 ERA last 10)
Road record: 26–27
Strength: elite top‑of‑order production (Turner, Harper, Bohm)
Weakness: streaky bottom‑third lineup
Miami Marlins — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Offense averaging 4.1 runs/game
Bullpen inconsistent (4.71 ERA last 10)
Home record: 28–25
Strength: contact‑heavy lineup, good situational hitting
Weakness: lack of power; struggles vs. elite RHP
INJURY REPORT
Philadelphia Phillies
OF Brandon Marsh — Day‑to‑Day (knee)
RP José Alvarado — 15‑Day IL (elbow)
SP Taijuan Walker — IL (shoulder)
C J.T. Realmuto — Active but managing back tightness
Miami Marlins
SP Eury Pérez — Out for season (elbow)
RP A.J. Puk — 15‑Day IL (lat)
OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Day‑to‑Day (wrist)
C Nick Fortes — Active
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Zack Wheeler vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz vs. high‑velocity RHP: .229 AVG, .401 SLG
Wheeler’s fastball profile is a tough matchup Edge: Wheeler
Zack Wheeler vs. Josh Bell
Bell handles sinkers well but struggles vs. elevated 4‑seamers Edge: Wheeler
Tyler Phillips vs. Bryce Harper
Harper vs. sinkers: .311 AVG, .587 SLG
Phillips’ primary pitch plays directly into Harper’s strength Edge: Harper
Tyler Phillips vs. Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber vs. changeups: .268 AVG, .540 SLG
Phillips’ changeup is vulnerable to left‑handed power Edge: Schwarber
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Phillies lead 3–2
Last 20 meetings: Philadelphia 12–8
At loanDepot Park (last 3 seasons): Philadelphia 15–10
Phillies have dominated Miami in games started by Wheeler
BETTING TRENDS
Philadelphia
Phillies are 9–3 in Wheeler’s last 12 starts
Under is 10–4 in Wheeler’s last 14 road starts
Phillies are 6–2 in their last 8 games vs. Miami
Miami
Marlins are 3–7 in Phillips’ last 10 starts
Under is 8–3 in Marlins’ last 11 home games
Marlins are 2–5 in their last 7 games vs. teams above .500
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 7 of last 10
Phillies have covered RL in 5 of last 7
Wheeler has a career ERA under 3.00 vs. Miami
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Wheeler: 3.9 WAR
Phillips: 1.0 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Philadelphia: .748
Miami: .703
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Philadelphia: 3.62
Miami: 4.55
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Philadelphia: 4.8–5.4 runs
Miami: 3.6–4.2 runs
Game Odds
Philadelphia Phillies – 175
Miami Marlins 7.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 26, 2026
