MLB Preview: Cleveland Guardians (25-30) at Minnesota Twins (29-27)

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CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

No team release available.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: After completing their six-game, seven-day homestand with a record of 2-4 (1-2 vs. the Giants and 1-2 vs. the Blue Jays), the Twins traveled to Houston for a short three-game road trip and took two of three from the Astros this week, winning games one and three… tonight, the Twins are returning home for a quick four-game series/homestand against the Guardians through Sunday…after this series, the Twins will travel to St. Petersburg to enjoy an off-day on Monday, then begin a six-game road trip with three at Tampa Bay from June 6-8, then three at Toronto from June 9-11.

LOUIE V, SO MUCH MONEY: The Twins beat the Astros last night at Minute Maid Park by a score of 8-2, winning their eighth series of the season (8-9-1), including their second on the road (2-6-1), first since opening the season with a three-game sweep at Kansas City…Louie Varland (3-1) was the starter and winner, pitching 7.0 shutout innings, with four hits allowed, one walk and five strikeouts…the offense recorded 11 hits, walked five times and struck out 14 times…Donovan Solano went 2-for-4 with four RBI and drove in the first two runs with a bases-loaded single, snapping an 0-for-14 stretch for the Twins with the bases full…Ryan Jeffers later drove in two runs with a bases-loaded ground rule double.

WELCOME BACK, POLO: The Twins have reinstated infielder Jorge Polanco from the 10-day Injured List…Polanco, who was placed on the Injured List on May 20 with a strained left hamstring, has played in 23 games for the Twins this season, hitting .284 (27-for-95) with seven doubles, four home runs, 14 RBI, 10 runs scored, six walks and an .811 OPS…to make room for Polanco on the 26-man roster, the Twins have optioned infielder Edouard Julien to Triple-A St. Paul..Julien, who was in his second stint with the Twins this season, recently appeared in 11 games for the Twins, hitting .200 (7-for-35) with two doubles, two home runs, four RBI, six walks and four runs scored.

STARTER STRENGTH: Twins starters have averaged 5.6 innings-per-outing, up from 4.8 in 2022…below are Twins starting pitching ranks in all of baseball:

INNINGS ERA BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
SEA – 316.2 TB – 3.13 TB – .225 SEA – 1.96 MIN – 3.42 SEA – 1.10 MIN – 344 TB – .644
TEX – 316.0 TEX – 3.28 MIN – .227 MIN – 2.41 TB – 3.50 MIN – 1.12 CWS – 326 SEA – .651
MIN – 314.0 MIN – 3.32 NYY – .233 TEX – 2.48 SEA – 3.51 TB – 1.12 HOU – 320 MIN – .656
TOR – 314.0 HOU – 3.35 SEA – .234 SF – 2.48 ATL – 3.74 TEX – 1.16 ATL – 312 TEX – .677
CWS – 313.0 ATL – 3.41 TEX – .237 LAD – 2.51 TEX – 3.75 HOU – 1.20 TOR – 308 CHC – .687

SUMMER MADNESS: With May wrapped up, below are the hitting (top) and pitching (bottom) comparisons through the first two months of the season:

AVG R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS
MAR./APR. .237 134 228 44 6 38 128 89 275 .310 .413 .723
MAY .229 122 214 43 1 36 115 115 299 .323 .393 .716
W L S IP H R ER HR BB K ERA BAA
MAR./APR. 17 12 9 258.2 216 108 100 27 76 285 3.48 .223
MAY 12 15 3 245.1 206 102 93 28 94 267 3.41 .226

ADDITIONALLY: The Twins’ 267 strikeouts in May set a club record for the month after setting a club record for any month in April with 274…below are the club’s all-time strikeout totals for May:

YEAR K/9.0 STRIKEOUTS
1) May of 2023 (27 games) …………………………………..9.8 ………………………………………………………267
2) May of 2019 (29 games)……………………………………9.1 ………………………………………………………260
3) May of 2022 (30 games)……………………………………8.6 ………………………………………………………256
4) May of 2018 (28 games)……………………………………8.8 ………………………………………………………252

TWINS-GUARDS: The Twins are playing the Guardians for the fourth of 13 times in 2023… these two last met for a three-game series at Progressive Field from May 5-7, as the Twins won the first of the three games…Twins were outscored 6-5 in the series.

Since the start of 2022, 17 of the 22 games have been decided by three runs-or-less and 10 by one run.

The Twins have hit 58 home runs against Cleveland pitching since the start of 2021, their most vs. any opponent in that span…next is Kansas City (56) and Chicago-AL (55).

Since 2019, Carlos Correa is hitting .311 (38-for-122) with four doubles, nine home runs, 17 RBI, 21 runs scored, 14 walks, a .387 on-base percentage and a .952 OPS in 32 games vs. Cleveland…however, he is just 1-for-12 this season with no walks and one home run (off Stephan on May 6).

Max Kepler hit two home runs during the three-run series at Progressive Field in May, one off Peyton Battenfield and one off Logan Allen…since 2016, nobody in baseball has more home runs vs. Cleveland pitching than Kepler’s 22 (chart in the right margin).

FEELING MINNESOTA: The Twins are 16-12 at home, compared to 13-15 on the road…they have a run differential at home of +27 (135- 108) and +19 on the road (121-102)…the offense at home has hit .246 (228-for-927) with 50 doubles, 40 home runs, a .768 OPS and 4.82 runs-per-game…on the road they have hit .221 (214-for-970) with 37 doubles, 34 home runs, a .674 OPS and 4.32 runs-per-game.

AK’S PAs AND ABs: Alex Kirilloff has reached base safely in 11 of his last 14 plate appearances and in 16 of his last 24 PAs…in his last five games he has posted a .652 on-base percentage, drawing seven walks and recording seven hits (1 HBP)…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 5, Kirilloff has hit .314 (22-for-70) with three doubles, three home runs, eight RBI, 14 walks, a .448 on-base percentage and a .934 OPS in 23 games…among players with at least 75 PAs in May, his .448 OBP ranked sixth best in baseball.

He is hitting .415 (17-for-41) with four extra-base hits off fastballs this season.

STARTING PITCHER – PABLO LóPEZ 49
2023: 3-3, 4.11 ERA CAREER: 31-34, 3.96 ERA

Making his 12th start and appearance and sixth home start of 2023 in his sixth major league season (Miami – 2018-22)…also his 106th career appearance (all starts).

Facing Cleveland for the second time in his career and first since April 23, 2019 with Miami at Progressive Field (W; 6.1 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 6 K).

Acquired by the Twins from Miami on January 20, 2023, along with infielder Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio, in exchange for infielder/outfielder Luis Arraez.

LAST TIME OUT: Earned his first win of May in the Twins 9-7 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays at Target Field on May 27…pitched opposite Chris Bassitt, who took the loss…went 5.2 innings, allowing four runs on five hits, with three walks and six strikeouts…allowed two home runs, a solo shot from shortstop Bo Bichette in the first inning and another solo homer to second baseman Cavan Biggio in the fourth; marked his second start this year in which he allowed multiple homers (3 on May 15 at Los Angeles-NL)…was relieved with two outs in the top of the sixth by Jovani Moran, who stranded one inherited runner…marked just the second win of his career allowing four-or-more runs, also doing so on April 28 vs. Kansas City (6 R).

Marked his 10th start of 2023 in which he recorded six-or-more strikeouts; is tied with TB’s Shane McClanahan and PIT’s Mitch Keller for the second-most such starts in baseball this year, trailing only ATL’s Spencer Strider (11).

Through 11 starts this season, López is among the American League leaders in several statistical categories, including strikeouts (81 – 4th), innings pitched (65.2 – 13th), pitches-per-inning (15.7 – 13th) and WHIP (1.13 – 15th).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took the loss despite recording a quality start against the Los Angeles Angels on May 21 at Angel Stadium, a 4-2 Twins loss…faced right-hander Shohei Ohtani, who did not factor into the decision…went 6.0 innings, allowed two runs on five hits, with three walks and nine strikeouts… allowed a sacrifice fly to infielder Gio Urshela in the bottom of the fourth inning…walked pinch hitter Matt Thaiss to start the bottom of the seventh and was relieved by Jorge López, who allowed two runs to score in the inning…Twins dropped the finale to lose the three-game series two games to one. AStruck out nine batters, his second-highest total of the season (10 on April 11 vs. Chicago-AL).

ON GUARD: Facing the Guardians for the second time in his career and first since April 23, 2019 with Miami; earned the win at Progressive Field, going 6.1 innings and allowing one unearned run on two hits with two walks and six strikeouts in a 3-1 Marlins victory…marked his first career start vs. an American League Central opponent and the coldest temperature at first pitch (56 degrees) in his career; has since started two games in which the game-time temperature was under 50 degrees, both at Target Field in 2023 (35 degrees – April 22 vs. Washington
and 48 degrees – April 28 vs. Kansas City).

Has faced five current Cleveland hitters in his career, with infielder Josh Bell owning the most experience against López (3-for-13 in 17 plate appearances).

In six career starts vs. AL Central opponents (KC – 3, CWS – 2, CLE – 1), he is 3-1, 2.79 ERA (38.2 IP, 12 ER) with eight walks and 45 strikeouts…Twins have gone 4-0 in his four starts against the AL Central this season, with López going 2-0, 3.46 ERA (26.0 IP, 10 ER).

BACK AT TARGET: Today is López’s sixth home start of the year…Minnesota has won four of his five home starts, with López going 2-1, 5.46 ERA (29.2 IP, 18 ER) with 11 walks and 37 strikeouts…in his six road starts this season, López has gone 1-2, 3.00 ERA (36.0 IP, 12 ER) with nine walks and 44 strikeouts, with the Twins going 2-4 those six games…over his career, López is 16-16, 3.64 ERA (313.2 IP, 127 ER) with 90 walks and 305 strikeouts in 55 home starts…in 50 road starts, he is 15-18, 4.33 ERA (262.0 IP, 126 ER) with 72 walks and 265 strikeouts.

Looking for back-to-back home wins for the third time in his career and first time since beating Philadelphia on April 15, 2022 and St. Louis on April 21, 2022 in consecutive starts at loanDepot Park with Miami.

LEFT/RIGHT: López has limited right-handed hitters to a .214 (31-for-145) batting average this season…left-handed hitters are batting at a .240 (23-for-96) clip…his 53 strikeouts against righties are the third most in the American League this year, trailing only HOU’s Framber Valdez (68) and TB’s Shane McClanahan (73)…overall, opposing hitters are batting .224 (54-for-241) vs. López this year, the 16th-lowest opponent batting average among qualified American League pitchers…over his career, he has better numbers against right-handed hitters (.662 OPS) than left-handed hitters (.747 OPS).