MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs (14-11) at Miami Marlins (14-13)

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CHICAGO CUBS NOTES:

The Cubs and Marlins play six games spanning two series this season … following this three-game set in Miami, the clubs meet at Wrigley Field for three games next weekend, May 5-7 … dating to 2016, the Cubs have won four of the last five regular season series against Miami.

SATURDAY AT THE PARK: The Chicago Cubs today play the second of three games against the Miami Marlins after last evening dropping the series opener, 3-2 … the team’s sojourn will continue with four games against the Nationals in Washington D.C., starting Monday.

Chicago’s plus-45 run differential leads the N.L. and is third-best in the majors, trailing only Tampa Bay (+97) and Texas (+57).

The Cubs have played just nine road games this season, the fewest in the majors … tonight is the second game (0-1) of a stretch that sees the team on the road for 16 of 22 contests through May 21.

Chicago last night held leads of 1-0 in the third inning and 2-1 in the seventh only to drop the game in walk-off fashion, 3-2 … the team’s eight losses after holding a lead are tied for second-most in the N.L. this season (Dodgers, 9).

THE FIRST 25: Chicago is 14-11 in its first 25 games of the season, after starting the 2022 campaign with a 9-16 mark through the first 25 contests (and a 9-17 record through 26 games) … here’s a look at the team’s first 25 games of this season compared to 2022:

First 25 REC AVG OBP SLG R/G BB SO ERA IP ER BB SO
2023 14-11 .276 .345 .448 5.5 85 202 3.50 223.2 87 85 234
2022 9-16 .238 .320 .367 4.0 88 219 4.25 216.0 102 80 210

DANSBY’S BEEN DANDY: With two more walks last night, Dansby Swanson has drawn 19 free passes this season, third-most in the N.L., while his 17.4% walk rate is fourth in the N.L. … entering this season, his career walk rate stood at 8.6%.

Swanson reached base safely three times last night, the 11th game this season he’s reached base at least three times … those are the most in the majors.

23 AND COUNTING: Nico Hoerner has reached base safely in his last 23 games dating to April 2 … that’s the third-longest active streak in the majors behind San Diego’s Xander Bogaerts (29) and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (24) … Hoerner’s 23-straight games reaching safely is the longest by a Cub since Anthony Rizzo reached in 23 consecutive games from June 26-July 24, 2019.

The last Cub to reach base safely in at least 24-consecutive games was Kris Bryant, who reached safely in 26-straight games April 17-May 17, 2019.

Since April 4, Hoerner’s .355 average (33-for-94) ranks third in the majors … his 33 hits are the most in the majors during that span.

Hoerner’s 10 steals are tied for third in the N.L., while his 37 hits are third, his 21 runs are tied for fourth and his .333 average is fifth.

A TORRID START: Nelson Velazquez has homered in consecutive games, including a go-ahead solo shot in yesterday’s third inning, and has hit safely in his first five games with an at-bat with Chicago this season … that includes three home runs and six RBI in 20 plate appearances.

In 20 games between Triple-A Iowa and the Cubs this season, Velazquez has hit safely in 17 of those and combined to bat .347 (25-for-72) with six doubles, seven homers, 15 RBI, 18 runs scored, a .427 OBP and a .722 slugging mark.

KILIAN ON THE BUMP: Caleb Kilian is expected to be recalled to make today’s start against the Marlins … Kilian, acquired with outfielder Alexander Canario from San Francisco for infielder Kris Bryant at the 2021 trade deadline, has allowed one run in his last 9.0 innings spanning his two most recent starts with Triple-A Iowa dating to April 9 … he’ll be the seventh Cub to make a start this season.

FLEXING OUR MUSCLES: The Cubs enter tonight having homered in a season-high nine-straight games … it is the team’s longest such streak since a nine-game run, Aug. 13-21 of last season … Chicago aims to go deep in at least 10 consecutive contests for the first time since a 16-game stretch Aug. 23-Sept. 10, 2021.

GOMES’ BAT GETS GOING: Yan Gomes has reached based safely in each of his last 10 games with hits in nine of them, including five multi-hit efforts … he is 17-for-42 (.405) with four home runs, nine RBI, nine runs scored, a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.133 OPS since April 11.

Tuesday he went 4-for-4 and hit his second home run in as many games … he previously homered in back-to-back games June 15-16, 2021 … he tallied four hits in a game for the fifth time in his career (first since Sept. 7, 2022 vs. CIN) and did so without recording an out for the second time (also Sept. 7, 2022).

ARM CARE: Cubs pitching has posted a 3.50 ERA (87 ER/223.2 IP) this season, the third-best mark in the N.L. and sixth in the majors … the starting rotation has a 3.05 ERA (45 ER/133.0 IP), the third-best mark in baseball behind Atlanta (3.02) and Tampa Bay (3.02).

Cubs relievers have posted a 5.22 ERA (17 ER/29.1 IP) in the team’s last eight games after opening the year with a 3.67 ERA (25 ER/61.1 IP) through the first 17 contests … the ‘pen has averaged 11.02 strikeouts per 9.0 innings, the second-best mark in the majors (Cardinals are first with an 11.39 rate).

TWO STRIKES? SO WHAT?: The Cubs lead the majors with a .221 average (106-for479), 59 RBI, a .296 on-base percentage and a .365 slugging percentage when batting with two strikes in the count … Chicago’s 15 home runs with two strikes are tied for second-most in the majors behind only the Dodgers (16).

Patrick Wisdom’s six home runs and 10 extra-base hits with two strikes on him lead the majors, while his 11 RBI are tied for the second behind Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies (12) .

Starting Pitcher – #45 RHP Caleb Kilian (0-0, 0.00)
Last Time Out
Caleb tossed 5.0 scoreless innings in his last outing April 19 at Buffalo … has allowed one run in 9.0 innings in his last two starts … recorded a season-high four strikeouts … did not walk a batter for the first time this season.

Date Opp. Result IP H R ER BB SO PC-S Left
4/19 @BUF W, 1-0 5.0 3 0 0 0 4 67-44 1-0

2023 Splits and Season Notes (w/Triple-A Iowa)
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
Home 0-0 30.86 1 1 2.1 9 8 8 1 1
Road 1-0 1.00 2 2 9.0 7 1 1 3 5
AVG vs. LHB: .381 (8-for-21) / AVG vs. RHB: .308 (8-for-26)

Caleb is expected to be recalled to make his fourth career major league start, first in 2023 … has allowed one run in 9.0 innings (1.00 ERA) in his last two starts after surrendering eight runs in 2.1 innings in his first outing this season. © Pitched in two games (one start) in major league Spring Training for the Cubs this season, allowing one run on two hits in 4.0 innings (2.25 ERA).

MIAMI MARLINS NOTES:

MARLINS MINUTE
The Marlins today play the second game of a three-game series against the Cubs. Continues a six-game homestand which also includes a three-game set vs. the Braves from Tuesday-Thursday. Are coming off a seven-game road trip, taking two of three in Cleveland (including a doubleheader sweep last Saturday) and dropping three of four in Atlanta.

• After starting the year 1-4, the Marlins have gone 13-8 since.

• Lost three of four to the Mets in their first home series of the season, but have won seven of ten home games since.

• Are 3-1 in home series openers following the first series against the Mets.

YESTERDAY’S RECAP
Miami secured their first walk-off win of the season with a 3-2 victory over the Cubs in the series opener on Friday night. LHP Jesus Luzardo kept the Cubs to 2 runs in 6.1 innings, allowing 5 hits, 2 walks, and striking out 6. LHP A.J. Puk pitched a scoreless top of the ninth in a 2-2 game, taking the win after 3B Jean Segura (2×4, 2 RBI, BB) drove in the winning run with a bases loaded single to walk it off for Miami in the bottom half.

GREAT IN APRIL
The Marlins’ 13 wins in the month of April beat last year’s 12 wins and are the most since the team moved to Miami. The last time the Marlins had more than 13 wins in April was 2011, when the club went 16-9. The Marlins have only won more than 13 games in the month of April seven times (14 – 2003, 2005, 2009; 15 – 1997, 2004, 2008; and 16 – 2011).

• A win today or tomorrow would secure Miami their second consecutive winning record in April, a feat that had previously not been done since the 2016 Marlins went 12-11.

THE CLUTCH JEAN
3B Jean Segura recorded his 9th career walk-off hit in last night’s game and first since Sept. 6, 2022 vs. Miami as a Phillie Since 2017, Segura has recorded 9 walk-off RBI (8 singles, 1 home run), the most among active players in MLB (credit: MLB Network). In 2021, he collected 4 walk-off RBI, tying a Phillies’ franchise record for a single season and the most since Juan Samuel in 1985.

WALK IT, TALK IT
Last night’s walk-off win marked Miami’s first since July 14, 2022 vs. Pittsburgh (Brian Anderson RBI triple). The Marlins went 5-11 in walk-off games during the 2022 season.

TURNING THE TRENDING TIDE
The Marlins are 8-0 in one-run games in 2023, marking the most consecutive wins in games decided by one run to start a season in franchise history. Are the only team yet to lose a one-run game this season.

• Miami played 64 games decided by one run in 2022, the most such games in the Majors last season. Miami’s 40 one-run losses were the most in a season in club history, the most since the 1975 Astros (41), and just three shy of the single-season record for one-run losses during the Live Ball Era (since 1920) held by the 1968 White Sox (44).

MR. STEAL YOUR BASE
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. has stolen 11 bases this season (in 12 attempts), tied for the most steals in the month of April in club history (also, Luis Castillo, 1997). His team-leading 11 steals rank second in MLB behind only Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 13 stolen bases.

• His 2 stolen bases in the sixth inning last night mark the third time this season he’s recorded multiple steals in a game, tied for the most such occurrences in MLB with Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo, Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, and Pittsburgh’s Ji Hwan Bae.

CATCH US IF YOU CAN
The Marlins have stolen 26 bases this season, the fifth most in the Majors (second in NL). Have been caught just three times, the second-best SB pct. in the Majors (89.6%) behind only Boston (91%). Since the start of the 2020 season, the Marlins have combined to steal 164 bases on the road – the most for any Major League team over the stretch.

GOOD FIRST IMPRESSIONS
2B Luis Arraez has 35 hits in his first 23 games of the year (21 starts), with 11 multi-hit games (tied for third-most in MLB). Only Ronald Acuña Jr. (38), Bryson Stott (38), Nico Hoerner (37), and Bo Bichette (36) have more hits among Major Leaguers. Arraez’s .427 batting avg. (35×82) is tops in the Majors among all qualified hitters, and more than 50 points higher than the second-best (Chapman, .370).

• Trails only Dee Strange-Gordon (41, 2015) for the most hits by a Marlins player through their first 23 gms of a season in club history. His batting avg. is tops in club history through 23 gms.

• Only one Marlins player has owned a .400 avg at the end of April – Dee Strange-Gordon in 2015 (.409).

• His .427 batting avg. is the highest through 23 gms to a season since Charlie Blackmon’s .429 mark in 2020, joining Mike Trout in 2021 and Cody Bellinger in 2019 as the only four players since 2017 to hit .400 or better through 23 games to start the year.

• Has struck out 5x in 93 PA (.061 K/AB), lowest mark in the Majors among qualified batters.

GREAT WHEN LATE
The Marlins offense is batting .287 (86×300) in the seventh inning or later, the second-best mark in the Majors this season behind only Houston (.290). 40 of Miami’s 88 runs scored this year (45%) have come in these final three innings, including 9 of the club’s combined 26 home runs.

DANCING ON A THIN LINE
Thus far in 2023, Miami is 14-0 when limiting opponents to 4 runs or less and has gone 0-13 when allowing 5 or more runs.

OH, WHAT A NINTH
Thursday’s victory was the first time in franchise history the Marlins entered the ninth inning trailing by four or more runs and won the game without going to extra innings. The win marked the team’s largest comeback win since last June 21 vs. Colorado (trailing 4-0, won 9-8) and largest on the road since last June 14 at Philadelphia (trailing 8-4, won 11-9).

• The 5-run ninth inning marked their most runs scored in the ninth since last May 11 at Arizona when they scored 8 runs to break a 3-3 tie.

TODAY’S STARTER – #27 EDWARD CABRERA
• Edward Cabrera, 25, will make his third career start against the Cubs and his sixth start of the 2023 season.

• In 2 starts vs. the Cubs in 2022, went 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA (10.0 IP/ 3 ER). In the first matchup on Aug. 5, 2022, pitched 5.0 no-hit innings with 8 strikeouts in what was his first start back from injury.

• Lefties are hitting .188 (9×48) vs. Cabrera in 2023 with 2 home runs and 13 strikeouts while righties are hitting .286 (10×35) with 1 home run and 11 strikeouts.

• Walked a combined 13 batters in his first 2 starts of 2023. Has walked 7 in last 3 outings.

• Made 14 starts at the Major League level last year after being recalled from Triple-A Jacksonville on May 31, 2022. Was named to MLB.com’s All-Rookie Second Team.

• In 7 starts at home in 2022, went 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA (35.1 IP/18 ER). Posted a 1.49 ERA (36.1 IP/6 ER) in 7 starts away, allowing 10 less hits than at home.

• Made four consecutive scoreless outings (22.2 IP) after returning from injury from Aug. 1 until Aug. 22, becoming the second pitcher in franchise history to make four consecutive scoreless starts, joining Chris Hammond in 1994.

• Set a new career-high with 8.0 innings pitched at Oakland on Aug. 22, 2022.

• In his first start back in almost 2 months on Aug. 5, 2022 tossed 5.0 no-hit innings against Chicago Cubs.

• Was the first pitcher in club history to pitch 6.0 innings or more and allow two hits or less in each of his first two starts of a season.