Venue: Petco Park — San Diego, CA Scheduled
First Pitch: 5:40 PM PT / 8:40 PM ET
Television: Bally Sports North / Bally Sports San Diego / MLB.TV**
Weather Forecast — San Diego, CA
Petco Park is outdoors and pitcher‑friendly, especially at night.
Temperature: 74°F
Wind: 7 mph blowing in from right field
Humidity: 68%
Rain Chance: 0% Conditions: Pitcher‑friendly, suppresses HRs and deep fly balls.
Night games at Petco historically trend low‑scoring.
Injury Report
Minnesota Twins
Royce Lewis — OUT (quad)
Byron Buxton — OUT (knee)
Chris Paddack — OUT (elbow)
Jorge Polanco — OUT (hamstring)
Max Kepler — Day‑to‑day (back)
Jhoan Duran — OUT (forearm)
San Diego Padres
Yu Darvish — OUT (shoulder)
Joe Musgrove — OUT (lat)
Ha‑Seong Kim — OUT (ankle)
Luis Campusano — OUT (thumb)
Jackson Merrill — Day‑to‑day (wrist)
Fernando Tatis Jr. — healthy
Padres are missing rotation depth but retain their offensive core. Twins are missing multiple key bats.
Starting Pitching Matchup
MIN — RHP Dean Kremer
(2026 Season: 8–9, 4.18 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) Kremer has been a steady mid‑rotation arm.
Strengths:
Good fastball/cutter mix
Strong command
Effective vs right‑handed hitters
Weaknesses:
Struggles vs left‑handed power
Padres rank 7th in MLB vs cutters
Vulnerable when behind in counts
Padres vs Kremer profile:
Tatis Jr.: .511 SLG vs RHP cutters
Cronenworth: .288 vs RHP
Profar: .274 vs cutters
SD — RHP Casey Mize
(2026 Season: 10–7, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) Mize has been San Diego’s most reliable starter with Musgrove and Darvish out.
Strengths:
Elite splitter
Strong command
Excellent home splits (2.98 ERA at Petco)
Twins rank 25th in MLB vs splitters
Weaknesses:
Vulnerable to right‑handed pull power
Twins’ best hitters (Correa, Larnach) feast on elevated fastballs
Twins vs Mize profile:
Correa: .302 vs splitters
Larnach: .540 SLG vs RHP fastballs
Miranda: inconsistent vs RHP
Key Player Matchups
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. vs Dean Kremer
Tatis crushes cutters
Petco suppresses HRs but not line‑drive power Edge: Tatis Jr.
Carlos Correa vs Casey Mize
Correa handles splitters well
Mize dominates righties overall Edge: Slightly Mize
Jake Cronenworth vs Twins Bullpen
Twins bullpen ERA: 4.62
Cronenworth thrives vs middle relief Edge: Cronenworth
Trevor Larnach vs Mize
Larnach’s power vs Mize’s elevated fastball Edge: Slightly Larnach
Recent Team Form
Minnesota Twins — Last 10 Games: 4–6
Offense averaging 3.9 runs/game
Bullpen struggling without Duran
Road record: 28–37
Correa heating up (11 hits last 7 games)
San Diego Padres — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Offense averaging 5.1 runs/game
Mize stabilizing rotation
Home record: 38–27
Tatis Jr. + Cronenworth surging
Padres enter significantly hotter and more stable.
Series History
2026 Season Series
First meeting of the season
Last season: Padres won 2 of 3
Mize vs MIN last year: 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Kremer vs SD last year: 5 IP, 3 ER
At Petco Park (Last 3 Years)
Padres lead 6–3
Average total runs: 7.4
Night games trend under
Betting Trends
Minnesota Twins
3–7 in last 10 road games
2–5 in Kremer’s last 7 starts
Under is 6–3 in last 9 Twins games
San Diego Padres
8–3 in last 11 home games
6–1 in Mize’s last 7 starts
Padres ML has hit in 67% of games as home favorites
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Padres have won 5 of last 7
Under has hit in 6 of last 10
Game Odds
Minnesota Twins 8.5
San Diego Padres – 135
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, August 21, 2026
