Venue: Target Center
Location: Minneapolis, Minnesota
Tip‑Off: 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT
Broadcast: ESPN2 / WNBA League Pass
Venue Breakdown — Target Center
Capacity: ~19,000
Court plays neutral‑to‑slow, favoring half‑court execution
Minnesota’s home‑court advantage is elite: strong defensive communication, disciplined rotations, and excellent crowd energy
Phoenix historically struggles here due to Minnesota’s physicality and defensive pressure
Injury Report
Phoenix Mercury
Diana Taurasi — Out (back)
Brittney Griner — Questionable (hip)
Sophie Cunningham — Probable (ankle)
Natasha Cloud — Out (knee)
Minnesota Lynx
Napheesa Collier — Probable (ankle)
Diamond Miller — Out (foot)
Alanna Smith — Questionable (illness)
Lindsay Allen — Probable (hamstring)
Impact:
Phoenix missing Taurasi and Cloud removes veteran leadership and perimeter creation.
Minnesota missing Miller reduces wing scoring, but Collier’s availability keeps their offense stable and efficient.
Team Records & Standings
Phoenix Mercury — 8–16 (5th in West)
Offense: 9th in WNBA scoring
Defense: 10th in defensive rating
Road record: 3–9
Strength: Interior scoring (if Griner plays), veteran experience
Weakness: Perimeter defense, turnovers, inconsistent shooting
Minnesota Lynx — 17–6 (2nd in West)
Offense: 4th in scoring
Defense: 3rd in defensive rating
Home record: 9–2
Strength: Half‑court execution, defensive discipline, Collier’s versatility
Weakness: Depth scoring when Miller is out
Recent Team Form
Phoenix Mercury — Last 5 Games
1–4
Offense: 76.2 PPG
Defense: 85.4 allowed
Trend: Struggling to generate consistent offense; defensive lapses late in games
Minnesota Lynx — Last 5 Games
4–1
Offense: 86.1 PPG
Defense: 78.3 allowed
Trend: Elite defensive stretches; Collier playing at MVP‑level efficiency
Series History
All‑Time: Mercury lead 41–36
Last 10 Meetings: Lynx lead 7–3
2026 Season Series: First meeting
At Target Center: Lynx have won 5 of last 6
Key Note: Minnesota’s physical defense consistently disrupts Phoenix’s perimeter rhythm.
Key Player Matchups
Napheesa Collier (MIN) vs. Brianna Turner (PHX)
Collier: 21.3 PPG, 9.8 RPG, elite two‑way impact
Turner: Strong defender but limited offensively Edge: Collier
Kayla McBride (MIN) vs. Sophie Cunningham (PHX)
McBride: 16.2 PPG, 39% from three
Cunningham: Streaky shooter, inconsistent defender Edge: McBride
Courtney Williams (PHX) vs. Lindsay Allen (MIN)
Williams: 14.1 PPG, mid‑range specialist
Allen: Steady facilitator, strong defender Edge: Slight to Williams
Brittney Griner (PHX) vs. Dorka Juhász (MIN)
(If Griner plays)
Griner: 17.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG
Juhász: Improving defender, strong rebounder Edge: Griner (If Griner sits → major advantage Minnesota)
Statistical Comparison (2026 Season)
| Category | Mercury | Lynx |
| Points per Game | 78.3 | 84.7 |
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 37.1% |
| Rebounds | 33.9 | 36.4 |
| Turnovers | 14.8 | 12.9 |
| Defensive Rating | 105.8 | 100.4 |
Key Insight: Minnesota holds clear advantages in scoring efficiency, rebounding, and defensive consistency.
Betting Trends
Phoenix Mercury
2–8 ATS in last 10 road games
Overs hit in 6 of last 8
Mercury 1–5 ATS vs. teams above .500
Minnesota Lynx
7–3 ATS in last 10 games
Unders hit in 4 of last 6
Lynx 6–1 ATS in last seven home games
Head‑to‑Head Trends
Lynx have covered in 6 of last 8 meetings
Average total last 5 matchups: 164.2 points
Phoenix has lost 5 straight at Target Center
GAME ODDS
Phoenix Mercury 169.5
Minnesota Lynx – 11.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 12, 2026
