Tip‑off: 7:30 PM ET
Venue: CareFirst Arena, 1100 Oak Street SE, Washington, DC 20032
Concise Takeaway
Golden State enters with stronger form, healthier personnel, and superior efficiency metrics, while Washington counters with home‑court advantage, a surging defense, and a recent two‑game win streak. The matchup projects as a tight, possession‑by‑possession contest, but the Valkyries’ perimeter volume and defensive consistency give them a slight edge.
Venue & Game Context
Arena: CareFirst Arena, Washington, DC
Start Time: 7:30 PM ET
Mystics Win Probability: 40.5%
Valkyries Win Probability: 59.5%
Season Phase: WNBA Regular Season
Team Records & Recent Form
Golden State Valkyries (14–7)
Last 5: W–W–W–W–L
Season ATS: 11–9
O/U: 11–9
Road Record: 4–4
Recent Result: 88–83 win vs Atlanta (Jul 4)
46.3% FG, 13/34 from three, +6 rebounding margin
Veronica Burton: 21 pts (6–9 FG), 4 ast
Washington Mystics (10–9)
Last 5: W–W–L–L–W
Season ATS: 10–8
O/U: 10–9
Home Record: 6–5
Recent Result: 81–76 win vs Atlanta (Jul 2)
55% FG, 56% from three, dominant second‑half defense
Shakira Austin: 21 pts, 9 reb, 3 ast
Kiki Iriafen: 14 pts, 10 reb
Injury Report
Golden State Valkyries
I. Rupert (C) — Out for Season (Pregnancy) Team filed replacement contract; out since May 6, 2026.
Washington Mystics
S. Citron (G) — Day‑to‑Day (Knee) Missed July 2 game vs Atlanta.
Series History
Golden State has dominated the recent head‑to‑head:
| Date | Result | ATS | O/U |
| Aug 30, 2025 | GS 99–62 | GS -4 | Over 148.5 |
| Aug 13, 2025 | GS 88–83 | GS -2 | Over 149 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | GS 68–67 | GS +4 | Under 155 |
| May 21, 2025 | GS 76–74 | GS +5 | Under 162.5 |
GS leads last 4 meetings: 4–0 straight up, 4–0 ATS.
Key Matchups
1. Veronica Burton (GS) vs Shakira Austin (WAS)
Burton’s perimeter efficiency (66.7% FG last game) vs Austin’s interior dominance and defensive presence.
Washington needs Austin to control the paint to offset Golden State’s three‑point volume.
2. GS Perimeter Attack vs WAS Defensive Pressure
GS ranks 1st in 3PM (10.9) and 1st in 3PA (31.0) per game.
Washington ranks 3rd in FG% defense (42.9%) and held Atlanta to 23% from three last game.
3. Turnover Battle
GS: 11.3 turnovers per game (1st)
WAS: forces 10.2 steals per game (13th) Golden State’s ball security is a major advantage.
Advanced Team Metrics
Golden State Offense
83.0 PPG (13th)
41.3% FG (15th)
35.1% 3PT (6th)
76.2% FT (11th)
18.3 AST (15th)
Washington Offense
85.7 PPG (7th)
42.9% FG (3rd)
33.4% 3PT (7th)
78.0% FT (7th)
20.1 AST (12th)
Defense Comparison
GS Opp PPG: 78.1 (1st in WNBA)
WAS Opp FG%: 42.9% (elite)
Golden State’s defense is the best in the league, while Washington’s defensive efficiency has surged in recent games.
Betting Trends
GS is 4–0 ATS in last four vs Washington.
GS has won 4 straight entering this matchup.
Washington is 3–2 SU in last five.
Washington’s defense has held opponents under 40% FG in two straight games.
GS overs hit in 11 of 20 games; WAS overs hit in 10 of 19.
GAME ODDS
Golden State Valkyries – 5.5
Washington Mystics 156
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Sunday, July 5, 2026
