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CFB Sugar Bowl Preview: Baylor Bears at Mississippi Rebels

6/6/7 BAYLOR (11-2, 7-2 Big 12) vs. 8/8/8 OLE MISS (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
Jan. 1, 2022 • 7:45 p.m. CT • Watch: ESPN and ESPN App • Listen: ESPN Central Texas & TuneIn App
New Orleans, La. • Caesars Superdome (74,295) • Social Media: @BUFootball | #SicEm

Baylor Bears Notes

STORY LINES
• Baylor takes on Ole Miss in its 3rd Sugar Bowl appearance and its 26th all-time bowl game.
• BU is 1-1 in Sugar Bowl games, beating Tennessee 13-7 (1957) and losing to Georgia 26-14 (2019).
• Baylor is 13-12 all-time in bowl games, including a 2-6 mark on New Year’s Day.
• Baylor is facing Ole Miss for the 2nd time – the Bears won 20-10 in Waco on Sept. 6, 1975.
• Baylor won its 3rd Big 12 Championship (2013, 2014, 2021) and its first in a year with a title game.
• BU has reached the 10-win mark for the 6th time in the last 11 years (2011, 2013-15, 2019, 2021).
• Baylor has tied a school-record with 11 wins (11-2 in 2013 & 2014, 11-3 in 2019, 11-2 in 2021).
• BU has tied a school-record with 4 wins vs. ranked teams (4-1; BU was 4-3 vs. ranked in 1974).
• Baylor is 1 of 4 teams with 4 ranked wins this season – Baylor, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Alabama.
• Baylor’s only losses this season were at Oklahoma State and at TCU. BU had the ball down 3 or fewer points in the 4th quarter of both games before falling 24-14 at OSU and 30-28 at TCU.
• Baylor is 1 of 3 teams to not allow more than 30 points this season (Baylor, Cincinnati, Clemson).
• BU’s defense is holding opponents to 11.9 points/game below their scoring averages in all other games.
• Baylor ranks 9th nationally with 22 fourth-down conversions, including 8 times in its own territory, and BU ranks 17th nationally with a .667 fourth-down conversion percentage (22-of-33).
• The 11 times BU has been stopped on fourth downs have led to 17 points allowed on the opponents’ ensuing drives, while BU has turned the 22 fourth-down conversions into 86 points on those drives.
• BU leads the Big 12 and ranks 16th nationally with 214.7 rushing yards per game after ranking 123rd last season (90.3 ypg). Abram Smith is 8th nationally with 1,429 rushing yards (118 shy of school-record).
• Baylor’s O-Line has allowed only 1.38 sacks per game, 19th-fewest nationally. Half of the 18 sacks allowed came in two games against Oklahoma State (9 sacks allowed vs. 11 other opponents).
• BU ranks 7th nationally in interceptions (16) and 18th nationally in fewest interceptions thrown (6).
• BU’s defense has forced a turnover in 21-straight games and is 6th nationally in turnover margin (+0.85).
• BU is +18 in turnovers in 22 games under Dave Aranda (41 turnovers forced, 23 turnovers allowed).

ADDITIONAL NOTES
• Abram Smith national rushing ranks: 8th in yards (1,429), 17th in yards per carry (6.16), 37th in TDs (12).
• Jalen Pitre is the nation’s only player with 3+ forced fumbles, 3+ fumble recoveries and 2+ interceptions.
• BU had one 10-win season in the program’s first 109 seasons before doing so in 6 of the last 11 seasons.
• Baylor has 89 wins since 2011, tied for 2nd-most in the state of Texas behind only TAMU (92).
• BU is playing in a bowl game for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons following a 15-season drought (1995-2009).
• Baylor has beaten four top-20 teams this season: No. 14 Iowa State, No. 19 BYU, No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 5 OSU.
• Ten different Baylor players have intercepted passes this season, accounting for a Big 12-best 16 INTs.
• The Bears welcomed four new assistant coaches for 2021 – Jeff Grimes (Offensive Coordinator/TEs), Eric Mateos (Offensive Line), Chansi Stuckey (Wide Receivers) and Kevin Curtis (Cornerbacks).
• The Bears added a pair of experienced O-Line transfers with Jacob Gall (13 starts at Buffalo) and Grant Miller (16 starts at Vanderbilt). Four members of the O-Line now have a combined 127 career starts.
• BU is playing its 120th season of football and holds a 620-586-44 (.514) all-time record.
• BU has scored in 187-straight games, doubling the previous school-record of 89 games (Dec. 31, 1979 – Oct. 23, 1987).
• BU stopped Oklahoma State 6 times on the 1-yard line in the 4th quarter of the Big 12 Championship game.
• Baylor’s 3 Big 12 Championships are second-most in league history and have all come in the last 9 years. The rest of the state of Texas has 5 Big 12 titles – Texas (1996, 2005, 2009), TCU (2014), and Texas A&M (1998).
• BU’s win over No. 4 Oklahoma was its first top-5 win since 2015 at No. 4 Oklahoma State.
• BU scored 21 unanswered to overcome an 11-point 3rd-quarter deficit in a 31-24 win over Texas.
• BU had 534 yards of offense and played its first-ever penalty-free game in the win over No. 19 BYU.
• BU defeated No. 14 Iowa State on Sept. 25 for its first ranked win since 2015.

OLE MISS SERIES/SUGAR BOWL HISTORY
• Baylor and Ole Miss are meeting for the 2nd time. BU won 20-10 when the teams met in Waco on Sept. 6, 1975.

• BU held Ole Miss to 192 total yards, including 85 yards on 40 rushing attempts. The Bears ran for 340 yards on 53 attempts, led by Cleveland Franklin (140 rushing yards) and Pat McNeil (135 rushing yards).

• Baylor is 1-1 in Sugar Bowl games – a 13-7 win over Tennessee (1956) and a 26-14 loss to Georgia (2019).

NEW YEAR’S DAY BOWL HISTORY
• Baylor is 2-6 all-time on New Year’s Day, with wins in the 1949 Dixie Bowl and 1956 Sugar Bowl.

YEAR BOWL GAME MATCHUP RESULT SITE
1949 Dixie Bowl Baylor vs. Wake Forest W, 20-7 Birmingham, Ala.
1952 Orange Bowl #5 Georgia Tech vs. #9 Baylor L, 14-17 Miami, Fla.
1957 Sugar Bowl #2 Tennessee vs. #11 Baylor W, 13-7 New Orleans, La.
1975 Cotton Bowl #7 Penn State vs. #12 Baylor L, 20-41 Dallas, Texas
1981 Cotton Bowl #9 Alabama vs. #6 Baylor L, 2-30 Dallas, Texas
2014 Fiesta Bowl #15 Central Florida vs. #6 Baylor L, 42-52 Glendale, Ariz.
2015 Cotton Bowl #7 Michigan State vs. #4 Baylor L, 41-42 Arlington, Texas
2020 Sugar Bowl #5 Georgia vs. #8 Baylor L, 14-26 New Orleans, La.

POTENT GROUND ATTACK
• BU leads the Big 12 in rushing offense (215 ypg – 16 more per game than any other team), yards per rush (5.26), rushing TDs (28) and first downs from rushing (146 – 21 more than any other team).
• Baylor needed only 3 games to surpass last season’s rushing totals (813 yards, 8 TDs).
• With 2,791 rushing yards and 28 rushing TDs, Baylor has more than tripled last season’s numbers.
• Baylor rushed for at least one touchdown and ran for more than 100 yards in all 12 regular-season games.
• Abram Smith leads the Big 12 with 6.16 yards per rush, .12 yards better than any other player. He also ranks 2nd in the league with 1,429 rushing yards and ranks 4th in rushing TDs (12).
• Smith ranks 8th nationally with 1,429 rushing yards and 37th nationally with 12 rushing TDs.
• Smith also ranks 17th nationally in rushing yards per carry (6.16), while Trestan Ebner ranks 53rd (5.37).
• The Bears have combined for 12 100-yard rushing efforts in their 13 games, after not having any 100-yard rushers during the 2020 season – Smith (8), Trestan Ebner (2), Taye McWilliams (1) and Gerry Bohanon (1).

FOURTH DOWN SUCCESS
• Baylor leads the Big 12 with 22 fourth-down conversions, four more than any other team in the league (WVU-18).
• BU is 22-of-33 on fourth downs (67%). Out of 26 teams with 30+ fourth-down attempts, Baylor’s 67% conversion rate is 6th-best behind Northern Illinois (83%), Air Force (78%), East Carolina (70%), Army (69%) and Navy (69%).
• Baylor’s 33 fourth-down attempts are 3rd-most among Power-5 schools behind Ole Miss (42) and Rutgers (35).
• Baylor has converted 73% of its attempts on 4th-and-3 or less (19-of-26 converted).
• The 11 times Baylor has been stopped on fourth downs have led to only 17 points allowed on the opponents’ ensuing drives, while the Bears have turned the 22 fourth-down conversions into 86 points on those drives.
• Baylor is 8-of-10 on fourth-down conversions in its own territory, with both failed attempts vs. Oklahoma State.
• The Bears are 8-for-9 converting 4th-and-3 or less on their own side of the field, with the only failed attempts on 4th-and-4 (own 36) at Oklahoma State and 4th-and-1 (own 36) vs. Oklahoma State.
• Out of the 10 fourth-down attempts in its own territory, the eight conversions have led to 45 points for Baylor’s offense, while the BU defense has allowed 7 total points on the two ensuing possessions after failed attempts.

BEARS AMONG NATION’S BEST DEFENSES
• Baylor is 1 of 3 programs to limit every opponent to 30 or fewer points – Baylor, Cincinnati and Clemson.
• Baylor’s defense leads the Big 12 in turnovers forced (24), interceptions (16) and fewest passing TDs allowed (12) and ranks 2nd in the league in scoring defense (19.2) and pass efficiency defense (124.4).
• BU held Oklahoma to its lowest scoring (14) and yardage (260) outputs in 5 years under Lincoln Riley. Baylor became the first Big 12 team to hold OU without a passing TD since Nov. 22, 2014 (snapping a 65-game streak).
• The Bears held Kansas to 57 passing yards, the 2nd-fewest by a BU defense in Big 12 play in the last 20 seasons, eclipsed only by the 54 passing yards allowed to Texas in the 2013 de-facto Big 12 Championship game.

SEEKING FIRST 12-WIN SEASON IN PROGRAM HISTORY
• The Bears have tied a school-record with 11 wins (11-2 in 2013, 11-2 in 2014, 11-3 in 2019, 11-2 in 2021).
• Baylor has recorded the 7th 10-win season in program history. BU had one 10-win season in the program’s first 109 years (10-2 in 1980) before reaching the 10-win mark in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2021.
• The Bears are appearing in a bowl for the 10th time in 12 seasons since snapping a 15-year streak without a bowl bid between the 1994 Alamo Bowl and the 2010 Texas Bowl.
• Baylor’s 10 bowls in 12 years is unprecedented in program history. Baylor’s first 10 bowl games were over a 33-year span (1948-1980) and its 10 most recent bowls prior to 2010 were over a 32-year span (1963-1994).

WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE
• Baylor has forced nearly twice as many turnovers as it has allowed in 22 games under head coach Dave Aranda.
• BU has 41 takeaways (28 INTs, 13 FR) and only 23 giveaways (14 INTs, 9 FL) in 22 games under Aranda.
• Baylor has scored seven non-offensive touchdowns in 22 games under Aranda – three kickoff returns (Ebner x 3), three interception returns (Pitre x 2, Woods) and one fumble return (Woods).

BEARS TIED FOR SECOND-MOST WINS IN TEXAS IN LAST 10+ YEARS
• Baylor has won 89 games since 2011, tied for second-most among the state of Texas’ 12 FBS teams.
• BU’s 89 wins in the last 10+ years trail only Texas A&M (92), are tied with Houston (89) and lead TCU (85), Texas (78), SMU (65), Texas Tech (62), UTSA (60), North Texas (60), Rice (49), UTEP (38) and Texas State (36).

RANKED IN 9 OF LAST 12 SEASONS
• Baylor is ranked No. 6 in the latest AP Top 25, marking its eighth-straight week top-20 ranked and earning its highest ranking since Nov. 8, 2015 (No. 4).
• Baylor has now been ranked in the AP Top 25 in 9 of 12 seasons since 2010, after going 17 years between national rankings (1993-2010). BU has been ranked in 23 of 25 spots since 2013 (exceptions No. 1 and No. 23).
• The Bears climbed from receiving no votes in the AP poll in any of the first three weeks to No. 21 after

 

Mississippi Rebels Notes

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

Ole Miss is making its second straight bowl appearance under Lane Kiffin.
• The Rebels rank 21st all-time among Division I teams with 39 bowl appearances.
• Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games on the field dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl.
• The Rebels are one of four SEC schools and 16 nationally to make a New Year’s Six bowl game in three or more years since its inception in 2015.
• Ole Miss and Baylor are meeting for just the second time on the football field.
• Baylor won the lone meeting between the two schools with a 20-10 victory, in 1975, in Waco, Texas.
• Ole Miss ranks as the fourth most-improved defense in the FBS, allowing 13.3 less points this season compared to 2020.
• Ole Miss is the only team in the nation with four players with 500 or more rushing yards this season.
• Ole Miss ranks sixth nationally with 3.3 sacks per game.
• Ole Miss’ 39 sacks this year are the second-most in program history, just two shy of the school record (41) set in 1999.
• QB Matt Corral ranks top 20 nationally in eight different categories: total offense (328.0), passing yards (3,339), passing yards per game (278.2), completion percentage (.684), yards per pass attempt (8.8), completions per game (21.7), passing efficiency (157.5) and points responsible for (188).
• Corral is one of only four FBS QBs with at least 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing TDs.
• WR Braylon Sanders leads the SEC and ranks third nationally in yards per reception (22.3).
• WR Dontario Drummond needs 76 more receiving yards to surpass the 1,000-yard mark in a season.
• DL Sam Williams has a school record 12.5 sacks on the season … He’s ranked fourth in the FBS in sacks.
• LB Chance Campbell is fourth in the SEC with 8.4 tackles per game.

OLE MISS HEAD COACH LANE KIFFIN
Lane Kiffin (Fresno State, 1998) is in his second season at Ole Miss and helped lead the Rebels to their first 10-win regular season in program history. Kiffin’s second year in Oxford was once again highlighted by one of college football’s most exciting offenses. For the second straight season, the Rebels lead the SEC in total offense at over 500 yards per game heading into bowl season. Ole Miss has eclipsed 600 yards of total offense seven times under Kiffin after hitting that mark just 16 times in the program’s history before his arrival. However, in year two, Kiffin proved he isn’t just a one-dimensional coach. The Rebel defense ranks as one of the top-five most-improved units in the FBS, allowing 13.3 fewer points per game this season compared to 2020. Kiffin is in his 10th year at the NCAA level and has posted an all-time record of 76-41. In December 2016, Kiffin took over an FAU program that had won a total of nine combined games over the previous three seasons. Kiffin proceeded to take the Owls to new heights over the last three years, including two conference titles and two 10-win seasons. In his head coaching stops at USC, Tennessee and FAU, Kiffin has shown a propensity in helping turn programs around. Kiffin graduated from Fresno State in 1998 after playing quarterback for three seasons (1994-96) for the Bulldogs.

BAYLOR HEAD COACH DAVE ARANDA
A 2020 National Champion and 25-year coaching veteran, Dave Aranda was named the 28th head coach in Baylor Football history on  Jan. 16, 2020. After a COVID-affected 2-7 debut season a year ago, Aranda led the Bears to their third Big 12 title in program history, a program-record-tying 11 wins and a Sugar Bowl appearance. In just his second season in Waco, Aranda was also named Big 12 Coach of the Year and is a finalist for the Paul “Bear” Bryant Coach of the Year and Eddie Robinson Coach of the Year Awards. Widely considered one of the top defensive minds in all of football, Aranda came to Baylor after four seasons as associate head coach and defensive coordinator at LSU, including a 2020 National Championship and a 2019 SEC Championship. In six seasons as a defensive coordinator at Power 5 schools, Aranda’s defenses ranked in the Top 12 nationally in total yards five times. His defenses also ranked among the top 10 in scoring four of his final seven years. Prior to joining LSU, Aranda served as defensive coordinator at Wisconsin (2013-15), defensive coordinator at Utah State (2012) and defensive coordinator and defensive line coach at Hawaii (2008-11).

BAYLOR SCOUTING REPORT
After knocking off No. 7 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game, Baylor punched its ticket to its second Sugar Bowl appearance in the last three seasons. The Bears are looking for their first 12-win season in program history. This season, Baylor is 4-1 against top-25 teams, including wins over BYU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor boasts one of the most balanced offenses in the country, averaging 214.7 yards rushing and 216.0 yards passing per game. Gerry Bohanon commanded the Bears’ offense, throwing for 2,165 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2021, but the signal-caller went down in week 12 with a leg injury. Redshirt freshman Blake Shapen led Baylor in the final three games of the season, passing for 571 yards and five scores down the stretch. Abram Smith has been the workhorse back, ranking eighth nationally with 1,429 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns this season. Trestan Ebner has also seen time in the backfield and out wide, recording over 1,685 all-purpose yards through 13 games. Receiver Tyquan Thornton is just shy of the 1,000-yard mark with 946 yards and nine scores this season. Defensively, Baylor led the Big 12 with 16 interceptions and ranks 14th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 19.2 points per game. Consensus All-American Jalen Pitre leads the defense with 70 total tackles, including a team-high 14 for loss.

 

RECENT BOWL SUCCESS
• Ole Miss is 12-2 on the field in its last 14 bowl games dating back to a 13-0 win over Air Force in the 1992 Liberty Bowl.
• The Rebels had a streak of six straight bowl wins snapped at the 2014 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl with a loss to TCU.
• Ole Miss’ only other loss in the last 13 came during the 2000 Music City Bowl, falling 49-38 to West Virginia.

HOW SWEET IT IS: REBELS RETURN TO ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
This will mark Ole Miss’ 10th appearance in the Sugar Bowl, the fourth-most among all college football programs. Only Alabama, LSU and Georgia have made it to the famed New Orleans destination more times than Ole Miss. This is the Rebels’ first Sugar Bowl appearance since 2016 when Ole Miss defeated No 16 Oklahoma State, 48-20. Ole Miss made eight appearances from 1953-70, winning five of them. The Rebels will take on a current Big 12 opponent for the 15th time in their bowl history and the third time overall in the Sugar Bowl. Besides the 2016 Sugar Bowl win over Oklahoma State, the Rebels defeated Texas, 39-7, in the 1958 Sugar Bowl.

REBELS VERSUS BIG 12 OPPONENTS
• Ole Miss has a 15-12 record against current members of the Big 12 Conference.
• The Rebels will take on a current Big 12 opponent for the 15th time in their bowl history … Ole Miss is 10-4 in such games.
• The Rebels are 2-0 against Big 12 teams in the Sugar Bowl (Oklahoma State, 2016 & Texas, 1958).
• The Rebels’ last game against a Big 12 team was a 47-27 victory over Texas Tech in the 2018 AdvoCare Texas Kickoff.
• The Rebels vs. current Big 12 teams:

 

PICK YOUR POISON
Ole Miss is the only team in the nation with four players with 500 or more rushing yards this season (Jerrion Ealy [703yds], Snoop Conner [605yds]), Matt Corral [597yds] and Henry Parrish Jr. [542yds]. The foursome has combined for seven 100-yard rushing performances this season.

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