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CFB Preview: BIG 12 Championship

Dr. Pepper Big 12 Championship

Saturday, December 4, 11:00 a.m. CT ~ ABC
Arlington, Texas ~ AT&T Stadium (64,451 capacity)
No. 9 Baylor vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State
Series Record: OSU 22-18
Last Meeting: OSU 24-14 on Oct. 2, 2021 in Stillwater.

BAYLOR BEARS NOTES

STORY LINES
• Baylor makes its second Big 12 title game appearance at 11 a.m. CT Saturday vs. Oklahoma State.

• Since the Big 12 Championship game was reinstated in 2017, Baylor is the only school to earn title game berths after being picked in the lower half of the Big 12 preseason media poll (6th in 2019, 8th in 2021).

• Baylor is 18-22 all-time vs. OSU, including a 2-1 mark in neutral sites (last neutral meeting in 1983).

• Baylor is seeking its 3rd Big 12 Championship (2013, 2014), but its first in a year with a title game.

• BU has reached the 10-win mark for the 6th time in the last 11 years (2011, 2013-15, 2019, 2021).

• BU can tie a school-record with an 11th win – BU went 11-2 in 2013 and 2014 and 11-3 in 2019.

• BU is coming off a 27-24 win vs. Texas Tech, the Bears’ 3rd-straight game with 35+ minutes TOP.

• Baylor controlled the ball for 77% of the 2nd half (22:57) vs. TTU, running 54 plays to Tech’s 22.

• Baylor is 1 of 6 teams with 3 ranked wins this season – Baylor, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi State. BU looks to tie a school-record with a 4th ranked win (4-3 in 1974).

• Baylor’s only losses this season were at Oklahoma State and at TCU. BU had the ball down 3 or fewer points in the 4th quarter of both games before falling 24-14 at OSU and 30-28 at TCU.

• Baylor is 1 of 5 teams to not allow more than 30 points this season (BU, UGA, Cincy, Clemson, Iowa).

• BU’s defense is holding opponents to 11.6 points/game below their scoring averages in all other games.

• Baylor is 1 of 6 Power-5 teams ranked top-30 nationally in scoring offense and defense (BU, Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Utah). BU is 30th in offense (33.4) and 17th in defense (19.4).

• Baylor ranks 7th nationally with 22 fourth-down conversions, including 8 times in its own territory, and BU is the only Power-5 team with at least one 4th-down conversion in every game this season.

• BU’s offense ranks 5th nationally with 5.48 yards per rush and 17th nationally with 6.55 yards per play.

• BU is 8th nationally with 227.4 rushing yards per game after ranking 123rd last season (90.3 ypg).

• Baylor’s O-Line has allowed 12 sacks, tied for 9th-fewest nationally (5th in Power-5).

• Baylor’s defense has forced a turnover in 20-consecutive games and the Bears are +16 in turnovers in 21 games under Dave Aranda (37 turnovers forced, 21 turnovers allowed).

 

ADDITIONAL NOTES
• Baylor is making its 2nd Big 12 Championship game appearance, joining Oklahoma as the only teams with multiple appearances since it was reinstated in 2017. The Bears lost 30-23 in overtime against Oklahoma in 2019.

• Abram Smith national rushing ranks: 7th in yards (1,366), 12th in yards per carry (6.35), 32nd in TDs (12).

• Jalen Pitre is the nation’s only player with 3+ forced fumbles, 3+ fumble recoveries and 2+ interceptions.

• Baylor’s offensive line has allowed only 6 sacks in the Bears’ last 206 attempts to pass (last 7 games).

• BU had one 10-win season in the program’s first 109 seasons before doing so in 6 of the last 11 seasons.

• Baylor has 88 wins since 2011, 3rd-most in the state of Texas behind TAMU (92) and Houston (89).

• BU is bowl-eligible for the 10th time in the last 12 seasons following a 15-season drought (1995-2009).

• This year is the first time Baylor has defeated 3 ranked teams in the first 10 games of a season since 1974.

• Eight different Baylor players have intercepted passes this season, accounting for a Big 12-best 12 INTs.

• The Bears welcomed four new assistant coaches for 2021 – Jeff Grimes (Offensive Coordinator/TEs), Eric Mateos (Offensive Line), Chansi Stuckey (Wide Receivers) and Kevin Curtis (Cornerbacks).

• The Bears added a pair of experienced O-Line transfers with Jacob Gall (13 starts at Buffalo) and Grant Miller (16 starts at Vanderbilt). Four members of the O-Line now have a combined 123 career starts.

• BU is playing its 120th season of football and holds a 619-586-44 (.513) all-time record. Baylor has scored in a school-record 186-straight games, doubling the previous record of 89 games from Dec. 31, 1979 – Oct. 23, 1987.

• The Bears are the only team ranked in the Big 12’s top-3 in scoring offense (3rd) and scoring defense (2nd).

• BU’s win over No. 4 Oklahoma was its first top-5 win since 2015 at No. 4 Oklahoma State.

• BU scored 21 unanswered to overcome an 11-point 3rd-quarter deficit in a 31-24 win over Texas.

• BU had 534 yards of offense and played its first-ever penalty-free game in the win over No. 19 BYU.

• BU defeated No. 14 Iowa State on Sept. 25 for its first ranked win since 2015.

OKLAHOMA STATE SERIES HISTORY
• Baylor and OSU are meeting for the 41st time and the first time at a neutral site since the 1983 Bluebonnet Bowl.

• Baylor is 18-22 all-time against Oklahoma State, including 7-14 in Stillwater, 9-7 in Waco and 2-1 at neutral sites.

• BU is 6-4 against Oklahoma State in the last 10 meetings after starting 1-15 against OSU as Big 12 opponents.

• The three previous neutral-site meetings were in Wichita Falls (1938 – Baylor won 20-6), Oklahoma City (1942 – Baylor won 18-12) and Houston (1983 Bluebonnet Bowl – Oklahoma State won 24-14).

POTENT GROUND ATTACK
• BU leads the Big 12 in rushing offense (227 ypg – 28 yards more than any other team), yards per rush (5.48 – .25 more than any other team), rushing TDs (28) and first downs from rushing (139 – 19 more than any other team).

• Baylor needed only 3 games to surpass last season’s rushing totals (813 yards, 8 TDs) and only 7 games to more than double last season’s rushing totals with 1,668 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs.

• Abram Smith leads the Big 12 with 6.35 yards per rush, .31 yards better than any other player. He also ranks 2nd in the league with 1,366 rushing yards and ranks 4th in rushing TDs (12).

• Smith ranks 7th nationally with 1,366 rushing yards and 32nd nationally with 12 rushing TDs.

• Smith also ranks 12th nationally in rushing yards per carry (6.35), while Trestan Ebner ranks 51st (5.45).

• The Bears have combined for 12 100-yard rushing efforts in their first 12 games, after not having any 100-yard rushers during the 2020 season – Smith (8), Trestan Ebner (2), Taye McWilliams (1) and Gerry Bohanon (1).

FOURTH DOWN SUCCESS
• Baylor leads the Big 12 with 22 fourth-down conversions, four more than any other team in the league (WVU-18).

• BU is 22-of-32 on fourth downs (69%). Out of 33 teams with 27+ fourth-down attempts this season, Baylor’s 69% conversion rate is 4th-best behind only Air Force (78%), East Carolina (72%) and Army (71%).

• Baylor has converted 76% of its attempts on 4th-and-3 or less (19-of-25 converted).

• The 10 times Baylor has been stopped on fourth downs have led to only 10 points allowed on the opponents’ ensuing drives, while the Bears have turned the 22 fourth-down conversions into 86 points on those drives.

• BU has attempted a 4th-down conversion in its own territory 9 times this season and been stopped only once • The Bears are 8-for-8 converting 4th-and-3 or less on their own side of the field, with the only failed attempt on 4th-and-4 (own 36) in the 4th quarter at Oklahoma State.

• Out of the nine fourth-down attempts in its own territory, the eight conversions have led to 45 points for Baylor’s offense, while the BU defense forced a 3-and-out punt immediately after the lone failed attempt.

BEARS AMONG NATION’S BEST DEFENSES
• Baylor is 1 of 5 programs to limit every opponent to 30 or fewer points – BU, Georgia, Cincinnati, Clemson and Iowa.

• Baylor’s defense leads the Big 12 in interceptions (12) and ranks 2nd in the league in scoring defense (19.4), completion percentage allowed (59.9), pass efficiency defense (127.8) and passing TDs allowed (12).

• Baylor’s defense has allowed only 217.4 passing yards per game in 21 games under head coach Dave Aranda.

• BU held Oklahoma to its lowest scoring (14) and yardage (260) outputs in 5 years under Lincoln Riley. Baylor became the first Big 12 team to hold OU without a passing TD since Nov. 22, 2014 (snapping a 65-game streak).

• The Bears held Kansas to 57 passing yards, the 2nd-fewest by a BU defense in Big 12 play in the last 20 seasons, eclipsed only by the 54 passing yards allowed to Texas in the 2013 de-facto Big 12 Championship game.

SEVENTH 10-WIN SEASON IN PROGRAM HISTORY
• Baylor has recorded the 7th 10-win season in program history. BU had one 10-win season in the program’s first 109 years (10-2 in 1980) before reaching the 10-win mark in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2019 and 2021.

• The Bears are looking to tie a school-record with 11 wins (11-2 in 2013, 11-2 in 2014, 11-3 in 2019).

• The Bears are bowl-eligible for the 10th time in 12 seasons since snapping a 15-year streak without a bowl bid between the 1994 Alamo Bowl and the 2010 Texas Bowl.

• Baylor’s 10 bowls in 12 years is unprecedented in program history. Baylor’s first 10 bowl games were over a 33- year span (1948-1980) and its 10 most recent bowls prior to 2010 were over a 32-year span (1963-1994).

WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE
• Baylor has forced nearly twice as many turnovers as it has allowed in 21 games under head coach Dave Aranda.

• BU has 37 takeaways (24 INTs, 13 FR) and only 21 giveaways (14 INTs, 7 FL) in 21 games under Aranda.

• Baylor has scored seven non-offensive touchdowns in 21 games under Aranda – three kickoff returns (Ebner x 3), three interception returns (Pitre x 2, Woods) and one fumble return (Woods).

BEARS HAVE THIRD-MOST WINS IN TEXAS IN LAST 10+ YEARS
• Baylor has won 88 games since 2011, third-most among the state of Texas’ 12 FBS teams.

• BU’s 88 wins in the last 10+ years trail only Texas A&M (92) and Houston (89), and lead TCU (85), Texas (78), SMU (65), Texas Tech (62), North Texas (60), UTSA (59), Rice (49), UTEP (38) and Texas State (36).

 

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS NOTES

Game Notes

The Basics
Aiming for its second Big 12 title since 2011, the Oklahoma State football team (11-1 overall; 8-1 Big 12) faces Baylor (10-2 overall; 7-2 Big 12) in the Dr Pepper Big 12 Championship Game at 11 a.m. CT on Saturday, December 4, in AT&T Stadium.

On the Air
The game will be televised by ABC with Sean McDonough, Todd Blackledge and Molly McGrath on the call. It will also be carried live on the Cowboy Radio Network, with Dave Hunziker handling play-byplay, John Holcomb providing analysis and Robert Allen reporting from the sideline. Fans outside of the Cowboy Radio Network can listen to the OSU broadcast for free through The Varsity Network app.

In the Rankings
Oklahoma State was No. 7 in last week’s College Football Playoff rankings, and this week’s will be released Tuesday. Entering this week, OSU has been included in 15 consecutive CFP polls dating to November 5, 2019, and the Cowboys have been in the CFP rankings in six of the last seven seasons. OSU is No. 5 in this week’s AP Top 25 – its highest AP rank since being No. 4 in week 12 of 2015 and continuing a streak of 14 consecutive seasons in the poll. The streak, which began in 2008, is the 10thlongest active streak in the nation. Including this season, OSU has appeared in the top 15 of the AP poll in 12 of the past 14 seasons. It has had a top 10 ranking in the AP poll at some point in 10 of those 14 years. The Cowboys are also No. 5 in this week’s USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll. Baylor was No. 8 in last week’s CFP rankings and is No. 9 in this week’s AP Top 25 and No. 9 in the coaches poll.

Eyes on the Prize – Conference Championships
Although the Oklahoma State football program has won 11 conference titles dating to 1926, the 2021 Big 12 Championship Game will mark the first appearance in a postseason conference championship game in school history, as each of the Cowboys’ previous titles were won in a format that did not include a championship game. OSU’s previous 11 conference championships include the Missouri Valley title in 1926, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, 1944, 1945, 1948 and 1953, the Big Eight title in 1976 and the Big 12 title in 2011.

Twice in One Season – A Rare Occurrence
Saturday’s game will mark a rare occurrence in the history of Oklahoma State football, as it will be the first time OSU has played the same opponent twice in the same season since Oklahoma Agricultural and Mechanical College (OAMC; now Oklahoma State) faced Central State Normal School (now Central Oklahoma) in the first game and in the final game of the 1908 season, with a split series. It happened seven times prior to that as well, but OSU has never beaten one team twice in a season.

Another Top-10 Matchup
Saturday’s game marks just the second AP top-10 clash between Oklahoma State and Baylor (2015). It is also the 13th time in OSU history that the Cowboys have played in a game against any opponent in which both teams were ranked in the AP top 10. OSU’s wins in those games:
12/28/1984 No. 9 OSU vs. No. 7 South Carolina W, 21-14
9/24/2011 No. 7 OSU at No. 8 Texas A&M W, 30-29
1/2/2012 No. 3 OSU vs. No. 4 Stanford W, 41-38 (OT)
11/27/2021 No. 7 OSU vs. No. 10 Oklahoma W, 37-33

Additionally, the Cowboys have a chance to do something Saturday that has only happened one other time in school history. With last week’s win over Oklahoma and a win over Baylor this week, OSU would have beaten an AP top-10 team in back-to-back games for the first time since wins over No. 5 Oklahoma and No. 10 Missouri on Oct. 23 and Oct. 30 of 1976.

The Series
Saturday’s game marks the 41st overall meeting between Oklahoma State and Baylor in a series that dates to 1914. Including 2021, the two teams have faced off for 26 consecutive years, beginning with the first season of Big 12 Conference play in 1996. OSU holds a 22-18 all-time advantage in the series, with Baylor winning two of the three neutral site matchups. Those matchups include a 1938 game in Wichita Falls, Texas, a 1942 game in Oklahoma City and the 1983 Bluebonnet Bowl matchup in Houston, Texas. OSU has won 19 of the past 26 over Baylor, and a win over the Bears Saturday would give the Cowboys a three-game winning streak vs. BU for the first time since OSU won six straight from 2006-11. Coach Mike Gundy is 10-7 in his career against Baylor, while at 0-2, Baylor coach Dave Aranda is yet to beat Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State from a Distance
Oklahoma State is 11-1 on the year, is the only FBS team with two wins over opponents ranked in the top 10 of the current College Football Playoff ranking and joins Georgia and Alabama as the only teams with four wins over opponents ranked in the AP top 25 at the time of the game. The Pokes have improved each week as the year has gone and most believe that a win over highly-ranked Baylor  Saturday would cement the Cowboys’ place in the CFP. They have beaten their past five opponents by a combined score of 202-56.  SU has a 6-1 mark against FPI top-50 opponents (with a 10.8 points-per-game margin). Its lone loss came on the road by three points to a preseason AP top-10 team. Its ESPN Strength of Record is No. 5 nationally and FiveThirtyEight’s ELO ranking lists OSU as the No. 4 team in the FBS. Following the most recent results, FiveThirtyEight gives OSU a 97 percent chance to reach the CFP with a win Saturday.

The Oklahoma State defense has performed at a historic level all season. OSU now leads the nation in sacks, tackles for loss and third down defense, and is also among the FBS leaders in total defense (No. 3), scoring defense (No. 5), first downs defense (No. 5), rushing defense (No. 6), passing efficiency defense (No. 10) and much more.

Although the defense has garnered most of the headlines, the Cowboy offense has taken its game to the next level of late. Over the past five weeks, the Cowboys have averaged more than 40 points and more than 456 yards of offense per game. When it comes to play in conference games only, Oklahoma State ranks No. 1 in the Big 12 in rushing offense, No. 2 in total offense and No. 3 in scoring offense.

When it comes to ranking how Power Five teams perform against Power Five teams, OSU ranks No. 9 nationally in rushing offense, No. 11 nationally in scoring offense and No. 16 nationally in total offense. In short, OSU is peaking on both sides of the ball.

An Oklahoma State Win Would …

• Secure its 12th conference championship since 1926 and it first since 2011. It would also mark OSU’s second Big 12 title – tied for the third most in the history of the conference.

• Make it a one-loss Big 12 champion. Each of the last three one-loss Big 12 champions have earned a spot in the CFP.

• Give the Cowboys three wins over teams ranked in this week’s AP Top 13.

• Mark its fifth over an opponent ranked in the AP Top 25 this season. To this point, only Oklahoma State, Georgia and Alabama have four AP top 25 wins.

• Mark the Cowboys’ sixth win over an opponent with a winning record this season.

• Mark the Cowboys’ eighth win over a bowl-eligible opponent this season.

• Give it wins vs. AP top-10 opponents in back-to-back games for the second time in school history.

• Tie the school record for most wins in a season. OSU also won 12 games in 2011.

• Make it 15-5 in its past 20 games vs. AP Top 25 teams.

• Mark the Cowboys’ 10th win over an AP Top 10 team since 2008.

• Make it 14-1 in its past 15 games overall, dating back to the 2020 season.

• Mark Mike Gundy’s 36th career win vs. AP Top 25 opponents. Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney are the only other active coaches with more wins over AP Top 25 teams at their current schools.

• Give it two wins against one opponent in the same season for the first time in school history.

• Mark the fifth win in school history in a game between two teams ranked in the AP Top 10.

• Make it 148-67 in its history when playing as an AP-ranked team.

• Make it 136-38 in its history when playing as a higher AP-ranked team than its opponent.

• Make it 8-2 in its past 10 games when both teams are ranked in the AP Top 25.

• Improve it to 30-22 vs. AP ranked teams since the beginning of the 2011 season.0

Notable Streaks and Trends Entering the Game
• OSU is averaging more than 40 points and more than 450 yards of offense in its past five games.

• OSU has outscored its last five opponents by a combined margin of 202-56, which amounts to an average score of 40-11.

• In its last five games, OSU has thrown 12 touchdown passes against just three interceptions.

• OSU has given up just four offensive touchdowns in the last 20 quarters of play.

• OSU has held its last five opponents to 12-for-71 on third down (16.9 percent).

• OSU has held three of its last five opponents under 2.9 yards per play.

• OSU has held three of its last five opponents under 150 yards of total offense. No other FBS teams has held three opponents under 150 yards this season.

• OSU has held six of its last 10 opponents under 100 yards rushing.

• OSU has held seven of its last nine opponents under 200 yards passing.

• OSU has held 21 of its last 23 Big 12 opponents under their season scoring average.

• OSU has won 79 consecutive games when holding its opponent to fewer than 20 points, dating back to Sept. 13, 2003 – the longest active stretch of time in the FBS and longest since at least 1980.

• OSU has held its opponent scoreless on its game-opening drive in 23 of its past 29 games.

• OSU has held its opponent to less than a 50 percent third down conversion rate in 23 straight games.

• OSU has held its opponent to fewer than 20 first downs in 10 games this season.

• Malcolm Rodriguez has recorded at least five tackles in 19 of his last 20 games.

• OSU is 31-11 in its past 42 games decided by fewer than 10 points.

• OSU is 39-6 in its last 45 games when leading at halftime, dating back to Sept. 17, 2016.

• Dating back to 2005, OSU is 43-4 when not committing a turnover.

• Dating back to 2008, OSU is 69-8 when winning the turnover battle.

• OSU has won three of its last four overtime games.

• OSU has forced 25 turnovers in its past 16 games.

More Historic Notes on the Defense
While the season numbers speak for themselves in terms of how the Oklahoma State defense is performing, here is some added context:
• Oklahoma State’s 23-0 win over Texas Tech marked the first time the Red Raiders had been shut out since 1997 and ended TTU’s scoring streak at 302 consecutive games — a streak that was the eighth-longest in the nation at the time. It was Tech’s first time being shut out at home since 1987. The Cowboys limited Texas Tech to 108 yards of total offense in the game – its lowest output since 1990.

• OSU held TTU to 1.9 yards of offense per play, it was the Cowboys’ best performance against any team since at least 2000. The next best performance was 2.0 against FCS Savannah State in 2012.

• OSU had eight sacks vs. WVU to mark the second most in a game in school history and the most for OSU since 2004. Eight sacks matches the highest total against any Power Five conference team in a game this season.

• OSU held Kansas to 0-for-13 on third down attempts and did not allow the Jayhawks to record a first down until the 9:16 mark of the third quarter, after OSU’s starters exited the game.

• OSU held opponents without a touchdown over 11 consecutive quarters from the first quarter vs. Kansas through the third quarter vs. TCU.

• OSU’s 49 quarterback sacks is a single-season school record.

Keep it Under 100
The OSU defense has been outstanding this season and has now held opponents to under 100 yards of total offense in a half in 11 of its 24 halves played this season.

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