Monday, December 23, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Washington Nationals (28-46) at San Diego Padres (36-39)

WASHINGTON NATIONALS NOTES:

No team release available.

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Padres avoid 4-game sweep in San Francisco, shut out Giants 10-0 on Thursday

  • San Diego avoided being swept in 4 games for the 1st time since 2017 with their 10-0 shutout win over San Francisco yesterday afternoon…it was the Padres’ 21st shutout win in club history in which they plated double-digit runs (and their 1st since August 2, 2007 vs. Arizona, won 11-0).
  • Starter Blake Snell extended his career-long quality start streak to 5 games, tossing 6.0 scoreless innings with 3 hits allowed on 11 punchouts and 0 walks…it was his 4th start this year going 6.0+ scoreless, and he trails just Michael Wacha’s Major League-most 6 such starts for the most on the team.
  • Gary Sánchez and Manny Machado both hit 3-run home runs, and Ha-Seong Kim also added a solo homer…they went 5-for10 with RISP, more than their 4 overall in the last 3 games of the San Francisco series.

Starting Strong

  • Yesterday in San Francisco, Blake Snell turned in the Padres’ 4th quality start in their last 6 games played, and San Diego starters have the 3rd-best ERA in the National League this year at 4.03.
  • Prior to the month of June, the Friar rotation had the 13th-best ERA in MLB (4.34), the 14th best WHIP (1.31), and the 15th best opponent OPS (.733)…since the start of June, however, they have the 3rd-best ERA in MLB (3.14), the 3rd-best WHIP (1.09), and the 3rd-best opponent OPS (.621).
  • Also since June 1st, the Padres starters have the lowest opponent hard hit percentage in all of baseball (33.1%)…San Diego starters also have MLB’s lowest opponent hard-hit % this year (34.8%).

Homerin’ vs. the Nats

  • Since the start of last season vs. Washington, the Padres have out-homered the Nationals 16-9, and the +7 home run differential against the Nats since 2021 is their best against any opponent in that time (Sportstrader).

When scoring 5+ runs

  • The Padres are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5-or-more runs in a game, and that winning percentage when scoring at least 5 is the 2nd highest in the Majors to just the Braves (39-3, .929)…the Nationals have allowed 5+ in 32 games this season, the 3rd-most in MLB…they are 7-25 (.219) when doing so

Tough to square up Joe

  • Starter Joe Musgrove has the 3rd-lowest opponent hard-hit percentage (29.4%) among pitchers who have worked at least 50.0 innings this season, and over his last 5 starts (since May 26) he has induced a 19.5% hard-hit percentage, the softest contact among all pitchers with at least 25.0 innings pitched…fellow Padres’ starter Blake Snell’s 24.5% hard-hit percentage is the 2nd best since May 26.
  • In his 1st 5 starts of the season, Musgrove went 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.58 WHIP…in his 5 starts since May 26, however, he has gone 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP…the Padres are 4-1 in Joe’s last 5 outings.

Southpaw Sluggin’

  • The Padres’ 79 extra-base hits against southpaws tie with the Braves for the Major League lead, and their 32 homers vs. LHP rank 4th.
  • Manny Machado’s .381 clip against left-handers rank 3rd among qualifying players in MLB (behind just ATL Ozzie Albies’ .405 and CWS Luis Robert Jr.’s .389)…his previous best season vs. left-handers was in 2016 (hit .329), but he’s hitting a career-low .212 against right-handers this season.

STARTING PITCHER – #44 JOE MUSGROVE

Musgrove in search of first career win vs. WSH
Joe Musgrove aims for his 1st career winning decision in his 6th career start vs. the Nationals…he has just 1 quality outing vs. the Nats, which came in his lone start vs. WSH last season on Aug 20 at Petco Park (6.0 IP, 4 H, ER) in SD’s 2-1 win.

Musgrove quality again last Sun vs. TB
In his first action vs. TB since ’17 w/ HOU, Musgrove posted his 4th quality outing in his last 5 starts with 6.0 IP of 6-hit, 2-run ball in SD’s 5-4 victory…it was just his 6th career start with only 1 SO, and just the 2nd time he got through 6.0 frames with only 1 punchout…a winning decision tonight would mark the 1st time he’s earned a win in 3 straight outings since June 3-16, 2022…he earned the win in a career-high 4 straight outings from April 14-May 1, 2022.

Since May 26
Over his last 5 starts since May 26 @ NYY, Musgrove is 4-0 with 4 quality starts, a 2.15 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .243 opp. AVG…among all qualifying pitchers since May 26, he ranks T-3rd in wins (4), 5th in run support average (7.98), 8th in HR/9 IP ratio (0.31) and 11th in ERA.

Petco Park’s finest
He’s made 34 road app. (33 starts) since joining SD compared to his 35 home app (all starts)…on the road, he is 15-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .223 AVG…he is 1 of 13 pitchers who have made at least 35 career starts in Petco history (including Postseason), and Joe ranks 3rd in ERA (2.90), trailing only Andrew Cashner (2.76) and Jake Peavy (2.80)…his 1.13 WHIP ranks T-4th with Blake Snell, Mat Latos and Cashner, trailing only Yu Darvish (0.96), Peavy (1.09) and Chris Young (1.12) in downtown SD history…his .227 opp. AVG ranks 6th.

Breaking bad
Yu Darvish (2,758 rpm) and Joe Musgrove (2,723 rpm) have the 2nd and 3rd-highest spin rates on breaking balls, respectively, among all NL pitchers since the start of last season (min. 1,250 pitches)…they trail only ATL’s Charlie Morton (3,072 rpm).

Musgrove’s chase rate, avg exit velocity and hard hit% among best in Majors
Joe’s 36.5 chase % this season is a career high and ranks in the 97th percentile…it’s the highest chase rate among all NL hurlers (min. 200 PA), and trails only MIN’s Joe Ryan (37.6%)…his 85.7 mph avg exit velocity trails only his 85.1 mph from the shortened 2020 campaign and ranks in the 95th percentile…among all hurlers (min. 200 PA), he trails only teammate Nick Martinez (83.9 mph), Justin Steele (84.7) and Shohei Ohtani (85.6)…his 29.4 hard hit% is a career-best and ranks in the 92nd percentile….it trails only Martinez (27.7%), and Steele (28.0%) – min. 200 PA.

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