Monday, December 23, 2024
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MLB Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (27-25) at Minnesota Twins (26-25)

TORONTO BLUE JAYS NOTES:

THE LATEST: The Blue Jays took the premier of three games in Minnesota with a 3-1 win last night…Improved to 10-7 in series openers…Are now 9-2 against AL Central opponents. Toronto has won two of its last four games but is 3-9 across its last 12 contests…Has been outhit in just four of those 12 games…Can end its skid of three consecutive series losses with a win today.

KEVIN!: Kevin Kiermaier sparked Toronto’s offense last night with a two-out, solo home run in the 3rd inning… Marked his 4th longball of the campaign and was also the 800th hit of his career…Later notched his 3rd triple of the season, marking his 4th game this season with multiple extra-base hits, one shy of the AL leaders (five players)…Now has 16 extra-base hits for the year, eclipsing his total from 2022 (15) in 21 fewer games. The center fielder has reached base safely in all but one of his 19 games played this month…His .368 (25- for-68) average for the month of May is 3rd best among qualified AL hitters…His 40 hits while batting 9th are the most in the Majors (2nd: three players – 25).

KKKKKKKKEVIN!: Kevin Gausman claimed his 1st career win vs. Minnesota with 5.1 innings of one-run ball last night… Allowed four hits and a season-high five walks while striking out eight batters…Has racked up an AL-high 89 strikeouts (2nd: Shohei Ohtani – 80), which is also the most ever by a Blue Jay in his first 11 games of a season (2nd: Robbie Ray – 82 in 2021)… Is now 3rd in the AL in innings pitched (68.1) and 10th in ERA (3.03).

BO-ING THE DISTANCE: Bo Bichette tacked on two runs in the 3rd inning with a two-run homer to straightaway center…Was his team-leading 10th longball of the season…Also singled as part of a 2-for-4 night…His 21 multi-hit games lead all AL hitters (2nd: Marcus Semien – 18) and are tied with Freddie Freeman (21) for the MLB lead. The 25-year-old has extended his hitting streak to six games, going 12-for-27 (.444) with two extra-base hits and three RBI over that stretch…Leads all MLB hitters with 73 hits and leads the AL with 114 total bases (2nd: Luis Robert Jr. – 102)…His .326 batting average is currently 2nd in the junior circuit (1st: Yandy Díaz – .333)…Now has 85 hard-hit (95+ MPH) balls this season, trailing only teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (89) for the AL lead.

SPRINGER HAS SPRUNG: George Springer doubled in the 1st inning and again in the 3rd last night…Finished 2-for-4 with a run scored… Marked his 12th multi-hit effort of the season and his 2nd game with two extra-base hits, both coming on this road trip (triple and home run on May 23 at TB). The right fielder has reached base multiple times in six of his last seven starts (13-for-29, 4BB)…Has gone 25-for-80 (.313) with three doubles, a triple, four home runs, 12 RBI, and an 11BB/11K ratio during his last 21 contests (.921 OPS)…Has raised his season batting average by 39 points since May 2nd (from .216 to .255).

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: The Blue Jays are on a seven-day, seven-game road trip (2-3 so far)…Own a 14-16 road record this season for a .467 win% (9th in the AL)…After this weekend series in Minnesota, will have Monday off before playing a brief three-game homestand against the Brewers (27-24). Blue Jays hitters lead the Majors with 287 road hits (2nd: NYM – 257)…Rank 2nd in the AL in road AVG (.268), 2nd in road SLG (.439), 2nd in road OPS (.771) and 3rd in road OBP (.331)…The pitching staff ranks 12th in the AL in road ERA (4.56), 13th in road opponents’ batting average (.261), and 14th in road WHIP (1.39).

GO WHIT IT: Whit Merrifield picked up a pair of singles in a 2-for-4 evening…Marked his 11th multi-hit game of the season and the 3rd of his last four starts…Is now batting .291 for the season, 13th among AL hitters and currently his best since hitting .302 during his 2019 All- Star campaign.

RELIEF WORKERS: Toronto’s bullpen combined for 3.2 scoreless innings last night, as Erik Swanson (1.0), Tim Mayza (0.2), and Nate Pearson (1.0) all earned holds before Jordan Romano claimed his 11th save of the year (T-4th in the AL)…Mayza and Swanson joined Yimi García for the team lead in appearances this season (24), all tied for 3rd most among AL pitchers.

HITTING IT: The Blue Jays have notched 482 hits this season, trailing only Tampa Bay (486) for the most in MLB… Are currently 3rd in the AL in team AVG (.265), 4th in OBP (.332), 4th in OPS (.752), and 6th in SLG (.420). The Blue Jays are one of two AL teams who have scored in every game this season (also: LAA)…Have gone 70 straight games without being shut out, the 2nd-longest active streak in the Majors (LAA – 93G).

QUITE A STRETCH: The Blue Jays are in the midst of playing 17 games in 17 days, their most consecutive days with scheduled games this season…Have gone 6-9 so far…Their opponents over this 17-game stretch (ATL, NYY, BAL, TB, MIN) have a combined record of 158-101 (.610).

VS. THE TWINS: All-Time: 231-180
2023: 1-0 Road: 112-98
Road: 1-0 Target Field: 28-16
The Blue Jays went 3-4 against the Twins last season, including a split of the four games in Minnesota…Their all-time .562 win% vs. the Twins is their best vs. any AL opponent (2nd: .542 vs. BAL)…Have gone 28-16 at Target Field for a .636 win%, 2nd best among AL clubs to New York’s .651 (28-15).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had hits in all seven games against the Twins last season, going 10-for-30 (.333) with a double, four home runs, and eight RBI (.767 SLG)…In 17 career meetings, has hit .254 (17-for-67) with two doubles, five homers, 10 RBI, and seven walks for an .832 OPS.

Bo Bichette also recorded 10 hits vs. Minnesota last year, going 10-for-31 (.323) with four doubles, two home runs, and five RBI (.989 OPS)…Is now a career 20-for-64 (.313) with five doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI over 15 games (.901 OPS).

Whit Merrifield leads all current Blue Jays with 105 career games played against his former division rivals…Has batted .299 (129-for-431) with 34 doubles, three triples, five home runs, and 47 RBI along the way (.774 OPS).

STARTING PITCHER – Chris Bassitt, RHP #40
TODAY’S GAME: Making his 11th start of the season and his 6th on the road…Allowed 6 runs (2 earned) across 6.1 frames of work his last time out, on 5/22 at TB…Had his career-best scoreless innings streak ended at 28.0…Marked the 2nd-longest single-season streak in franchise history (Roger Clemens: 33.0 IP from 8/15-9/5/98), and the 3rd-longest overall (Dave Stieb: 34.0 IP from 9/13/88-4/5/89). Ranks 3rd in the AL with a .186 opponent average this year…Has held opposing RHH to a .154 AVG, the 2nd-lowest mark in the Majors. Over his last 9 starts, has gone 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA (12 ER/59.0 IP) and a 0.93 WHIP.

2023 HIGHLIGHTS: Tossed 7.0 shutout innings on 5/17 vs. NYY, giving up 3 hits, a walk, and a hit batter with 7 strikeouts…Became just the 4th non-opener in Blue Jays history to throw 3 consecutive scoreless starts in a single season, joining Roger Clemens (1998), Al Leiter (1995), and Dave Stieb (1988). Threw a complete game shutout on 5/12 vs. ATL, the 2nd CG SO of his career (also: 5/27/21 vs. LAA), and the 1st nine-inning complete game shutout by a Blue Jay since Mark Buehrle on 6/3/15 at WAS…Scattered 2 hits, 2 walks, and 2 hit batters while striking out a season-high 8 on 103 pitches (70 strikes). Improved to 4-2 on the year on 5/5 at PIT…Threw a then season-high 7.0 shutout innings, scattering 4 hits and 4 walks with 5 strikeouts. Logged 6.1 innings of work on 4/24 vs. CWS, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits, while walking 3 and recording 4 strikeouts…Left the game in the 7th with right lower back tightness…Was his 4th straight quality start, going 3-1 with a 2.19 ERA (6 ER/24.2 IP) over that span. Picked up his 2nd win of the year on 4/18 at HOU, throwing 6.1 innings of shutout ball with 3 hits, a walk, and 5 strikeouts…Marked his 3rd straight quality start, and his 1st scoreless outing of the season. Earned his 1st win as a Blue Jay on 4/7 at LAA, allowing 3R/2ER on 2 hits and 5 walks over 6.0 frames with 5 strikeouts. Took the loss in his Toronto debut on 4/2 at STL, giving up career highs in runs (9) and homers (4) over 3.1 innings (10H, 0BB, 0K).

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 1-3 through four games on their current six-game, seven-day home- stand, going 1-2 against the Giants earlier this week, followed by a loss to the Blue Jays last night…today, Minnesota will continue the homestand/series with game two of the three-game series…after tomorrow afternoon’s finale, the Twins will travel to Houston for a quick three-game series/road trip against the Astros from Monday-Wednesday…the Twins have gone 15-11 at Target Field and 11-14 on the road…Twins have a run differential of +28 (126-98) at home and +15 (105-90) on the road.

OFFENSE QUIET AGAIN ON A FRIDAY NIGHT: The Twins lost to the Blue Jays last night at Target Field by a score of 3-1…Louie Varland (2-1) was the starter and loser, allowing three runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with no walks and three strikeouts…all three runs allowed came in the third inning on three-consecutive extra-base hits from Kevin Kiermaier (home run), George Springer (double) and Bo Bichette (home run)…Emilio Pagán pitched 2.0 scoreless innings of relief with three strikeouts…the offense recorded five hits and walked a season-high nine times…Kyle Garlick drove in the club’s only run with a sixth inning double.

Last night marked the first time the Twins lost while drawing nine-plus walks in a game sine September 14, 2020 at Chicago-AL, losing 3-1…they have lost just five games since 2010 when drawing at least nine walks.

BLUE JAY WAY: The Twins and Blue Jays are playing each other for the second of six times this season…the Twins will play three games in Toronto from June 9-11…the Twins have won the season series over Toronto four-straight seasons (4-3 in 2017, 4-2 in 2018, 4-3 in 2019 and 4-3 in 2022).

The Twins have gone just 33-50 vs. the Jays since 2010…from 2010-16 they were 14-34, but have gone 19-16 since 2017.

Byron Buxton began his career hitting .329 (28-for-85) with a 1.093 OPS in his first 22 games against the Jays, but has since gone 1-for-16 (.063) with a .336 OPS in his last five games.

Carlos Correa is hitting .311 (28-for-90) with four doubles, six home runs, 19 RBI and a .948 OPS in 23 career regular season games vs. the Jays…has reached safely in eight straight vs. Toronto.

SLAP THE BASS-ITT, BIG TIME: Individual lifetime numbers vs. Toronto starter Chris Bassitt: Carlos Correa is 4-for-13 (.308) with one double, four walks and a .500 on-base percentage… Joey Gallo is 4-for-11 (.364) with two home runs, two walks and a 1.000 slugging percentage.

Twins have never dealt Bassitt a loss (1-0) in six career games (3 starts).

CALL TO ARMS: Twins pitchers have posted a 3.39 ERA (459.0 IP, 173 ER) with 155 walks, 506 strikeouts, a .225 opponent batting average and a .656 OPS…they lead baseball in strikeouts and opponent batting average, and rank second in ERA and opponent OPS.

The staff combined to strike out six batters last night, snapping a franchise-record six-straight games with double-digit strikeout totals…since the streak started on May 19, they have 74 strikeouts (10.9 K/9.0 IP) in seven games.

The Twins pitchers have 221 strikeouts this month, sixth-most for May in club history with their most being 260 in 2019…their record for any month is 274, done in April.

SUPER STARTERS: Twins starters have averaged 5.6 innings-per-outing, up from 4.8 in 2022… below are Twins starting pitching ranks in all of baseball:

INNINGS ERA BAA WHIFF% FIP WHIP K’s OPS
TOR – 295.1 TB – 2.89 TB – .218 HOU – 30.1 TB – 3.33 SEA – 1.16 MIN – 317 TB – .619
CWS – 291.0 TEX – 3.20 MIN – .228 ATL – 29.3 MIN – 3.34 HOU – 1.17 CWS – 296 SEA – .648
TEX – 289.1 MIN – 3.24 SEA – .234 MIN – 27.9 SEA – 3.47 MIN – 1.18 TOR – 292 MIN – .654
SEA – 288.1 HOU – 3.29 TEX – .235 LAA – 27.6 ATL – 3.70 TEX – 1.20 HOU – 290 TEX – .670
MIN – 286.1 ATL – 3.43 NYY – .239 CIN – 27.5 HOU – 3.70 TB – 1.21 ATL – 285 ATL – .697

DON’T STOP RELIEVIN’: The Twins bullpen has posted a 1.71 ERA (21.0 IP, 4 ER) with seven walks, 35 strikeouts and a .213 opponent batting average in their last six games…they struck out a season-high 10 batters on Wednesday afternoon vs. San Francisco, their most in a nine-inning game since fanning 11 on October 2, 2021 at Kansas City.

The ‘pen has the fourth-lowest home run-per-9.0 IP ratio in baseball at 0.78…they also rank fourth in opponent batting average (.221) and sixth in opponent OPS (.658).

On Wednesday afternoon, Jhoan Duran threw three pitches at 104-plus mph, hitting 104.6 (foul ball by Wilmer Flores), 104.4 (foul ball by Flores) and 104.0 (swinging strike by Casey Schmitt)…they marked the fastest pitches by a Twin in the Statcast Era (since 2015)…to the right are the pitchers to reach 104+ in the pitch-tracking era.

TOO CLOSE: The Twins have played 14 one-run games this season, going 4-10 in such in- stances, tied for the fourth-most losses in baseball…they have played 36 games within two runs, going 21-15 in those games, eighth-most wins in baseball…they have played 25 games within three runs, going 14-11 in those.

Of the Twins’ 26 wins, eight have been by more than four runs and 18 have been by four runs-or-fewer.

C4, IGNITING: Carlos Correa went 1-for-3 with two walks last night and has now reached safely in each of his last 13 games, hitting .292 (14-for-48) in that span, with a .424 on-base percentage (14 hits & 11 walks), six doubles, one home run, nine RBI and a .903 OPS…Correa’s current streak is his longest since reaching in 20-straight from September 13-October, 2022… his career-long is 27, from June 10-July 15, 2017 with Houston.

Correa has drawn eight walks in his last five games and 11 walks in his last 13 games, since May 10…since that date, his 11 walks are tied for fifth-most in the AL.

He has reached base multiple times five times in his last seven home games, hitting .357 (10-for-28) with a 1.080 OPS in that stretch.

LEARNING TO WALK AGAIN: The Twins have walked 181 times this season, tied with Tampa Bay for second most in the AL, trailing Baltimore (198)…additionally, they have seen 3.93 pitches-per-plate appearances, second most in the AL, trailing Seattle (3.94).

This month, they have drawn and AL-most 92 walks…Byrxon Buxton has drawn 15 of those, sixth most in the AL in May.

FELIZ CUMPLEAÑOS, LA MAKINA!: Former Twin and current Jays pitcher José Berríos is celebrating his 29th birthday today…he shares a birthday with White Sox infielder Yoán Moncada (28), Hall of Famers Frank Thomas (55) and Jeff Bagwell (55), actor Jack McBrayer (50) and musician/actor Andre 3000 (48).

ICYMI: Former Twins first baseman/outfielder Charles “Cotton” Nash passed away on Tuesday at the age of 80…he played a total of 10 games for the Twins from 1969-70, going 3-for-13 with two RBI and three walks.

STARTING PITCHER – PABLO LóPEZ 49
2023: 2-3, 3.90 ERA CAREER: 30-34, 3.93 ERA

Making his 11th start and appearance and fifth home start of 2023 in his sixth major league season (Miami – 2018-22)…also his 105th career appearance (all starts).

Facing Toronto for the second time in his career; took a no-decision with Miami on September 2, 2021 in his only previous start vs. the Blue Jays (4.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 9 K).

Acquired by the Twins from Miami on January 20, 2023, along with infielder Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio, in exchange for infielder/outfielder Luis Arraez

LAST TIME OUT: Took the loss despite recording a quality start against the Los Angeles Angels on May 21 at Angel Stadium, a 4-2 Twins loss…faced right-hander Shohei Ohtani, who did not factor into the decision…went 6.0 innings, allowed two runs on five hits, with three walks and nine strikeouts… allowed a sacrifice fly to infielder Gio Urshela in the bottom of the fourth inning…recorded inning-ending strikeouts with two runners on base in both the first and fifth innings to hold the Angels scoreless in those frames…walked pinch hitter Matt Thaiss to start the bottom of the seventh and was relieved by Jorge López, who allowed two runs to score in the inning…Twins dropped the finale to lose the three-game series two games to one.

Struck out nine batters, his second-highest total of the season (10 on April 11 vs. Chicago-AL).

Through 10 starts this season, López is among the American League leaders in several statistical categories, including strikeouts (75 – T-3rd), FIP (3.59 – 14th), WAR (1.3 – 14th) and WHIP (1.10 – 14th).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took a no-decision in the Twins 9-8 defeat in 12 innings vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 15 at Dodger Stadium, opposite Noah Syndergaard; marked his third-straight no-decision… pitched 4.2 innings, allowing five earned runs on five hits, with no walks and four strikeouts…allowed a career-high-tying three home runs, a two-run shot by catcher Will Smith in the first inning and two homers from infielder Max Muncy (solo homer in the first inning, two-run homer in the third)… was relieved by Brock Stewart with two outs in the fifth inning and the Twins trailing 5-2; marked his second-shortest start of 2023 (4.0 innings pitched vs. Washington on April 22)…Twins fell in the 12th inning when Jorge López issued a bases-loaded walk to designated hitter Trayce Thompson.

LÓPEZ VS. TORONTO: Facing the Blue Jays for the second time in his career and first time since June 2, 2021 with Miami…took a no-decision after pitching 4.0 innings and allowing two runs on five hits, with one walk and nine strikeouts…his nine strikeouts tied three other starts for his highest total during the 2021 season despite throwing only 4.0 innings, tied for his fourth-shortest start that year; marks the only outing in Marlins history (since 1993) where a pitcher recorded nine-or-more strikeouts while going 4.0-or-fewer innings…the game was played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo, NY, Toronto’s home stadium for the portions of the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

In nine career starts vs. American League East opponents, López has gone 2-4, 3.06 ERA (50.0 IP, 17 ER) with eight walks and 56 strikeouts…is 0-4, 4.09 ERA (33.0 IP, 15 ER) in his last six starts against the AL East, with his teams going 0-6 in those games…seeking his first victory vs. an AL East team since he won at Baltimore on August 4, 2020 with Miami (5.0 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K).

SATURDAY TARGET RUN: Today is López’s fifth home start of the year…Minnesota has won three of his four home starts, with López going 1-1, 5.25 ERA (24.0 IP, 14 ER) with eight walks and 31 strikeouts… in his six road starts this season, López has gone 1-2, 3.00 ERA (36.0 IP, 12 ER) with nine walks and 44 strikeouts, with the Twins going 2-4 those six games…over his career, López is 15-16, 3.59 ERA (308.0 IP, 123 ER) with 87 walks and 299 strikeouts in 54 home starts…in 50 road starts, he is 15-18, 4.33 ERA (262.0 IP, 126 ER) with 72 walks and 265 strikeouts.

Looking for his first home win since defeating Kansas City on April 28 at Target Field (6.0 IP, 8 H, 6 R/ER, 1 BB, 7 K).

LEFT/RIGHT: López has limited right-handed hitters to a .214 (28-for-131) batting average this season…left-handed hitters are batting at a .236 (21-for-89) clip…his 48 strikeouts against righties are tied for the fifth most in the American League with teammate Sonny Gray…overall, opposing hitters are batting .223 (49-for-220) vs. López this year, the 14th-lowest opponent batting average among qualified American League pitchers…over his career, he has better numbers against right-handed hitters (.660 OPS) than left-handed hitters (.744 OPS).

PITCH BREAKDOWN: Used a five-pitch mix in his first 10 starts this season, according to Baseball Savant…has exclusively used his sinker against right-handed hitters, favoring his changeup and curveball when facing left-handed hitters…recorded strikeouts with all five of his pitch types in his last start on May 21 at Los Angeles-AL (sweeper – 3, curveball – 3, four-seam fastball – 1, sinker – 1, changeup – 1)…here is a look at his 2023 arsenal:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (95.0)……………..35.6% (335 pitches, 175/160)….. .269 (18-for-67), 3 2B, 5 HR, 23 K
Sweeper (83.9)…………………………21.7% (204 pitches, 181/23) .. .182 (8-for-44), 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 17 K
Changeup (88.4)………………………21.0% (198 pitches, 79/119) …… .107 (6-for-56), 1 2B, 1 HR, 22 K
Sinker (94.4) …………………………….12.0% (113 pitches, 113/0) ………….. .286 (8-for-28), 2 2B, 3 K
Curveball (81.7)………………………….9.7% (91 pitches, 13/78) ….. .360 (9-for-25), 1 3B, 1 HR, 10 K

Lopez’s changeup has accumulated a run value of -7 this year, tied with SF’s Logan Webb for the best run value on a changeup in baseball, according to Baseball Savant…threw changeups at 91.6 and 91.2 mph in his last start on May 21 at Los Angeles-AL, the third- and fourth-fastest changeups, respectively, that he has thrown in his career, per Statcast. Threw a 97.6 mph four-seam fastball to outfielder Mike Trout in the first inning of his last start, the second-fastest pitch of his career, according to Statcast…in his first 10 starts, López has an average fastball velocity of 94.8 mph, a 2.1 mph increase from last season and the largest year-to-year jump of his career.

CUTTING TO THE CHASE: López ranks in the 94th percentile in all of baseball with a 35.2 percent chase rate, his highest in any season of his career…ranks third among Twins pitchers in chase rate this season (Joe Ryan – 37.5, Griffin Jax – 35.3)…also owns a career-high 31.0 percent whiff rate this year…his 40.4 percent whiff rate on sweepers is tied for eighth in all of baseball (min. 25 plate appearances)…his 29.9 percent whiff rate on four-seam fastballs is fifth best on Minnesota’s staff (min. 25 plate appearances).

SHAKY STARTS, THEN SMOOTH SAILING: López allowed two hits in the first inning of his last start at Los Angeles-AL on May 21 but held the Angels scoreless; marked just the fourth time in his 10 starts this year that he allowed zero runs in the first inning…nine of López’s 26 runs allowed (34.6 percent) and 17 of his 49 hits allowed this season have come in the first inning…here are his numbers in the first inning compared to all other innings combined this season:

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