MLB Preview: Toronto Blue Jays (18-13) at Boston Red Sox (18-14)

0
152
Boston Red Sox logo

TORONTO BLUE JAYS NOTES:

A NOT SO LONG, LONG TIME AGO…: The Blue Jays dropped the 3rd match of their 4-game set in Boston last night by an 8-3 final…Have lost a season-worst four straight games, their longest losing streak since a four-game skid from July 7-10, 2022… Slipped to an even 3-3-0 in road series this year. Toronto has won eight of its last 14 games and 17 of its last 27…Need a win today to avoid being swept for the first time this season…Hasn’t been swept in a series of at least four games at Fenway Park since going 0-5 from July 1-4, 2002.

…IN A GALAXY VAR, VAR AWAY: Daulton Varsho opened the scoring last night with a solo home run to lead off the 2nd inning…Was his 4th longball of the season, all of which have come on the road…Homered in consecutive games for the first time as a Blue Jay, and the 8th time in his career…Also singled in the 4th frame, finishing the game 2-for-4, his 7th multi-hit effort of the year. Has reached base safely in 18 of 19 road games this season, batting .254 (18-for-71) with five doubles, four homers, and nine RBI…Owns an .818 OPS as a visitor this year, compared to a .389 mark at Rogers Centre.

THE FORCE IS STRONG WITH THIS ONE: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. crushed a solo bomb in the 3rd inning on Wednesday, sending a 450-foot shot over the Green Monster and out of Fenway Park…Was his 6th home run of the year, and his longest since a career-best 467-foot blast on April 10, 2022…Also picked up a single in the 7th, going 2-for-4 on the night for his 11th multi-hit game of the season, tying him for 3rd most in the AL. The 24-year old is now 39-for-123 with six doubles, six homers, 18 RBI, and a 13BB/16K ratio for a .317 AVG (5th in the AL), a .393 OBP (4th), and a .905 OPS (11th)…His 39 hits are 4th most in the AL while his 63 total bases rank T-9th…Has recorded 59 hard-hit balls (95+ MPH) this season, four more than any other Major League hitter (2nd: Acuña/Goldschmidt – 55).

THIS IS THE KK: Kevin Kiermaier picked up his 4th double of the season in the 5th inning last night before coming around to score on a balk Two batters later…Is now batting .277 (23-for-83) with four doubles, two triples, a home run, and eight RBI (.735 OPS)…His 23 hits while Batting 9th are the most in the Majors (2nd: Michael A. Taylor – 21), while his 12 runs scored from that position trail only J.P. Crawford (14) for the most.

THE CHOSEN NONE: Kevin Gausman takes the hill for his 7th start of the year tonight…Has allowed no earned runs in four of his six starts this season, including each of his last two… Enters the evening with a 15.2 inning scoreless streak, the 3rd-longest active run among MLB starters…Sits 4.1 frames shy of his career-best scoreless streak (20.0 IP from Aug. 23-Sept. 9, 2016). The 32-year old ranks 4th among all MLB hurlers with 54 strikeouts this year, the most punchouts in a pitcher’s first six starts of a season in TOR history (2nd: J.A. Happ – 50K in 2018)…Also sits 3rd in the AL in strikeouts per nine (12.57), 6th in ERA (2.33), 7th in innings pitched (38.2), and 10th in WHIP (1.01).

GREAT, KID. DON’T GET BLOCKY: Entering play on Thursday, Alejandro Kirk is level with William Contreras and J.T. Realmuto with six blocks above average each this season, pacing all Major League catchers…Danny Jansen has registered three BAA, good for T-7th among MLB backstops.

ALDERAAN THE ROAD AGAIN: The Blue Jays are on a 10-day, nine-game road trip with four contests in Boston, three in Pittsburgh (20-11), and two in Philadelphia (15-17)…Their 19 road games played are tied with three other clubs for the most in the Majors…Own a 9-10 road record this year, the 8th-best road win % among AL teams (.474%). Blue Jays hitters lead the AL in road hits (167) while ranking 4th in road AVG (.250), 5th in OBP (.321), 5th in SLG (.407), and 6th in OPS (.728)…The pitching staff ranks 13th in the AL in road WHIP (1.41), 14th in road opponents’ batting average (.276), and 14th in road ERA (5.06).

REBELLIONS ARE BUILT ON ROPES: The Blue Jays have notched 271 hits so far this season, 3rd most in the AL…Are also 5th in the AL in team batting average (.254), 6th in OBP (.330), 6th in OPS (.736), and 7th in SLG (.407). Toronto’s offence has racked up at least 10 hits on 13
occasions this year, trailing Tampa Bay (17), Texas (15), and Boston (15) for the most in MLB…Since the start of 2022, the Blue Jays have 79 such games, four more than any other team (MIN/COL – 75). The Blue Jays are one of just two AL teams who have scored a run in every game this season (also: LAA)… Have gone 49 consecutive games without being shut out, the 2nd-longest active streak in the Majors (LAA – 72G).

A GREAT DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE: The Blue Jays loss on Wednesday night dropped their record against divisional opponents to 4-5 this season…Have still won 27 of their last 42 games vs. AL East foes, dating back to Aug. 17, 2022…Went 43-33 (.566%) in divisional play in 2022, the 2nd-best winning percentage within the division (NYY – .618) and the club’s best since registering a .581 win% in 2006 (43-31).

vS. THE RED SOX: All-Time: 320-385
2023: 0-3 Road: 166-191
Road: 0-3 Fenway Park: 166-191
The Blue Jays went 16-3 vs. the Red Sox last season, their most wins vs. a single opponent in a season all-time (15 vs. BAL in 2002 and 2010)…Outscored Boston 125-55 for a run differential of +70, their highest ever in a season vs. one opponent (+69 vs. BAL in 2021)…Have won eight of their last 11 games at Fenway Park and 12 of the last 19. Whit Merrifield is a lifetime .374 (52-for-139) hitter against the Red Sox, notching 13 doubles, four homers, and 17 RBI for a .957 OPS…Has recorded multiple hits in 15 of his 34 career games against Boston.

George Springer batted .380 (27-for-71) with six extra-base hits and 16 RBI in 18 games against the Red Sox last season, including hitting safely in each of the final 11 contests…Over 56 career meetings, has gone 68-for-218 (.312) with nine doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 41 RBI (.959 OPS).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 21-for-71 (.296) in 18 games vs. BOS last year, notching six doubles, two homers, and 14 RBI…In 36 career games at Fenway Park, has batted .343 (47-for-137) with 17 extra-base hits and 30 RBI for a 1.004 OPS.

STARTING PITCHER – Kevin Gausman, RHP #34
TODAY’S GAME:
Making his 7th start of the season and his 5th on the road…Tossed 7.0 shutout innings his last time out on 4/29 vs. SEA, giving up 5 hits with a walk and a career-high 13 strikeouts…Threw a season-high 108 pitches (74 strikes) while inducing a career-high 28 swing-and-misses…Got 20 whiffs on his splitter alone, the most on a single pitch in the Majors this season, and the most on a splitter in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008). His 54 strikeouts this season are the most ever by a Blue Jay in their first six outings of a season (2nd: J.A. Happ – 50K in 2018), and are 2nd most in the AL in 2023 (1st: Shohei Ohtani – 59K). Owns a 2.78 FIP since the start of the 2020 season, the 2nd-best mark among qualified hurlers (Corbin Burnes – 2.58).

2023 HIGHLIGHTS:
Earned his 2nd win of the year on 4/23 at NYY, hurling 7.0 shutout frames with 3 hits, no walks, and a season-high-tying 11 strikeouts. Gave up a career-high-tying 8 runs (7ER) over 4.2 innings on 4/17 at HOU (7H, 2BB, 5K). Took a no-decision on 4/12 vs. DET, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits over a season-high 8.0 innings with no walks and 11 strikeouts, his most as a Blue Jay…Surrendered a solo home run to Nick Maton with one out in the 4th inning, ending his streak of 15.1 innings without allowing an earned run, the longest stretch to begin a season in franchise history (2nd: Matt Shoemaker – 14.0 IP in 2019). Picked up his 1st win of the year on 4/6 at KC, throwing 6.0 shutout frames with 4 hits, 2 walks, and 7 strikeouts…Didn’t allowed an earned run for a 2nd straight outing to begin the season. Took the loss in his season debut on 4/1 at STL, giving up 3 runs (all unearned) on 8 hits and a walk over 6.0 innings with 7 strikeouts.

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

WE’RE GOING STREAKING!: The Red Sox have won a season-high 5 consecutive games, their longest winning streak since 8/31-9/4/22 (5 games). They own the AL’s longest active winning streak and the 2nd longest in MLB, trailing LAD (6 games). The Sox have come from behind in each of their last 4 wins. 3 of the Sox’ 5 wins during the streak have been decided by 1 run.

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox are 13-6 (.684) in their last 19 games, dating back to 4/14…They own the 2ndbest record in MLB during that span (BAL: 13-4, .765). During that span, they have scored 5.9 runs/game. Since 4/14, the Red Sox lead MLB in hits (193), XBH (74), AVG (.292), OBP (.361), and OPS (.847).

A.L. WILD CARD STANDINGS
Rk. Team W-L Pct. GB

  1. Baltimore 20-10 .667 +3.0
  2. Toronto 18-13 .581 +0.5
  3. Boston 18-14 .563 –
  • Los Angeles-AL 17-14 .548 -0.5

SERIES BUSINESS: With last night’s win, the Red Sox improved to 7-3-0 in series play, including 5-1-0 at home. Last year, the Sox went 1-7-2 in their first 10 series and did not earn their 7th series win until 6/8 (began 6-8-3). The Sox have now won 2 series vs. AL East opponents
(2-2-0 record; also won 3/30-4/2 vs. BAL)…In 2022, they didn’t win their 2nd series against an AL East opponent until 8/14 (began 1-11-1).
The Red Sox are looking to complete their 2nd sweep of the season, 1st at home (also 4/6-9 at DET, 3 games)…The last time the Sox swept a
4-game series was 9/1-4/22 vs. TEX.

SOX & JAYS: The Red Sox have won 3 straight games against the Blue Jays, matching their 2022 win total against the club (3-16). The Sox have won their 1st series against the Blur Jays since 7/19-21/21 in Toronto, and their 1st home series vs. TOR since 8/7-9/2020. The last time the Sox swept Toronto in a series of 4+ games was 7/1-4/2002 at Fenway Park (5 games).

WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE: The Red Sox qualified for the Postseason 10 of the previous 11 season’s they started 18-14 or better, including their last 4 World Series Championship seasons (2021, ‘18, ‘16, ‘13, ‘09, ‘08, ‘07, ‘05, ‘04, ‘03). The Sox’ 44 HR are tied for their 3rd-most all-time through 32 games: 1997 (47 HR), ‘69 (45), ‘95 (44). The Sox’ 184 runs scored are their most through 32 games since 2009 (185 R).

RED SOX THROUGH 32 GAMES
Stat 2022 2023
W-L 12-20 18-14
Runs scored 114 184
Home runs 18 44
AVG .231 .270
OPS .633 .800
BB 79 110

COMEBACK KIDS: The Red Sox trailed 2-0 entering the bottom of the 4th inning last night, earning their MLB-leading 13th come-from-behind win. The Red Sox trailed by multiple runs in 7 of their 13 comeback wins, including by 4 runs on 4/15 vs. LAA and by 6 runs on 4/1 vs. BAL.

CLOSE SHAVES: 22 of the Sox’ 31 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer (12-10), including 17 by 1 or 2 runs (10-7)…The only teams with more games decided by 3 runs or fewer are CLE (24) and LAA (23). The Red Sox lead MLB with 4 walk-off wins.

HOME COOKING: The Red Sox are 10-3 over their last 13 home games, winning each of their last 4 home series (3-1 vs. LAA, 2-1 vs. MIN, 2-1 vs. CLE, 3-0 vs. TOR). The Sox have scored 113 runs on 194 hits (76 XBH) in their 19 home games…They lead MLB at home with 10.2 hits/game and 4.0 XBH/game (tied), while ranking 5th with 5.9 runs/game. At home, the Sox lead MLB in AVG (.290) and OBP (.359), while ranking 4th in OPS (.841) and 5th in SLG (.482).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox lead MLB in doubles (72), rank 2nd in hits (297) and XBH (118), and rank 3rd in runs (184). The Red Sox have recorded 10+ hits in 4 of their last 5 games…Their 67 hits over that span are their most in a 5-game span since 5/24-28/22 (72 hits). The Sox have recorded 10+ hits in 15 games this season, 1 behind TB for most in MLB. Boston’s 19.7 SO% (244 SO/1,241 PA) leads the AL and ranks 2nd in MLB (WSH-18.1%).

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat MLB Rank
184 R 3rd
44 HR 5th
297 H 2nd
118 XBH 2nd
19.7 SO% 2nd
Stat MLB Rank
.270 AVG 3rd
.342 OBP 4th
.461 SLG 4th
.800 OPS 3rd
117 wRC+ T-3rd
*Bold=leads AL

MACHO MAN: Masataka Yoshida hit an RBI single in the 6th inning last night to extend his current hitting streak to 13 games, the longest active hitting streak in MLB. During his streak, Yoshida is batting .431 with a 1.239 OPS, 10 runs, and 15 RBI (22-for-51, 5 2B, 4 HR, 5 BB, SF).

BOSTON BACKSTOPS: The Red Sox lead MLB in hits (34) and AVG (.309) by catchers. In his last 11 games, Wong is batting .400 (14-for-35) with 3 doubles, 3 HR, 8 runs scored, and 8 RBI. Reese McGuire leads AL catchers and ranks 2nd in MLB in AVG (.327; min 50 PA).

PITCHING IN: Red Sox starting pitchers have tossed at least 5.0 innings in a season-high 9 consecutive games, their longest streak since 6/30-7/9/2021. Red Sox relievers have tossed 6.0 scoreless innings over the last 2 games…They have allowed 1 ER in 12.1 innings over the last 4 games (0.73 ERA). The Sox’ 5 pitchers with a relief ERA of 2.00 or lower are tied with BAL and TB for most in MLB (min. 5.0 IP).

RED SOX PITCHERS WITH A RELIEF ERA OF 2.00 OR LOWER Pitcher Relief ERA IP ER
Brennan Bernardino 0.00 5.2 0
Kenley Jansen 1.04 8.2 1
Kutter Crawford 1.08 16.2 2
Josh Winckowski 1.61 22.1 4
Chris Martin 2.00 9.0 2

TEAM EFFORT: Five different players have recorded a go-ahead RBI in the 8th inning or later for the Red Sox: Alex Verdugo (4/18 vs. MIN, 4/29 vs. CLE, 5/1 vs. TOR), Adam Duvall (4/1 vs. BAL), Yu Chang (4/15 vs. LAA), Masataka Yoshida (4/23 at MIL), and Connor Wong (5/2 vs. TOR). The Red Sox have 12 players with at least 8 RBI, tied with TB for most of any team. Spots 7-9 in the Sox’ lineup have produced the most hits in MLB (97) and 2nd-most XBH (35) and RBI (56).

DON’T START WITH US: Starting pitchers have lasted fewer than 4.0 innings in 9 starts vs. BOS this season, most in MLB…Starting pitchers have completed at least 6.0 innings against the Red Sox just 4 times this season, fewest of any team in MLB.

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 66 BRAYAN BELLO – RHP
Allowed 1 run over 5.0 IP on Saturday vs. CLE (5 H, 2 BB, 6 SO, HR). Struck out 7 batters over 5.0 IP in his last home start against TOR, on 8/24/22 (6 H, 2 ER, BB). Has issued 2 BB or fewer in each of his last 7 starts, beginning 9/14/22. Has a 2.80 SO/BB ratio in his last 3 MLB outings (12.1 IP, 14 SO, 5 BB). Only 2 of the 39 batted balls against him in 2023 has been barrelled (5.1%). In his MLB career, opponents are 11-for-69 (.159) with 11 singles and 27 SO against his changeup (2-for-12 with 6 SO in 2023).