Saturday, September 7, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (65-61) at Philadelphia Phillies (69-57)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: For the second time on this road trip, the Giants find themselves looking to stave off a sweep in the final game of a three-game series. SF is 1-4 on the road trip thus far after dropping the first two games of this series in Philly and losing two-of-three in Atlanta over the weekend. Since August 5, the Giants have lost 12-of-16 games to fall from 12 games over .500 at 61-49 to their current 65-61 mark. With yesterday’s defeat, the Giants have now lost six straight series, last winning one July 31-Aug.3 vs. Arizona (3-1). SF is looking to avoid its first sweep here in Philadelphia since 2018, when the Phils swept a four-game series May 7-10.

ROSTER MOVES: The Giants made the following roster moves prior to today’s game. IF Paul DeJong (#18) signed to a Major League contract and added to the active roster. IF Johan Camargo designated for assignment.

COOKIES, CUPCAKES OR CAKE?: OF Mike Yastrzemski celebrates his 33rd birthday today.

GOTTA SNAP OUT OF IT: With yesterday’s loss, the Giants are 2-14 in their last 16 road games dating to July 19. The Giants 2-14 (.125) winning % over their last 16 road games matches the worst 16-game road stretch within a single season in the SF-era (since 1958). The other times it has happened were 2015 (August 6-September 4), 1996 (many times), 1992 (three times), 1991 (twice), 1985 (twice) and 1960 (July 5-August 14) (Elias). SF has been outscored 85-46 (-39) in its last 16 road games. In that stretch, SF hitters are batting .198 while averaging 2.9 runs per game, with 13 home runs and a .583 OPS on the road. Giants pitchers have posted a 5.52 ERA (80er, 130.1ip) on the road with 20 home runs allowed and an .837 opposing OPS since July 19. The Giants last road series win came in their three-game series in Pittsburgh directly following the All-Star break (July 14-16) and they won’t have an opportunity to win another until they go to San Diego August 31-September 3…they lost each of their four road series this month. Lastly, the Giants have not won consecutive road games since winning five straight out of the break from July 14-18 (the sweep in Pittsburgh and the first two games in Cincinnati).

THE ROOKS: With LHP Kyle Harrison making his MLB debut yesterday, the Giants now have had 11 different players debut this season…the 11 debuts are tied for third-most in the Majors… only the Reds (14) and Pirates (12) have had more.

UNDER PRESSURE: The Giants were 1-for-10 with RISP last night, stranding nine runners in the one-run loss to the Phillies. They are 12-for-79 (.152) with RISP over their last 11 games. The Giants are 29th with RISP in batting average (.207) and RBI (117) since June 22 and 28th with a .645 OPS. This season overall, SF his slashing .198/.240/.302 with the bases loaded.

WE NEED A STOP JOB: All-Star RHP Alex Cobb takes the hill this afternoon in his 24th start of the season. The Giants have gone 15-8 in Cobb’s 23 previous starts this year but are 2-4 in his last six outings dating to June 20. Cobb has had a tough month of August, posting a 7.59 ERA (18er, 21.1ip) in four starts. He’ll be pitching in this ballpark for the first time since 2020 with the Orioles…he’s made only two career starts here, logging a 3.75 ERA (5er, 12.0ip).

FEELIN’ THE FLO: Since June 1, IF Wilmer Flores has reached base safely via a hit, walk or HBP in 46 of the 52 games he’s played during this stretch. In that span, he’s slashing .353/.420/.624 with 13 doubles, 11 homers, 28 RBI, 27 runs scored, 17 walks and 19 strikeouts. Flores’ 1.043 OPS since June 1 is fourth-best in the Majors (min. 175 PA) behind LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (1.216), TEX’s Corey Seager (1.109) and LAD’s Mookie Betts (1.097). He currently leads the team in homers (17) and would be the first Giant to lead the team in home runs, and hit over .300 since C Buster Posey did so in 2014 (Stats, LLC).

PAULIE D: IF Paul DeJong joins the Giants today for the series finale here in Philly. The 30-year-old posted a .710 OPS with 13 homers and 32 RBI with St. Louis (81 games) before being traded to Toronto. He went 3-for-44 in 13 games for the Blue Jays before being designated for assignment on August 19. In 711 career MLB games, DeJong has slugged 115 homers and posted a .721 OPS while playing mostly shortstop (678 career games)…he’s also played 21 games at second base.

ON THE WAY BACK: Two key cogs of the Giants roster began rehab assignments yesterday. RHP John Brebbia (right lat strain) worked 1.0 scoreless inning yesterday for the ACL Giants Orange…he struck out one. OF Mitch Haniger (right forearm fracture) started his rehab assignment yesterday in El Paso with Triple-A Sacramento…
he played 5.0 innings in left field and went 0-for-3 at the plate

ON THE WAY HOME: Following today’s game the Giants will fly back to San Francisco to enjoy an off day tomorrow before continuing their grueling stretch on Friday.
For a second straight weekend the Giants will match up with the Braves, this time at Oracle Park. Following the Braves series, the Reds make their only visit to Oracle Monday-Wednesday…SF and Cincinnati split a four-game series in The Queen City in mid-July.

TODAY’S STARTER – ALEX COBB RHP #38
2023 RECORD: 6-5, 3.75 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: The 2023 All-Star is in his 12th Major League season and his second with the Giants…he’s in his second year of a two-year contract (with a third-year team option) with the Giants that he signed on November 30, 2021.

LAST TIME OUT: Suffered the loss in his last outing on August 18 at Atlanta as he threw 5.2 innings, allowing four runs on eight hits and two walks with three strikeouts…with this loss and his loss against Texas in his previous start it marked the first time he has recorded a loss in back-to-back games since July 29, 2022 vs. the Cubs and August 3, 2022 vs. the Dodgers.

TOUGH STRETCH: Has hit a tough patch in the month of August, posting a 0-2 record with a 7.59 ERA (18er, 21.1ip) and a .326 opponents average in four outings…the Giants have lost three of those four starts…over his first 17 games this season he posted a 2.82 ERA (30er, 95.2ip) and a .272 opponents average while holding opponents to two runs or less in 12 of those 17 outings.

WINNER, WINNER: The Giants have a 15-8 record over 23 games when Cobb takes the mound…however, they have dropped three straight Cobb starts and four of his last six starts…prior to this stretch the Giants were 13-4 over his first 17 starts this season and had won of 10 of his last 11 games.

VS. PHILADELPHIA: Will take the hill to face the Phillies for the fifth time in his career…has posted a 1-1 record with a 2.82 ERA (7er, 22.1ip) and a 1.16 WHIP over four career starts against Philadelphia…has not pitched at Citizens Bank Park since 2020, but is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA (5er, 12.0ip) in two career starts here…faced the Phillies earlier this year on May 16 at Oracle Park and threw 3.1 innings, allowing two runs on five hits and five walks in the Giants 4-3 victory.

PHILLIES SLUGGING: In his four career appearances against the Phillies, Cobb has held Philadelphia hitters to a .268 slugging percentage, which is his second-lowest career opponent SLG % against any single opponent behind the Brewers (.263)…his .268 opponent slugging percentage vs. the Phillies is also the third-lowest among all active pitchers behind Chad Kuhl (.244) and Spencer Strider (.248) (min. four career starts) (Stats, LLC).

NOTHING LIKE YOUR OWN PILLOW: Has pitched much better at home this year going 4-2 with a 2.25 ERA (15er, 60.0ip) and a 1.18 WHIP in 10 starts, compared to the road where he’s 2-3 with a 5.08 ERA (38er, 67.1ip) over 13 starts.

RISP MANAGEMENT: Opponents are 7-for-their-last-16 (.438) with RISP vs. Cobb over his last three starts, however, Cobb is holding opponents to a .211 average (27-for-128) with runners in scoring position overall this season…his .211 opponent’s clip with RISP ranks as the seventh-lowest figure in the National League among starters…he’s also posted a .138 average (8-for-58) with runners in scoring position and two outs.

YOU’RE GROUNDED!: Cobb’s 57.3% groundball rate is third-best in the Majors behind teammate Logan Webb (60.0%) and CHC’s Marcus Stroman (59.0%).

FIRST THINGS FIRST: Opponents are batting .377 (23-for61) with 10 extra base hits (five doubles, two triples, three homers) off him on the first pitch of an at-bat.

HEY NOW YOU’RE AN ALL-STAR: Was selected as an All-Star for the first time in his career as a replacement for Atlanta Braves starter Bryce Elder…at 35 years, 277 days on the day of the All-Star game, Cobb was the fourth-oldest first time All-Star in Giants history, and second-oldest in the SF-era…Cobb threw 1.0-scoreless inning with one strikeout at T-Mobile Park.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #126 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the San Francisco Giants, 4-3, in walk-off fashion in front of 40,420 at Citizens Bank Park … Starter Taijuan Walker (ND) went 5.0 innings and allowed 3 runs (2 ER) on 6 hits with 2 walks and 7 strikeouts … Seranthony Dominguez (1.0 IP), Jose Alvarado (1.0 IP), Gregory Soto (1.0 IP) and Craig Kimbrel (W, 1.0 IP) combined for 4.0 scoreless innings and 5 strikeouts … Down 3-2 entering the 9th, Bryson Stott was hit by a pitch – Brandon Marsh singled and Stott advanced to 3rd – Marsh then stole second before Trea Turner laced a 104.0 MPH single up the middle that scored Stott and Marsh … It was Philadelphia’s 8th walk-off win this season, eclipsing their total of 7 from 2022 (12 walk-off wins in 2021).

FIGHT CLUB: Since the All-Star break (7/15-current), the Phillies are 21-16 – of their 21 wins, 17 have been comeback wins including each of their last six (since 8/10) … Philadelphia’s 17 comeback wins since the break are the most in MLB (next: CHI & WSH T-2nd with 13) … Of Philadelphia’s 12 wins during August, 10 have been comeback wins … Trailing 3-2 in the bottom of the 9th last night, the Phillies stormed back with two runs and secured their seventh win this season when they trailed entering the 9th inning … Philadelphia’s seven wins after trailing entering the 9th inning are tied for the most in MLB with Miami (nobody else has 6) and their most in a single season since 1998 (also 7) … The club record for wins in a season when trailing entering the 9th is eight, done four times: 1893, 1913, 1963 and 1979 … The Phillies have a .265 AVG this season in the 9th inning which leads the National League and ranks 2nd in MLB to only HOU (.268 AVG).

FOURMULA FOR SUCCESS: The Phillies are 54-19 this season when they score at least four runs in a game (.740 win %) which includes a 30-6 mark here at CBP (.833 win %) … Since May 7, the Phillies are 24-3 at CBP when they score at least four runs (.889 win %) … Conversely, when held to three runs or fewer, the Phillies are 15-38 (.283 win %) which includes a 6-18 record at CBP (.250 win %).

BALL GO BOOM: The Phillies have hit an MLB-best 40 home runs in the month of August (next: ATL, 39 HR) which marks only the 16th time in franchise history they have reached 40 home runs in a single month … Including today, the Phillies have 7 games remaining in August and they are averaging 2.00 home runs per game this month … The club record for home runs in a single month is 46, set in Sept. of 2019 … During the month of August, the Phillies are slashing .277/.348/.517 with an .865 OPS – among all clubs in MLB, their .517 SLG and .865 OPS both rank 2nd, behind only ATL (.520 SLG, .893 OPS) … The last time the Phillies put up either a .517 SLG or .865 OPS in a single month both came in July of 2007 (.526 SLG/.911 OPS).

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies are 44-25 over their last 69 games (since 6/3) and their .638 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (48-20, .706 win %) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 68-52 with a .567 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.636) and LAD (.607) and T-7th in MLB.

HARP ON IT: In the month of August, Bryce Harper is slashing .324/.410/.676 with a 1.086 OPS in 83 plate appearances over 19 games … Harper has six home runs this month in 71 at bats and is averaging a home run every 11.83 at bats … Harper returned from “Tommy John” surgery on May 2 this season, only 160 days after the procedure – from May 2-July 31, he totaled five home runs in 273 at bats, and averaged a homer every 54.6 at bats.

HARPER BY MONTH
LEADING MAN: Since Kyle Schwarber was put back into the leadoff spot on June 2, he has posted an .814 OPS with 49 runs, 20 HR, 53 RBI and 56 walks, and the Phillies are 44-26 (.629 win %) while averaging 5.2 runs per game (366 R, 70 G) … Since June 2, there are two players in MLB with 20+ home runs and 50+ walks: Schwarber and LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (28 HR, 54 BB) … Schwarber has already set a career high in walks this season with 96 (previous: 86 in 2022) and he ranks 2nd in MLB in both walks and walk rate (17.1 %) behind only Juan Soto (106 BB, 19.1%) … Since June 2, the Phillies are 31-7 when Schwarber scores a run (.816 win %).

TREA DAY: Over his last 17 games (since 8/4), Trea Turner is slashing .353/.389/.618 with a 1.007 OPS, 10 R, 6 2B, 4 HR, 14 RBI and 4 BB …Turner has 4 game-winning RBI since Aug. 4 which ranks T-2nd in MLB and he has 5 go-ahead RBI since Aug. 4, which ranks T-5th in MLB … Over his last 44 games at CBP (191 PA, since 5/6), Turner is slashing .295/.351/.494 (.845 OPS) with 26 runs scored, 20 extra-base hits (12 2B, 3B, 7 HR), 29 RBI, 13 walks and 9 stolen bases … Saturday at WSH, Turner became the first MLB player in history to hit two home runs in one inning off the same relief pitcher – Turner hit two home runs in the 8th inning off WSH reliever Cory Abbott … Turner became just the third Phillies player to ever homer twice in the same inning as he joined Von Hayes (6/11/1985 vs NYM, 1st inn.) and Andy Seminick (6/2/1949 vs CIN, 8th inn.)

HATS OFF TO YOU, THOMS: Since he was named manager on June 3, 2022, Rob Thomson has the Phillies 31 games over .500 at 134-103 with a .565 winning percentage that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.668), LAD (.651), HOU (.609), BAL (.590) and SEA (.586) … The Phillies are 71-43 under Thomson at CBP and their .623 winning % at home in that span ranks 4th in MLB behind only ATL (.712), LAD (.694) and TB (.647).

TODAY’S STARTER – MICHAEL LORENZEN • RHP #22
2023: 7-8, 3.57 ERA Career: 38-37, 4.00 ERA

LAST START: 8/18 at WSH: L, 3.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, HR, BB, SO …Lorenzen vs Adon … The Phillies fell to the Washington Nationals, 8-7, in the first game a three-game set … The Nationals held a 1-0 lead into the 4th until the Phils plated 6 runs in the frame and led 6-1 after the top of the 4th … The Nationals rallied back with 6 runs of their own in the bottom half of the 4th and eventually led 8-6 heading into the 9th … Kyle Schwarber hit his 2nd homer of the night to leadoff the 9th, but the rally would end there

TODAY’S START:

  • Last Time at CBP: On 8/9, Lorenzen threw the 14th no-hitter in Phillies history and the 13th by a single pitcher … It was the first Phillies no-hitter since Cole Hamels threw one in his last start as a Phillie on 7/25/15 … It was the first Phillies no-hitter at home since Roy Halladay tossed one on 10/6/10 and it was the second Phillies no-hitter at Citizens Bank Park … Lorenzen became the 5th pitcher in MLB history to toss a no-hitter in a home debut and the first since Don Cardwell did so for the Cubs on 5/15/60 … He also became the 6th pitcher in the expansion era (since 1961) to throw a no-hitter in his 1st or 2nd start with a club, joining ARI’s Tyler Gilbert (8/14/21 vs SD), SD’s Joe Musgrove (4/9/21 at TEX), BOS’ Clay Bucholz (9/1/07 vs BAL), BOS’ Hideo Nomo (4/4/01 at BAL) and CWS’ Wilson Alvarez (8/11/91 at BAL)
  • First Impressions: Per Elias, Lorenzen is the 7th Phillies pitcher in the expansion Era to throw 8.0+ innings in each of their first two starts with the club and the first since Paul Byrd did so in his first two starts in 1998 … Lorenzen became the fourth pitcher in MLB to do so in the last 20 seasons and the first since Shane Greene did so for DET in 2015
  • Dog Days: Since the start of July, Lorenzen has gone 5-2 with a 2.25 ERA (11 ER, 44.0 IP) … His ERA since the start of July is the 11th best in MLB (min. 25 IP)
  • Shut Down and Shut Out: Lorenzen has posted a scoreless outing in 4 of his last 7 starts … His 3 starts from 7/6-20 marked the first time in his career that he had a 3-game streak in which he tossed at least 5.0 scoreless innings and his 22.2 inning scoreless streak from 6/30-7/27 was the longest of his career… He is one of 10 pitchers this year to have a 3-game scoreless streak with at least 5.0 IP in each game and only Zac Gallen has a longer streak (4)
  • Left in Charge: Lorenzen is holding left-handed batters to a .192 AVG (50-260) this season which ranks 6th in MLB (min. 150 batters faced)
  • Life in the Fast Lane: This season, Lorenzen’s .170 OPP AVG (23-135) against his 4-seamer ranks T-4th in MLB and his OPP SLG (.274) ranks 6th (min. 100 PA) … His fastball is averaging 94.3 mph and he has struck out 36 batters with it … He is also in the 87th percentile in fastball spin
  • In Play? No Problem: Lorenzen’s .253 BABIP is the 7th best mark in baseball among pitchers with at least 100.0 IP (best: Tyler Wells, .206)
  • Pitch Usage: 4-Seam Fastball (34.2%), Slider (24%), Changeup (21.8%), Sinker (11.6%), Sweeper (6.8%), Cutter (1%) and Curveball (0.6%)
  • vs NL West: 4-6, 3 SV, 5.38 ERA (58 ER, 97.0 IP) in 52 games (8 starts)

HOME:

  • 2023: 4-4, 3.39 ERA (25 ER, 66.1 IP) in 11 starts
  • Career: 20-15, 10 SV, 3.68 ERA (151 ER, 369.2 IP) in 167 games (34 starts)

2023 SEASON:

  • Was named to the All-Star Game for the first time in his career … Representing the AL, he tossed a scoreless 0.2 IP with 1 hit, 1 walk and 1 strikeout
  • Set a career high for quality starts in a single season on 8/9
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