Monday, December 23, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (64-58) at Atlanta Braves (79-42)

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: The Giants look to even this three-game series vs. Atlanta, their first opponent of their two-destination road trip…SF’s current road trip next takes them to the Wild Card-leading Philadelphia Phillies (66-56, +2.0). Since August 5, the Giants have lost nine-of-12 games to fall from 12 games over .500 at 61-49 to their current 64-58 mark. Two of the Giants three wins in this 12-game stretch have come in Logan Webb starts (August 7 at the Angels and last Sunday vs. Texas)

WELCOME TO ATLANTA: This series is the first of two meetings in a week’s span between San Francisco and Atlanta. SF has gone 2-6 here at Truist Park over the last three years with four of the six losses being by one run. The last 11 games overall between these clubs have been decided by four or fewer runs, which is tied for the fourth-longest streak since 1958 in the rivalry’s history (Stats, LLC).

HOMESICK: The Giants have lost 11 of their last 12 road games dating to July 19 at Cincinnati with the lone win coming August 7 at the Angels (also a game that RHP Logan Webb started). SF has been outscored 62-30 (-32) over its last 12 road games. In that stretch, SF hitters are batting .169 (63×373) while averaging 2.5 runs per game with eight HRs and a .514 OPS. Giants pitchers have posted a 5.57 ERA (60er, 97.0ip) on the road with an .807 opposing OPS since July 19.

GRIND THROUGH IT: SF is 5-for-49 (.102) with runners in scoring position in its last seven games with one extra-base hit (a homer), seven RBI and 19 strikeouts over 54 plate appearances. Since June 22, SF has batted .205 with RISP (30th in MLB) with 106 RBI (29th)…only the A’s have fewer RBI (99). Furthermore, the Giants have scored just 157 runs with a .614 OPS overall since June 22, which are both the lowest totals in MLB over that stretch.

TOUGH STRETCH: The Giants are in the midst of one of the toughest parts of their schedule all season with six straight series against teams in playoff position. It started last homestand with Texas (first in the AL West) and Tampa Bay (2nd in the AL East / 1st AL Wild Card). It continues over the next 2.5 weeks with this series here in ATL (best record in the Majors), PHI (2nd in NL East / 1st NL Wild Card), ATL at home again next weekend and then CIN (0.5 games back of SF for second Wild Card spot). SF has the eighth-hardest remaining schedule (second-most difficult of any contending NL team) with their opponents having a .519 combined winning percentage from here on out.

SUMMER FLORES: Since June 1, IF Wilmer Flores has reached base safely via a hit, walk or HBP in 42 of the 48 games he’s played in during this stretch. Since June 1 he’s slashing .355/.417/.632 with 13 doubles, 10 homers, 25 RBI, 24 runs scored, 15 walks and 18 strikeouts. Flores’ 1.049 OPS since June 1 is fifth-best in the Majors (min. 175 PA) behind LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (1.241), TEX’s Corey Seager (1.124), LAD’s Mookie Betts (1.075) and ATL’s Matt Olson (1.074) . Flores has logged a career .853 OPS in 19 career games at Truist Park with five XBHs.

RIGHT THE SHIP: RHP Logan Webb will try to stop the skid with his 26th start of the season. He is coming off one of his best starts of 2023, where he came one out shy of his second career shutout, striking out six while allowing one run on six hits and a walk over 8.2 innings vs. Texas on August 13. The Giants are 13-12 in Webb’s 25 starts this year, and have won each of their last three games with Webb on the mound. Webb’s 1.33 career ERA against Atlanta is the fourth-lowest among pitchers with at least four starts against the Braves in the Live-Ball Era (since 1920)(Stats, LLC). In three career starts at Truist Park, Webb has a 0.90 ERA (2er, 20.0ip). Webb leads MLB with a 60.8% ground ball rate while Atlanta hitters have a 43.2% ground ball rate, which is tied for eighth-highest in MLB. His 16.0% HR/FB is seventh in MLB while Atlanta hitters have a 19.3% HR/FB, which is highest in MLB.

GET ‘EM EARLY AND OFTEN: SF has been one of the better teams in the Majors at attacking pitchers on the first pitch of the at-bat, with a collective .357 batting average and .947 OPS. Hitters are batting .426 (23×54) with three doubles, five home runs and a 1.196 OPS on the first pitch vs. ATL’s Yonny Chirinos. Chirinos’ 1.196 opposing OPS on the first pitch is fourth-highest in MLB (min. 50 plate appearances ending with an 0-0 count).

Active Giants on First Pitch of At-Bat (Minimum 10 Plate Appearances)
Player AVG OPS
J.D. Davis .493 1.412
Blake Sabol .429 .959
LaMonte Wade Jr. .421 1.079
Thairo Estrada .417 1.054
Wilmer Flores .391 1.183
Player AVG OPS
Michael Conforto .375 1.094
Patrick Bailey .371 .875
Brandon Crawford .308 .769
Austin Slater .294 .765
Joc Pederson .240 .600

TRANQUILO CAMILO: RHP Camilo Doval is tied with CLE’s Emmanuel Clase and CIN’s Alexis Díaz for the MLB lead in saves (33). Doval last allowed a home run on May 16 vs. Philadelphia (Kyle Schwarber) making his 34.2 homerless inning streak the fifth-longest active streak among active pitchers. He has pitched just four times this month, and last appeared in a game on Aug. 13 vs. Texas. Doval has a 7.4% opposing barrel rate since June 16, which is third-lowest in MLB during that span (min. 90 batters faced). His career 1.27 ERA (8er, 56.2ip) after the All-Star break is second-best since 1933 (min 50ip) according to Stats, LLC.

TODAY’S STARTER – LOGAN WEBB RHP #62
2023 RECORD: 9-9, 3.26 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: Is in the midst of his fifth season with SF…made his fourth career Opening Day roster and his second consecutive Opening Day start with his outing on March 30 at the Yankees… signed a five-year, $90 million extension on April 14 that keeps him in a Giants uniform through 2028…the contract bought out his final two arbitration years and first three years of free agency.

LAST TIME OUT: Took a tough no-decision last Sunday at Oracle Park as the Giants defeated the Rangers 3-2 in 10 innings…Webb was vying for his second shutout of the season with SF carrying a 1-0 lead into the 9th inning…Webb allowed a two-out double to Texas’ J.P. Martínez in the 9th that chased him from the game with his pitch count at 107…RHP Camilo Doval entered and induced a groundball to the hole at short from Ezequiel Durran that IF Brandon Crawford was able to glove and make a throw to first on but the throw was late and Martínez, who had been running on the play, zoomed around third and scored the tying run…Webb’s final line was 8.2 innings, allowing one run on six hits with six strikeouts and no walks.

ON THE LEADERBOARDS…: Webb enters today with 163.0 innings pitched, second-most in the Majors…his 157 strikeouts are tied for eighth-most in the NL while his 3.26 ERA is fifth-best…his 1.07 WHIP is third-best among qualified NL pitchers…if he keeps this up he could be in the conversation to lead the Majors in innings pitched at season’s end — something not too many 26-year-olds (based on age at end of the season) have done since 1990 according to Stats, LLC. Pitchers 26 or Younger to Lead MLB in Innings Pitched — Since 1990 (Stats, LLC) Year Pitcher Innings Pitched Years Age 1992 Greg Maddux, CHC 268.0 26 173 2003 Roy Halladay, TOR 266.0 26 137 2009 Justin Verlander, DET 240.0 26 228

QUALITY EATS: Webb also leads the NL and is tied for the MLB lead with NYY’s Gerrit Cole in quality starts entering play today with 18…if he finishes the year leading the league in quality starts he’d be the first Giant to do so since Rick Reuschel did so with 28 in 1988 (Stats, LLC).

Giants, Leading League in Quality Starts — Since 1958 (Stats, LLC) (Ties Included) Year Pitcher QS

1988 Rich Reuschel 28
1981 Doyle Alexander 19
Year Pitcher QS
1969 Gaylord Perry 32
1958 Johnny Antonelli 24

I WATCHED A CHANGE…IN YOU: Through his first four starts this year opponents hit .344 with a .563 slugging % off his changeup… in his last 21 starts, hitters have gone 55-for-268 (.205) against the pitch with 14 extra-base hits, 68 strikeouts and 11 walks…Webb threw a career-high 67 changeups in his last outing vs. Texas, accounting for a whopping 62.6% of his pitches in the game…the most he’d thrown in a single game prior to his last outing was 53 to Arizona on August 2.

THE MIX TAPE: Webb’s pitch mix this month has heavily featured his \changeup as he’s thrown in 54.1% of the time in his three s

GOTTA MAKE WEBB DAY A WIN DAY…: Over the last 2+ seasons the Giants as a team are 52-31 (.627) in 83 games that Webb has started since 2021… SF is 13-12 in his 25 starts this year…going back a bit further, SF is 18-16 in his last 34 starts dating to August 13, 2022…in those 34 starts, Webb has received two or fewer runs of support 21 times (SF is 6-15 in those games)…he has a 3.00 ERA in those 34 starts while posting an 8.65 K/9ip and a 5.39 K/BB ratio.

SUPPORT SYSTEM: As mentioned, the Giants have given Webb two or fewer runs of support in 21 of his last 34 starts dating to August 13, 2022…in his last start at the Angels, Webb received one run of support in his 8.2 innings…this year, SF has given him two or fewer runs of support in 16 of his 25 starts (64%)… Webb’s 3.15 run support average in 2023 is second-lowest in MLB behind Colorado’s Kyle Freeland (3.12).

VS. ATLANTA: Has pitched very well against Atlanta in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA (4er, 27.0ip) in four career starts (SF is 3-1 in those games)…three of the four have come here at Truist Park and he’s pitched at least 6.0 innings and allowed one run or fewer in each of them (0.90 ERA).

ATLANTA BRAVES NOTES:

TONIGHT’S GAME: The Braves and Giants tonight continue a three-game weekend series in what is the second of six scheduled meetings between the teams this season…The two will also play next weekend in a three-game set at Oracle Park in San Francisco. • The Braves held the Giants to just two hits in a shutout, 4-0, to win the opener last night.

  • Atlanta went 4-3 against San Francisco last season, and has not lost the season set with the Giants since 2016…In the five seasons since, the Braves are
    20-14 (.588) against the Giants, winning five-of-seven games in 2019 and four-of-seven in 2017… The clubs split six games in both 2021 and 2018.
  • The Braves went 3-1 against the Giants here at Truist Park last season, and are 11-7 (.611) against them here since the facility opened in 2017… Atlanta has lost just one of the five series played between the clubs here, getting swept in three games in 2018.
  • RH Yonny Chirinos has made just one career start against San Francisco, pitching 5.0 scoreless innings on April 7, 2019 to earn the win while with the Rays…The 6-foot-2, 225-pound right-hander tonight makes his fifth start for Atlanta since the Braves claimed him off waivers from Tampa Bay, and he is 1-1 with a 9.33 ERA (19 ER/18.1 IP) over his first four turns.
  • RH Logan Webb has never lost to Atlanta, compiling a 2-0 record with a 1.33 ERA in four career starts…The 6-foot-1, 220-pound native of Rockland, CA, has allowed just four runs in 27.0 innings to Atlanta, including 7.0 one-run innings in his only start against them last season…In 25 total turns for the Giants this season, Webb is an even 9-9 with a 3.26 ERA (59 ER/163.0 IP).

WIN: The Braves pitched their third consecutive shutout last night, beating the Giants, 4-0…Atlanta moved to 28-12 (.700) in series openers this season, including a 15-5 (.750) record in such games at home.

  • The win was the 11,000th in franchise history, dating to the club’s inclusion as a founding member of the National League in 1876…Per Elias, only two other franchises in MLB history have amassed more than 11,000 wins…The Giants, who the Braves play tonight, have 11,446, and the Chicago Cubs have 11,222.
  • The Cardinals and Dodgers have both eclipsed 11,000 wins as a franchise, but played in the independent American Association before joining the National League.
  • Spencer Strider completed 7.0 innings in the start for Atlanta, and the Braves moved to 11-2 (.846) when their starter goes at least 7.0.
  • Atlanta collected 10 hits but zero went for home runs, just the fourth win of the season for the Braves in which they did not homer…The Braves are just 4-11 (.267) without a homer this season, but their 15 such games are by far fewest in baseball.

SHUTOUTS: Atlanta blanked San Francisco last night, 4-0, to secure its third consecutive shutout…The club last pitched three straight clean sheets from October 2-4, 2015 – the last three games of the season versus St. Louis.

  • Since 1920, the start of Major League Baseball’s live-ball era, the franchise has never pitched four straight shutouts.
  • The Braves have thrown five shutouts in their last eight games, the first team to match that criteria since Pittsburgh did so from June 10-18, 2015…The Pirates shut out the Chicago White Sox (twice), Philadelphia Phillies (twice) and the Milwaukee Brewers (once) in that span.
  • The last time Atlanta tallied five shutouts in an eight-game span occurred from September 17-26, 1998 in contests against the Arizona Diamondbacks (three times), New York Mets (once) and Florida Marlins (once)…Chronologically, Denny Neagle, Tom Glavine, Bruce Chen, John Smoltz and Glavine started in those games.
  • The Braves’ 14 shutouts this season are the most in baseball.

PITCHING: In the course of their three straight shutouts, Atlanta pitchers have combined to allow a total of just seven hits… In modern-era franchise history (since 1901), that total is tied for the second-fewest all-time within a three-game span.

  • The club allowed a franchise-low five hits in three games from April 18-20, 1978.
  • Atlanta starters have thrown scoreless efforts in six of their last eight games dating to August 11, completing at least 6.0 innings six times in that span…As a group, Braves starters have allowed just eight runs in their last eight games.
  • In the six games immediately preceding their current run, Braves starters allowed 33 runs and pitched just 25.1 innings.
  • Atlanta relievers have an N.L.-best 3.43 ERA (164 ER/430.2 IP) on the season, including a 1.79 (11 ER/55.1 IP) mark in the month of August.

OZUNA STREAKING: DH Marcell Ozuna singled up the middle in last night’s first inning to extend his hitting streak to a season-best 15 games…The run dates to August 4, during which he has batted .333/.419/.556 with two homers and 11 RBI.

  • Ozuna’s run is the longest active streak in baseball.
  • He has had just two longer streaks in his career, compiling 16-game streaks in both 2013 and 2016.
  • Ozuna batted .085/.194/.203 with a wRC+ of nine over 18 games in March and April…In 87 games since, he has batted .276/.346/.530 with a wRC+ of 132, meaning he has been 32% better than league average since May 1.
  • He has clubbed 14 of his 24 home runs here at Truist Park, and is batting .260/.344/.526 at home.

Tonight’s Starting Pitcher – #56 Yonny Chirinos RHP
2023 Record: 5-5, 5.22 ERA • 2022 Record: 1-0, 0.00 ERA
vs. RHB: .268 (42-157), 7 HR • vs. LHB: .268 (42-for-157), 7 HR
Home: 2-2, 6.25 ERA (22/31.2) • Away: 3-3, 4.56 ERA (25/49.1)

Tonight’s Game

  • Set to make his fifth start for Atlanta.
  • Is 1-1 with a 9.33 ERA in four starts for the Braves.
  • Pitching to a 5.13 FIP with Atlanta.
  • Was claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay on July 23.
  • Went 4-4 with a 4.02 ERA in four starts and 11 relief appearances for the Rays.
  • Went 3-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his first eight appearances this season.
  • Earned his first win with Atlanta after scattering six hits and three runs over 5.0 innings pitched against Los Angeles (AL) in his last start.
  • Chirinos is getting hitters to swing and miss rate of 22.1% since joining Atlanta.
  • The rate was 16.1% with Tampa Bay.
  • Only pitched in two games last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Missed the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on August 24, 2020, performed by Dr. Koco Eaton in St. Petersburg.
  • Underwent surgery on September 30, 2021 after he fractured his elbow.
  • On September 7, 2022 made his first appearance in the maors since August 16, 2020; 1…Went 751 days between outings and 1,129 days between wins.
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