MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (45-34) at Toronto Blue Jays (43-37)

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Toronto Blue Jays logo

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: With a victory in last night’s series opener, the Giants will look to secure a series win with a victory in Game 2 tonight here in Toronto…the Giants have now won 13 of their last 15 games overall dating to June 11 and are trying to win their fifth consecutive series.

THAT’S TEN: Much of the Giants recent success has come on the road where they have won 15 of their last 17 games, including each of their last 10 road contests…SF’s 10 straight road wins are an SF-era record and the last time the Giants won 10 consecutive road games within the same season prior to this year was April 20-May 5, 1952 as the New York Giants… the last time they won 11 straight on the road within a single season was April 21-June 5, 1923.

THE ROAD LIFE: The Giants 10-game road winning streak has given them a 22-15 mark on the road this season…the team’s 22 road victories are third-most in the NL behind Atlanta (26) and Arizona (24).

JUNEBUGS: SF is 17-6 (.739) in June, the second-best winning percentage in MLB behind ATL (19-4, .826)…the Giants winning percentage so far in June is currently their best performance in a single month since going 23-7 (.767) in September/October of 2021…it’s also the team’s best winning percentage in the month of June in SF-era and their best winning % since finishing the month 24-4 (.857) in 1954.

WORTH MENTIONING…: The Giants have won 10 games so far this month with three left to play (including tonight) and is on pace to have one of their best road winning percentages in a month in team history…SF’s best road winning percentage in a single month (min. 10 games) in franchise history came back in 1916 when the club went 19-1 (.950) in May of that year.

Giants, Best Winning Percentage on Road in Single Month — All-Time
Season Month Record Win Pct.
2023 June 10-0 1.000%
1916 May 19-1 .950
2021 September 11-1 .917

Season Month Record Win Pct.
1912 May 17-2 .895
1904 August 12-2 .857

I GOT FIVE ON IT: With last night’s win, SF improved to 23- 16 (.590) versus teams that are .500 or better on the season… that .590 winning percentage is tied for second-best in the Majors with the Braves…Tampa Bay leads the Majors at 26-17 (.605)…according to Sports Info Solutions SF has a team ERA of 3.49 vs. teams that are .500 or better and that ERA is best in the Majors.

DO. NOT. PASS. GO.: SF pitching struck out 17 batters and did not issue a single walk in last night’s win over the Blue Jays… according to Elias it was the most strikeouts recorded by a Giants pitching staff in a game where they did not issue a walk since 1893 when the mound was moved to its current distance.

FINESSE: The Giants have been outstanding with runners in scoring position this month, slashing a league-leading .362/.423/.552 in 23 games…SF’s .975 OPS with RISP in June is almost 150 points ahead of second place Arizona (.832)… the Giants’ .291 average with RISP overall this season is tops in the NL and second-best in MLB behind the Rangers (.308).

WEBB GEMS: RHP Logan Webb takes the hill for his 17th start this season with his outing tonight…Webb himself has won each of his last three outings while the Giants as a team have won each of his last four starts and five of his last six outings… overall, the Giants are 8-8 as a team in the 16 games he’s started this year but that is after starting the year 1-5 in his first six starts of the season…he enters today ranked among the National League leaders in innings pitched (105.1, 1st), ERA (3.16, 7th), strikeouts (101, 9th) and WHIP (1.10, 7th)…

EYE SPY…: The Giants did strike out 13 times yesterday but on the whole their numbers have been trending downwards since the season’s first month…take a look at the breakdown below as noted by Sports Info Solutions…SF’s walk rate this month is 10.3%, nearly tied with San Diego for second-best in the Majors this month.

Giants Strikeouts & Walks Breakdown By Month — 2023
Month Strikeouts Walks K% BB%
March/April 289 90 27.5% 8.6%
May 260 91 23.9% 8.4%
June (so far) 211 94 23.2% 10.3%

PATTY RBI’S: C Patrick Bailey drove in the Giants first run yesterday for his 23rd RBI since joining the Giants on May 19… Bailey’s 23 RBI since that date are tied for third-most among Major League rookies in that time behind Arizona’s Corbin Carroll (30) and Cincinnati’s Spencer Steer (30).

PATTY CANNON ARM: Bailey also threw out Whit Merrifield
trying to steal second base yesterday…since Bailey’s debut
on May 19, he’s thrown out 10 runners trying to steal, tied
for the most in the Majors in that span with Oakland’s Shea
Langeliers…overall, Bailey has thrown out 10-of-27 (37.0%)
percent of potential basestealers since being called up.

TODAY’S STARTER – LOGAN WEBB RHP #62
2023 RECORD: 7-6, 3.16 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: Is in the midst of his fifth season with SF…made his fourth career Opening Day roster and his second consecutive Opening Day start with his outing on March 30 at the Yankees… signed a five-year, $90 million extension on April 14 that keeps him in a Giants uniform through 2028…the contract bought out his final two arbitration years and first three years of free agency.

LAST TIME OUT: Worked at least 7.0 innings for a third straight start, a fourth time this month and for the ninth time in 12 starts since April 22 when he threw last Friday night at Oracle Park… Webb allowed four runs, three earned, on five hits, one of which was a home run in his 98-pitch effort…with the victory, Webb has now won three consecutive starts and the Giants as a team have won five out of the last six games he’s started dating to May 27.

IN A GROOVE: Over his last 12 starts, Webb has looked like the 2021-2022 version, posting a 2.64 ERA (24er, 81.2ip) on 69 hits with 18 walks and 73 strikeouts…Webb’s 2.64 ERA since April 22 is seventh-best in the Majors in that time (fourth-best in the NL)… SD’s Michael Wacha leads the NL and the Majors with his 1.49 ERA in that span.

I WATCHED A CHANGE…IN YOU: Through his first four starts this year opponents hit .344 with a .563 slugging % off his changeup… in his last 12 starts, opposing hitters have gone 28-for-153 (.183) against the pitch with five extra-base hits, 43 strikeouts and eight walks…last time out he got a career-best 17 outs with his changeup…according to Sports Info Solutions the 17 outs Webb recorded with his changeup were the most outs recorded with a changeup by any pitcher in the last four seasons.

GOTTA MAKE WEBB DAY A WIN DAY…: Over the last 2+ seasons as Webb has come into his own, the Giants as a team are 47-27 (.635) in games that he has started since 2021… with this recent stretch of wins in Webb’s starts this year, SF is now 8-8 in his 16 starts this season after starting the year 1-5 in games he pitched…going back a bit further, SF is 13-12 in his last 25 starts dating to August 13, 2022…in those 25 starts, Webb has received one or fewer runs of support 11 times…he himself has a 2.83 ERA in those 25 starts while posting an 8.61 K/9ip ratio and a 4.52 K/BB ratio.

SUPPORT SYSTEM: As mentioned above, the Giants have given Webb one or fewer runs of support in just under half (11) of his last 25 starts dating to August 13, 2022…this season, Webb’s 3.76 run support average is eighth-lowest in the Majors among qualified pitchers…over his last two starts, however, it’s taken a dramatic turn upward as SF has scored 15 combined runs when he’s been in the game during his last two outings.

VS. TORONTO: Will be facing the Blue Jays for the first time in his career tonight.

LIMITING THE FREEBIES: Entering tonight’s start Webb’s 5.0% walk rate would be the lowest of his career (his best season was a 6.0% walk rate in 2021)…overall, Webb’s career walk rate is 6.5%… he’s walked only 21 of the 420 batters he’s faced so far in 2023.

THE HOMERS…: After giving up just one homer in five May starts spanning 34.2 innings he’s allowed five homers in 33.1 innings so far this month…in total he’s allowed 13 homers this year in 105.1 innings, already two more than he allowed all of last season in 192.1 innings…his 1.11 HR/9ip ratio this year is the highest of his career and way above his career norm (0.70)

THE THRILL OF THE CHASE…: This season Webb’s chase rate is 32.2%, up from 30.7% a season ago and closer to his 32.6% rate during his breakout 2021 campaign…overall, his career chase rate average sits at 30.0%…entering his start today, Webb’s 32.2% chase rate this season is 11th-best in the Majors but fifth-best in the National League among qualified starters.

WHAT IS IT GOOD FOR?: Through his first 16 starts Webb has been worth 1.8 Wins Above Replacement according to Fangraphs…that total is 12th-best in the NL.

STAYING GROUNDED: His 62.6 groundball percentage this season is up from last year’s 57.8% mark and above his career average of 58.3%…entering play today the 62.6 groundball % is-best in the Majors.

THAT’S STRIKEOUTS WITH A K: The righty has whiffed 101 batters in 105.1 innings so far in 2023 (8.63 K/9ip)…his 4.81 K/BB ratio is third-best in the NL and ninth-best in the Majors…for reference, Webb’s highest K/9 of his career came in his breakout 2021 season where he averaged 9.6 strikeouts per 9.0 innings…looking at this season a different way, Webb is striking out 24.0% of his batters faced (101 strikeouts in 420 batters faced)…last year his strikeout percentage was 20.7%.

EARLY RETURNS: Webb’s 65.7% first-pitch strike percentage is slightly up from last year’s 65.3% average and above his career average of 64.3%…however, Webb has had four of his five lowest first-pitch strike totals on a per-game basis in each of his last four outings…he had a 53.6% first pitch strike rate last time out vs. Arizona, a season-low 48.4% rate against the Dodgers and then a 55.6% rate at St. Louis on June 12 and 52.0% on June 7 at Colorado.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS NOTES:

THE LATEST: The Blue Jays were blanked, 3-0, by the Giants in the opening match of this three-game series last night… Was their 2nd time being shut out this season, the fewest among AL clubs (2nd: LAA/NYY – 3)…Are now an even 13-13 in series openers. Toronto has gone 14-10 over its last 24 games and is 17-12 over the last 29…Toronto’s .586 win% over that span (since May 26) is tied with Cleveland for the best in the AL.

GAUS AND EFFECT: Kevin Gausman began last evening with 4.1 no-hit innings before giving up a single to Thairo Estrada in the 5th…Finished the night with 6.0 innings of one-run ball, scattering three hits and a walk while racking up 12 strikeouts…Fanned LaMonte Wade Jr. in the 4th inning to reach 1,500 career strikeouts, becoming the 21st active player to reach the mark…Was his MLB-leading 7th double-digit strikeout game of the season…Managed 22 swing-and-misses, his 2nd most in a game this year (28 on April 29 vs. SEA). The righty continues to lead the AL with 139 strikeouts (2nd: Shohei Ohtani – 127), and trails only Spencer Strider (146) for the most in MLB…Among AL pitchers, is also currently 1st in quality starts (13), 1st in FIP (2.48), 2nd in SO/9 (11.95), 2nd in K rate (32.7%), 3rd in innings pitched (104.2), and 8th in ERA (3.01).

BICHETTE HAPPENS: Bo Bichette singled in the 1st, doubled in the 3rd, and singled in the 6th, finishing last night’s game 3-for-4… Marked his AL-leading 10th three-hit game (T-3rd in MLB) and his AL-leading 31st multi-hit game of the season (3rd in MLB)…Extended his hitting streak to 12 games, currently the 3rd-longest active streak in the Majors…Has gone 18-for-50 (.360) with nine doubles and four RBI over that span (.913 OPS). The shortstop currently leads the AL with 109 hits, 14 more than any other batter, trailing only Luis Arraez (113) for the most in the Majors…His .323 batting average now leads the AL (2nd: Yandy Díaz – .315), while he sits 2nd in total bases (173), 4th in SLG (.513), 6th in OPS (.866), T-6th in XBH (35), and T-9th in doubles (20).

SPRING-ING UP: George Springer doubled to open last night’s game… Was his 10th two-bagger of the campaign…Over his last 16 contests, is batting .339 (21-for-62) with five doubles, two home runs, and eight RBI (.898 OPS).

THIS BRAND-ON OF BASEBALL: Brandon Belt doubled in his final at-bat last night…Over his last 34 contests, has batted .324 (34-for-105) with 11 doubles, three homers, 12 RBI, and 22 walks (.956 OPS)…His .442 OBP over that span (since May 4) is the highest in the Majors (min. 100 AB), one point ahead of Juan Soto (.441).

DOUBLE TIME: Matt Chapman doubled off the left-center wall in the 4th inning last night…Now has 26 doubles, tied with Alex Verdugo for the most in the AL, one back of Freddie Freeman (27) for the MLB lead.

HOME WORK: The Blue Jays are on a nine-game, 10-day homestand (2-2 so far)…Have gone 21-15 this season at Rogers Centre…The .583 win% at home is 4th best in the AL…After this series with the Giants, will wrap up the homestand with a Canada Day weekend set vs. the Red Sox (40-40). Toronto batters rank 4th in the AL in home AVG (.264), 4th in home OBP (.336), 6th in home OPS (.751), and 7th in home SLG (.415)…The pitching staff ranks 1st among AL teams with a .212 home opponents’ average (2nd: SEA – .219)…Are sitting 2nd with a 3.36 home ERA and 2nd with a 1.13 home WHIP.

LET’S GO HALFSIES: The Blue Jays have reached the 81st game of the season…Will either be 44-37 or 43-38 at the mid-way mark this year…Were 44-37 at the halfway point last season and 43-38 in 2021.

OFFENSIVE THINGS: The Blue Jays recorded eight hits last night, including five doubles…Marked the 2nd time in team history to record five doubles without scoring a run, also doing so on April 26, 2002 at ANA. Toronto batters have now notched 727 hits this season, 4th most in the Majors…Are currently 3rd in the AL in team AVG (.263), 5th in OBP (.330), 5th in OPS (.750), 6th in SLG (.420), and 6th in extra-base hits (247).

STARTING SOMETHING: Toronto pitchers have now combined for 39 quality starts, tied for 2nd most in the Majors (SEA – 40)…The starting rotation has tossed 441.1 innings, 4th most in MLB…Also rank 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (449), 6th in ERA (4.02), 7th in AVG (.244), and 8th in WHIP (1.28).

INTERTAINMENT: Toronto is playing its 8th interleague series of the year… Has gone 14-7 vs. NL clubs so far…The .667 win% is tied for 3rd best among MLB teams (MIA – .720, NYY – .706)…Can set a club record for interleague wins with a victory tonight (14 in 2021)…Since the beginning of the 2021 campaign, Toronto’s .672 win% in Interleague Play (41-20) is the best among all MLB clubs (2nd: LAD – .649). The Blue Jays have hit 661 home runs all-time in Interleague Play, the most among all 30 teams.

VS. THE GIANTS: All-Time: 10-14
2023: 0-1 Home: 5-6
Home: 0-1 Rogers Centre: 5-6

The Blue Jays last met the Giants in 2019, splitting the two-game series in California while dropping both contests here at Rogers Centre…Are now 10-14 all-time vs. SF while amassing a -4 run differential (98 runs for; 102 runs against). Brandon Belt was drafted by the Giants in 2009 and debuted with the club in 2011…Went on to play 12 seasons for the Giants before signing with Toronto in January…Batted .261 with 175 home runs and 584 RBI during his 1,310 games as a Giant, making an All-Star Game appearance in 2016 and helping the team to two World Series Titles. Kevin Gausman pitched for the Giants in 2020 and 2021 before he joined the Blue Jays in 2022… Combined to go 17-9 with a 3.00 ERA in 45 games (43 starts) by the bay, and represented the club at the 2021 All-Star Game. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is facing San Francisco for the first time since his rookie season in 2019…Hit his first two career home runs on May 14 at SF, becoming the youngest player in team history to record a multi-homer game (20 years, 59 days old).