MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants (12-17) at Houston Astros (16-14)

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Houston Astros logo

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: The Giants and Astros play the final game of this three-game series…a win today and the Giants would earn just their third series victory this season (currently have series wins at Chicago-AL and vs. St. Louis).

GREAT FOR 8: Last night, RHP Anthony DeSclafani became the second Giants pitcher to throw at least 8.0 innings in a start this year, joining RHP Alex Cobb (CG, 4/24 vs. STL)…it was the eighth start of his career in which he tossed at least 8.0 innings.

HOMER HAPPY: The Giants have hit 48 homers through 29 games, third most in the Majors behind the Rays (62) and Dodgers (52)…SF has homered in 22 of their 29 contests and have received home runs from 12 different players.

GETTING THOSE GROUNDERS: Today’s pitching matchup features two ground ball pitchers in RHP Logan Webb and LHP Framber Valdez…according to Sports Info Solutions, the top three pitchers in highest ground ball rate (min. 250ip) in the last three seasons are: Framber Valdez (67.7%), Alex Cobb (58.7%) and Logan Webb (58.5%).

THIS SEEMS TO BE AN ISSUE: The Giants had 16 baserunners and two runs scored last night…for the season, 26% of their baserunners have scored, the third-lowest rate in MLB…the league average is 32% (SIS).

LEFT ON READ: The Giants face LHP Framber Valdez this afternoon in the series finale…a breakdown of SF’s splits vs. lefties and righties is below. Giants vs. Left/vs. Right Hitting Rankings in MLB vs. Right-Handed Pitchers Stats Number
Rank AVG .251 13th
HR 39 3rd
RBI 101 10th
OPS .812 3rd
vs. Left-Handed Pitchers

Stats Number Rank
AVG .224 25th
HR 9 T-14th
RBI 27 22nd
OPS .632 28th

LEANING LEFT: The Giants are 5-5 when the opposing starter is left-handed…they’ve won the last three. K-BB RATIO: RHP Alex Cobb (8.25), RHP Anthony DeSclafani (10.00) and RHP Logan Webb (8.60) all have K to BB ratios of 8/1 or better…according to SIS, last season, seven pitchers threw at least 100 innings and had a K-BB ratio of 6/1 or better – Aaron Nola, Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Lance Lynn, Justin Verlander and George Kirby.

PYRO THAIRO: IF Thairo Estrada’s hot end to April made him the Giants’ all-time leader in hits (36) before May (Stats, LLC)…entering play today, Estrada ranks inside MLB’s top10 in hits (38, T-8th), batting average (.342, 4th), and stolen bases (9, T-10th).
Most Hits in March/April by a Giant (Single Season) – Stats, LLC

Player Hits
Thairo Estrada (2023) 36
Pablo Sandoval (2013) 35
Tito Fuentes (1973) 34
Player Hits
Garry Maddox (1974) 34
Matt Williams (1996) 34
Ángel Pagán (2014) 34

CAN’T WAIT TO GET THAT RING: Giants GM Pete Putila, who had spent the previous 12 seasons with the Houston Astros, will receive his 2022 World Series ring today…the Astros went 230-154 (.599) during Putila’s three years as an assistant GM, the second-best winning percentage in the Majors.

LATE-GAME WOES: Late rallies by the opponent have been a common occurrence this season and it happened again on Monday with the Astros plating five runs in the 7th inning, breaking a 2-2 tie…SF pitchers have allowed 70 runs in the 7th inning or later, which is the second in the Majors behind the White Sox (74)…Houston’s offense leads MLB with 62 runs in the 7th inning or later.

Most Runs Allowed in 7th Inning or Later
Team Runs
White Sox 75
Giants 70
Athletics 67
Team Runs
Phillies 49
Rockies 48
Padres 48

THE INJURY BUG: The Giants lost two of their starters on Monday with news of IF Brandon Crawford (grade 1 right calf strain) and OF Mike Yastrzemski (grade 1 left hamstring strain) hitting the Injured List…according to Stats, LLC, the Giants have 244 total player days on the Injured List this season, 15th of the 30 MLB Clubs…SF has had 13 different players on the IL this year, tied with the Dodgers and Yankees for the second-most in MLB (Mets have had 14 different players on the IL).

LEADOFF LAMONTE: IF/OF LaMonte Wade Jr. is establishing himself as one of the top leadoff hitters this year, having reached base safely via hit, walk or hit by pitch in 23 of his 27 games with a plate appearance…his .441 on-base percentage ranks as the fourth-highest in MLB behind MIA’s Luis Arraez (.495), TOR’s Matt Chapman (.455) and ATL’s Ronald Acuna Jr. (.449)…he also ranks within the top 1% of the league in walk percentage at 21.4%.

MORE ON LAMONTE: According to Sports Info Solutions, the Giants have scored a run 15% of the time when Wade Jr.’s been on base via a hit that wasn’t a home run, walk or HBP… last season, he scored 31% of the time he was on base.

BETTER TO GET AHEAD: Giants hitters have a .980 OPS after they get ahead in the count 1-0…that ranks second in MLB behind only the Rays (1.002)…they have a .549 OPS after they get down 0-1…that ranks 26th (SIS).

HEADING HOME: Following today’s game the Giants will head home to the Bay Area where they’ll enjoy an off day tomorrow before starting a six-game homestand Friday against the Brewers (Fri-Sun) and Nationals (Mon-Wed).

ON THE MOUND: Giants starting pitchers have fashioned a 3.46 ERA this season, the sixth-lowest figure in the big leagues just behind the Braves (3.14), Twins (3.16), Rays (3.20), Cubs (3.24) and Astros (3.24)…Giants relievers, however, have combined for a 6.34 ERA, ranking 28th out of 30 teams

TODAY’S STARTER – LOGAN WEBB RHP #62
2023 RECORD: 1-5, 4.10 ERA

WITH THE GIANTS: Is in the midst of his fifth season with SF…made his fourth career Opening Day roster and his second consecutive Opening Day start with his outing on March 30 at the Yankees… signed a five-year, $90 million extension on April 14 that keeps him in a Giants uniform through 2028…the contract bought out his final two arbitration years and first three years of free agency.

LAST TIME OUT: Unfortunately he returned to the loss column in his last outing despite another solid start last Thursday vs. St. Louis in the Giants home finale…Webb allowed two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings while striking out seven and walking one in the 102-pitch effort…it wouldn’t have mattered much as the Giants were blanked 6-0 and failed to score a run for Webb for a second time this year.

SUPPORT SYSTEM: As mentioned above, the Giants offense has gone dormant in two of Webb’s six starts this year when he’s been on the bump…in two others they’ve scored just one run…in the two other starts they scored three and seven runs…Webb’s 2.89 run support average (run support per 9.0 innings) is eighth-lowest in the Majors among qualified pitchers and fourth-lowest in the NL… only MIA’s Sandy Alcantara (1.27), PHI’s Bailey Falter (1.95) and MIA’s Jesús Luzardo (2.67) have a lower average.

VS. HOUSTON: Today marks Webb’s third career start vs. the Astros and his first against them since 2021…he’s 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA (4er, 9.1ip) in the two outings with one of them coming here at Minute Maid Park…that start came on August 10, 2020 during the pandemic season where no fans were allowed in the stadium…when he faced them in 2021, Webb limited the Astros to two runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings in a 5-3 Giants win at Oracle Park on August 1.

I WATCHED A CHANGE…IN YOU: Through his first four starts this year opponents hit .344 with a .563 slugging % off his changeup… in his last two starts, opposing hitters have gone 1-for-21 (.048) against the pitch with one single, nine strikeouts and one walk… last season, they batted .204 with a .286 slugging %…during his breakout 2021 season, opponents had a .263 average with a .365 slugging % off the changeup.

STRANGER THINGS…: Webb has allowed multiple homers in two of his five outings this season after doing so just one time all of 2022…furthermore, he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his last four starts, the longest such streak of his career…he’d never allowed a homer in more than two consecutive games prior to this year…his HR/9.0ip ratio this year is 1.69…from 2020-2022, Webb owned a 0.55 HR/9.0ip ratio in 72 games (69 starts).

A CONCERNING RECENT TREND…: Over the last 2+ seasons as Webb has come into his own, the Giants as a team are 40- 24 (.625) in games that he has started since 2021…however, SF is 1-5 in his five starts this season and has lost 9-of-hislast-14 dating to August 18, 2022…in those 14 starts, Webb has received one or fewer runs of support eight times…he himself has a 3.28 ERA in those 14 starts while posting a 9.26 K/9ip ratio and a 5.47 K/BB ratio.

THAT’S STRIKEOUTS WITH A K: The righty has whiffed 43 batters in 37.1 innings so far in 2023 (10.37 K/9ip)…his 43 punchouts are tied for 10th-best in the Majors while his 8.60 K/BB ratio is sixth-best in MLB…for reference, Webb’s highest K/9 of his career came in his breakout 2021 season where he averaged 9.6 strikeouts per 9.0 innings…looking at this season a different way, Webb is striking out 28.9% of his batters faced (43 strikeouts in 149 batters faced)…that total would be the best of his career ahead of his 26.5% rate in 2021…last
year his strikeout percentage was 20.7%.

EARLY RETURNS: Webb’s 67.1% first-pitch strike percentage is up from last year’s 65.1% average and above his career average of 64.2%…he posted a career-best 66.6% ground ball rate in his breakout 2021 campaign.

STAYING GROUNDED: His 58.6 groundball percentage this season is up from last year’s 56.8% mark and hovering just above his career average of 57.0%.

HOUSTON ASTROS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME: The Astros and Giants will play the rubber game of their three-game series in Houston today with a pitching matchup of Opening Day starters in LHP Framber Valdez opposite RHP Logan Webb…Valdez has been a consistent workhorse for the Astros this season, as he’s tossed 7.0 innings in four of his six starts, including his last two outings.

FRAMTASTIC: LHP Framber Valdez enters today with 39.0 innings pitched on the season, which ranks second in the AL, trailing only RHP Gerrit Cole (46.2)…Valdez and Cole have been two of the best pitchers in the AL over the last three-plus seasons (2020-23) as they both rank in the top three in the AL over that timespan in wins and ERA. AL Wins Leaders (2020-23) AL ERA Leaders (2020-23) Gerrit Cole: 41 Shane Bieber: 2.73
Framber Valdez: 35 Framber Valdez: 3.01 Dylan Cease: 34 Gerrit Cole: 3.10

AT THE HELM: Astros skipper Dusty Baker is in his 26th season as a manager and his fourth in Houston…Baker, who ranks ninth all-time in managerial wins with 2,109, has an outside shot of moving up to sixth all time by seasons end…Baker got 840 of those victories as the Giants manager from 1993-2002.

VS. THE GIANTS: The Astros and Giants have a long history against each other, with the Astros having played the Giants 734 times in their history, their second-most against any individual opponent, trailing only the Reds (848g)…while the Giants own the all-time advantage (381-353) over the Astros, Houston has gone 10-6 in 16 games against the Giants since 2015.

WELCOME BACK!: This series, the Astros are welcoming back Giants General Manager Pete Putila, who spent the last 12 sea- sons (2011-23) in the Astros baseball operations department before being hired as the Giants GM last October…the Astros will present Putila with his 2023 World Series Championship ring on the field today at approximately 11:15 a.m. CT.

TODAY’S RING GIVEAWAY: Today, the Astros will give away a Jose Altuve World Series Replica Ring, presented by Jostens, to all fans in attendance…Altuve’s replica ring is the fourth of 13 scheduled replica ring giveaways this season.

YESTERDAY’S ROSTER MOVE: Prior to last night’s game, the Astros placed RHP Luis Garcia on the 15-day IL with right elbow discomfort…to take his place on the active roster, the Astros recalled LHP Matt Gage (#91) from Triple A Sugar Land.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: The Astros were shutout for the first time this season last night in a 2-0 loss to the Giants…RHP Hunter Brown (2ER/4.1IP) started for Houston and was handed his first Major League loss…C Yainer Diaz was the Astros player of the game, as he went 2×3 with a double, while throwing out two attempting basestealers.

ON THE BUMP: The Astros rank second in the Majors in team ERA (3.17), trailing only the Rays (3.03)…their bullpen ERA of 2.76 is the lowest in the Majors, while their starter’s ERA of 3.44 ranks third in the AL.

UNDER THE RADAR: RHP Phil Maton and RHP Bryan Abreu have been outstanding in the early going this season…Maton has allowed just three hits and one run in his first 12 appearances (15IP) with 16 strikeouts…opponents are just 3×48 (.063) vs. him (RHH are 0x20, LHH are 3×28)…Abreu has tallied 22 strikeouts in his 14.1 IP while allowing just one earned run for a 0.63 ERA, and also posting a .109 opponent average (5×46).

CASE MADE: RHP Hunter Brown made a strong case to be the American League’s Rookie of the Month for April after going 3-0 with a 2.37 ERA (8ER/30.1IP), a .206 opponent average and 32 strikeouts in five starts in the month…Brown is trying to become the first Astros pitcher to win Rookie of the Month since RHP Collin McHugh in September of 2014…voting results will be announced via press release later today.

LATE ATTACK: The Astros offense has come alive late in games this season, producing a 60 runs in the 7th-9th innings, which ranks second in the Majors trailing only the Dodgers (61)…the Astros top two innings, in terms of runs scored, this season have been the 7th (25 runs) and the 8th (20 runs).

FIRST TURN RANKINGS: The Astros have several players currently ranking within the top 10 in the AL…LF Yordan Alvarez ranks tied for third in RBI (27), eighth in OBP (.387), and eighth in OPS (.916)…3B Alex Bregman ranks second in walks (21), while RF Kyle Tucker ranks tied for fourth in walks (19)…also, SS Jeremy Peña ranks tied for sixth in runs (21), while 2B Mauricio Dubón ranks ninth in batting average (.305).

TRAFFIC:LF Yordan Alvarez has opened his season by reaching base safely in all 24 of his games, which is the longest streak in the AL this season…going back to last season, Alvarez has reached base safely in 28 straight games, a streak that ties his career-long streak, also reached from Aug. 22-Sept. 27, 2019.

SUPER SUB: Former Giant 2B Mauricio Dubón has made 25 starts at second base this season, filling in for 2B Jose Altuve… Dubón has produced a .305 (32×105) average this season, which ranks ninth in the AL, and is coming off a 20-game hitting streak, which was snapped on Friday…his hit streak is the longest in the Majors this season and ranks as the longest in club history before May 1…it was also the longest streak by an Astro since OF Hunter Pence had a 23-game streak in 2011.

WORKING THEIR WAY BACK: The Astros have a pair of outfielders rehabbing with minor league affiliates:
• LF Michael Brantley, on the IL while recovering from right shoulder surgery, is currently on an injury rehab assignment with Triple A Sugar Land…he’s played in six games so far, hitting .333 (6×18) with five walks and three RBI in six starts (5 in LF, 1 at DH) for the Space Cowboys… last night, Brantley had a huge game, going 3×4 with two doubles and a walk in a start in left field.

• OF Chas McCormick, on the IL with lower back tightness, began an injury rehab assignment with Double A Corpus Christi on Saturday and has played in three games for the Hooks so far…in those contest, he is 2×8 with two walks and a stolen base in his three starts.

TONIGHT’S ASTROS STARTER: LHP FRAMBER VALDEZ
LAST START – 4/28 VS. PHI: allowed 3 runs on 8 hits with 3 strikeouts in 7.0 innings… has tossed 7.0 innings 4 times this season, which is most in the Majors…notched his 5th consecutive quality start of the season…dating back to the start of the 2022, he leads the Majors in quality starts with 31…tossed 109 total pitches, which is a season-high and the 3rd-most of his career behind a 114 pitch outing on May 30, 2022 at OAK, and a 113 pitch outing on Aug. 24, 2020 vs. LAA.

LEAGUE LEADERBOARD: in AL, is 2nd in innings (39.0) and 10th in ERA (2.54)…is T-1st in AL with 5 quality starts.

REVERSE, REVERSE: has posted reverse splits to open his ‘23 campaign, holding right-handed hitters to a .222 batting average (28×126) while lefties are batting .391 (9×23)…traditionally, has been extremly tough on left-handed hitters, holding them to a .214 average (87×406) and a .621 OPS throughout his career, allowing just seven homers.

VS. THE GIANTS: will be making his 2nd career appearance against the Giants (both starts)… made his 1st start against them on 7/30/21 at San Francisco, tossing 5.0 IP and allowing 2 runs, 4 hits and 3 walks, striking out 5 batters.

STAYING GROUNDED: among AL starters this year, ranks 1st in groundball percentage (65.2)

• Wednesday’s matchup features 2 of the best ground ball artists in MLB… Valdez owns a career 66.5% groundball percentage, which ranks as the lowest percentage in the Majors since 2018 (min. 300 IP)…SF RHP Logan Webb is the next-closest over that span at 57.0 %…since ground ball percentage started being tracked in 1987, Valdez career ground ball percentage is the highest ever posted by a starting pitcher (min. 250 IP)…Webb, who debuted in ‘19, has the 3rd-highest.

ABOUT VALDEZ: the 2022 All-Star is pitching in his 6th Major League season (2018-23) and his fourth as a staple in the Astros rotation.

• has been one of the AL’s most prolific starters since 2020, ranking 2nd in the AL in opponent OPS (.625), ERA (3.01) and wins (35), 5th in opponent’s batting avg (.277), and innings (445.2) and 7th in pitcher’s WAR (4.8) and strikeouts (429) in that timespan.

OPENING DAY STARTER: made his 2nd consecutive (and career) Opening Day start…is the first Astros pitcher to make back-to-back Opening Day starts since Justin Verlander (2018-21)

• was the second Dominican-born pitcher to start Opening Day for the Astros, joining Wandy Rodriguez in 2012…was one of three Dominican-born pitchers to get Opening Day nod in ‘23, joining Marlins RHP Sandy Alcantara and Mariners RHP Luis Castillo.

• was the third LHP in Astros history to make back-to-back Opening Days, joining Dallas Keuchel (2015-17) and Dave Roberts (1973-74).

• became the first Dominican-born pitcher in Astros history to pick up a winning decision on Opening Day in ‘22…tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits and striking out 6 batters to 1 walk, in a 3-1 win at LAA.

WITH THE ‘STROS: signed by the Astros as a 21-year-old international free agent from the Dominican Republic on March 18, 2015.

• the left-hander has gone 43-26 with a 3.32 ERA (204ER/553.1IP) and 534 strikeouts in 104 games (82 starts) in the Majors with Houston from 2018-23.

• for his career in the postseason, he’s recorded a 3.41 ERA (26 ER/68.2 IP) in 12 career games (12 GS)…since ‘20 leads all MLB pitchers in postseason wins (7), strikeouts (75), IP (68.2) and quality starts (7).