Friday, November 22, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: San Diego Padres (68-77) at Los Angeles Dodgers (87-56)

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Manny Machado homers twice and Friars make 5-run comeback, score 11 runs over the Dodgers for the 1st time since 2015

  • The Padres’ 11 runs scored over the Dodgers last night were their most since they plated 11 on May 24, 2015 in Chavez Ravine…after trailing 7-2 at the end of the 3rd, the Padres cut the differential by plating 2 in the 4th and 3 in the 6th, and they scored 4 in the 9th on Juan Soto and Xander Bogaerts’ HRs..Bogaerts went 3-for-5, and Soto went 3-for-5 with 4 RBI. The Padres combined for 4 homers (including 2 from Manny Machado in the 4th and 6th)…the 5-run deficit they erased was their most in a game this season, besting their previous comeback of 4 runs on April 30 vs. SF in Mexico City. Starter Pedro Avila surrendered a career-high 7 ER in just 2.2 innings…but the 5 Padres relievers combined for 6.1 IP of 1 run, 3-hit ball…Robert Suarez got the win, pitching at Dodger Stadium for the 1st time since Game 2 of the 2022 NLDS.

Who’s hot?

  • Last night, Manny Machado homered 2x for his 5th multi-HR game this year, 18th in a Padre uniform, and the 38th of his career…since Manny’s rookie season in ’12, his 38 multi-HR games are the most of any player…in his last 7 games since Sept. 3, he’s gone 11-for-30 (.367) with 3 HR, 6 RBI, and 8 R. Since the beginning of September, Xander Bogaerts leads the NL in AVG, batting .462 (18-for-39) with 6 doubles, 3 HR, 5 RBI, and 12 runs scored, and he has hit safely in 9 of his 10 G.

Who’s not?

  • Prior to his 3-hit, 4-RBI game yesterday, Juan Soto had gone just 3-for-20 in his previous 6 games (.150)…his 4 RBI last night tied his season high (now done 4x)…in his last 7 games, Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone just 3-for-29 (.103), but 2 of his 3 hits were home runs.

1-run, extra-inning, & 4-game win streak woes

  • The Friars are the only team this year to have yet to win an extra-inning game (0-11), and they are 6-22 in 1-run games, with their .214 winning % in such games being the lowest in MLB…they’re also the only team in baseball to have yet to have a win streak longer than 3 games.

Statcast Says…

  • San Diego pitchers have induced MLB’s lowest opponent exit velocity at 88.1 mph, and the Padres’ 37.1 opponent hard hit percentage is also the best in baseball.

STARTER – #52 MICHAEL WACHA
Wacha makes his 21st start of 2023
32-year-old Michael Wacha takes the mound for his 21st start of the season, and 2023 now is his 3rd straight season in making 20+ starts (7th of his career)…his next win will be his 12th winning decision, tying 2017 for his 2nd-most in a season (trailing his 17 from 2015 w/ STL).

1st start vs. Dodgers since ’19
He’ll be making his 1st appearance against the Dodgers as a Padre and 1st since 2019 with the Cardinals…it’ll be his 11th all-time start against Los Angeles, and he’ll be looking for his 1st winning decision against them since June 4, 2015 @ LAD…it’ll be his 5th all-time start in Chavez Ravine, but he has a 7.23 ERA with a 1-3 record at Dodger Stadium.

Looking to bounce back from his last outing vs. PHI
Wacha was saddled with the loss in his last outing on Wednesday, September 6 vs. the Phillies after going just 4.0 innings on 7 hits with 3 earned runs allowed…it snapped an 8-start streak of going at least 5.0 innings…he walked 3 in the outing, and he’s now walked multiple batters in a season-long 4 straight startss ince August 21st.

Best winning percentage in MLB since ’22 (.815)
Has earned the win in 4 of his last 6 starts and enters tonight’s tilt with a 11-3 record and the Padres are 13-7 in his 20 starts…among all qualifying pitchers since the beginning of 2022, Wacha’s .815 winning percentage (22-5) is the best in the Majors, ahead of Tony Gonsolin (24-6, .800), Brandon Woodruff (18-5, .783) and Clayton Kershaw (24-7, .774).

Stints on the shelf
After posting his 9th quality start on June 19 @ SF, Wacha had his turn skipped in the rotation twice due to shoulder fatigue…he then improved to 8-2 in his 15th start on July 1 @ CIN and was then placed on the 15-Day IL with right shoulder inflammation on July 4… was reinstated on August 15, and since then, he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA (10 ER, 25.2 IP).

Happy 10.000
On Mon, July 17, Wacha reached 10.000 years of ML service time…he’s currently 1 of 7 Padres with 10.000+ years of service time, with Xander Bogaerts recently joining the club Aug 6.

With RISP/bases loaded
Michael has yet to allow a hit with the bases loaded this year (opponents are 0-for-8)…with RISP, opponents are hitting just .181 (17-for-94) and just .174 (8-for-46) with RISP & 2 out.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS NOTES:

MINI STAND ROLLS ON: The Dodgers lost to the Padres for just the third time this season last night in the first game of their three-game series and L.A.’s short, three-game homestand. The Boys in Blue are now just 4-6 in the month of September after a dominating August run of 24-5. The club also fell to 31-16 (.660) in the first game of a series this season. The Dodgers’ quest for their 25th NL West crown since moving to Los Angeles presses forward tonight as the club needs wins in the next two games in order to avoid losing its first series to the Padres since June 21-23, 2021. Following the series finale tomorrow night, the club will head north to Seattle for three games against the Mariners this weekend (Sept. 15-17). The Dodgers hold a 12.0-game lead over Arizona in the National League West division. Los Angeles is 36-18 (.667) in the second half, which is the best post All-Star break record in the National League. Tonight, the first 40,000 fans in attendance will receive a Freddie Freeman jersey, presented by Bank of America. Freeman, who is celebrating his 34th birthday today, has hit three career home runs in his big day, ripping longballs in 2013, 2017 and 2021.

MAGIC MEN: The Dodgers magic number to clinch the National League West division for the 10th time in the last 11 seasons remained at seven games, following the loss and a win by Arizona. The Dodgers’ earliest clinch date would be Friday, September 15 as they would need to win their next three games and the Diamondbacks would need to lose their next four consecutive games (the Dodgers are idle on Thursday). Last season, the Dodgers clinched the division September 13, which was the second earliest clinch by calendar date in club history, trailing only the 2019 squad’s September 10 clinch.

COUGHED IT UP: Led by Mookie Betts, the Dodger bats roared in the first three innings as the Boys in Blue jumped out to a 7-2 lead and looked on their way to a comfortable win over the Padres. However, the Padres eventually tied the game in the sixth and scored four in the ninth on their way to an 11-8 victory. The five-run lead the Dodgers gave back tied for their largest blown lead loss of the season, matching the five-run advantage they gave up on June 6 in Cincinnati. Betts went 2-for-4 with a double, homer and four RBI while J.D. Martinez and Chris Taylor also chipped in with two hits apiece. Max Muncy hit a solo shot, his 35th homer of the season, leaving him one shy of his career best. Muncy has now reached 35+ home runs four times in his career, something accomplished by just one other Dodger as Duke Snider belted 35 or more in consecutive seasons from 1953-57. Dodger reliever Ryan Brasier struck out the side last night in his lone inning of work and is now 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA (3 ER/33.1 IP) with a 0.66 WHIP in 32 games since making his Dodger debut on June 21. Brusdar Graterol, who currently has fired 18.1 consecutive scoreless innings, also pitched on June 21 and since then has posted a 0.29 ERA (1 ER/30.2 IP). Since Brasier’s debut, that duo is 4-0 with five saves and a 0.56 (4 ER/64.0 IP) ERA in 61 combined games.

THAT DUDE: Dodger All-Star Mookie Betts cracked his career high 39th home run last night, which ranks fourth in the National League. The lead-off was his 12th of the season, leaving him one shy of the all-time single season record for leadoff homers, currently held by Alfonso Soriano, who ripped 13 from the one-hole in 2003. Betts’ 39 homers from the leadoff spot are tied with Soriano (2006) and George Springer (2019) for the most in a single season. In addition, his 103 RBI batting first are tied with Charlie Blackmon (2017) for the most in a single season. Betts now has 48 career leadoff homers, which are tied with Ian Kinsler for fifth all-time, five behind Hall of Famer Craig Biggio.

THE SAN DIEGO SYNOPSIS: The Dodgers are 8-3 vs. the Padres in 2023, including a 3-1 record at Dodger Stadium. L.A. has outscored San Diego 63-45 in the series this year and since the beginning of 2022, the Dodgers are 22- 8 against San Diego. Over the last three seasons, Los Angeles is 34-15 (.694) vs. San Diego during the regular season. Going back further, the Dodgers are 41-16 (.719) against the Padres at home since 2017.

DANCING WITH FREDDIE: Dodger first baseman Freddie Freeman went 1-for-4 with a run scored last night and remains six doubles away from becoming the first player with 60+ doubles since Charlie Gehringer (60) and Joe Medwick (64) in 1936. The All-Star is slashing .373/.448/.612 with 22 doubles, eight homers and 28 RBI in his last 51 games since July 17. Freeman ranks third in the Majors in runs scored (117), trailing just Ronald Acuña Jr. (131) and teammate Mookie Betts (119). He is second in the Majors with 190 hits and leads the Majors with 81 extra-base hits, while his .335 average ranks third in the Majors. He is four runs and 10 hits away from setting new career highs in both categories. The California native is closing in on uncharted territory as he is tied for 25th all-time with 54 doubles in a season:

TONIGHT’S STARTER vs. PADRES: RHP LANCE LYNN (10-11, 6.09 ERA in 28 GS)
2023 SEASON NOTES:

  • In his seventh start for the Dodgers on September 6 against the Marlins, he tossed 4.2 innings, giving up seven hits, eight runs, three walks and three home runs while striking one in the loss…was traded from the White Sox alongside teammate Joe Kelly on July 28. Over 28 starts, the Indiana native owns a 10-11 record with a 6.09 ERA (108 ER/159.2 IP) with 172 strikeouts against 56 walks and has generated a 1.42 WHIP. Tossed a career-high 16 strikeouts on June 18 against Seattle. Since joining the Dodgers, he is 4-2 in seven starts with a 4.95 ERA (22 ER/40.0 IP) and 28 strikeouts against 11 walks. Notched his first win of the season on May 5 against Cincinnati, spinning 6.2 innings and giving up eight hits, four runs, a homer and eight strikeouts. Pitched in four spring training games with the White
    Sox, going 2-0 with a 1.09 ERA (7 ER/14.2 IP)

VS. PADRES:

  • Will face San Diego for the 11th time in his career…is 5-3 with a 2.61 ERA (18 ER/62.0 IP) and 48 strikeouts against 20 walks. Last faced the club on August 6 with the Dodgers, \spinning six one-run innings and giving up four hits, \ne home run and two walks while striking out six in the win.
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