Thursday, October 17, 2024
BougeRV Solar Generator

MLB Preview: San Diego Padres (62-70) at St. Louis Cardinals (56-76)

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Blake Snell lowers his ERA to an MLB-best 2.60 as he works 7.0 scoreless in the Padres 4-1 win

  • Starter Blake Snell matched his season high in innings with 7.0 IP, and he didn’t allow a single run with just 2 hits…Snell punched out 9 while walking 5, and he improved to 11-9 with a 2.60 ERA on the season.
  • Former Cardinal Matt Carpenter went 2-for-4 with an RBI and a walk, and Garrett Cooper went 3-for-5 with 3 RBI for his 1st 3-hit game as a Padre and his 7th on the season.
  • The win snapped a Padres’ 7-game losing streak against STL here at Busch Stadium…it was their 1st win in St. Louis since April 6, 2019, against former Cardinal, Michael Wacha.
  • Gary Sánchez doubled for the Padres’ sole extra-base hit, and the team went 3-for-12 with RISP…the Padres have had 31 games this year in which they had just 1 or no extra-base hits, and they are 7-24 now in such games.

Padres have 30 games to turn it around

  • With 30 games left in the regular season (including today), the Padres are -7.0 games back in the NL Wild Card, behind the Marlins (-2.5 GB), Reds (-1.5 GB), and Giants (-0.5 GB)…occupying the 3 NL Wild Card spots are the D-Backs (0.0 GB) Cubs (+0.5 GB), and Phillies (+4.5).

Today is game 24 of playing 32 games in 34 days

  • Today’s game is the Padres 24th in a stretch of playing 32 games in 34 days (from August 4-Sept. 6)… prior to Thursday’s off day in Milwaukee, the club played 19 games in 20 days.

Who’s hot?

  • Garrett Cooper has hit safely in 6 straight games, going 11-for-23 in that span (.478) with a double and 3 RBI in that span…Cooper also has 5 hits in his last 2 games.
  • In the 4 games this trip, Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 5-for-16 (.313) with a double, 2 walks, and 4 runs.
  • Also in the 4 G this trip, Gary Sánchez has a double and 2 HRs batting .286 (4-for-14) with a .786 SLG.

Who’s not?

  • Manny Machado has hit safely in 5 straight games, but he hasn’t had a multi-hit performance since August 21 vs. Miami…since that multi-hit game, he’s hit .217 (5-for-23) with 1 double, 1 HR, and 3 RBI.
  • In Juan Soto’s last 9 G, he’s hit .219 (7-for-32) with 1 HR and 7 BB.

STARTING PITCHER – #67 SETH LUGO
Lugo set for 3rd career start vs. STL
33-year-old Seth Lugo takes the mound for his career-high 21st start of ’23, surpassing his 18 starts from 2017 for the most in a single season…both of his 2 starts vs. STL came in ’16-17, when he allowed 1 ER across 11.2 P…he’s made 8 career relief outings vs. STL, posting 3 holds with a 5.73 ERA (7 ER, 11.0 IP), 1.45 WHIP and .267 AVG.

Extends scoreless inning streak to 12.0 Wed vs. MIA
Lugo enters tonight’s tilt with a 12.0 scoreless inning streak, the 6th-longest of his career and his longest exclusively as a starter…he posted back-to-back 6.0 inning shutouts on Aug 18 vs. ARI and Aug 23 vs. MIA…he’s now allowed 2 ER-or-fewer in all 6 of his career starts vs. MIA, going 3-0 with a 2.01 ERA (7 ER, 31.1 IP)…on the season, his 12 quality outings are 2nd-most on SD’s staff behind only Snell’s 15…Last Wed vs. MIA was Lugo’s first winning decision since Fri, July 21 @ DET…the Tigers were his 29th team to face, and he’s now sqaured off against every ML club except his former squad, the New York Mets.

Run support issues
Lugo joins 6 other hurlers to have made at least 14 starts since May 10 and have 2-or-fewer winning decisions…his 3.69 run support average is 8th-fewest in the NL and 15th-fewest in the Majors since May 10 (min. 14 starts).

Limiting the free passes
Lugo has walked 2-or-fewer in 16 of 20 starts in ’23, including 7 starts with 0 free passes… the 7 starts with 0 walks allowed over 5.0+ IP are T-3rd most among all NL pitchers this season…he ranks in the 89th percentile in BB%, and his 5.5 BB% is 2nd-lowest in his career (5.1 BB% in 2019).

First time through
Michael Wacha (.179) and Yu Darvish (.195) rank 4th and 5th, respectively, among all qualifying NL starters in opponent AVG the first time thru a batting order…Lugo doesn’t qualify, but his .208 AVG (35-168) the first time thru woud rank 8th in the NL…opponents are batting .305 (50-164) the 2nd time thru and .264 (24-91) the 3rd time thru.

Inside the curve
Just like in ’22, Lugo ranks in the 100th percentile in curveball spin rate, averaging 3,2376 rpm, but opp are hitting .273 against it compared to the .159 clip against it in ’22…he is averaging 60.2 inches of vertical drop on his curve – which is the 4th-highest vertical drop – and an average of 7.3 inches and 14% more drop – of all ML curveballs

NL West Success (except for 1.0 inning)
Lugo has allowed 16 ER in 39.1 IP vs. NL West opponents this season (3.66 ERA), but half of his ER (8) came in 1 inning vs. LAD (T-4th on Aug 7)…remove that inning, and he has a 1.89 ERA (8 ER, 38.1 IP) vs. the division this season…overall, he owns a 3.44 ERA in (55 ER, 144.0 IP) in 62 career appearances (14 starts) vs. the NL West.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS NOTES:

RECENT REDBIRDS: The St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres play the second game of a three-game series tonight at Busch Stadium … The Cardinals dropped their fourth straight game last night, 4-1, as the Redbirds logged their 5th consecutive game with double-digit strikeouts and homered for their lone run … St. Louis has scored four total runs in its last four games, all coming via homer (3 HR) … After Thursday’s scheduled off day, the division-rival Pittsburgh Pirates visit St. Louis for three games this weekend as rosters expand to 28 players for the final month of the regular season.

FLIGHT PATTERN: The Cardinals have lost 10 of their last 12 games … St. Louis enters the day in 5th place in the NL Central, a season-low 18.5 games out of first and a season-high 20 games under .500 … St. Louis has spent 114 of 148 days in last place on the MLB schedule (April 26-May 19, May 29-July 7 & July 28-present) … The Cardinals 56-76 record is their lowest at the 132- game mark since 1955 when they were 55-77 (.417) … St. Louis would need to finish 25-5 (.833) over its remaining 30 games to avoid finishing under .500 for the first time since 2007 (78-84).

WHO’S YOUR PADRE: The Cardinals all-time .664 (168-85) home win percentage over the Padres (1969-present) is the 2nd-highest win pct. by one team vs. any opponent at home in MLB history behind the Yankees (.668, 175-87) success over the Royals in New York … Since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006, the Cardinals .691 home win pct. (38-17) vs. the Padres is their 2nd-best against any visitor behind only Colorado (.750, 45-15) … St. Louis was 130-68 (.637) against the Friars at Busch Stadium II (1969-2005), their best against any opponent in that stadium’s history.

LUGO WE GO: In 11 career plate appearances vs. Seth Lugo, Nolan Arenado is batting .600/.545/1.600 (6-10) with 3 HR and one double … Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .667/.700/1.333 (6-9) with 2 HR and a walk in 10 plate appearances … The cornerstone duo rank as the top two in batting and slugging vs. Lugo among opposing batters with 10+ PA.

GO DIRECTLY TO JAIL. DO NOT PASS GO: Cardinals outfielders have thrown out 27 baserunners this season, 2nd-most in Major League Baseball behind the Royals (33) … Jordan Walker leads St. Louis in outfield assists (6), while throwing out four runners in August to share the MLB lead this month … The 21-year-old rookie is averaging 93.7 mph on his outfield throws, 13th-fastest among all MLB players (Colorado’s Nolan Jones leads at 98.9) and tops among all Cardinals since Statcast began tracking (2020-23).

THIS OR THAT: Over their last 14 games (Aug. 14-present), the Cardinals have scored six runs or more in all four victories, but just three runs or fewer in all 10 defeats.

HEARTBREAK HOTEL: St. Louis is 10-23 (.303) in one-run games this season, 2nd-lowest win percentage in one-run games in Major League Baseball to only San Diego (6-20, .231).

TONIGHT’S STARTING PITCHER: LHP ZACK THOMPSON (3-5, 3.86)
TONIGHT’S GAME

  • Second year player and former Cardinals 1st round draft pick (2019, 19th player overall) is making his 4th start of the 2023 season and the 5th of his young career.
  • Will round out facing all the National League teams (except for STL) with today’s start.
  • Has the 6th-lowest ERA (2.97) of active MLB pitchers with 40 or more appearances and four or more starts (Kershaw 2.48; deGrom 2.53; Bernardino 2.59; Alex Reyes 2.86; Treinen 2.86; Rasmussen 2.97).
  • In the month of August, posting a team-best 2.84 ERA over three starts (5 app.).
  • Received five runs of support in his last start, his first time receiving run support as a starting pitcher.
  • Matched his career-high 5.0 innings in each of his last two starts vs. NYM (8/18) & at PIT (8/23).
  • The eight strikeouts were the most by a Cardinals left-hander making his 2nd career start in franchise history.
  • Recalled on 8/1 from Memphis (AAA) – his 3rd stint with the Cardinals this season.
  • Appeared in just four games between St. Louis & Memphis (AAA) in July.
  • Has appeared in 11 games (9 starts) at Memphis & made 16 relief appearances (2 starts) for St. Louis this season, totaling 64.1 IP overall in 2023.
  • Earned his 1st win since 4/14 vs. PIT on 7/19 vs. MIA, tossing 2.0 scoreless innings on 29 pitches.
  • Induced 2 GIDP in 2.0 IP or fewer on 7/19 vs. MIA; 1st Cards pitcher to do so since Luke Weaver on 8/17/17 at PIT.
  • Was 1-4 with a 8.66 ERA at Memphis, striking out 41 batters over 34.1 IP while issuing 39 walks.

2023

  • Rejoined the rotation and has started each of his last two games and three of his last four. Began the season in the bullpen and made 15 relief appearances.
  • Made 2nd career start on 8/6 vs. COL and establish a career-high with eight strikeouts.

LAST TIME OUT

  • Earned his first win as a starting pitcher in MLB battling through 5.0 innings allowing two runs on six hits in a 6-4 win. Departed after a rain delay in the 6th inning leading 5-2. Was his first start in which he received run support.

DATE vs. RESULT DEC IP H R ER BB SO HR NP-S
8/23 @PIT W 6-4 W-3 5.0 6 2 2 1 5 1 90-57

Related Articles

Wager-Tracker: All Sports Betting Log

Latest Articles

ATS Wins