MLB Preview: San Diego Padres (55-60) at Arizona Diamondbacks (57-58)

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Arizona Diamondbacks logo

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Pads are swept in 2-game series in Seattle, have scored 1 run in the last 2 games

  • After getting shut out 2-0 on Tuesday in Seattle, the Padres fell 6-1 on Wednesday, getting swept for the 3rd time in 2023.
  • Starter Yu Darvish posted his 10th quality start, allowing 1 unearned run on 6 hits with 4 punchies and 2 walks…Steven Wilson was saddled with the loss, allowing a career-high tying 4 earned runs in his 0.2 IP.
  • San Diego batters went hitless with RISP and didn’t have an extra-base hit.

Padres to play 13 games in 13 days & 19 games in 20 days

  • Today is the 7th game of the Padres playing 19 in 20 days, and their sole off day in the span from August 4-23 was on Thursday, August 10…they’re also in a stretch of playing 32 games in 34 days (from August 4-September 6).
  • Beginning today against the D-Backs, the Padres will play 13 games in 13 days, with 7 of those 13 games against Arizona.

MLB’s ERA leader takes the bump

  • Despite leading the Majors in ERA (2.61), southpaw Blake Snell has an 8-8 record, and his 2.61 ERA is the 4th-lowest of any pitcher since 1990 among pitchers who have made at least 20 starts and not had a winning record (behind: Brandon Woodruff’s 2.56 ERA in 2021, Danny Duffy’s 2.53 ERA in 2014, and Cole Hamels’ 2.46 ERA in 2014)…Hamels, who started the year in the Padres’ Spring Training camp, announced his retirment last Friday (August 4).

Friars vs. Snakes

  • The Padres have won 10 of their last 14 games against the D-Backs since last year, and they’ve scored 4.93 runs per game vs. AZ with the Snakes scoring 4.34 r/g vs. San Diego…since 2021, the Friars have a 29-15 overall record (.659) against them.
  • In San Diego, the Friars have an all-time record of 132-93 vs. Arizona, but in Phoenix, they are 84-138.

Padres run differential & runs per game

  • SD has a +56 run differential this year, good for the 9th best in MLB this year (4th in the NL behind the Cubs’ 66, Dodgers’ 123, and Braves’ 163)…they have a out-scored their opponents per game by an average of 0.49 R/G, the 3rd highest in MLB history (since 1900) among teams who were under .500.
  • Since the year 1938, the only team with a worse record in 1-run games than the Padres’ 6-18 (.250) were the 2021 D-Backs’ 10-31 record (.244) in 1-run games (Sportstrader).

Pads on the bump, lead the National League in ERA

  • San Diego pitchers have a National League-best 3.81 ERA…Friar starters have posted a 3.72 ERA (2nd best in MLB) and relievers have a 3.95 ERA (14th in baseball), and their starters’ ERA difference of -0.24 from relievers is the 3rd highest of any team (with starters ERA better than relievers), trailing just the Nationals’ -0.37 difference and the Rangers’ -0.84 difference.

STARTER – BLAKE SNELL 4
Snell aims to continue dominance vs. Snakes
The 30-year-old left-hander enters today’s matchup as MLB’s ERA leader (2.61) and is 1 of 3 qualifying ML hurlers with a sub-.200 opp. AVG (.199) — also: Shohei Ohtani (.185 AVG) and Corbin Burnes (.191 AVG)…he takes the mound for his 8th career start vs. ARI, and 7 of the 8 will be in a Padre uniform since 2021…he is 4-1 in his 7 previous starts vs. ARI, and among all pitchers who have made at least 7 career starts vs. the D-Backs, he owns the lowest all-time ERA (0.84), WHIP (0,73) and opp. AVG (.142) vs. the club.

ERA goes up for first time in 15 starts since May 19
Last Sat vs. LAD, Snell allowed 3 ER in a start for the first time since May 19 vs. BOS (6 ER)… he had allowed just 6 total ER in his previous 13 starts (74.0 IP, 0.73 ERA)…it was just the 2nd time he allowed 3+ ER vs. LAD in 15 career starts, and among all active pitchers who have made at least 15 career starts vs.LAD, his .176 opp. AVG vs. LAD ranks 1st, and he ranks 2nd in both ERA (2.75 ERA) and WHIP (1.11) behind only Max Scherzer (2.40 ERA & 1.01 WHIP.

Shutouts/Punchouts/Quality Starts/100+ Pitch Outings
Snell has posted 8 outings this season w/ 0 ER allowed across 5.0+ frames – the most such starts in the Majors…all 8 of those starts have come in his 13 outings since May 31….he’s reached the 100 pitch plateau 13 times this season, T-most 100+ pitch outings this season w/ 4 others…he’s posted quality outings in 8 of his last 14 outings since May 25, having his quality start streak snapped at a career-high-tying 6 in a row on July 3 vs. LAA…he’s punched out 10+ in 5 of his last 11 outings…since 2018, he’s posted the most double-digit SO games (28) among all ML left-handers, ahead of Chris Sale (27) and Robbie Ray (26).

Leader of the pack since May 25
Among all qualifying pitchers since May 25, Snell ranks 1st in ERA (1.03 – next closest is
Musgrove’s 1.84) and strikeouts (116)…he also ranks 2nd in H/9 IP (5.24), opp. AVG (.168), OPS
(.509), SO/9 IP (13.22) and FIP (2.62).

When it matters most
With RISP, opponents are hitting .162 (18-111) and with RISP/ 2 out (5-51), they are hitting .098…in his 14 bases loaded situations, opponents are hitting .077 (1-13) with 1 BB.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS NOTES:

IN THE WEST: The D-backs are third in the NL West, 5.0 games behind the Giants and 11.5 games behind the Dodgers.

THE DIVISION STRETCH: The D-backs’ next 10 games will be against NL West teams: Padres (Aug. 11-13, Aug. 17-20) and Rockies (Aug. 14-16).

♦ Arizona is 18-16 vs. NL West opponents this season and 9-7 in their last 16 matchups.

♦ In 6 matchups this season, the D-backs are 2-4 vs. Padres…they split their 2-game series @ Padres (April 3-4) and went 1-3 in their home series from April 20-23.

♦ From today, 18 of Arizona’s fi nal 47 regular-season games are against NL West teams.

WHERE POWER MEETS SPEED: D-backs’ Corbin Carroll (No. 2 – behind Ronald Acuña Jr.) and Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. (No. 9) both rank in MLB’s Top 10 Power/Speed
Threats list.

♦ Carroll: 21 home runs, 36 steals, 99th percentile in sprint speed

♦ Tatis Jr.: 19 home runs, 17 steals, 94th percentile in sprint speed

SCORELESS THRU SEVEN: Wednesday night’s matchup marked only the third instance of a D-backs-Dodgers game going scoreless through 7.0 innings @ Chase Field and 10th overall [source: Elias Sports Bureau].

Aug. 9, 2023 ……………….. L, 0-2 vs. LAD
June 18, 2021 ……………… L, 0-3 vs. LAD
May 3, 2015 ……………………… L, 0-1 @ LAD
April 14, 2013 ……………… W, 1-0 vs. LAD
June 2, 2010 …………………….. L, 0-1 @ LAD
June 1, 2010 …………………….. L, 0-1 @ LAD
Aug. 3, 2007 …………………….. W, 1-0 @ LAD
Sept. 27, 2005 ………………….. W, 2-0 @ LAD
Sept. 20, 2000 ………………….. L, 0-1 @ LAD
Sept. 19, 2000 ………………….. L, 0-1 @ LAD

VS. PADRES @ HOME: Over the their last 4 games at home vs. Padres from April 20-23, the D-backs collected 8 doubles, 2 triples, 22 runs, 9 walks and, in their last
2 games, homered 4 times… with runners in scoring position in the 4-game span, the D-backs were 11-for-36 (.306) with 2 doubles, 1 triple, 1 homer, 6 walks and 2 stolen bases…despite losing the series, the D-backs outscored the Padres 22-19.

STRETCH OF CLOSE ONES: 9 of the D-backs’ last 11 games have been decided by 2 or fewer runs and, in 5 of their last 8 losses, they were tied or carried the lead
into the 5th inning or later.

July 29 vs. SEA ….. W ……..4-3 ……… (+1)
July 30 vs. SEA …………L …….. 0-4 ………..(-4)
July 31 @ SF ……… W ……..4-3 (11) .. (+1)
Aug. 1 @ SF ………… L …….3-4 ……… (-1) …… Led into 6th
Aug. 2 @ SF ………… L …….2-4 ……… (-2) …… Led into 5th
Aug. 3 @ SF ………… L …….0-1 ……… (-1)
Aug. 4 @ MIN ……… L …….2-3 ……… (-1) …… Led into 6th
Aug. 5 @ MIN …………..L …….. 1-12 ………(-11)
Aug. 6 @ MIN ……… L …….3-5 ……… (-2) …… Led into 9th
Aug. 8 vs. LAD …….. L …….4-5 ……… (-1)
Aug. 9 vs. LAD …….. L …….0-2 ……… (-2) …… Tied into 8th

SWIPIN’ BAGS: Since Aug. 4, the D-backs 12 stolen bases are tied for second in Majors (also: Dodgers), behind the Royals (13).

♦ Arizona ranks third in the Majors this season with 120 stolen bases, behind the Reds (130) and Rays (121).

♦ The D-backs set a new franchise high in stolen bases in a game with 8 on Aug. 6 @ Twins, breaking their previous record of 7 originally set in 2000 and matched twice since (all games with 7+ stolen bases have taken place on the road).

DIAMOND DEFENDERS: The D-backs’ .990 fielding pct. is the tied for the best in the Majors (also: Cardinals), while their 40 errors are the fewest, ahead of the Cardinals (43) and Orioles (45).

♦ Arizona’s 40 errors are the fewest in franchise history through the first 115 games of a season…the previous low was 44 in 2018.

♦ The current franchise low for errors in a full season (excluding 2020) is 75 in 2013 and 2018.

CARROLL ON THE BAGS: Corbin Carroll’s 36 stolen bases rank third in the Majors, behind Ronald Acuña Jr./ATL (53) and Esteury Ruiz/OAK (46).

♦ Carroll’s 36 stolen bases are the most by a rookie in D-backs’ franchise history, ahead of Chris Young/2007 (27).

♦ Carroll’s 36 stolen bases rank fi fth all-time by a D-back in a season, behind Tony Womack/1999 (72), Eric Byrnes/2007 (50), Tony Womack/2000 (45) and A.J. Pollock/2015 (39).

STARTING PITCHER – RHP RYNE NELSON ♦ #19
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: In 3 of his last 4 starts, has pitched into the sixth inning…allowed 2 or fewer runs in 2 of those 4 starts.

LAST START: Took the loss on Aug. 5 @ Twins (6 ER in 3.0 IP).

VS. PADRES: In 4 career starts, is 1-1 with a 4.43 ERA (12 R-11 ER in 22.1 IP).

  • Posted a no-decision in his last start on April 20 @ Chase Field (5 ER in 5.0 IP).
  • Won his Major League debut on Sept. 5, 2022 @ Petco Park, tossing 7.0 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts and no walks.
  • Became the second D-back since 2003 to make his MLB debut as a starter @ Petco
    Park (also: Merrill Kelly in 2019) since Edgar González on June 1, 2003.

VS. NL WEST: In 11 career starts, is 4-2 with a 4.67 ERA (33 R-32 ER in 61.2 IP) and .235
opponent average.

  • In his last 3 starts, is 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA (8 ER in 18.2 IP) and .232 opponent average…the D-backs are 4-0 in his last 4 contests.

NASTY NELLY: Is 4-0 with a 2.77 ERA (16 ER in 52.0 IP) when he pitches 6.0+ innings (8
GS).

IT’S UNDER CONTROL: Has walked 2 or fewer batters in 16 of his 23 starts.

PITCH TRACKING: Opposing batters are hitting .189 (10-for-53) with 12 strikeouts off his
changeup and .211 (12-for-57) with 12 strikeouts off his slider.

  • In his last 4 starts, opponents are batting .100 (1-for-10) off his slider.

FIRST PITCH SUCCESS: His first-pitch swing (23.2 to 33.0) and first-pitch strike (53.6 to 61.9)
percentages are up from 2022.

BATTED BALL STATS: His groundball percentage is up to 38.1 from 25.5 while his fl y ball
percentage is down to 30.2 from 44.7.

THIRD TIME THROUGH: In his third time thru the lineup, is limiting batters to a .218 average (22-for-101) with 9 walks and 13 strikeouts.

INNING INFO: In innings 6-8, owns a 1.32 ERA (2 ER in 13.2 IP) with a .125 opponent average (6-for-48) and 11 strikeouts.
0-2, GOT YOU: Opponents are 6-for-47 (.128) with 18 strikeouts on an 0-2 count.

UNFAMILIAR FACES: Has faced 15 opponents for the first time this season: Marlins, Royals, Rockies, Nationals, Giants, Athletics, Phillies, Braves, Tigers, Brewers, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and Cardinals and Twins.