MLB Preview: San Diego Padres (37-44) at Cincinnati Reds (43-38)

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Cincinnati Reds logo

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Padres lose their 5th straight game, get swept by Pirates in Pittsburgh

  • Starter Joe Musgrove went 6.0 innings with 2 runs allowed on 7 hits with 6 punchouts and 1 walk allowed…he didn’t receive a decision in his 4th consecutive quality start.
  • In the 3rd inning, Trent Grisham hit a 2-run home runs (his 7th this year), and Ha-Seong Kim also homered later in the game for his 4th home run in his last 7 games…Kim also doubled for San Diego’s lone multi-hit effort.
  • The game was delayed by 45 minutes due to the poor air quality index from the wildfires in Canada.

1-run losses

  • San Diego lost their 14th 1-run game yesterday afternoon in Pittsburgh, and their 5-14 record (.263) in 1-run contests is the worst record in such games of any team this year. Padres starters lead the National League in quality outings (37)
  • The Padres lead all National League teams in quality starts this year (37), and they rank 6th in the Majors in QS…with Joe Musgrove going 6.0 innings with 2 runs allowed, it marked the Padres’ 2nd straight quality outing by a starter (Padres lost both games).

Halfway point

  • The Padres played their 81st game yesterday, the halfway point for the 2023 regular season…at the 81- game mark last year, the Padres were 47-34 (.580)…their current 37-44 (.457) record is the the Padres’ worst at the half-way point since 2018 (35-46, .432).
  • The Padres have are 10.5 games back from the 1st place D-Backs in the NL West, and they are 8.0 games in the National League Wild Card race.
  • The Padres have dropped 5 straight contest and 8 of their last 10 games…the 5-game skid ties for their longest losing streak this year with their 5 straight losses from May 10-14.
  • The Padres have yet to have a winning streak of longer than 3 games so far, and they have yet to sweep a team in a series longer than 2 games…San Diego hasn’t been at .500 since May 11 (19-19), a span of 41 games without being at .500.

Manny & Juan in Padres wins vs. Padres losses

  • Manny Machado has hit .325 in Padres wins this year and .181 in Padres losses…similarly, Juan Soto has hit .352 in Padres’ wins and .196 in their
    losses.
  • As a team, they’ve hit .285 in their wins and just .187 in their losses…San Diego’s .187 clip in losses are the 3rd lowest in baseball behind the Pirates’
    .184 AVG and Tigers’ .182.

San Diego fielders have fewest errors in baseball (29)

  • The Padres have committed just 29 errors this year, the fewest of any team in baseball…their 22 outs above average lead all of baseball (next most are the Brewers’ 18 OAA)…their 18 defensive runs saved also lead the Majors… Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 6 OAA lead all MLB right fielders, and Ha-Seong Kim’s 9 OAA lead the team and rank T-1st among all ML 2nd basemen with MIL’s Owen Miller

STARTER – SETH LUGO 67

Lugo set for 2nd start of season, 3rd of his career, vs. CIN
33-year-old Seth Lugo takes the mound for his 16th career app and 3rd career start vs. CIN tonight to kick off this 3-game set… he has a 1.16 ERA (3 ER, 23.1 IP) in his 15 career outings vs. CIN, his lowest ERA against any club he’s made at least 3 app against…his first career app vs. CIN came on Sept. 8, 2017 and he tossed 6.0 innings of 4-hit ball…he then posted 9 scoreless relief outings from 2018-22 with a 1.93 ERA before posting 1 of his 5 quality outings this season vs. CIN on May 3.

Lugo tagged with loss in 39th app vs. WSH, his most outings against any club
Lugo snapped a streak of 13 consecutive relief outings vs. WSH with his most recent start vs. the Nats this past Sun, June 25…he fell to 3-4 in ’23, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits in SD’s 8-3 defeat.

Returns from IL with 5.0 innings of 1-run ball Tues. vs SF
Lugo was placed on the 15-day IL on May 18 after straining his right calf attempting to cover first base in his 8th start of the season on May 16 vs. KC…reinstated Tues, June 20 and did not factor into SD’s 4-3 defeat @ SF, allowing 1 run on 3 hits across 5.0 innings.

Pitch counts
Among all qualifying pitchers from Opening Day through May 3, which were 6 starts for Lugo, his 98.3 pitches per game were T-5th most in the Majors with Zack Wheeler…in his 4 outings since May 10 @ MIN, he’s averaged 69 pitches thrown.

Land vs. Air
Lugo’s 22.9% fly ball rate is the 2nd-lowest of his career (behind only 2020’s 19.8 FB%)…his 45.9% groundball rate is 3rd-highest (50.5 GB% in ’20 and 47.3% in ’18).

Walk percentage
Lugo has walked 2-or-fewer in 9 of his 10 starts this season, including 3 starts (4/2 vs. COL, 4/27 @ CHC & 6/25 vs. WSH) with 0 free passes…he ranks in the 89th percentile in BB% and his 5.5 BB% is the 2nd-lowest in his career, trailing only 2019 (5.1%).

Filthy with the curve
Just like in 2022, Lugo again ranks in the 99th percentile in curveball spin rate, averaging 3,234 rpm, but opponents are hitting .303 against it compared to the .159 clip against it last season…he is averaging 61.7 inches of vertical drop on his curve – which is the 5th-highest vertical drop – and an average of 7.8 inches and 14% more drop – of all ML curveballs.

CINCINNATI REDS NOTES:

TONIGHT’S GAME

  • Is Game 1 of the Reds’ last home series of the first half.
  • The starting time for tonight’s game was changed from 7:10 p.m. to help alleviate the congestion anticipated from the crowd of approximately 100,000 expected to attend events on The Banks, including a sold-out concert by superstar entertainer Taylor Swift.
  • Following this weekend series vs Bryan Price’s Padres, the Reds head into the All-Star Game break with a 7-game road trip to Wsh (4g) and Mil (3g).
  • The Reds are coming off a brief 2-1 road trip and series win at Bal’s Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
  • Mon’s 10-3 loss to the Orioles snapped the Reds’ 8-game road winning streak, tied for the second-longest streak in the Major Leagues this season.

SERIES NOTES

  • The Padres won 8 of the last 9 games, including all 6 games in 2022, and 14 of the last 16 games overall.
  • The Reds’ 10-inning, 2-1 win on 5/2 at SD snapped their 7-game losing streak vs the Padres…was the Reds’ first win vs SD since their final meeting of the 2021 season, a 5-4 win on 7/1 at GABP.
  • On their most recent homestand, the Reds went 4-2 vs the Rockies (3-0) and first-place Braves (1-2)…Sat’s 7-6 loss vs Atl snapped the Reds’ historic 12-game winning streak…the Braves won 2 of 3 games last weekend to snap the Reds’ 5-series winning streak.
  • The attendance for last weekend’s 3-game weekend series vs the Braves was 126,724, the highest for any 3-game series during the regular season at Great American Ball Park.

HALFWAY HOME

  • Through Wed night’s 10-inning win at Bal, the Reds were in first place through 81 games for the first time since 2010 (46-35, +1.5g)…yesterday, when the Reds were off, the Brewers pulled into a tie with a win vs NYM.
  • The Reds’ 43-38 record is their best through 81 games since 2014, when they also began 43-38.
  • Last season, the Reds were 28-53 after 81 games.

RUNNING MEN

  • The Reds rank second in the Major Leagues with 92 stolen bases (TB 99), their highest total since 2017 (120sb)…recorded 58 stolen bases all of 2022.
  • Have been successful on 52 of their last 57 attempts.
  • 3 times this season recorded at least 5 stolen bases in a game (6sb on 6/2 vs Mil, 9sb on 6/3 vs Mil, 5sb on Wed at Bal)…prior to 6/2, the Reds hadn’t recorded 5 stolen bases in a game since 4/10/17 at Pit.
  • Their 9 stolen bases on 6/3 vs Mil (Jake Fraley 3, Spencer Steer 2, Jonathan India 2, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild) was their highest single-game total since 5/30/1976 vs LAD (9sb)…the Reds’ single-game record since 1900 for stolen bases in a game remains 10 (5/29/1913 at StL).

NATIONALS UP NEXT

  • The Reds are 7-14 in their last 21 games at Nationals Park but are 4-2 there the last 2 seasons.
  • In their last four 4-game series vs the Nationals, the Reds went 1-3 (2022), 3-1 (2021), 1-3 (2018) and 0-4 (2017).
  • Dating back to a 6-3 Reds win on 6/4/16, the Nationals have won 14 of the last 20 games at Great American Ball Park, but the Reds won 4 of the last 7 games there.

BIG ROAD MACHINE

  • The Reds went 10-2 on their previous 2 road trips (8-1, 2-1).
  • Went 8-1 on their road trip to StL (2-1), KC (3-0) and Hou (3-0)…for only the second time, won 8 games on a road trip of 9 games or fewer (8-0, 9/21-9/27, 1964)…was their first road trip of any length with at least 8 wins since 5/28-6/9, 1999 (9-3)…courtesy @EliasSports.
  • The Reds have won 6 straight road series (3-0 at Cubs, 2-1 at Bos, 2-1 at StL, 3-0 at KC, 3-0 at Hou, 2-1 at Bal) for the first time since 7/23-8/22, 2010 (2-1 at Hou, 2-1 at Mil, 2-1 at Pit, 3-0 at Chc, 3-0 at Ari, 2-1 at LAD)… haven’t won more than 6 consecutive road series since an 8-game road series winning streak from 6/25-8/12, 1976.

NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE WEEK

  • IF Elly De La Cruz is the reigning Player of the Week (6/19-6/25)…ranked among the National League leaders in extra-base hits (6, T1st), total bases (22, T3rd), hitting (.440, 3rd), slugging percentage (.880, 3rd), OPS (1.342, 3rd), hits (11, T3rd) and on-base percentage (.462, 5th)… in last Fri’s 11-10 win vs Atl became the seventh batter in Reds history to hit for the cycle, the first since Eric Davis did it on 6/2/89 vs SD…also last Friday became the first player since 1900 to produce in his first 15 career apps at least 20 hits (22), 5 stolen bases (7) and 3 home runs (3)…courtesy @EliasSports.

RED HOTS

  • The Reds’ 12-game winning streak, snapped by Sat’s 7-6 loss vs Atl, tied their modern club record (5/16-5/27, 1939 & 4/30-5/12, 1957).
  • The Reds are the first team in Major League history to move into first place alone in 9 games or fewer after falling 5 or more games under .500 while facing a deficit of at least 5 games…on 6/9 were 29-35 and trailed the first-place Pirates by 5.0 games…beginning 6/10 won 9 straight games to move into first place alone on 6/19…courtesy @OptaSTATS and @EliasSports.
  • Reds baserunners in 67 attempts have scored 66 runs from second base on singles…both lead the Major Leagues.

Tonight’s Pitcher – #51 Graham Ashcraft, RHP

  • Tonight is making his second career appearance and start vs the Padres, his second this season.
  • In Sat’s 7-6 loss vs Atl came off the 15-day injured list to make his first appearance since 6/8 vs LAD, when he was hit on the left calf on a comebacker.
  • In his first 6 starts through 5/2 went 2-0, 2.00 (36ip, 8er, .202baa)…in his last 8 starts beginning 5/7 went 1-6, 12.82 (33ip, 47er, .386baa).
  • Became the first Reds pitcher to begin a season with 6 starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs in any of those starts since Luis Castillo began the 2019 campaign by allowing 2 ER or fewer in each of his first 7 starts.
  • In his first 3 starts (19ip, 3er) became the eighth Reds pitcher, since 1901 and including Nick Lodolo in 2023, to begin a season with at least 17.0 innings while allowing 4 earned runs or fewer.
  • Between a solo HR by Pit’s Bryan Reynolds in his season debut and a 2-run HR by WSox’ Hanser Alberto’s on 5/7 in his seventh start, Ashcraft recorded a career-high homerless streak of 33.0 innings.
  • In the 17-4 loss on 5/7 vs WSox allowed a career-high 8 runs in 1.2 innings…was the shortest start of his career and the shortest start by a Reds pitcher to that point in the season…was charged with all 8 runs in the second inning after throwing a perfect first…entered that 5/7 start leading all National League pitchers in bWAR (2.1), the third-best bWAR among all players in the Major Leagues (Gerrit Cole 2.5, Ronald Acuña Jr. 2.2).