MLB Preview: San Diego Padres (37-43) at Pittsburgh Pirates (37-42)

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SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Padres spoil Blake Snell’s quality start, drop series to Pirates & their 4th straight game

  • Starter Blake Snell tied his career-long streak with his 6th straight quality start, going 6.0 innings with 2 runs allowed… he punched out 10 Pirates, and in doing so, set a careerlong streak with his 4th straight outing with double-digit strikeouts (and also tied a Padres record, set by Jake Peavy’s 4 consecutive outings in 2007 with 10+ K’s)…since May 31st, Snell has the 2nd lowest ERA of any pitcher at 0.73 (behind MIA Eury Perez’s 0.32), and his 60 strikeouts are the most in the Majors in that time.
  • Xander Bogaerts was the lone Padre with a multi-hit effort last night, going 2-for-4, and Trent Grisham’s double was their only extra-base hit of the game…San Diego batters went 2-for7 with RISP and left 9 runners stranded.

Joe Musgrove returns to Pittsburgh

  • This trip marks Joe Musgrove’s 3rd time going up against his former team since becoming a Padre (last was on May 1, 2022)…on Monday’s off day, Joe invited players and staff on to visit the Roberto Clemente Museum with him (had a group of 25-30 players & staff go).
  • Musgroves aims to tie his career high with his 4th consecutive wins today (also: April 14-May 1, 2022)…enters today’s start having earned the win in 3 straight for the 3rd time in his career, and in his last 3 outings, he has a 2.84 ERA (6 ER, 19.0 IP) with 13 strikeouts against 2 walks.

Halfway home

  • The Padres play their 81st game today, the halfway point for the 2023 regular season…at the 80-game mark last year, the Padres were 46-34 (.575)…the Padres have are 10.5 games back from the 1st place D-Backs in the NL West, and they are 7.5 games in the National League Wild Card race.
  • There have been 6 teams in MLB history to have made the playoffs with 37 or fewer wins in the 1st 80 decisions to start a season (excluding 2020): the 1914 Braves, 1973 Mets, 1974 Pirates, 1981 Royals (strike year), 1989 Blue Jays, and 2013 Dodgers (Elias)…and now with 12 teams making the playoffs, it will likely happen more often.

Up Next: 3 games in Cincinnati before heading home

  • The Padres will fly to Cincinnati postgame today for a 3-game series this weekend…when they return home on Monday, July 3, they’ll host their penultimate series before the All-Star break…they’ll enjoy an off day on Thursday, July 6, before hosting the Mets over the weekend for a 3-game set.

STARTER – JOE MUSGROVE #44
Musgrove looks to make it 4 wins in a row
The former Pirate aims to tie his career high with 4 consecutive wins today vs. PIT (also: April 14-May 1, 2022)…enters today’s tilt having earned the win in 3 straight for the 3rd time in his career…he was quality in both of his 2 outings vs. PIT last season, going a combined 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA. 0 walks, 0 HR fuel Musgrove to 1st career win vs. WSH Musgrove earned his 1st career winning decision vs. the Nationals in his 6th try vs. the Nats last Fri @ Petco Park…he posted his 24th career start with 0 home runs and 0 walks in the same start, and when he does so, he has posted 16 quality outings and is 13-3 (.813 winning %) with his teams going 17-7.

Since May 26
Musgrove is quality in 5 of his last 6 starts since May 26 @ NYY, going 5-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .239 AVG against…among all qualifying pitchers since May 26, he ranks 1st in run support average (9.17), T-1st in wins (5), 4th in HR/9 IP ratio (0.25) and 10th in ERA.

Petco Park’s finest
He’s made 34 road app. (33 starts) since joining SD compared to his 35 home app (all starts)…on the road, he is 15-9 with a 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .223 AVG…he is 1 of 8 pitchers who have made at least 40 career starts in Petco history (including Postseason), and Joe ranks 3rd in ERA (2.90), trailing only Andrew Cashner (2.76) and Jake Peavy (2.80)…his 1.13 WHIP ranks T-3rd with Chris Young, trailing only Yu Darvish (0.96) and Peavy (1.09)…his .227 opp. AVG ranks 5th.

Breaking bad
Yu Darvish (2,758 rpm) and Joe Musgrove (2,722 rpm) have the 3rd and 4th-highest spin rates on breaking balls, respectively, among all NL pitchers since the start of last season (min. 1,250 pitches)…they trail only Charlie Morton (3,074 rpm) and Corbin Burnes (2,773).

Musgrove’s chase rate, avg exit velocity and hard hit% among best in Majors
Joe’s 37.3 chase % this season is a career high and ranks in the 98th percentile…it’s the highest chase rate among all NL hurlers (min. 250 PA), and trails only MIN’s Joe Ryan (37.4%)…his 86.1 mph avg exit velocity trails only his 85.1 mph in the shortened 2020 season ranks in the 92nd percentile and trails only Justin Steele (85.1), Corbin Burnes (85.8) and Shohei Ohtani (85.6) – min. 250 PA…his 29.5 hard hit% is a career best mark, ranks in the 92nd percentile and is the best percentage in the Majors – min. 250 PA.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

THE PIRATES: Have won back-to-back games for the first time since winning six straight games from May 30 to June 5…Are 3-2 in their last five games following their season-high 10-game losing streak from 6/13-22…Have had four separate winning streaks of at least four games this season, including a season-high seven-game winning streak from 4/17-23.

FEELING THE DRAFT: Last night Jared Triolo became the ninth player to make his big league debut this season with the Pirates…On June 16, Carmen Mlodzinski became Pittsburgh’s first player from the 2020 draft to make this debut…2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis followed with his debut on June 19…2020 first-rounder Nick Gonzales (taken seventh overall in the draft) made his debut on June 23, followed by Triolo last night, who was selected in the Comp B round of the 2019 draft.

BUILDING THE BUCS: Entering the 2023 season, 20 of Pittsburgh’s top 30 prospects according to MLB Pipeline were acquired by Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington… In addition, seven of the organization’s top 10 prospects have been acquired since Cherington was named Pittsburgh’s General Manager on November 18, 2019 (the only three who weren’t were Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz and Mike Burrows)…Of those 30 prospects, 17 were selected in the draft, seven were signed as non-drafted free agents and six were acquired via trade.

ROOKIE ROLLING: Henry Davis brings a six-game hitting streak into today while also reaching base safely in eight of his first nine big league games…Prior to Davis, the last Pirate to reach base safely in eight of his first nine career games was Ke’Bryan Hayes from September 1-12, 2020…Since making his MLB debut on June 19, Davis’ 10 hits are tied for the third-most among all MLB rookies behind Elly De La Cruz (13) and Minnesota’s Royce Lewis (12).

CHECKING THE BROOM CLOSET: This afternoon the Pirates will go for their fifth sweep of the season and first since taking three straight games against the Cardinals earlier this month from June 2-4 here at PNC Park…Pittsburgh will also look to sweep the Padres at PNC Park for the first time since a three-game series from June 21-23, 2019.

MAKE THE SWITCH: Carlos Santana comes into today one home run shy of tying Bernie Williams and Bobby Bonilla for the 10th-most career home runs all-time among switch hitters (287)…Santana has also gone deep in back-to-back games for the second time this season…Prior to his back-to-back bombs Tuesday and last night, Santana also homered in back-to-back games on April 5 and April 7.

ABOUT TODAY’S STARTER: Luis Ortiz takes the mound this afternoon in his ninth start of the season…Ortiz worked a career-high 8.0 innings, allowed just one run, and won a 3-1 decision in his last start Friday night at Miami…Ortiz has allowed a total of two runs in 12.2 innings in his last two starts and has posted a 3.24 ERA (25.0ip/9er) in five appearances (four starts) this month.

OFF TO A GOOD START: Pittsburgh’s starting pitching staff has posted a 2.27 ERA (39.2ip/10er) in the last six games…Pittsburgh’s starting rotation is also tied for third among all National League teams in wins (28)…Pittsburgh’s starting rotation won a Major League-low 21 games during the 2022 season.

ON-BASE MACHINE: Andrew McCutchen has a season-high 17-game on-base streak coming into today (tied with Jack Suwinski for the longest by a Pirate this season)…Since McCutchen’s streak began on June 5, his .467 on-base percentage ranks third in all of MLB behind Shohei Ohtani (.500) and Ketel Marte (.477)…The last Pirate to have an on-base streak more than 17 games was Ke’Bryan Hayes in 2021 (21 games).

STARTING PITCHER – 48 – RHP LUIS ORTIZ
LUIS ORTIZ: The 24-year-old righthander will be making his 10th appearance (ninth start) of the season this afternoon…He allowed one run in a career-high 8.0 innings while winning a 3-1 last at-bat win in his last start Friday at Miami…He earned his first big league win in his start on 5/22 vs. Texas after allowing two runs in 7.2 innings of work.

vs. SAN DIEGO: Is making his first career appearance against the Padres today.