Monday, December 23, 2024
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MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (54-67) at Minnesota Twins (63-59)

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

THE PIRATES:….had the day off yesterday in Minneapolis…Lost 8-3 in the deciding game of their three-game series against the Mets Wednesday afternoon at Citi Field…Have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games on the road…Have gone 13-13 in their last 26 games since losing each of their first five games following the All-Star break…Have lost back-to-back series after going 2-0-3 in their previous five.

ROSTER MOVES: Ji Hwan Bae ended his rehab assignment with Indianapolis and has been activated from the 10-day injured list (left ankle sprain)…Infielder Jared Triolo has been optioned to Triple-A to make room for Bae on the 26-man active roster…Bae went 11-for-32 (.344) with three doubles, one home run, one RBI and two stolen bases in nine games on his rehab assignment with Indianapolis…In addition, right-handed pitcher Dauri Moreta (low back inflammation) will begin a rehab assignment tonight with Indianapolis.

BRYAN’S BOMBS: Bryan Reynolds has gone deep three times in his last four games and nine times in his last 23 games dating back to July 23…Since July 23, Reynolds’ Nine home runs are the third-most in MLB behind Matt Olson and Pete Alonso with 11 apiece….Reynolds also ranks tied for fourth in MLB since July 23 with 59 total bases…The only players with more total bases in that time are Julio Rodriguez (67), Bobby Witt Jr. (67) and Matt Olson (64).

KE’S TO THE GAME: Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded a hit leading off the game in each of his last three games in that spot of the lineup, singling on both Tuesday and Wednesday along with August 13 in game one of Sunday’s doubleheader…Hayes has hit safely in each of his last eight starts, going 15-for-35 (.429) with three doubles, a triple, three home runs and 11 RBI…He is also hitting at a .348 clip (16-for-46) this season in the first inning.

BUILDING THE BUCCOS: The Pirates come into today with the No. 2 ranked farm system according to MLB Pipeline’s latest rankings that were announced on Tuesday…Pittsburgh is tied with Baltimore for the most top 100 prospects (six) in MLB Pipeline’s recent rankings… Pittsburgh was rated by MLB Pipeline with the No. 8 farm system coming into 2023 while ranking seventh in the outlet’s 2022 mid-season rankings.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION: Wednesday afternoon Endy Rodríguez threw out New York’s Pete Alonso trying to steal second base… Since recording his first caught stealing on July 24, Rodríguez is tied for second among all backstops in MLB with five caught stealings (four catchers caught stealing/one pitcher caught stealing) along with Yasmani Grandal…The only catcher with more in that time is Patrick Bailey (six)…Special thanks to the Elias Sports Bureau.

LOVE FOR LIOVER:Since July 23 Liover Peguero has knocked in 14 runs, which is tied for the most among all National League rookies along with Milwaukee’s Sal Frelick…Since making his season debut on July 17, Peguero is tied for fifth among National League rookies in RBI (14), tied for second in slugging (.500), fourth in OPS (.807) and tied for third in home runs (five).

ABOUT TONIGHT’S STARTER: Andre Jackson will make the second start of his big league career tonight in the opener of this weekend series against the Twins…Jackson allowed three runs on five hits in 3.2 innings in the first start of his big league career in game two of Sunday’s doubleheader against the Reds.

SETTING UP THE SERIES: Pittsburgh has gone 4-5 at Target Field since the ballpark opened in 2010…The Pirates won their last series in Minnesota after taking two of three games from April 23-25, 2021…This is the fourth series Derek Shelton has faced the Twins since being named manager of the Pirates on November 27, 2019…Prior to joining the Pirates, Shelton spent two seasons serving as the bench coach for the Twins under 2019 Manager-of-the-Year Rocco Baldelli and Hall-of-Famer Paul Molitor in 2018.

ANDREW ON THE BASES: Andrew McCutchen enters today with a 19-game on-base streak… That’s the second-longest active on-base streak among all National League players (Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies has the longest active streak at 23 games)…Since the streak began on July 22, McCutchen’s 19 walks are the fourth-most in MLB behind Kyle Schwarber (26), Matt Olson (21) and Aaron Judge (20)…McCutchen has the team’s longest on-base streak of 2023, reaching base safely in 20 straight from June 5 to July 1.

STARTING PTICHER – 41 – RHP ANDRE JACKSON
ANDRE JACKSON: The 27-year-old righthander will make his fourth appearance (second start) with the Pirates after being promoted from Triple-A Indianapolis on 8/4…He was acquired by the Pirates from the Los Angeles Dodgers on 6/25 for cash considerations.

VS. MINNESOTA: Has never faced the Twins.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Began their five-game, six-day homestand with a 1-1 series split against Detroit earlier this week, winning on Tuesday night, followed by a loss on Wednesday afternoon… tonight, they will continue the homestand with the first of three against the Pirates…after Sunday afternoon’s series finale with Pittsburgh, the Twins will travel to Milwaukee for a two-game, three-day road-trip and play the Brewers for two games on Tuesday and Wednesday…the Twins have gone
34-25 at home and 29-34 on the road…10 of the final 12 August games will be at Target Field. The Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 home games and 13-6 in their last 19 here.

TWINS COME UP SHORT ON TIGERS: The Twins lost to the Tigers on Wednesday afternoon at Target Field by a score of 8-7…Minnesota jumped out to a four-run lead, allowed seven runs in the middle innings, then scored three in the bottom of the ninth to fall short…Kenta Maeda was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing three runs on seven hits in 4.0 innings pitched, with one walk and six strikeouts…Griffin Jax (5-7) was issued the loss, allowing four runs on three hits (2 home runs) in the seventh inning…the offense recorded 13 hits, including four from Edouard Julien and three from Royce Lewis…Jorge Polanco (8) and Max Kepler (20) each added home runs as Polanco drove in a season-high-tying three runs.

TWINS AND BUCS: The Twins are 23-16 all-time against the Pirates, going 2-4 at Three Rivers Stadium, 8-4 at the Metrodome, 8-4 at PNC Park and 5-4 at Target Field…the Twins have won seven of their last 10 games vs. Pittsburgh, dating back to April of 2018.

These two last played in a three-game series at Target Field from April 23-25, 2021 as the Twins won game one and lost games two and three.

Pirates manager Derek Shelton served as the Bench Coach for two seasons in Minnesota, spending 2018 under Paul Molitor and 2019 under Rocco Baldelli…Shelty managed two games for the Twins on July 28 and 29, 2018, losing both as Molitor traveled to Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony…Shelty was Rocco’s hitting coach in Tampa Bay in 2010 and they were both on Tampa’s coaching staff together from 2015-16.

Donovan Solano is hitting .313 (20-for-64) with eight RBI in 27 career games vs. Pittsburgh.

Max Kepler is hitting .321 (9-for-28) with one home run, seven RBI, six walks, a .429 on-base percentage, a .536 slugging percentage and a .964 OPS in eight career games vs. the Bucs.

NATIONAL ATTENTION: The Twins have gone 17-15 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 at Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee, 0-3 at Atlanta, 2-1 at St. Louis, 3-0 vs. Arizona and 2-1 at Philadelphia…the Twins have gone 6-1 in their last seven in IL Play and 10-5 in their last 15…their 17 wins are their most in IL Play for a single season (16 in 2006).

Max Kepler has six home runs against NL opponents this season…he has 21 career IL home runs, tied with Justin Morneau for fourth most in club history, trailing Torii Hunter (33), Eddie Rosario (23) and Joe Mauer (22)…six homers are tied for sixth most in club history for a single season, the record-holders being Mitch Garver (2019) and Trevor Plouffe (2012), each with nine.

Joey Gallo’s eight IL homers are third-most in club history (see above)…they are tied for ninth most among all AL players this season — Rafael Devers is the leader with 13.

LIFE OF PABLO: Pablo López enters today third in baseball in strikeouts with 180 (career high), trailing Spencer Strider (217) and Kevin Gausman (187)…he is on pace to strike out 239 batters, which would land him fifth on the Twins’ single-season all-time list: Johan Santana — 265 in 2004, Bert Blyleven — 258 in 1973, Blyleven — 249 in 1974, Santana — 245 in 2006… the last Twin with 200+ Ks was José Berríos with 202 in 2018.

STARTERS ON STRIKE: Twins starters have struck out an MLB-best 751 batters and are on pace to strike out 997 hitters this season, which would shatter the club record of 870, done in 1967…in fact, 997 would land them eighth on baseball’s all-time list, behind the 2018 Astros (1,101), 2017 Guardians (1,066), 2018 Guardians (1,066), 2019 Astros (1,063), 2017 Nationals (1,012), 2019 Nationals (1,010) and 2017 Red Sox (1,001). A751 strikeouts rank sixth most in club history…next is the 2018 staff that had 760 (right).

Minnesota starters lead baseball with a 4.32 strikeouts-to-walk ratio and is the fourth best in baseball history, trailing the 2019 Dodgers (4.55), 2018 Guardians (4.37) and 2021 Dodgers (4.36)…the staff as a whole trails Seattle by 0.005 for MLB lead in K/BB radio at 3.53…the last time the Twins led baseball in K/BB over a full season was 2007.

THE STREAK CCONTINUES: Carlos Correa has hit safely in a season-high nine-straight games, his longest since September 20, 2019-July 31, 2020 (also 9)…it is tied for the third-longest active streak in baseball…his career high is 16, done in 2019 with Houston…a hit today would make him the third Twins with a double-digit hit streak this season (Jeffers — 14 and Solano — 11).

During the current streak, he is hitting .367 (11-for-30) with two doubles, three home runs, nine RBI and a 1.190 OPS.

ROOKIES THAT RAKE: Edouard Julien recorded a season-high four hits on Wednesday afternoon, passing his previous high of three, done five times…on the season, Julien ranks in the top five among MLB rookies in several offensive categories (minimum of 250 plate appearances):

AVG OBP OPS OPS+ wOBA RC/27
Yoshida – .300 Julien – .386 McLain – .877 Julien – 141.4 McLain – .388 McLain – 6.91
McLain – .298 Noda – .375 Julien – .873 McLain – 130.6 Julien – .379 Carroll – 6.58
Julien – .293 McLain – .363 Carroll – .855 Carroll – 130.1 Yoshida – .371 Outman – 6.41
M. Garcia – .285 Outman – .357 Casas – .845 Casas – 125.8 Carroll – .367 Julien – 5.89
Jung – .274 Casas – .357 Yoshida – .822 Noda – 125.3 Casas – .364 Bailey – .561

xSLG: Max Kepler hit his 20th home run of the season on Wednesday afternoon, tying Joey Gallo for team lead…it’s the second most of Kepler’s career for a single season, matching his 2018 total and 16 short of his career high of 36, done in 2019…in his last 27 games, since July 17, Kepler is hitting .305 (29-for-95) with seven doubles, eight home runs, 17 RBI, 22 runs scored, seven walks, a .356 on-base percentage, a .632 slugging percentage and a .987 OPS.

Kepler has an expected slugging percentage of .510 (.471 SLG) which leads the team and ranks 16th in the AL (MLB’s 90th percentile)… his xSLG is a career high, up 0.098 from last season (.412) and his highest since 2019 (.458).

JEFF YEA: Since the All-Star break, Ryan Jeffers is hitting .328 (22-for-67) with three doubles, five home runs, 14 RBI, 10 walks, a .430 on-base percentage, a .597 slugging percentage and a 1.027 OPS…he has raised his batting average 24 points since the break, going from .256 to .280…since the break, he ranks ninth in the AL in OBP and 10th in OPS.

ROYCE OF SUMMER: After starting the season hitting .182 (6-for-33) with a .576 OPS in his first eight games, Royce Lewis has hit .420 (29-for-69) with a 1.003 OPS in his last 20 games, including six three-plus-hit games…he has three three-hit games in his last seven games overall…among all rookies in baseball with a minimum of 100 plate appearances, Royce ranks first in batting average (.343), and runs created-per-27 (8.68), third in OPS+ (140.3), and fourth in both OPS (.873) and wOBA (.380).

STARTING PITCHER – PABLO LóPEZ 49
2023: 8-6, 3.66 ERA CAREER: 36-37, 3.87 ERA

Making his 25th start and appearance and 11th home start of 2023…also his 119th career appearance (all starts) in his sixth major league season (Miami – 2018-22).

Facing Pittsburgh for the third time in his career; is 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12.0 IP, 4 ER) with five walks and seven strikeouts in two previous starts vs. the Pirates.

Acquired by the Twins from Miami on January 20, 2023, along with infielder Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio, in exchange for infielder/outfielder Luis Arraez.

TOP SHELF: Here are López’s 2023 numbers and how they rank among qualified American League starters:

STATISTIC LÓPEZ’s #s AL RANK
Strikeouts………………………………………………. 180 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
WAR……………………………………………………….. 3.9 ……………………………………………………………..3rd
FIP………………………………………………………… 3.18 …………………………………………………………….4th
Innings Pitched……………………………………… 147.2 ……………………………………………………………5th
Opponent Batting Average……………………….. .225 …………………………………………………………….5th

LAST TIME OUT: Earned his third-straight win, tossing 6.0 scoreless innings with four hits allowed, one walk and seven strikeouts in the Twins’ 8-1 victory over Philadelphia on August 12 at Citizens Bank Park…did not allow a hit until Nick Castellanos singled with two outs in the bottom of the fourth inning…yielded two singles in the fifth but stranded both runners…retired Castellanos and Bryson Stott to end his outing after Bryce Harper doubled with one out in the sixth inning…three Twins reliev- ers held the Phillies to one run and Minnesota tallied 11 hits to even the three-game series at 1-1.

Set new single-season career highs for quality starts (15) and strikeouts (180), surpassing his 2022 totals (14 QS, 174 K).

Won three-consecutive starts for the third time in his career (also, September 14-24, 2020 and April 15-27, 2022)…his three-game win streak is his longest of 2023 and is one shy of his career-high four-game win streak, done with Miami from July 11, 2021-April 27, 2022.

TWO STARTS AGO: Tied his single-season career high with his 14th quality start, earning the win on August 7 at Detroit in the Twins’ 9-3 victory at Comerica Park…pitched 7.0 scoreless innings with five hits allowed, no walks and eight strikeouts…received nine total runs of support, his most in any start this year…scattered five singles, allowing just one runner in scoring position in his 7.0 innings of work (Zach McKinstry, fifth inning)…retired 15 of the final 18 batters he faced…was relieved by Brent Headrick to begin the bottom of the eighth inning with Minnesota leading 9-0; Headrick pitched the final 2.0 innings (3 H, 3 R) and the Twins cruised to a win in the four-game series opener.

Won in back-to-back starts for the second time this season, also doing so on June 30 at Baltimore and July 5 vs. Kansas City.

Marked his ninth career start of 7.0-or-more scoreless innings, recording his second such start of 2023 (CGSO on July 5 vs. Kansas City).

AHOY!: Facing the Pirates for the third time in his career tonight…is 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12.0 IP, 4 ER) with five walks and seven strikeouts in two previous starts against Pittsburgh…last faced the Pirates on July 13, 2022 with Miami, taking a no-decision in the Marlins’ 5-4 victory at loanDepot Park; pitched 5.0 innings and allowed one run on one hit, with four walks and three strikeouts…both of his two career starts against Pittsburgh were home outings.

Is 2-1, 3.60 ERA (40.0 IP, 16 ER) with nine walks and 47 strikeouts in seven Interleague starts this season; Twins have won in each of his last three Interleague outings.

In two starts vs. National League Central opponents in 2023, he is 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12.0 IP, 4 ER) with one walk and 14 strikeouts…took a no-decision in the Twins’ 7-5 win on June 13 vs. Milwaukee and earned the win in Minnesota’s 3-2 victory on August 1 at St. Louis…is 6-7, 3.27 ERA (121.0 IP, 44 ER) with 26 walks and 123 strikeouts in 20 career starts vs. the NL Central.

TARGET ACQUIRED: Making his first home start since July 25 vs. Seattle…in 10 home starts this season, López is 3-2, 4.71 ERA (63.0 IP, 33 ER) with 17 walks and 80 strikeouts…Twins are 7-3 in his 10 starts at Target Field in 2023…here are his numbers in his last four home starts compared to his first six:

STATISTIC LAST 4 HOME GS FIRST 6 HOME GS
ERA ………………………………………………………. 2.93 …………………………………………………………. 6.11
WHIP……………………………………………………… 0.90 …………………………………………………………. 1.30
Opponent Batting Average……………………….. .196 …………………………………………………………. .256
Walks-per-9.0 Innings……………………………… 1.63 …………………………………………………………. 3.06

In 60 career home starts, he is 17-17, 3.68 ERA (347.0 IP, 142 ER) with 96 walks and 348 strikeouts…is 19-20, 4.08 ERA (310.2 IP, 141 ER) with 83 walks and 321 strikeouts in 58 career road starts.

RIGHT ON: López has limited right-handed hitters to a .204 (58-for-284) batting average this season, with righties going 2-for-9 with two strikeouts against him in his last start on August 12 at Philadelphia…his 104 strikeouts against righties are tied for sixth most in the American League this year…his .204 opponent batting average vs. righties this season ranks sixth in the AL (min. 20 GS)…left-handed hitters are batting .246 (66-for-268) against him in 2023, going 2-for-13 with five strikeouts against him in his last outing.

Has better career numbers against righties (.647 OPS) than lefties (.735 OPS).

PITCH BREAKDOWN: Has used a five-pitch mix in 2023, per Baseball Savant…has primarily used his sweeper and sinker against right-handed hitters, favoring his changeup and curveball against left-handed hitters…opposing hitters went just 1-for-9 (.111) with five strikeouts against his fastball in his last start on August 12 at Philadelphia…here is a look at his 2023 arsenal:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (94.9)………….35.5% (814 pitches, 372/442)……. .224 (39-for-174), 9 2B, 7 HR, 69 K Sweeper (84.3)…………………….. 20.8% (477 pitches, 350/127).. .189 (21-for-111), 3 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 40 K Changeup (88.3)…………………..20.6% (471 pitches, 171/300).. .222 (30-for-135), 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 34 K Curveball (82.4)……………………. 12.9% (296 pitches, 69/227) … .233 (17-for-73), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 33 K Sinker (94.4) ………………………….10.1% (232 pitches, 227/5)……. .293 (17-for-58), 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 K

In his first 24 starts this year, López has an average fastball velocity of 94.8 mph, a 2.1 mph increase from last season and the largest year-to-year jump of his career.

STRIKEOUT SAVANT: Ranks second in the American League with 180 strikeouts this year (TOR’s Kevin Gausman – 187)…owns a 10.97 strikeouts-per-9.0-innings ratio in 2023, the highest in Twins history (1961-) among qualified pitchers…is on pace to strike out 239 batters; would be the fifth-highest single-season total in Twins history, trailing only two Johan Santana seasons (265 – 2004, 245 – 2006) and two Bert Blyleven seasons (258 – 1973, 249 – 1974).

QUALITY ASSURED: Has recorded a quality start in seven of his last nine outings and has posted 15 quality starts this season, the most on the Twins’ staff and tied for the fourth most in the American League with HOU’s Framber Valdez and TOR’s Chris Bassitt…his 15 quality starts are the most by a Twin since José Berríos had 21 in 2019…surpassed his single-season career high of 14, done last season with Miami (32 total starts), with a quality start in his last outing on August 12 at Philadelphia.

CUTTING TO THE CHASE: López has a career-high 34.9 chase percentage in 2023, placing him in the 95th percentile in baseball, according to Baseball Savant…his chase rate ranks first on the Twins staff and 18th in the majors…also has a career-high 51.8 percent swing rate and 29.9 percent whiff rate in 2023.

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