Monday, December 23, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (43-56) at San Diego Padres (48-52)

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

No team release available.

SAN DIEGO PADRES NOTES:

Friars fall to Tigers in series finale

  • Yesterday in Detroit, the Padres failed to complete the series sweep with their 3-1 defeat…Joe Musgrove posted a quality start (6.0 IP with 3 ER), but he was saddled with the loss (now 9-3)…he allowed 1 walk and 7 hits with 6 SO.
  • The Padres were held homerless, and the lone run scored was an RBI single in the 7th from Gary Sanchez. Friars go 5-5 on roadtrip, won 1st 2 games in back-to-back series but fail to complete sweeps
  • The Padres won each of their last 2 road series, but after winning consecutive games to start their series @ Toronto and @ Detroit, they failed to complete the sweeps…the Friars have still yet to sweep a their 1st team on the road this season (their sole sweep in a series of at least 3 games was from July 3-5 vs. the Angels in San Diego).

Padres pitchers homers allowed

  • The San Diego pitching staff has allowed 110 home runs this season, the 12th fewest in MLB…nearly 2 of every 3 home runs allowed by the Friars have been solo home runs, the highest opponent solo home run rate in the Majors at 66.4% (73 solo homers).
  • Padres pitchers have allowed 37 homers this year with 1, 2, or 3 runners on, which are the 2nd fewest homers allowed with runners on base, more than just the Guardians’ 34. 1-2 run games
  • The Padres are 5-5 against the Pirates since 2019, with 9 of those decided by 2 runs or fewer… the Padres have an NL-worst record of 18-30 (.375) this season in games decided by 1 or 2 runs (Sportstrader) and a Major League-worst 6-16 (.273) record in 1-run games.

Padres host Pirates & Rangers for 9th homestand of 2023

  • The Padres return home from their 8th road trip of the 2023 season to start their 9th homestand—a 7-day, 6-game stretch…they’ll host the Pirates for a 3-game set, enjoy an off day on Thursday, and host the Rangers over the weekend…tonight, the Padres will commemorate Yu Darvish’s 3,000th strikeout between NPB and MLB (accomplished on Sept. 2, 2022 vs. the Dodgers), with the 1st 40,000 fans in attendance receiving a Yu Darvish Bobblehead.

Padres have 3rd-highest walk rate of any team since 2001

  • The Padres’ walk rate (the percentage of plate appearances that end in a walk) of 11.0 % is the highest in the Majors this year and the 3rd highest of any team since 2001, behind just the 2020 Reds (11.3%) and 2020 Yankees (11.4%).
  • Juan Soto leads all of baseball with 93 bases on balls, 25 more than the nearest player (CHC Ian Happ’s 68).

Extra-base hit differential

  • The Padres have 5th-highest extra-base hit differential this year, having hit 311 XBH and allowed 255 XBH (a +56 difference)…they’re behind the Rays (+60), Dodgers (+67), Rangers (+97), and Braves (+101), and they also have the 3rd-highest percentage of hits that have gone for XBH (39.8%).

STARTING PITCHER – YU DARVISH #11
Darvish set for 10th career start vs. PIT
Yu Darvish takes the mound for his 18th start of ’23, his 9th at home and the 10th of his career vs. PIT…he’s quality in 5 of his 9 career starts vs. PIT, and among all active hurlers who have made at least 9 starts vs. PIT, he has the lowest WHIP (0.86) and highest SO/BB ratio (8.14). 7th win in 7th quality start last Wed @ TOR Darvish posted his 2nd scoreless start (also: June 3 vs. CHC) across 6.0 innings of 4-hit ball last Wed @ TOR in SD’s 2-0 victory….he earned the winning decision in consecutive outings for the 2nd time this season (also: June 3 vs. CHC and June 9 @ COL).

Free passes
Darvish’s 7.9 walk rate is highest since his 8.1 walk rate in 2014 vs. TEX, and his 3.06 BB/9 IP ratio is his highest since 2018 w/ CHC (4.73), but he made just 8 starts that season… this season is his highest BB/9 IP ratio in a season with 22+ starts since his first 3 Major League seasons with TEX in ’12 (4.19), ’13 (3.43) and ’14 (3.06)…the 55th percentile in walk rate is the lowest percentile he’s been in the Statcast era (since ’16).

Limit the long balls
After not allowing any HRs through his first 4 starts of the season, he has allowed 11 across his 13 most recent starts since April 30 vs. SF in Mexico City…among the 38 ML hurlers who have tossed at least 70.0 IP since April 30, his 1.48 HR/9 IP ratio is T-10th-highest in NL…he is 6-3 and the Padres are 6-4 in the 10 games he has allowed 0 HR…he is 1-3 when he allows 1+ HR, and the Padres are 2-5.

Making SD history with the punchouts
Darvish has struckout 501 batters through his first 77 games pitched with Padres, the most ever by any pitcher by this milepost for the franchise…among all hurlers n their first 77 starts in franchise history, the next closest is Joe Musgrove (473 SO) and Jake Peavy (429).

Hit rate up
Yu Darvish has yielded 8.26 hits per nine innings pitched this season, the second-highest rate of his career (8.29, 2014 w/ TEX)…he’s never allowed as much as a hit per inning in any season of his career, and he owns the 3rd-lowest H/9 rate (7.29) among active MLB pitchers (min. 1,000 IP) behind only Clayton Kershaw (6.30) and Jacob deGrom (6.90)… Darvish’s 7.29 H/9 rate ranks 25th all-time in MLB (also min. 1,000 IP).

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