Saturday, September 7, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (74-59) at Milwaukee Brewers (74-59)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

  • GAME #133 RECAP: The Phillies lost a wild one, 10-8, to the Los Angeles Angels at Citizens Bank Park… Starter Cristopher Sanchez (ND) went 4.2 innings and allowed 5 runs (3 ER) on 7 hits with 0 walks and 5 strikeouts … Down 5-3 in the 6th, Trea Turner launched a 3-run homer to put the Phillies ahead 6-5 … Down again in the 8th, 7-6, Bryce Harper blasted his 300th career home run, a 2-run shot to put the Phils up 8-7 … Los Angeles rallied for 3 runs in the top of the 9th off Craig Kimbrel and avoided a sweep.
  • AT HIS BEST AGAINST THE BEST: Zack Wheeler has made 11 starts against teams that were .500 or better at the time of his start this year … In those 11 games, he has posted a 2.82 ERA (21 ER, 67.0 IP) and the Phillies are 6-5 in those 11 contests … Over his last 7 starts against teams .500 or better (8/15 at TOR, 8/2 at MIA, 7/7 at MIA, 6/13 at ARI, 5/27 at ATL, 5/22 vs ARI and 5/10 vs TOR), Wheeler is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA (11 ER, 46.0 IP) and has gone at least 6.0 innings in all 7 starts.
  • REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: Since June 3, the Phillies are 49-27 with a +119 run differential (413-294) … Philadelphia’s .645 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (55-21, .724 win %) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 73-54 with a .575 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the NL behind only ATL (.651) and LAD (.619) and 7th in MLB.
  • TURNED HIM LOOSE: Over his last 24 games (since 8/4), Trea Turner is slashing .365/.404/.760 with a 1.164 OPS, 21 R, 9 2B, 3B, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 6 walks and 2 stolen bases … Turner has hit safely in 22 of those 24 games played since Aug. 4 and he has reached base safely in 23 of those 24 … Among MLB players since Aug. 4, Turner ranks T-2nd in RBI and doubles, 3rd in SLG, T-3rd in HR and 4th in hits in OPS … He has raised his season AVG from .235 on Aug. 3 to .258 entering tonight and his season SLG from .368 to .437.
  • ANGEL IN THE OUTFIELD: Over his last 150 plate appearances (since 6/20), Brandon Marsh is slashing .352/.447/.563 with a 1.009 OPS in 43 games … Marsh had a career-high 4 walks in Wednesday’s game against LAA, and in his final plate appearance of the day, worked a 12-pitch at bat on his quest for five walks before grounding out to second … Among NL players with 150 PA since 6/20, Marsh’s 1.009 OPS ranks 5th behind only Mookie Betts (1.222), Matt Olson (1.094), Freddie Freeman (1.047) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (1.026).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – ZACK WHEELER • RHP #45
2023: 10-6, 3.59 ERA Career: 84-63, 3.44 ERA

LAST START: 8/26 vs STL: W, 7.0 IP, 3 H, ER, HR, 0 BB, 10 SO … Wheeler vs Hudson … The Phillies defeated the St. Louis Cardinals and picked up a series win with a 12-1 victory in a nationally televised game at Citizens Bank Park … The Phillies had three home runs on the night which included a pair of 3-run homers in a 7-run 7th inning (Castellanos, Marsh)

TONIGHT’S START:

  • The Gift That Keeps on Giving: Wheeler leads all ML pitchers in fWAR and is the only pitcher with more than 5.0 fWAR (5.2) this year … Since he signed with the Phillies as a free agent (since 2020), Wheeler ranks 1st among all pitchers in MLB in fWAR at 18.5 and he leads Corbin Burnes who ranks 2nd at 17.2, Kevin Gausman ranks 3rd (16.8), Aaron Nola 4th (15.8) and Max Scherzer 5th (13.5)

Winning DNA: Wheeler earned his 10th win of the season last time out … He has earned 10+ wins in 6 seasons and has done so in every season with at least 20 starts … Wheeler has earned double-digit wins in 3 straight seasons for the first time in his career … Wheeler became the 3rd Phillies pitcher this year with 10+ wins and only 5 teams in baseball have 3 pitchers with 10+ wins Fortune .500: Wheeler has made 11 starts against teams that were .500 or better at the time of his start this season … In those starts, he’s posted a 2.82 ERA (21 ER, 67.0 IP) and the Phillies are 6-5 in those games … In his last 7 of those starts (since 5/10), Wheeler is 2-1 with a 2.15 ERA (11 ER, 46.0 IP) Swing and Miss: In his last outing, Wheeler struck out 10+ batters for the 4th time this season, which ranks T-5th in the NL … He has accomplished this feat 2 other times in his career, posting 4 such games in 2019 and 7 in 2021 … Wheeler also generated a career-high 24 swings and misses in his last outing … He had previously set a new career-high with 23 on 4/23.

Quality Control: Wheeler ranks T-4th in the National League with 17 quality starts and he has earned one in 8 of his last 9 outings… Wheeler’s 7 starts with at least 7.0 IP and 3 or fewer ER is T-4th most in the NL … His quality start streak from 7/7-8/15 marked the 3rd time in his career he has had at least a 7-game streak with a quality start and first time since 5/6-6/16/21 … He is one of 12 ML pitchers to do so this year

In the Zone: On the year, Wheeler’s 4.6% walk rate ranks 8th among pitchers with at least 100.0 IP … It is currently the lowest walk rate of his career (previous best: 5.4%, 2021) … Wheeler has 18 starts this year in which he’s thrown at least 5.0 IP while walking 1 or no batters, which ranks T-3rd in MLB … That ties 2021 for his most such starts in a single season … In 7 starts from 7/1-8/8 (43.2 IP), Wheeler walked only 3 batters … It is the first time in his career that he walked 3 or fewer batters in a 7-game span

Dog Days: Since the start of July, Wheeler has the following NL ranks: 3rd in OPP OBP (.242) and T-3rd in WHIP (0.93), 4th in SO/BB (8.63), 5th in BB/9.0 IP (1.11), 10th in FIP (3.35), and 12th in strikeouts (69)

Zack With a K: Wheeler’s SO/BB rate of 5.83 is the 3rd best in the NL and 5th best in MLB … It is currently the best SO/BB rate of any season in his career (2nd best: 2021, 5.37) … Wheeler currently ranks T6th in the NL in strikeouts (175), with everyone in front of him, except Freddy Peralta (177), having at least 1 more start

Statcast Rankings: 98th percentile in extension, 95th percentile in walk rate, 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in barrel rate, 83rd percentile in chase rate, 81st percentile in fastball velocity and 75th percentile in SO rate

Pitch Usage: 4-seam fastball (41.6%), Sinker (18%), Slider (15.5%), Sweeper (12.8%), Curveball (11.7%), Changeup (0.3%), Cutter (0.1%)

vs NL Central: 14-7, 2.79 ERA (67 ER, 216.1 IP) in 35 starts

ROAD:

  • 2023: 6-4, 3.40 ERA (32 ER, 84.2 IP) in 14 starts
  • Career: 44-30, 3.47 ERA (256 ER, 663.2 IP) in 111 starts

2023 SEASON:

  • Took a no-hitter into the 8th inning on 6/8 vs DET which was the longest no-hit bid of his career (previous: 6.1 innings on 7/30/13 vs MIA) Reached 10 years of ML service on Sunday (6/11) vs LAD Recorded his 18th career double-digit strikeout game and 10th as a Phillie 5/27 at ATL Made his 200th career start on 4/23 vs COL

MILWAUKEE BREWERS NOTES:

BREWERS vs. PHILLIES
SUMMARY: Have gone 76-91 all-time,
including 2-1 this season…..went 2-4
last season.
at MIL: Are 40-43 all-time, going
31-36 at American Family Field and
9-7 at County Stadium…..went 0-3
last season and are 3-8 over the last
11 games in Milwaukee.
at PHI: Are 36-48 all-time, going
31-35 at Citizens Bank Park and 5-13
at Veterans Stadium…..are 2-1 this
season…..went 2-1 last season.

Welcome to September
With active rosters expanding to 28 players today, INF/OF Owen Miller and LHP Clayton Andrews were recalled from Triple-A Nashville.

Home Cooking
Milwaukee has won 6 straight home games, its longest home winning streak since winning 7 in a row from 6/25-7/8, 2021.

So Close
The Brewers have won 9 of their last 12 games with the three losses during this stretch all coming by 1 run.

Stacking Streaks
William Contreras extended his hitting streak to 10 games Wednesday, becoming the first Brewers player with at least three hitting streaks of 10+ games in a single season since Christian Yelich had three in 2018.

Mark Canha has reached base safely in each of his last 12 games, batting .333 (14-for-42) with 2 HR and 10 RBI.

Because He’s So Smooth
Carlos Santana is on a 9-game hitting streak, batting .343 (12-for-35) with 2 HR and 8 RBI in that stretch, including a .452 OBP/.600 SLG/1.052 OPS…..
it is his longest hitting streak since a 10-game run from 6/23-7/4, 2019.

TONIGHT’S GAME: Is game 1 of a 3-game homestand against Philadelphia…..following this weekend’s series, the Brewers will embark on a 7-day, 6-game road trip to
Pittsburgh (3g) and New York-AL (3g).

IN THE TRAINER’S ROOM: LHP Aaron Ashby (left labrum), RHP Adrian Houser (right elbow), RHP J.C. Mejía (right shoulder), OF Garrett Mitchell (left shoulder), OF Blake Perkins (left oblique), 1B Darin Ruf (right knee), RHP Julio Teheran (right hip), LHP Justin Wilson (left lat) and OF Jesse Winker (back) are on the injured list…..Ashby, Mitchell, Ruf and Wilson are on the 60-day IL.

IN THE STANDINGS (155 days): The Brewers have spent the following number of days alone or tied at each position in the NL Central standings: FIRST: 102, SECOND: 51, THIRD: 2, FOURTH: 0, FIFTH: 0…..the team is currently in first place, leading the Cubs by 3.0 games and Reds by 6.0 games.

SERIES-LY SPEAKING: The Brewers are 23-18-2 in series play.
Game 1: 23-20, Game 2: 24-19, Game 3: 23-18, Game 4: 4-2
Sweep Wins (9): vs. NYM (3g, 4/3-4/5), at SEA (3g, 4/17-4/19), vs. KC (3g, 5/12-5/14), vs. PIT (3g, 6/16-6/18), at CIN (3g, 7/14-7/16), at CWS (3g, 8/11-8/13), at TEX (3g, 8/18-8/20), vs. MIN (2g, 8/22-8/23), vs. SD (3g, 8/25-8/27)
Sweep Losses (5): at COL (3g, 5/2-5/4), vs. OAK (3g, 6/9-6/11), at MIN (2g, 6/13-6/14),
at ATL (3g, 7/28-7/30), at LAD (3g, 8/15-8/17)

AT HOME: The Brewers are 38-27 at home, going 12-7-2 in series play…..went 46-35 at home last season, going 15-8-4 in series play…..the team is currently on a season-high 6-game home winning streak, its longest since winning 7 straight from 6/25-7/8, 2021.

ON THE ROAD: The Brewers are 36-32 on the road, going 11-11-0 in series play…..went 40-41 on the road last season, going 9-12-5 in series play.

LET’S GO TO THE VIDEO TAPE: The Brewers have made 28 replay challenges this season, going 12-16…..their last challenge (won) came on 8/29 at Chicago-NL as an out call at first base (Mark Canha) was overturned.

TONIGHT’S STARTER: #51 – RHP FREDDY PERALTA (25gs, 11-8, 3.95)
PERALTA AT A GLANCE: Freddy Peralta, 27, will be making his 26th start of the season and first against the Phillies…..Peralta last started last Saturday vs. San Diego and earned a 5-4 win (5.1ip, 2h, 2r, 2er, 3bb, 9k, 1hr, 94 pitches)…..he is 5-0 with a 1.75 ERA in his last 6 starts (36ip, 7er)…..the team is 15-10 in his starts…..he has produced 13 quality starts…..opponents are batting .213 (110-for-516, 20hr)…..Peralta was acquired from Seattle, along with RHP Carlos Herrera and RHP Daniel Missaki, in exchange for 1B Adam Lind on 12/9/15…..on 2/28/20, he signed a 5-year contract through the 2024 season with club options for 2025 and 2026.

LAST SEASON: Peralta went 4-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 18 games/17 starts…..he held opponents to a .190 batting average with 86 strikeouts in 78.0 innings…..the team went 8-9 in his starts…..he produced 4 quality starts…..he was on the injured list twice last season: 5/23-8/2 (right posterior shoulder strain) and 9/9-9/24 (right shoulder inflammation).

CAREER: Is 41-25 with a 3.85 ERA in 141 games/92 starts (554ip, 237er)…..is in his sixth Major League season, all with the Brewers (2018-23)…..is 33-23 with a 3.85 ERA as a starter (470ip, 201er) and 8-2 with a 3.86 ERA in relief (84ip, 36er)…..was an All-Star in 2021.

CAREER AT AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD: Is 24-14 with a 3.45 ERA in 76 games/48 starts (300.1ip, 115er)…..is 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 14 starts this season (76.2ip, 32er).

CAREER ON THE ROAD: Is 17-11 with a 4.33 ERA in 65 games/44 starts (253.2ip, 122er)…..is 5-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 11 starts this season (62.1ip, 29er).

CAREER vs. PHILLIES: Is 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA in 5 games/4 starts (18.2ip, 21h, 13r, 10er, 6bb, 26k, 3hr).

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