Monday, December 23, 2024
Wager-Tracker: All Sports Betting Log

MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (66-56) at Washington Nationals (56-67)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #122 RECAP: The Phillies fell to the Washington Nationals, 8-7, in the first game a three-game set … Starter Michael Lorenzen (L, 7-8) went 3.1 innings and allowed 7 runs (6 ER) on 8 hits with 1 walk and 1 strikeout … The Nationals held a 1-0 lead into the 4th until the Phils plated 6 runs in the frame and led 6-1 after the top of the 4th … The Nationals rallied back with 6 runs of their own in the bottom half of the 4th and eventually led 8-6 heading into the 9th … Kyle Schwarber hit his 2nd homer of the night to leadoff the 9th, but the rally would end there.

KING OF THE (CAPITOL) HILL: Last night, Kyle Schwarber became the first player in MLB history with seven multi-home run games in a two-season span against any single team … Since joining the Phillies, Schwarber has played the Nationals 29 times (since 6/16/22) – in those 29 games, he has hit 17 home runs in 111 at bats (6.53 AB/HR) – of those 17 home runs, 14 have come across seven games … Per Elias, only two players have had six multi home run games in a two season span: MIL’s Eddie Matthews vs CIN (3 in 1953, 3 in 1954) and NYY’s Gleyber Torres vs BAL (1 in 2018, 5 in 2019) … With the Phils against the Nationals, Schwarber is slashing .324/.444/.847 with a 1.291 OPS in 135 plate appearances … Since 2022, among all MLB players with at least 100 plate appearances against any single opponent, Schwarber’s .847 SLG against WSH ranks 1st (next: Aaron Judge vs BAL, .844 SLG) and his 1.291 OPS ranks 2nd, behind only Judge vs BAL (1.322 OPS) … Schwarber, who spent part of the 2021 season with the Nats before being traded to Boston, has appeared in 62 games in his career at Nationals Park and has hit 26 home runs in 213 at bats, averaging a home run every 8.19 at bats … He has a 1.103 OPS in 256 career plate appearances in D.C.

LEADING MAN: Since Kyle Schwarber was inserted back into the leadoff spot on June 2, he has posted an .802 OPS with 19 HR, 50 RBI and 50 walks, and the Phillies are 41-25 (.621 win %) while averaging 5.1 runs per game (337 R, 66 G) … Schwaber’s 50 walks in his 65 games played since June 2 (lone day off on 8/9), all have come in the leadoff spot – the last MLB leadoff hitter with 50 walks in a 65- game span in a single season before Scwharber was SD’s Rickey Henderson, May 16-Sept. 21, 2001 … Schwarber has already set a career high in walks this season with 90 (previous: 86 in 2022) and he ranks 2nd in MLB in both walks and walk rate (16.6 %) behind only Juan Soto (103 BB, 19.1%).

NATITUDE PROBLEM: The Phillies are 6-5 against the Nationals this season with a +35 run differential (78-43) … In Philadelphia’s six wins, they have outscored Washington 55-15 (+40) … In Philadelphia’s five losses, they have been outscored 23-28 (-5) … All five of the Phillies’ losses against the Nationals this season have been by one run … Since 7/29/21 (G2), the Phillies have won 30 of their last 38 games against the Nats (.789 win %) and have outscored them 270-156 (+114 run differential) – that includes a 14-4 record at CBP and a 16-4 record here at Nats Park … In that span, the Phillies are slashing .287/.365/.550 with a .916 OPS – they have hit 85 home runs (2.2 HR per game) and are averaging 7.1 runs per game.

ALL GO BOOM: Since 2022, the Phillies have played the Nationals 30 times and they have hit 68 home runs which is the most of any MLB team against any single opponent over the last two seasons (next: MIL 60 HR vs CIN) … Philadelphia’s .553 SLG against the Nationals since 2022 is tops among all MLB teams against a single opponent (next: STL .542 SLG vs COL) … This marks Philadelphia’s most home runs in a 30-game span against any single opponent in franchise history.

RISP AND REWARD: Since July 1, the Phillies are batting .285 (98-344) with RISP and their .285 AVG in that span ranks 7th in MLB – their .368 OBP with RISP since July 1 ranks 4th in MLB and their .836 OPS ranks 6th … Overall, the Phillies rank 13th in MLB this year with a .255 AVG with RISP, however, from the start of the season through June, the Phillies ranked 25th with a .239 AVG with RISP … Since July 1, the Phillies have four qualified players with an OPS over .800 with RISP: Kyle Schwarber (1.072), Alec Bohm (1.053), Bryson Stott (.922) and Nick Castellanos (.838).

GLOVE AT FIRST SIGHT: Using Statcast’s Outs Above Average, the Phillies have the third-best defense up the middle in MLB this season … The Phillies have gotten 25 OAA from the following three positions combined: second base, shortstop and center field … Their 25 OAA from those three positions rank 3rd in MLB and trails only Kansas City (33 OAA) and CHI (26 OAA) … Individually, Bryson Stott has moved into the top 10 among all players in baseball with 10 OAA this season which ranks T-2nd among all MLB second baseman (with Nico Hoerner and Marcus Semien), trailing only SF’s Thairo Estrada (12 OAA) … Only three Phillies have finished a season with 10 OAA since Statcast started tracking in 2016: SS Freddy Galvis (10 OAA) in 2016, OF Peter Bourjos (11 OAA) in 2016 and OF Odubel Herrera (11 OAA) in 2017.

THEY DON’T BOO NOBODIES: Since signing with the Phillies, Bryce Harper has played 37 games at Nationals Park and has slashed .328/.455/.582 with a 1.037 OPS in 165 plate appearances – he has 30 runs, 18 XBH (10 2B, 8 HR), 20 RBI and more walks (31) than strikeouts (29) … Harper enters today’s game with an active 24-game on-base streak in this building (since 9/22/20, .459 OBP in 111 PA)

ROAD WORK: The Phillies have won 21 of their last 31 games away from home since June 3 and their .677 winning percentage on the road in that stretch ranks 1st in MLB (next: CIN, 21-11, .656) … This recent stretch includes a 13-game road winning streak (6/13-7/7) that is tied for the longest in franchise history (also: 13 G streak in 1976) … When that 13-game winning streak began, the Phillies were 10 games under .500 on the road at 13-23 – they became the first team in MLB history to be 10 games or more under .500 on the road before winning 11+ straight to get back over .500.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies are 41-24 over their last 65 games (since 6/3) and their .631 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (46-18, .719 win %) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 65-51 with a .560 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.640) and LAD (.605) and 8th in MLB.

HATS OFF TO YOU, THOMS: Since he was named manager on June 3, 2022, Rob Thomson has the Phillies 29 games over .500 at 131-102 with a .562 winning percentage that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.671), LAD (.651), HOU (.611), BAL (.589) and SEA (.579).

TODAY’S STARTER – CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ • LHP #61
2023: 1-3, 3.39 ERA Career: 4-5, 4.38 ERA

LAST START: 8/11 vs MIN: W, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 SO … Sánchez vs Keuchel … The Phillies defeated the Minnesota Twins, 13- 2, and kicked off Alumni Weekend at Citizens Bank Park … The Phillies had 7 extra-base hits on the night (4 2B, 3 HR) as Bryson Stott, J.T. Realmuto and Johan Rojas all homered

TODAY’S START:

  • Sweet Victory: In his last outing, Sánchez earned his first win of the season and the 3rd in his career as a starter … The offense put up 11 runs in support of Sánchez and it marked the second time in his career he had more than 5 runs in support (other: 6 on 7/5/22 vs WSH)
  • Watch Me WHIP: Since being recalled on 6/17, Sánchez’s 0.96 WHIP is the tied for 2nd in the major leagues (min. 50.0 IP)
  • Work Horse: In his last start, Sánchez set a new career-high for pitches in a game with 107, surpassing his previous high of 92 set on 7/24 … It is tied for the 7th most pitches in a game by a Phillie this year … He has thrown 894 pitches this season, eclipsing his total of 662 in 2022
  • Walk the Line: Sánchez ranks in the 90th percentile in walk % and his 1.85 BB/9.0 IP is the 16th in the NL (min. 50.0 IP) … Sánchez only issued 9 walks in his first 10 starts this season … He is one of 11 Phillies starters to walk 9 or fewer batters in their first 10 starts of the season and he is the first since Zach Eflin walked 7 in his first 10 starts in 2021
  • Change It Up: Per Statcast, Sánchez has struck out 28 batters with his changeup this season and has recorded a 37.1% whiff % with it, up from a 29.8% whiff % in 2022 … His downward movement of 43.4 inches (with gravity) on his changeup is the best in baseball and his OPP AVG of .162 against it is T-21st in MLB (min. 150 changeups thrown)
  • Reach for the Stars: Per Statcast, Sánchez’s average release extension (where the ball is released relative to the rubber) of 6.9 feet puts him in the 90th percentile among all ML pitchers … As a result, his sinker velocity, which averages at 91.8 mph, has a perceived velocity of 92.8 mph
  • vs NL East: 1-3, SV, 4.89 ERA (21 ER, 38.2 IP) in 13 games (5 starts)
  • Pitch Usage: Sinker (47.7%), Changeup (30.9%), Slider (21.5%)

ROAD:

  • 2023: 0-0, 0.60 ERA (1, ER, 15.0 IP) in 3 starts
  • Career: 1-1, 1 SV, 4.34 ERA (18 ER, 37.1 IP) in 12 games (3 start)

2023 Season:

  • Carried a no-hitter through five innings before being pulled from the game on 7/30 … It was the longest no-hit bid in his career
  • On 7/24, Sánchez tossed 7.0 IP for the first time in his ML career and set a career-high in strikeouts (8)
  • Was recalled from Lehigh Valley (AAA) prior to his start on 6/17 at OAK … Sánchez is in his 2nd stint with the Phillies this season … He was reinstated from the 15-day IL (left triceps strain) prior to his start on 4/22 and was optioned postgame

WASHINGTON NATIONALS NOTES:

OPPONENT
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Nationals and Phillies will face off 13 times in 2023 (6 in D.C., 7 in PHI)…Bryce Harper (2012-18), Trea Turner (2015-21) and Kyle Schwarber (2021) played for the Nationals…Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long served the same role with the Nationals from 2018-21…MASN’s Kevin Frandsen spent two seasons (2012-13) with the Phillies…Jake Alu is from Princeton, N.J. and attended Princeton Day School.

DOWN BUT NOT OUT
Trailing 6-1 in the bottom of the fourth inning, the Washington Nationals plated six runs in the frame to take a 7-6 lead and eventually beat the Philadelphia Phillies, 8-7, on Friday night…It was Washington’s second five-run comeback win of the homestand (8/13 vs. OAK).

  • CJ Abrams’ towering three-run home run into the bullpen put the Nationals ahead and capped the six-run rally.
  • Washington’s bullpen combined to throw 5.0 innings of four-hit, one-run ball with seven strikeouts and one walk.

STATUS CHECK
The Nationals have won six of seven games and are 28-20 (.583) since June 24…It is the best 48-game stretch for Washington since they capped the 2019 season going 33-15 (.688) in the last 48 games.

  • Since July 8, Washington is 22-13 (.629), the second-best record in the National League and the fourth-best record in Major League Baseball behind only the Los Angeles Dodgers (24-9, .727), Baltimore Orioles (23-12, .657) and Seattle Mariners (23-12, .657).
  • The Nationals have won 15 of their last 18 home games dating to July 8 vs. Texas.

LIKE A ROCK
Stone Garrett has hit safely in seven straight games, going .520 (13-for-25) with five doubles, two homers, 11 RBI, three walks and seven runs scored during the streak.

  • The Nationals are 14-1 in his last 15 starts dating to July 17…Garrett is hitting .404/.460/.750 with nine doubles, three homers and 15 RBI in those 15 starts.

NEXT ON 20-20: LANE THOMAS
With five more stolen bases, Lane Thomas would record the sixth 20 home run – 20 stolen base season in Nationals History (2005-pres.) and the first since 2016.

  • Thomas ranks in the National League in hits (4th, 138), doubles (T5th, 29), runs (8th, 83), total bases (8th, 231) and average (10th, .285)…He leads Major League Baseball with a career-high 12 outfield assists.

BORN TO RUN
CJ Abrams is third in the National League with 33 stolen bases… He stole 25 consecutive bases without being caught from May 5 to Aug. 10, the longest streak in Nationals history (2005-pres.) according to the Elias Sports Bureau…It was the longest active streak in MLB at the time.

  • Since being moved to the leadoff spot on July 7, Abrams is hitting .289 with six doubles, a triple, five homers, 13 RBI, nine walks, four hit by pitch, 22 stolen bases and 25 runs scored.

BACKSTOP BAT
Keibert Ruiz leads Major League catchers in average (.345), on-base percentage (.409) and slugging percentage (.575) and is second in hits (39) since July 9…He’s recorded eight doubles, six homers, 18 RBI, 12 walks, one stolen base and 17 runs scored in 30 games over this stretch.

  • Ruiz is 13-for-32 (.406) with two doubles, three homers, seven RBI, three walks and eight runs scored over his last eight games.
  • He ranks fourth in the National League with a .362 average with runners in scoring position this season.

OK, KYLE
Kyle Finnegan has nine saves, five holds and has pitched to a 0.92 ERA (3 ER/29.1 IP) with a .155 opponents’ average in his last 28 appearances.

  • He’s set a new career-high and is tied for seventh in the NL with 20 saves this season.
  • Finnegan surrendered seven earned runs and three home runs in his first three outings…Since the next outing on April 7 at Colorado, he has pitched to a 1.60 ERA (9 ER/50.2 IP) with 52 strikeouts and four home runs allowed in 48 games since that date.

STARTING PITCHER – #74 JAKE IRVIN
Tall right-handed starter was added to Washington’s 40-man roster following the 2022 season…Has the “Best Control” in Washington’s system, per Baseball America…Joins other University of Oklahoma pitchers Cade Cavalli (2020 Draft) and Jake Bennett (2022 Draft) in the Nationals organization….Is the 25th pitcher drafted/signed and developed by the Washington Nationals to start a game for Washington (2005-pres.).

LAST START
Allowed two earned runs on seven hits, did not walk any hitters and struck out six in 6.2 innings against Oakland on August 12…He did not issue a walk for the first time this season.

vs. PHILADELPHIA
Has never faced the Phillies.

RECENCY BIAS
Irvin has pitched to a 3.86 ERA (7 ER/16.1 IP) with 14 strikeouts against just four walks in his last three starts…Although he has not earned a decision, the Nationals are 3-0 in those three starts.

  • Since having his turn in the rotation skipped in early June for rest, Irvin has pitched to a 4.22 ERA (28 ER/59.2 IP) with 51 strikeouts and 16 walks allowed in 11 starts.

FIRST MAJOR LEAGUE WIN
Earned his first Major League win on May 8 at San Francisco…Tossed 6.1 shutout innings with five strikeouts, three walks and four hits allowed…With the outing, Irvin became the first pitcher in Nationals history (2005- pres.) to finish one of his first two career starts with at least 6.0 scoreless innings.

THE STORY OF HIS CURVEBALL
As told to Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post: “To Irvin, baseball was more about having fun than plotting a future. He learned his curveball grip by messing around in the backyard. He honed the pitch by throwing it from shortstop to first base during practice, a way of messing with his teammates.”

  • Opposing batters are 20-for-107 (.182) with 29 strikeouts against his curveball.

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