MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (56-47) at Pittsburgh Pirates (45-58)

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #103 RECAP: The Phillies opened up their 7-game road trip with a 2-1 win over the Pirates at PNC Park … Kyle Schwarber (2-2, 2 RBI, 3 BB) provided the Phillies’ offense with a 2-run HR in the 3rd inning … Zack Wheeler (8-5) got the win and posted his 3rd double-digit SO game of the year (11) … Rain cut Wheeler’s outing short at 6.2 IP and 90 pitches … After a 42-minute delay, Jeff Hoffman (0.2 IP, hold), Gregory Soto (0.2 IP, hold) and Craig Kimbrel (1.0 IP, 17th SV) combined for 2.1 scoreless innings of relief.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies have won 31 of their last 46 games (since 6/3) … Philadelphia opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 55-42 with a .567 winning percentage that ranks 2nd in the National League behind only ATL (.628) and T-5th in MLB … Their .674 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (32-12, .727).

RISP AND REWARD: Since June 3, the Phillies are 111-for-389 at the plate with runners in scoring position with a .285 AVG that ranks 4th in MLB and a .364 OBP that also ranks 4th … League average since 6/3 with RISP is a .259 AVG/.338 OBP … The Phils have four players with at least 40 plate appearances with RISP who are hitting over .300 since 6/3: Alec Bohm (.356 AVG/.400 OBP), Bryson Stott (.343 AVG/.390 OBP), Trea Turner (.318 AVG/.400 OBP) and Nick Castellanos (.311 AVG/.319 OBP) … OPS leaders for the Phils with RISP since June 3: Kyle Schwarber (1.090 OPS), Bohm (.911 OPS), Castellanos (.897 OPS) and Turner (.741 OPS).

STATE CHAMPIONSHIP: Tonight, the Phillies face the Pirates for the 2,312th time in history (12th-most head-to-head matchups in MLB history) … Last season, the Phillies went 6-1 against Pittsburgh which included a 4-0 record here at PNC Park and a 2-1 record at CBP … Dating back to Aug. 1, 2021, the Phillies have won 11 of their last 13 games against Pittsburgh, outscoring the Pirates 75-44 in that stretch (+31 run differential) … The Phillies have won six straight games at PNC Park (since 8/1/21) which is their longest winning streak in franchise history at this park – all time, the Phillies are 28-39 at PNC despite outscoring the Pirates, 281-269 (+12 run differential).

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS: Last night’s victory in Pittsburgh marked the Phillies’ 22nd one-run victory of the season which is the most such victories in the majors this year behind both MIA (23-9, .719) and CIN (23-20, .534) … In terms of winning percentage, the Phils’ mark of .647 (22-12) in one-run games is 4th highest in MLB behind MIA, MIL (.689, 20-9) and BAL (.667, 20-10) … In the month of July, 16 of the Phillies’ 22 games (73%) have been decided by 3 runs or fewer (10-6 record), 15 have been decided by 2 runs or fewer (9-6 record) and 9 have been decided by 1 run (5-4 record) … Among all MLB clubs in the month of July, the Phillies have posted the lowest bullpen ERA (2.73) and have had the 2nd-highest AVG with RISP (.306) behind BAL (.324).

FIRST THINGS FIRST: Two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper has played 45.0 innings this season at first base – in 40 total chances, he has made all 40 plays with 36 putouts and four assists – 12 balls have been in zone and he has converted all 12 into outs for a 1.000 zone rating … Per FanGraphs, his 0.6 Def is T-2nd best among all MLB first baseman (with DET’s Andy Ibanez) and trails only CIN’s Will Myers (0.7 Def) … Harper has 1 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 1 OAA (outs above average) at first base.

FANS DON’T BOO NOBODIES: In “Close & Late” situations (7th inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run on base, at bat or on deck), Bryce Harper has 52 plate appearances this season and he is slashing .444/.519/.622 with a 1.156 OPS that is 2nd in MLB (min. 50 PA) to BAL’s Hays (1.147) … Since the start of 2022 (including the postseason), Harper has stepped to the plate 119 times in close and late situations and has slashed .360/.454/.640 with a 1.094 OPS that leads MLB (min. 100 PA) – Aaron Judge (1.084 OPS) ranks 2nd and Corey Seager (1.064 OPS) ranks 3rd … Last postseason, Harper had 10 such plate appearances and reached base in five while posting a 1.214 OPS.

ARMS RACE: Over the last 46 games (since 6/3), the Phillies’ starting rotation has gone 18-10 with a 3.11 ERA (95 ER, 274.2 IP) with 278 strikeouts to 66 walks (4.21 SO/BB ratio) – during this stretch, they have the lowest OPS among all starting staffs in MLB at .642 (next: SD, .679), the lowest opponents OBP at .273 (next: MIA, .286), the lowest opponents SLG at .369 (next: SD, .382), the lowest WHIP at 1.07 (next: MIA, 1.10) and the most innings pitched at 274.2 (next: MIN, 269.1) – their 3.11 ERA ranks 2nd in MLB (best: SD, 3.06) … The staff has gone at least 6.0 innings in 31 of those 46 games (67%) and at least 7.0 innings in 14 of those 46 games (30%) … Since June 3, the Phillies bullpen has tossed the fewest innings of any relief corps in MLB at 145.1 (29th is MIN at 151.0 and most is SF at 221.0) but have the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB at 3.28, trailing only TB (2.93), ATL (3.01) and SF (3.22) … Philadelphia’s starters and relievers have combined for 15.7 fWAR which leads MLB (next: MIN, 13.9) and is more than three full wins clear of the next closest NL club (MIA, 12.2 fWAR).

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 28 games over .500 at 121-93 with a .565 winning percentage that is tied for 5th in MLB (with SEA), trailing only ATL (.668), LAD (.634), HOU (.609) and BAL (.585) … On June 15 at ARI, Thomson reached 100 career wins in 180 games at the helm which was tied for the 6th fastest of the 56 managers in Phillies history and the fastest since Pat Corrales in 1983 (also 180 games) … On July 9, Thomson managed his 200th game for the Phillies and had more wins (113) through his first 200 games than all but four of the 55 other managers in Phillies franchise history: Steve O’Neill (1952-54, 118 wins), Pat Moran (1915-18, 117 wins), Dallas Green (1979-81, 116 wins) and Bill Shettsline (1898-1902, 116 wins).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – AARON NOLA • RHP #27
2023: 9-6, 4.39 ERA Career: 87-68, 3.67 ERA

LAST START: 7/23 at CLE: ND, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 7 SO, 0 BB, 2 HR … Nola vs Curry … The Phillies defeated the Guardians, 8-5, in extra innings in Cleveland … Bryson Stott had four walks and three stolen bases and Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm each had 2 RBI … Craig Kimbrel blew his first save of the season (had been 16-for-16) – in the 10th, the Phillies scored four runs on 2 hits and Yunior Marte picked up his 2nd save after being summoned to escape a bases loaded jam.

TONIGHT’S START:

  • In the Zone: Nola hasn’t issued a walk in 3 straight games (20.1 IP) … This marks the 3rd time in his career he’s had a streak of at least 3 games without walking a batter (longest: 4 G, 5/26-6/13/22) … Nola is 1 of 8 ML pitchers this year to have a 3-game streak with no walks and at least 5.0 IP … Only Austin Gomber and Zac Gallen have had 4-game streaks
  • Nobody Rides for Free: Nola has walked only 30 batters in his first 21 starts this year … It’s the fourth time in his career and third year in a row that Nola has issued 30 or fewer walks in his first 20 starts … His 2.03 BB/9.0 IP and 5.6% walk rate rank 7th in the NL and since the start of 2022 his 1.57 BB/9.0 IP ranks 4th in baseball
  • 7 Strong: Nola has thrown at least 7.0 IP while allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 games this season, which ranks 3rd in the NL and T-5th in baseball … In his last start, Nola tied Jim Lonborg on the all-time Phillies list with 75 of such starts … This season, the Phillies are 7-0 in games when Nola does so
  • Pitch Usage: Curveball (32%), 4-Seam Fastball (27.7%), Sinker (19.2%), Changeup (12%), Cutter (9.1%)
  • vs NL Central: 26-10, 3.34 ERA (107 ER, 288.2 IP) in 46 starts

ROAD:

  • 2023: 5-4, 4.89 ERA (44 ER, 81.0 IP) in 13 starts
  • Career: 39-42, 4.15 ERA (314 ER, 681.2 IP) in 115 starts

2023 SEASON:

  • 2023 NL Ranks: BABIP (2nd; .256), IP (5th; 133.1), WHIP (2nd, 1.07), and SO (8th; 133)
  • Innings Eater: Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola’s 1005.0 IP are the most in the majors … This season, Nola has gone at least 6.0 IP in 18 of his 21 starts in 2023 (85.7%) … His 18 instances of 6.0 or more innings are tied for most in the majors with SF’s Logan Webb
  • Philly Value: Since 2018, Nola is the only pitcher in baseball to accrue more than 20.0 fWAR (23.8) and pitch for only one team … In that span, he ranks 5th overall in fWAR behind only Jacob deGrom (27.1), Zack Wheeler (26.5), Max Scherzer (26.4) and Gerrit Cole (26.4) … His 32.2 fWAR as a Phillie is 7th most in franchise history trailing Curt Simmons (33.5) for 6th place
  • What Is It Good For: Additionally, since the start of the 2022 season, Nola’s 8.6 fWAR is the tied for the best among all NL starters with Zack Wheeler (7.7)
  • Road Scholar: Since the start of the 2022 season, among all ML pitchers in road games, Nola has recorded the most SO (202), the most IP (189.0) and has the second best SO/BB ratio (6.97) … Nola’s 28 starts on the road in that span are 3rd most
  • Phils’ Ranks: Recorded the 30th double-digit SO game of his career and 3rd of 2023 on 7/4 at TB … Is now in sole possession of 3rd place in club history (Curt Schilling is 2nd with 48)

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

No team release available.