MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (55-47) at Pittsburgh Pirates (45-57)

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PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #102 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the Baltimore Orioles, 6-4, and took two of three games from the club with the best winning percentage in the American League … Starter Ranger Suarez (ND) went 6.0 innings and allowed 4 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts … Baltimore jumped out to a 3-0 lead before the Phillies rallied for two runs in the 3rd and 4th to make it 4-3 Phils … The Orioles tied it in the 7th before Edmundo Sosa smashed a solo homer to right in the bottom of the frame to put the Phillies ahead … Craig Kimbrel pitched a perfect 8th and Gregory Soto pitched a clean 9th to pick up his 2nd save of 2023.

CY YOUNG IN HIS SIGHTS: Right-hander Zack Wheeler leads all MLB pitchers in fWAR this season at 4.0 – Among National League starters, Zac Gallen ranks 2nd at 3.6 0.4 wins behind Wheeler), Spencer Strider ranks 3rd at 3.4 (0.6 wins behind Wheeler), Justin Steele ranks 4th at 2.9 (1.1 wins behind Wheeler) and Jesus Luzardo ranks 5th at 2.8 (1.2 wins behind Wheeler) … Wheeler has a 3.88 ERA this season which ranks 15th among qualified starters in the NL, however, he has a 2.88 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) which ranks 1st in the NL (2nd: Strider, 2.97 FIP) – Wheeler’s 1.00 difference between ERA and FIP is the highest of any pitcher in MLB this season (next: Strider, 0.76 – 3.73 ERA/2.97 FIP) … In fact, no starting pitcher in MLB has had an ERA in the 3’s (or better) with a 1.00 difference in ERA/FIP since Dwight Gooden in 1990 (3.83 ERA/2.44 FIP) … Wheeler ranks 6th among NL starters with a 27.1% strikeout rate (134 SO/495 batters faced) and 3rd in walk rate at 4.6 % (23 BB) – his 5.83 strikeout to walk ratio leads the National League.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies have won 30 of their last 45 games (since 6/3) which matches their best 45-game stretch last season (also 30-15, 7/27-9/14/22) … Prior to last year, the last time the Phillies won 30+ in a 45-game span was Aug. 4-Sept. 21, 2012 (also 30-15) … The Phillies opened this season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7- current), they are 54-42 with a .563 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.624) and LAD (.564) and 7th in MLB … Their .667 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (31-12, .721).

RISP AND REWARD: Since June 3, the Phillies are 109-for-380 at the plate with runners in scoring position with a .287 AVG that ranks 4th in MLB and a .365 OBP that also ranks 4th … League average since 6/3 with RISP is a .260 AVG/.339 OBP … The Phils have five players with at least 40 plate appearances with RISP who are hitting over .300 since 6/3: Alec Bohm (.349 AVG/.396 OBP), Bryson Stott (.343 AVG/.390 OBP), Trea Turner (.333 AVG/.417 OBP), Nick Castellanos (.311 AVG/.319 OBP) and Bryce Harper (.302 AVG/.367 OBP) … OPS leaders for the Phils with RISP since June 3: Kyle Schwarber (.979 OPS), Bohm (.907 OPS), Castellanos (.897 OPS) and Turner (.774 OPS).

STATE CHAMPIONSHIP: Tonight, the Phillies face the Pirates for the 2,311th time in history (12th-most head-to-head matchups in MLB history) … Last season, the Phillies went 6-1 against Pittsburgh which included a 4-0 record here at PNC Park and a 2-1 record at CBP … Dating back to Aug. 1, 2021, the Phillies have won 10 of their last 12 games against Pittsburgh, outscoring the Pirates 73-43 in that stretch (+30 run differential) … The Phillies have won five straight games at PNC Park (since 8/1/21) which is their longest winning streak in franchise history at this park – all time, the Phillies are 27-39 at PNC despite outscoring the Pirates, 279-268 (+11 run differential).

FIRST THINGS FIRST: Two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper has played 36.0 innings this season at first base – in 35 total chances, he has made all 35 plays with 32 putouts and three assists – 11 balls have been in zone and he has converted all 11 into outs for a 1.000 zone rating … Per FanGraphs, his 0.6 Def is T-2nd best among all MLB first baseman (with DET’s Andy Ibanez) and trails only CIN’s Will Myers (0.7 Def) … Harper has 1 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 1 OAA (outs above average) at first base.

FANS DON’T BOO NOBODIES: In “Close & Late” situations (7th inning or later with the batting team ahead by one run, tied, or with the tying run on base, at bat or on deck), Bryce Harper has 50 plate appearances this season and he is slashing .455/.520/.636 with a 1.156 OPS that leads MLB (min. 50 PA) … Since the start of last season (including the postseason), Harper has stepped to the plate 117 times in close and late situations and has slashed .364/.453/.646 with a 1.099 OPS that leads MLB (min. 100 PA) – Aaron Judge (1.080 OPS) ranks 2nd and Yordan Alvarez (1.073 OPS) ranks 3rd … Last postseason, Harper had 10 such plate appearances and reached base in five while posting a 1.214 OPS.

ARMS RACE: Over the last 45 games (since 6/3), the Phillies’ starting rotation has gone 17-10 with a 3.16 ERA (94 ER, 268.0 IP) with 267 strikeouts to 65 walks (4.11 SO/BB ratio) – during this stretch, they have the lowest OPS among all starting staffs in MLB at .649 (next: MIL, .677), the lowest opponents OBP at .276 (next: MIA, .286), the lowest opponents SLG at .374 (next: SD, .384), the lowest WHIP at 1.09 (next: MIA, 1.11) and the most innings pitched at 268.0 (next: MIN, 263.1) – their 3.16 ERA ranks 2nd in MLB (best: SD, 3.13) … The staff has gone at least 6.0 innings in 30 of those 45 games (67%) and at least 7.0 innings in 14 of those 45 games (31%) … Since June 3, the Phillies bullpen has tossed the fewest innings of any relief corps in MLB at 143.0 (29th is MIN at 147.2 and most is SF at 219.1) but have the fourth-lowest ERA in MLB at 3.34, trailing only ATL (2.94), TB (2.99) and SF (3.24) … Philadelphia’s starters and relievers have combined for 15.2 fWAR which leads MLB (next: MIN, 14.0) and is more than three full wins clear of the next closest NL club (MIA, 11.9 fWAR).

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 27 games over .500 at 120-93 with a .563 winning percentage that is tied for 5th in MLB (with SEA), trailing only ATL (.667), LAD (.637), HOU (.612) and BAL (.583) … On June 15 at ARI, Thomson reached 100 career wins in 180 games at the helm which was tied for the 6th fastest of the 56 managers in Phillies history and the fastest since Pat Corrales in 1983 (also 180 games) … On July 9, Thomson managed his 200th game for the Phillies and had more wins (113) through his first 200 games than all but four of the 55 other managers in Phillies franchise history: Steve O’Neill (1952-54, 118 wins), Pat Moran (1915-18, 117 wins), Dallas Green (1979-81, 116 wins) and Bill Shettsline (1898-1902, 116 wins).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – ZACK WHEELER • RHP #45
2023: 7-5, 3.88 ERA Career: 81-62, 3.46 ERA

LAST START: 7/22 at CLE: L, 7.0 IP, 5 H, R, ER, BB, 8 SO … Wheeler vs Bibee … The Phillies were blanked by the Cleveland Guardians, 1-0, and dropped two consecutive series for the first time since May 1-3 at LAD (0- 3) and May 5-7 vs BOS (1-2) … It marked the eighth time the Phillies have been shut out this year … The lone run scored on a high pop-up to the gap in shallow right field … Philadelphia’s offense was held to just two hits

TONIGHT’S START:

  • In the Zone: In his last 4 starts (25.0 IP), Wheeler has walked only 1 batter … It is the first time in his career that he has walked 1 or no batters in a 4-game span … He is one of 5 pitchers to have such a span this year (min. 20.0 IP), joining Zac Gallen, Max Scherzer, Joe Ryan and Aaron Nola … On the year, Wheeler’s 4.6%
    walk % ranks T-8th among pitchers with at least 80.0 IP
  • Dog Days: In July, Wheeler ranks 3rd in BB/9.0 IP (0.36), 5th in xFIP (2.59) and 10th in fWAR (0.7)
  • Zack With a K: This is the third consecutive season and fourth ever that Wheeler has struck out at least 125 batters in his first 20 starts … His 134 strikeouts so far are the 3rd most he’s had in his first 20 starts of a season (most: 160 in 2021) … Wheeler currently ranks 7th in the NL in strikeouts, with everyone in front of him having at least 1 more start
  • All About the Ratio: Wheeler’s SO/BB rate of 5.73 is the best in the NL and 4th best in MLB … It is currently the best SO/BB rate of any season in his career (2nd best: 2021, 5.37)
  • Quality Control: Wheeler ranks T-5th in the National League with 12 quality starts and has earned one in 3 straight outings … Wheeler also ranks T-7th in the NL for starts with at least 7.0 IP and 3 or fewer earned runs (5)
  • Strike ‘Em Out: Wheeler’s 27.1% strikeout % is currently the 2nd-best strikeout % of his career (best: 2021, 29.1%) … Wheeler ranks 6th in the NL in strikeout %
  • Luck Be A Ball In Play Today: This season, Wheeler’s 1.00 discrepancy between ERA and FIP is the 3rd-largest of any pitcher in MLB (Brady Singer, 1.35 difference) … Wheeler’s 2.88 FIP ranks 1st in the NL and 2nd in MLB (best: Kevin Gausman, 2.77) … Wheeler’s 2.88 FIP would be the 2nd-lowest of his career
  • Whiffs: Wheeler is running a whiff rate of 30% or greater on three different pitches this year: Sweeper (42.7%), 4-seam fastball (30.4%) and Curveball (30.4%)
  • The Gift That Keeps on Giving: Since he signed with the Phillies as a free agent (since 2020), Wheeler ranks 1st among all pitchers in MLB in fWAR at 17.3 and he leads Corbin Burnes who ranks 2nd at 16.6, Kevin Gausman ranks 3rd (15.9), Aaron Nola 4th (14.9) and Sandy Alcantara 5th (13.1)
  • Pitch Usage: 4-seam fastball (42%), Sinker (17.1%), Slider (16.4%), Sweeper (12.6%), Curveball (11.8%), Changeup (0.1%)

ROAD:

  • 2023: 5-3, 3.72 ERA (24 ER, 58.0 IP) in 10 starts
  • Career: 43-29, 3.50 ERA (248 ER, 637.0 IP) in 107 starts

2023 SEASON:

  • Took a no-hitter into the 8th inning on 6/8 vs DET which was the longest no-hit bid of his career (previous: 6.1 innings on 7/30/13 vs MIA)
  • Reached 10 years of ML service on Sunday (6/11) vs LAD • Recorded his 18th career double-digit strikeout game and 10th as a Phillie on 5/27 at ATL
  • Racked up a career-high 23 swings and misses on 4/23 vs COL
  • Made his 200th career start on 4/23 vs COL

PITTSBURGH PIRATES NOTES:

THE PIRATES:.. had the day off yesterday in Pittsburgh…Went 3-3 on their road trip, dropping two of three against the Angels before taking two of three against the Padres.

ROSTER MOVE: Prior to tonight’s game, the Pirates recalled outfielder Josh Palacios from Triple-A Indianapolis to take the place on the active roster of Carlos Santana, who was traded to Milwaukee yesterday.

TAKING A STAND: Tonight the Pirates host the Phillies in the opener of a six-day, five-game homestand…In addition to this three-game series against the Phillies, Pittsburgh will close out the homestand with a pair of games against the Detroit Tigers beginning Tuesday night.

SETTING UP THE SERIES: This is the first of six games the Pirates and Phillies will face each other this season…In addition to this series, the Pirates will also visit Philadelphia from September 26-28 in the final three road games of the season.

ABOUT TONIGHT’S STARTER: Mitch Keller will make his 22nd start of the season tonight in game one of this weekend series against the Phillies…Keller has lost each of his first two starts since the All-Star break…He is also 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA (57.1ip/23er) in nine starts this season at PNC Park, allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of those outings.

HERE’S JHONNY: The Pirates acquired 18-year-old infielder Jhonny Severino from the Brewers organization in exchange for first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana yesterday…The right-handed hitting Severino was rated by MLB Pipeline as the No. 21 prospect in the 2022 international draft class…MLB Pipeline also rated Severino as a 55 grade for both his power and arm at the time Milwaukee signed him as part of the organization’s 2022 international draft class.

THE RENEGADE: Two-time All-Star David Bednar converted his 16th straight save opportunity to close out Pittsburgh’s road trip Wednesday afternoon at San Diego…It’s the third-longest active streak in all of MLB and the most consecutive saves by a Pirate since Felipe Vazquez converted 24 straight save opportunities from June 6 to September 16, 2018.

CUTCH HAPPENS: Andrew McCutchen has hit safely in six of his seven starts since being activated from the injured list on July 16…McCutchen comes into today ranked seventh among all National League players in OBP (.382).

HOMETOWN HELLO: Last night Pirates minor leaguer Anthony Solometo allowed two runs in 5.0 innings in Double-A Altoona’s win at Harrisburg… The 20-year-old Solometo, who was selected by the Pirates by the Pirates in the second round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft out of Bishop Eustace (NJ) Prep School, now has a combined 2.58 ERA (87.1ip/25er) in 18 starts this season between High-A Greensboro and Altoona…Solometo, who is currently rated No. 91 among MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects, leads all Pirates full-season minor leaguers this season in ERA (2.58), strikeouts (101), batting average against (.216) and WHIP (1.13).

PHILTHY NUMBERS: Andrew McCutchen is hitting .327 (18-for-55) in his last 15 games against the Phillies…McCutchen’s first career walkoff home run came against the Phillies on August 25, 2009, off Brad Lidge…McCutchen also hit 47 home runs as a member of the Phillies from 2019-21…That’s the second-most among the five teams he has played for in his big league career (213 of his 297 career bombs have come as a Pirate).

YOUNG BUCS: The Pirates have used a total of 16 players 24-years-old and younger this year, which are the most in all of Major League Baseball (the Angels rank second with ten)…Pittsburgh has also used 21 players 26-years-old or younger, also tops in the game (Cleveland is second with 17)… The Bucs have had six players this season record their first career home run, five of which have come since June 1…In the expansion era (since 1961), the Pirates have had one season in which they’ve had seven players record their first career home run: 1969 (Steve Blass, Richie Hebner, John Jeter, Jose Martinez, Manny Sanguillen, Carl Taylor and Al Oliver).

STARTING PITCHER – 23 – RHP MITCH KELLER
MITCH KELLER: The 27-year-old righthander will make his 22nd start of the season…He allowed six runs in 5.0 innings and lost a 7-5 decision against the Angels in his last start on Sunday.

VS. PHILADELPHIA: 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA (15.0ip/13er) in three starts…Had a no-decision (6.0ip/1er) in his only start last year on 7/30 at PNC Park in a 2-1 loss…He also gave up eight hits and four runs in 5.0ip in a loss to Kyle Gibson on 8/1/21 at PNC Park…Also surrendered 11 hits and eight runs while also striking out eight batters in 4.0-plus innings as the Bucs lost an 11-3 game on 8/28/19 at Citizens Bank Park.