Thursday, November 21, 2024

MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (25-31) at Washington Nationals (24-32)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #56 RECAP: The Phillies fell to the New York Mets, 4-2, and were swept in a three-game series at Citi Field … Starter Taijuan Walker (L, 4-3) went 4.0 innings and allowed 3 runs on 2 hits with 3 walks and 2 strikeouts … The Phillies jumped in front early with 2 runs in the 1st but failed to score again … Philadelphia’s six hits were all singles, three of which came off the bat of Nick Castellanos.

NATITUDE PROBLEM: Since 2020, the Phillies are 36-12 (.750 win%) in 48 games against the Nats with a +103 run differential (302-199) … Philadelphia’s .750 winning percentage against the Nats since 2020 ranks 1st among all major league teams against any single opponent in that span (min. 40 G) … In this span, the Phillies are slashing .274/.357/.499 against the Nats and their SLG and OPS (.856) rank 1st among all MLB clubs against any single opponent (min. 40 G) … Philadelphia is averaging 6.29 runs per games against the Nats since 2020 which ranks 2nd among all teams against any single opponent in that span (min. 40 G), behind only the Blue Jays against the Orioles (6.31 R/G) … Last year, the Phillies went 16-3 against Washington which was their most wins in a season against any one opponent since 1962 when they went 17-1 against Houston … Since July 29, 2021 (game 2), the Phillies have won 24 of their last 27 games against the Nationals.

THE SUMMER OF SCHWARB: Since 1901, 1,880 major league players have made at least 500 plate appearances in the month of June … Out of those 1,880, 10 players have a career SLG of .600 or greater during the month, and, of those 10, eight are enshrined in Cooperstown and the other two are Mike Trout and Kyle Schwarber … Lou Gehrig ranks 1st (.739 SLG), Babe Ruth 2nd (.709), Larry Walker 3rd (.641), Ted Williams 4th (.635), Hank Greenberg 5th (.622), Jim Thome 6th (.616), Jimmie Foxx 7th (.615), Trout 8th (.614), Rogers Hornsby 9th (.603) and Schwarber 10th (.602) … Schwarber has 47 home runs in 462 career at bats during June and his 9.83 AB/HR average ranks 1st among all players in MLB since at least 1901 (min. 500 PA) – Babe Ruth ranks 2nd at 10.64 … Schwarber also has a .346 isolated power (ISO) during the month of June for his career which ranks 3rd in MLB since at least 1901 (min. 500 PA), behind only Lou Gehrig (.361 ISO) and Babe Ruth (.357 ISO) … Last June, Schwarber hit 12 home runs in 27 games and slashed .372/.385/.680 with a 1.065 OPS in 122 plate appearances as he was named National League Player of the Month, his second consecutive POM Award in June (also 2021 with WSH) … Over the last three months of June combined, Schwarber has 28 home runs (56 total hits) and is slashing .271/.368/.705.

D.C. POWER BROKER: In 37 career games against the Nationals, Kyle Schwarber is slashing .311/.444/.697 with a 1.141 OPS, 31 runs scored, 13 home runs, and 30 walks to 35 strikeouts … His 1.141 OPS against D.C. is his highest against any team and ranks 6th among all active players in MLB with at least 150 plate appearances against any single team … He is averaging a home run every 9.15 at bats which is 3rd-best among all active players against any one team, behind only Fernando Tatis Jr. against the Diamondbacks (8.25 AB/HR) and Aaron Judge against the Orioles (8.82).

WHEELS UP: Phils’ starter Zack Wheeler is slated to make his first start at Nationals Park since Oct. 2, 2022 (8-1 Phils win) – with temperatures in the 50’s and a steady rain falling, the Phillies reduced their magic number to one as Wheeler went 5.0 innings (7 SO, 0 BB) … In his last start, May 27 at ATL, Wheeler became only the second visiting pitcher to go into Truist Park and strike out 12 or more Atlanta hitters in 8.0 innings or more (other: Sandy Alcantara, 5/28/22).

JUNE BLOOM: Over the last three seasons (2021-23), the Phillies have combined to go 32-50 in the month of May and their .390 winning percentage during May ranks 27th out of 30 MLB clubs … During that same time (2021-23), the Phillies are 31-21 during the month of June and their .596 winning percentage during June ranks T-5th out of 30 MLB clubs (with LAD), trailing only BOS (.709), HOU (.667), NYY (.630) and ATL
(.618).

BULLISH ON THE PEN: Since April 16, the Phillies bullpen has allowed 45 ER in 146.0 IP and has the lowest ERA in the National League at 2.77 (next: SD, 3.08) which ranks 2nd in MLB behind only HOU (2.67) … Philadelphia’s bullpen has faced 617 batters during this stretch and limited them to a .223/.295/.344 slash line with a .638 OPS that ranks 3rd in MLB behind only SD (.614) and HOU (.619) … Per Statcast, since April 16, the Phillies bullpen is running the lowest hard hit rate of any bullpen in MLB (31.7%) with the lowest average exit velocity on balls in play (87.1 MPH).

MR. 400: Friday night in Atlanta, right-hander Craig Kimbrel earned the 400th save of his ML career in the Phils’ 6-4 win … He became only the eighth player in the history of Major League Baseball to reach 400 saves and he did so in the 730th game of his career, which is the 3rd-fewest games needed to achieve the feat, trailing Hall of Famer’s Trevor Hoffman (706 games) and Mariano Rivera (697 games).

IN COMPANY WITH COOPERSTOWN: The newest member of the 400 save club, Craig Kimbrel, ranks 11th since at least 1893 with 1,130 SO as a reliever … He trails Hall-of-Famers Trevor Hoffman (1,133) for 10th place and Mariano Rivera (1,135) for 9th place … Additionally, in the instances in which he converted his first 400 saves, Kimbrel had a 0.63 ERA (28 ER, 397.2 IP) – here are the ERA’s (in saves) for the seven current members of the 400-save club when they reached #400: Rivera (0.67), Billy Wagner (0.75), Lee Smith (0.83), Hoffman (0.84), John Franco (0.88), Kenley Jansen (0.94) and Francisco Rodriguez (1.05).

THEY DON’T BOO NOBODIES: Phils designated hitter Bryce Harper reached 5,000 career at bats last Thursday night at ATL … When he reached 5,000, Harper had 614 extra-base hits and 891 walks and he became only the 13th player in the modern era (since 1900) with as many walks and extra-base hits through the first 5,000 at bats of a career … Harper is joined by Babe Ruth (1928), Ted Williams (1951), Mike Schmidt (1982), Barry Bonds (1995), Mark McGwire (1998), Frank Thomas (2000), Jeff Bagwell (2000), Jim Thome (2003), Brian Giles (2006), Lance Berkman (2009), Adam Dunn (2011) and Mike Trout (2022).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – ZACK WHEELER  RHP #45
2023: 4-4, 3.60 ERA Career: 78-61, 3.43 ERA

LAST START: 5/27 at ATL (W, 4-4): 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, BB, 12 SO, 29 batters faced, 106 pitches/68 strikes … The Phillies finished the day 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position with 12 men left on base, but their 2 runs in the 5th inning proved be enough … Bryson Stott out the Phils up 1 with a sacrifice fly and Trea Turner followed with an RBI double … For the 2nd straight day, Craig Kimbrel converted the save, his 7th of 2023.

TONIGHT’S START:
Road Warrior: Among 38 active pitchers in MLB who have made at least 100 road starts in their careers, Wheeler’s .594 winning percentage (41-28) on the road ranks 8th … He trails Max Scherzer (.663), Stephen Strasburg (.656), Clayton Kershaw (.655), Gerrit Cole (.655), Justin Verlander (.627), Jacob deGrom (.621) and Adam Wainwright (.604).

East Coast Bias: Since joining the Phils, Wheeler has made 39 starts against the NL East – he is 17-11 with a 2.84 ERA (78 ER, 247.0 IP) and the Phillies are 22-17 in those games  Luck Be A Ball In Play Tonight: Wheeler has a 2.68 FIP this season which is lower than his mark last year (2.89) when he posted a 2.82 ERA … This season, Wheeler has a 3.60 ERA and his 0.92 difference between ERA and FIP is the 6th-largest of any pitcher in MLB … Wheeler’s 2.68 FIP ranks 6th among all pitchers in MLB – he trails only Zac Gallen (2.09 FIP), Sonny Gray (2.20), Spencer Strider (2.36), Kevin Gausman (2.38) and Nathan Eovaldi (2.54)

Whiffs: Wheeler is running a whiff rate of 30% or greater on three different pitches this year: Sweeper (42.4%), 4-seam fastball (36.7%) and Slider (29.8%)

The Ace Club: Since 2018, Wheeler ranks 4th in MLB (Nola 5th) in fWAR among all pitchers at 24.4 – he trails only Jacob deGrom (27.1), Max Scherzer (26.4) and Gerrit Cole (24.6)

Statcast Rankings: 97th percentile in extension, 90th percentile in AVG exit velo, 85th percentile in fastball spin, 84th percentile in barrel rate & walk rate, 82nd percentile in fastball velocity, 79th percentile in xSLG, 78th percentile in whiff rate and 76th percentile in strikeout rate & curve spin

10 years: Wheeler is at 9 years and 163 days of Major League service time today … He is scheduled to hit 10 years of service on June 11 vs LAD

ROAD:
2023: 3-2, 3.68 ERA (12 ER, 29.1 IP), 39 SO, 4 BB in 5 starts

Career: 41-28, 3.49 ERA (236 ER, 608.1 IP), 613 SO, 193 BB in 102 starts

2023 SEASON:
Recorded his 18th career double-digit strikeout game and 10th as a Phillie on 5/27 at ATL

Racked up a career-high 23 swings and misses on 4/23 vs COL

Made his 200th career start on 4/23 vs COL

On 4/12 vs MIA extended his streak of home starts without allowing a HR to 4 and his streak of 5 or fewer hits allowed at home to 9

WASHINGTON NATIONALS NOTES:

No team release available.

ATS Wins

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