Thursday, September 19, 2024
Sports Gaming Monitor

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (61-58) at Philadelphia Phillies (65-53)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: The Twins have gone 2-4 through six games on their current seven-game roadtrip, going 1-3 in Detroit, followed by a split of the first two games in Philadelphia…today, the Twins will wrap the series and roadtrip with the three-game series final at Citizens Bank Park…after today’s game, Minnesota will travel back home to enjoy an off-day tomorrow before beginning a six-game, seven-day homestand…the Twins will host the Tigers for two games on Tuesday and Wednesday, spent another off-day on Thursday, then play three against the Pirates next weekend…the Twins have gone 33-24 at home and 28-34 on the road.

Starting tomorrow, Minnesota has three off-days in the next eight days (tomorrow, Thursday and next Monday).

Since the All-Star break, the Twins have gone 16-12, fifth-most wins in the AL.

JOEY GALLO NIGHT IN PHILADELPHIA: The Twins beat the Phillies last night at Citizens Bank Park by a score of 8-1…Pablo López (8-6) was the starter and winner, pitching 6.0 shutout innings with four hits allowed, one walk and seven strikeouts…the offense recorded 11 hits and walked seven times — six of which came off Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, their most against a starter since drawing six against Shohei Ohtani on September 23, 2022…Joey Gallo tied his single-game career highs in hits (4) and times on base (5), recording his 17th multi-homer game, while tying his season high with four RBI…Matt Wallner (8) and Carlos Correa (15) also added homers, as Correa reached three times (2 hits, 1 walk).

SERIES STUFF: The Twins are seeking their 18th series victory this season…they are 17-16-4 in series play in 2023, going 10-6-2 at home and 7-10-2 on the road.

Entering today, the Twins have gone 7-5-1 in their last 13 series, dating back to their June 23-25 series at Detroit.

The Twins are looking to win their third-straight series against an NL opponent and fourth in their last five tries (2-0 vs. MIL — 6/13-14, 0-3 at ATL — 6/26-28, 2-1 at STL — 8/1-3, 3-0 vs. ARI — 8/4-6).

TWINS AND PHILS: The Twins are playing the Phillies for the 24th time in their history today… they are 12-11 all-time against Philadelphia, going 2-1 at Veterans Stadium in 2002, 1-2 at the Metrodome in 2004, 5-4 at Target Field in 2012, ’13 and ’16, and 4-4 at Citizens Bank Park in 2010, ’19 and ’23.

These two teams will meet next in 2024 for a three-game series at Target Field from July 22-24.

Max Kepler has hit safely in all eight career games against the Phillies, hitting .375 (12- for-32) with two doubles, four home runs, nine RBI, a .400 on-base percentage, an .813 slugging percentage and a 1.213 OPS.

Jorge Polanco has nine hits in 19 career at-bats (.474) against the Phillies (all in Philly), with one double, one triple, two home runs and a 1.447 OPS.

NATIONAL ATTENTION: The Twins have gone 16-15 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 at Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee, 0-3 at Atlanta, 2-1 at St. Louis, 3-0 vs. Arizona and 1-1 at Philadelphia…the Twins have gone 5-1 in their last six in IL Play and 9-5 in their last 14.

After this series, Minnesota’s remaining 2023 IL schedule includes Target Field visits from the Pirates (August 18-20) and Mets (September 8-10)…the Twins will also play road games at Brewers (August 22-23), Reds (September 18-20) and Rockies (September 29-October 1).

Max Kepler has six home runs against NL opponents this season…he has 21 career IL home runs, tied with Justin Morneau for fourth most in club history, trailing Torii Hunter (33), Eddie Rosario (23) and Joe Mauer (22).

Gallo’s eight IL homers this season are tied for eighth most among American League hitters.

LOVE FOR LEFTIES LATELY: The Twins have faced seven left-handed starters since the All-Star break, going 4-3 in those games…they are 13-14 on the season when facing a lefty starter… below is a comparison of offensive numbers vs. lefties pre-All-Star break and after:

AVG OBP SLG OPS BB% K%
PRE-ASG: .218 .289 .365 .654 7.8% 25.8%
POST-ASG: .255 .318 .471 .789 8.0% 23.1%

In their last eight games vs. left-handed pitching, the Twins have an OPS of .905 (.343 OBP/.563 SLG) with 10 home runs.

Carlos Correa is hitting .424 (14-for-33) with four doubles, two home runs, eight RBI, a .486 on-base percentage, a .727 slugging percentage and a 1.214 OPS in his last 17 games vs. left-handed pitching.

US AND THEM: Twins starters have combined to go 35-38, 3.86 ERA (668.2 IP, 287 ER) with 167 walks, 732 strikeouts and a .241 opponent batting average…below are other Twins starting pitching ranks among the MLB teams:

INNINGS QS BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
MIN – 668.2 MIN – 60 SEA – .233 SEA – 2.04 TB – 3.50 SEA – 1.11 MIN -732 SEA – .673
HOU – 665.1 SEA – 58 MIL – .236 MIN – 2.25 MIN – 3.66 MIN – 1.17 TOR – 675 TB – .677
SEA – 657.2 TOR – 55 TB – .236 SF – 2.26 SEA – 3.79 TB – 1.17 CWS – 671 MIN – .692
PHI – 653.0 SD – 55 MIN – .241 TB – 2.45 MIA – .4.02 PHI – 1.20 LAA – 654 TEX – .703
TOR – 652.2 HOU – 55 SD – .241 PHI – 2.51 PHI – 4.06 MIL – 1.21 MIA – 644 PHI – .703
C4, IGNITING: Carlos Correa has hit safely in a season-high eight-straight games, his longest since September 18-27, 2022 (also 8)…it is tied for the fifth-longest active streak in the AL…
his career high is 16, done in 2019 with Houston…a hit today would tie Edouard Julien for
third-longest streak for a Twin this season (Jeffers — 14 and Solano — 11).
ADuring the current streak, he is hitting .370 (10-for-27) with two doubles, three home runs,
nine RBI and a 1.229 OPS.
AFrom August 13, 2022 to the end of the 2022 season, Correa hit .340 (64-for-188) with a
.957 OPS in his final 49 games.
JEFF YEA: Since the All-Star break, Ryan Jeffers is hitting .339 (20-for-59) with three doubles, five home runs, 14 RBI, nine walks, a .443 on-base percentage, a .644 slugging percentage
and a 1.087 OPS…since the break, he ranks tied for seventh in the AL in batting average,
fifth in on-base percentage, ninth in OPS and 10th in slugging percentage.

STARTING PITCHER – SONNY GRAY #54
2023: 5-5, 3.18 ERA CAREER: 95-82, 3.53 ERA

Making his 271st career appearance and 262nd career start…also his 24th start/appearance this season.

Currently owns a four-game quality start streak, going 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA (25.0 IP, 9 ER), one walk and 27 strikeouts in that span.

Facing Philadelphia for the first time since August 15, 2021 (ND, 4.2 IP, 3 R/ER, 3 BB, 2 K)…is 0-1, 4.29 ERA (21.0 IP, 10 ER) with seven walks and 20 strikeouts in four career starts against the Phillies.

Acquired by the Twins on March 13, 2022 in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, along with right-handed pitcher Francis Peguero, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chase Petty

LAST TIME OUT: Took his fifth loss of the season in his last start on August 8 at Detroit…pitched 6.0 innings and allowed three runs (2 earned) on seven hits with no walks and 10 strikeouts in a 6-0 Twins’ defeat…marked the second time this season Gray has reached double-digit strikeouts (season-high 13 on April 7 vs. Houston)…in the first inning Riley Greene scored on a throwing error by Jorge Polanco after a groundball by Miguel Cabrera (the run was unearned)…retired seven of the next 10 batters he faced before allowing back-to-back RBI singles to Javier Báez and Zach McKinstry in the fourth inning…pitched a scoreless fifth inning and a 1-2-3 sixth to end his outing…relieved by Josh Winder in the seventh inning who permitted a solo home run to Jake Rogers…Winder also yielded a two-run single to Zack Short in the eighth inning.

Extended his quality start streak to four games…is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA (25.0 IP, 9 ER), one walk and 27 strikeouts in those games.

Has not issued a walk in three-consecutive starts, tying his career high (also May 29-June 22, 2022).

TWO STARTS AGO: Snapped his career-high 15-game winless streak in his last start on August 3 at St. Louis…pitched a season-high-tying 7.0 innings and allowed two runs on five hits (1 HR), with no walks and eight strikeouts in a 5-3 Twins’ victory…tossed a 1-2-3 first inning…yielded an RBI double to Dylan Carlson in the second inning…retired 13 of the next 15 batters he faced before allowing a solo home run to Alec Burleson in the sixth inning…pitched a 1-2-3 seventh to finish his outing… relieved by Griffin Jax, who pitched a scoreless eighth inning…Jhoan Duran replaced Jax and allowed an RBI groundout to Carlson in the ninth inning.

In his 15-game winless streak, dating back to May 6 at Cleveland, Gray went on a career-hightying four-game losing streak, with a 4.26 ERA (82.1 IP, 39 ER), 32 walks and 74 strikeouts.

ANYBODY WANT A CHEESESTEAK?: Gray is looking for his first win against Philadelphia after going 0-1, 4.29 ERA (21.0 IP, 10 ER) with seven walks and 20 strikeouts in his four previous career starts… Phillies are one of two teams he’s made at least four career starts against and never defeated (also, Atlanta, 0-3 in 6 career starts)…last faced the Phillies on August 15, 2021 at Citizens Bank Park, when he did not factor into the 7-4 Cincinnati Reds’ victory after pitching 4.2 innings and allowing three runs on four hits, with three walks and a season-low two strikeouts…just one of his four career starts against the Phillies has been quality, a no-decision on September 5, 2019 with Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park (6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R/ER, 0 BB, 7 K)…owns no record and a 5.23 ERA (10.1 IP, 6 ER) with six walks and five strikeouts in two career starts at Citizens Bank Park.

INTERLEAGUE PLAY: Making his sixth Interleague start of the season (May 12 vs. Chicago-NL, May 17 at Los Angeles-NL, May 23 vs. San Francisco, June 26 at Atlanta and August 3 at St. Louis)…is 1-1, 3.21 ERA (28.0 IP, 10 ER) with seven walks and 32 strikeouts in his previous five starts, earning the win in St. Louis and taking the loss in Atlanta…is 2-1, 3.16 ERA (42.2 IP, 15 ER) with 14 walks and 46 strikeouts in eight Interleague starts since joining the Twins.

Making his 26th career start against the National League and second since becoming a Twin (June 26 at Atlanta)…is 8-5, 3.45 ERA (143.2 IP, 55 ER) with 48 walks and 137 strikeouts in his previous 25 starts against the NL East…owns the second-lowest opponent batting average vs. the NL East (.214) since 2014 (min. 25 GS), trailing only Clayton Kershaw (.211)… also owns the fifth-lowest OPS (.613), trailing Kershaw (.562), Jacob DeGrom (.584), Zack Greinke (.607) and Hyun-Jin Ryu (.609).

THE ARSENAL: Gray has used a six-pitch mix this season, per Baseball Savant…currently uses his 4-seam fastball the most at 24.7 percent…recorded eight of his 10 strikeouts using his sweeper in his last start on August 8 at Detroit, his second-most effective put away pitch at 27.1 percent (trailing his cutter at 28.1%)…primarily uses his curveball (262 pitches) and changeup (133 pitches) against lefties and his cutter (231 pitches), sinker (295 pitches) and sweeper (293 pitches) against righties…here’s a look at his repertoire so far:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.8)………….24.7% (489 pitches, 175/335)… .339 (40-for-118), 6 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 7 K
Curveball (79.4)……………………18.9% (390 pitches, 128/262)… .259 (22-for-85), 7 2B, 1 HR, 20 K
Sweeper (84.1)………………………18.8% (387 pitches, 293/94)……….. .130 (17-for-131), 4 2B, 71 K
Sinker (92.7)………………………………16.2% (335 pitches, 295/40)…. .241 (19-for-79), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 24 K
Cutter (87.5) …………………………15.0% (3-9 pitches, 231/78)…………… .241 (13-for-54), 5 2B, 9 K
Changeup (87.6)……………………..6.4% (133 pitches, 5/128)………. .214 (6-for-28), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 K

Owns a .204 (77-for-377) opponent batting average across all of his secondary pitches (curveball, sweeper, sinker, cutter and changeup).

RIGHT WAY: Gray has seen more success against right-handed hitters as opposed to left-handed hitters this season…Gray has held righties to a .215 (57-for-260) batting average with 79 strikeouts as opposed to lefties who are batting .260 (61-for-235) with 54 strikeouts…allowed five hits to lefties while righties went 2-for-11 in his last start on August 8 at Detroit…since becoming a Twin, lefties are slashing .233/.283/.342 against him while righties are batting .229/.306/.335.

Owns the seventh-lowest OPS against righties (.578) among qualified pitchers this season (5th best in the American League).

ON THE ROAD: Gray is making his 13th road start of the season; is 2-3, 3.34 ERA (67.1 IP, 25 ER) with 25 walks and 66 strikeouts in his 12 prior road outings…has allowed three-or-fewer earned runs in 11 of his 12 road starts this season, with the lone blemish being when he yielded five runs in 5.2 innings on July 17 at Seattle…also has six quality starts on the road this year, is 6-6, 3.47 ERA (119.1 IP, 46 ER) with 36 walks and 105 strikeouts in 23 road starts since becoming a Twin.

Making his fourth-consecutive road start…is 1-1, 3.32 ERA (19.0 IP, 7 ER) with no walks and 23 strikeouts over his last three games.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #118 RECAP: The Phillies fell to the Minnesota Twins, 8-1, on Toyota Wall-of-Fame Night at CBP … Starter Taijuan Walker (L, 13-5) went 5.0 innings and allowed 3 runs on 3 hits with 6 walks and 2 strikeouts … Trea Turner reached base 4 times and scored the Phils’ only run as they went 0-for-10 with RISP on the night … Matt Strahm (3 SO) and Jeff Hoffman (2 SO) both made scoreless appearances in relief of Walker.

HOMESTAND FOR THE AGES: The Phillies will wear their cream jerseys for the 20th time this season today – they are 14-5 so far in the creams this year (.737 win %) … The Phils are 6-3 so far on this homestand and they have outscored their opponents 61-38 – they are averaging 6.8 runs per game and have hit 21 home runs (2.3 per game) … On Wednesday night, Michael Lorenzen threw the 14th no-hitter in Phillies franchise history … Following today, the Phils will head back out on the road for Two games in Toronto against the Blue Jays … Following their trip into Canada, the Phillies will head to Washington D.C. to play the Nationals for two games next weekend before flying to Williamsport for the Little League Classic on Sunday night against the Nats … After Williamsport, the Phillies will return to CBP for a 9-game home stand that begins on Aug. 21 with 3 games against the Giants (8/21-23), 3 games against the Cardinals (8/25-27) and 3 games against the Angels (8/28-30) … Of Philadelphia’s 44 remaining games, 24 will be at Citizens Bank Park (55%).

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies are 40-21 over their last 61 games (since 6/3) and their .656 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (42-17, .712 win %) … The Phillies are 65-53 for the second straight season and their record since June 3rd this year is one game off their first 61 games under Rob Thomson last season, which also started on June 3rd (41-20, 6/3-8/12/22) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 64-48 with a .571 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.633) and LAD (.596) and 7th in MLB.

PHILLY SPECIAL: Last night, Trea Turner reached base safely at least four times in a game for the fifth time this season (6/25, 6/13, 6/5 & 4/16) … Over his last 8 games (8/5-current), Turner is slashing .484/.515/.871 with 6 runs, 6 doubles, 2 home runs, 9 RBI and a 1.386 OPS … In terms of 8-game stretches in his career, his 6 doubles are tied for the most he has ever had (last: Aug 2020 with WSH), his 15 hits are the most since June 18-26, 2022 and his 8 extra-base hits are the most since Sept. 25-Oct. 3, 2021 (9) … Over his last 41 games at CBP (177 PA, since 5/6), Turner is slashing .296/.356/.512 (.868 OPS) with 25 runs scored, 20 extra-base hits (12 2B, 3B, 7 HR), 27 RBI, 13 walks and 9 stolen bases … He carries an active 9-game hitting streak into play today (since 8/4, 16-35, .457 AVG).

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE: Friday night, Kyle Schwarber set a career-high with his 87th walk of the season in his 518th plate appearance of the year … His previous high in walks was 86 last season in 669 plate appearances … Schwarber ranks 2nd in the majors this season in walks (87) and walk rate (16.6%), trailing only Juan Soto in both (99 BB, 19.3 % BB rate) … Over a span of 20 games from July 21-Aug. 11, Schwarber had more walks (26) than strikeouts (24) – his 26 walks were the most by a Phillies player over a 20-game span in a single season since Ryan Howard, Sept. 9-30, 2006 (27 BB in 20 G) … The last MLB leadoff hitter with as many walks (26) over a 20-game span in a single season was SD’s Rickey Henderson, May 24-June 16, 1996 (27 BB in 20 G).

BALL GO BOOM: Over the last 8 games (since 8/5), the Phillies have hit 20 home runs with 16 doubles (36 XBH), and they are slashing .302/.371/.586 in 302 plate appearances while averaging 7.0 runs per game (56 runs/8 games) … Overall this month, among all clubs in MLB in August, the Phillies rank 2nd in home runs (24) & XBH (51), 3rd in runs (76) & doubles (27) and 4th in SLG (.517) & OPS (.864).

AMERICA’S TEAM: The Phillies have won 18 of their last 23 games against the American League (.783 win % since 5/7) – they have outscored the AL 115-71 in those 23 games (+44 run differential) … With a 25-15 record overall against the AL this season, the Phillies have the 2nd-best Interleague winning percentage of any National League team at .625 (best: CIN, .630/17-10) and the 3rd-best Interleague record in MLB behind only TOR (22-12 vs NL, .647 win %) and CIN… The Phillies have a 9-4 record in series play against the AL and have won nine of their last 11 series dating back to April 18-19 at CWS … Earlier this year, the Phils had a franchise-record 12-game winning streak against the AL (5/7-7/6), which included wins over BOS (1), TOR (2), DET (3), at OAK (3) and at TB (3) … The streak is tied for the 2ndlongest Interleague winning streak in MLB history (13 is the record) and was the longest since 2017 when the Dodgers won 13 straight against the AL.

HARP ON IT: Over his last 17 games, two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper is slashing .288/.351/.515 with an .867 OPS in 74 plate appearances (7/25-current) … Harper has scored 10 runs and has 6 doubles, 3 home runs and 10 RBI during this stretch … At Citizens Bank Park this season, Harper is slashing .320/.404/.490 with an .895 OPS and 23 walks … Per Statcast, Harper has a .486 xSLG this season which is 57 points higher than his actual SLG entering play today of .429 – that 57 Point difference is the 16th-largest of any qualified player in MLB this season.

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 31 games over .500 at 130-99 with a .568 winning % that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.668), LAD (.648), HOU (.616), BAL (.588) and SEA (.577) … The Phillies are 69-42 all-time under Thomson at CBP and their .62162 winning percentage at home since June 3, 2022 ranks 5th in MLB behind ATL (.709), LAD (.684), TB (.649) and HOU (.62184) … Thomson will return to Canada this week while celebrating his 60th birthday on Wednesday in Toronto… Thomson, who was inducted into the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in 2019, was born in Sarnia, Ontario, Canada and is only the seventh manager born in Canada to guide a major league club and the first since 1934 … Last season he became the first Canadian born manager to ever manage a game in his home country.

TODAY’S STARTER – RANGER SUÁREZ • LHP #55
2023: 2-5, 3.96 ERA Career: 27-20, 3.30 ERA

LAST START: 8/8 vs WSH: ND, 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, HR, 2 BB, 5 SO … Suárez vs Gray … The Phillies split a doubleheader with the Nationals with the Phils taking Game 1 and the Nats taking Game 2 … In Game 2, the Phillies were up 4-2 in the 7th before the Joey Meneses hit a 2-run home run to tie it … Meneses homered again in the 9th to put Washington ahead

TODAY’S START:

  • Ground Level: Suárez’s ground ball % of 52% is 7th -highest among all National League pitchers with at least 70.0 IP and his ground ball/fly ball rate of 1.84 is T-4th … Since 2021, his 55.5% ground ball % is 4th in MLB and 2nd in the NL (min. 300 IP) … Since Fangraphs began tracking batted ball stats in 2002, Suarez’s career GB % of 55.1% is the best in franchise history (min. 250 IP)
  • Dog Days: In his career, Suárez has posted a 2.94 ERA (29 ER, 88.2 IP) in 27 August appearances … In his 14 career starts in the month, he has posted a 2.79 ERA (22 ER, 71.1 IP)
  • Southpaw Starters: Among NL left-handers with at least 10 starts, Suárez ranks 9th in FIP (3.87), 10th in ERA (3.96), 10th in OPP SLG (.420) and 14th in OPP OPS (.758)
  • Trouble With the Curve: Suárez has thrown his curveball 285 times in 91.0 IP this season after only throwing it 198 times in 155.1 IP last year … He is holding batters to a .156 average (10-64) with his curveball and has struck out 26 batters with a whiff rate of 36.3% … Among NL pitchers (min. 50 PA), Suárez’s curveball ranks 6th in OPP AVG, 9th in strikeout % (38.2%) and 14th in whiff %
  • Hit Me With Your Best Shot: Despite giving up 10 hits on 8/1, Suárez only allowed 1 run in 6.1 IP … He is the first ML pitcher this year to allow At least 10 hits while allowing 1 or no runs … Since 2016, Suárez is one of 8 pitchers to have such a game … He became the first Phillies pitcher to do so since Cliff Lee on 4/16/14 vs ATL
  • Pitch Usage: Sinker (28.3%), 4-Seam Fastball (20.7%), Curveball (19.3%), Changeup (18.8%), Cutter (12.4%), Slider (0.5%)

HOME:

  • 2023: 0-2, 5.36 ERA (25 ER, 42.0 IP) in 8 starts
  • Career: 14-8, 3 SV, 3.54 ERA (81 ER, 205.2 IP) in 63 games (31 starts)

2023 SEASON:

  • Recorded a 5-game streak with at least 6 IP and 1 or no runs (6/4-27) … It was the 10th time a Phillies Pitcher had done so and the first time since Cole Hamels in 2014
  • Posted a 17.0-inning scoreless streak (6/9-20)
  • Struck out at least 7 batters in a career-high four straight starts (6/9-27)
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