Thursday, November 21, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (42-42) at Baltimore Orioles (48-33)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 4-4 through eight games on their nine-game, 10-day road-trip, going 2-1 in Detroit last weekend, 0-3 in Atlanta earlier this week, followed by consecutive wins in Baltimore…today, Minnesota will complete the trip with the three-game series finale at Camden Yards…after today’s game, the Twins will travel back home to finish the pre-ASG portion of their schedule with a six-game, seven-day homestand, which consists of three games against the Royals from Monday-Wednesday, an off day on Thursday, then three games against the Orioles next weekend…the Twins have gone 23-19 at home and 19-23 on the road.

BAILEY OBER > BALTIMORE ORIOLES: The Twins beat the Orioles yesterday in Baltimore by a score of 1-0, improving to 8-1-2 in their last 11 series vs. the O’s…it marked the Twins’ second 1-0 victory this season, the other coming on June 2 vs. Cleveland…it was the first time the Twins won a 1-0 ballgame in Baltimore since Game 2 of a doubleheader at Memorial Stadium on October 2, 1966…Bailey Ober (5-4) was the starter and winner, pitching 7.0 shutout innings with two hits allowed, no walks and eight strikeouts…Griffin Jax earned his 11th hold and Jhoan Duran earned his 12th save (14th chance)…the offense scored their only run on a solo home run by Joey Gallo in the fourth inning…the Twins’ previous 1-0 win with the only difference being a home run was on June 23, 2022 vs. Cleveland, when Nick Gordon homered for Minnesota.

Michael A. Taylor was caught stealing in the seventh inning, snapping the Twins’ club record of 29-consecutive successful stolen bases…it was their first caught stealing since May 13 vs. Chicago-NL.

ROYCE OUT, JOSE IN: The Twins have placed infielder Royce Lewis on the 10-day Injured List with a left oblique strain…in his last 12 games, Lewis hit .381 (16-for-42) with one double, two home runs, six RBI, a .422 on-base percentage, a .548 slugging percentage and a .970 OPS…to replace Lewis on the 26-man roster, the Twins have recalled infielder Jose Miranda from Triple-A St. Paul…Miranda began the season with Minnesota and hit .220 (29-for-132) with four doubles, three home runs, 13 RBI, 12 runs scored and nine walks in 35 games before being optioned to St. Paul on May 10…since joining the Saints, he has played in 39 games, hitting .255 (41-for-161) with six doubles, one triple, three home runs, 23 RBI and 24 runs scored… in his last 20 games at St. Paul, the 25-year-old has hit .305 (25-for-82) with an .849 OPS.

Miranda made his MLB debut in Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 2, 2022 but went 0-for4…he recorded his first major league hit the next day with a double off Bruce Zimmermann.

TWINS AND O’s: The Twins and Orioles are playing each other for the third of six times in 2023…the Orioles will travel to Target Field for three games next weekend…Twins vs. Baltimore since 2017 in box to the bottom right.

Since 2019, the Twins have hit 42 home runs against Baltimore for an average of 2.0 home runs-per-game (21 games)…2.0 HR/G leads all AL teams vs. the Orioles in that span.

The Twins are 38-17 vs. Baltimore since the start of 2014…that marks the most wins against Baltimore among non-American League East teams in that span.

Michael A. Taylor is hitting .300 (33-for-110) with four doubles, three home runs, 17 RBI, 11 walks, a .366 on-base percentage and a .784 OPS in 36 career games against the O’s.

Byron Buxton has hit safely in nine-straight games at Oriole Park, hitting .342 (13-for-38) with six doubles, two home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.033 OPS in that span.

Carlos Correa is hitting .341 (15-for-44) with five doubles, three home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.029 OPS in his last 10 games at Camden Yards.

SWEEPS WEEK: The Twins are seeking their third sweep of the season today…their previous two sweeps were March 30-April 2 at Kansas City (3 games) and June 13-14 vs. Milwaukee (2 games)…last season, they swept opponents eight times, all in three games…Minnesota’s last sweep of the Orioles came in three games at Target Field from May 24-25, 2021…their last sweep in Baltimore came in three games April 20-21, 2019 (DH on the 20th).

Since 2017, the Twins have swept the Orioles five times in 10 chances…the only teams they have swept more in that time frame are the Royals (9 times), the Tigers (8 times) and the White Sox (6 times).

SONDAY FUNDAY: Below are Sonny Gray’s ranks among AL starters in a few notable categories:
ERA ER (75.0 IP) SLG HR (75.0 IP) FIP WAR
Valdez – 2.49 Ober – 23 Rodriguez – .311 Gray – 3 Gausman – 2.51 Gausman – 3.6
McClanahan – 2.53 Gray – 24 Ohtani – .317 Sandoval – 6 Gray – 2.79 Valdez – 3.2
Eovaldi – 2.64 McClanahan – 27 Valdez – .332 Valdez – 6 Valdez – 2.82 Eovaldi – 3.1
Gray – 2.67 Valdez – 29 Gray – .336 Detmers – 7 Eovaldi – 3.09 Gray – 2.7
Cole – 2.78 Castillo – 30 Eovaldi – .349 4 tied – 8 Rodriguez – 3.13 López – 2.4

SOME LOVE FOR THE LEFTIES: Today marks the 18th time this season Minnesota has faced a lefty starter…Twins are 8-9 when a left-hander is the opposing starter.

The Twins have the eighth-fewest at-bats in baseball vs. left-handed pitching at 680… also the fifth-fewest hits (147).

Twins are slashing .216/.287/.372 with 23 homers vs. lefties, compared to .237/.315/.409 with 85 homers vs. righties.

TWINS ML WEEKLYS: The Twins have named Triple-A St. Paul outfielder Matt Wallner and High-A Cedar Rapids right-handed pitcher Kyle Jones as their minor league Player and Pitcher of the Week.

Wallner, 25, played in five games for the Saints, hitting .409 (9-for-22) with two doubles, one triple, two home runs, seven RBI and a 1.298 OPS…he had back-to-back three-hit games on Thursday (2 homers) and Friday vs. Gwinnett.

Jones, 23, appeared in two games (1 start) for the Kernels, going 1-0, 1.23 ERA (7.1 IP, 1 ER), with five walks and eight strikeouts, while holding opponents to a .154 batting average…the St. Clair Shores, Michigan native was selected by the Twins in the seventh round of the 2022 First-Year Player Draft from the University of Toledo.

THIS AND THAT:
Byron Buxton has four hits in his last 12 at-bats (.333) with two doubles, one home run and a 1.135 OPS.

Donovan Solano has posted a .404 OBP in his last 27 games, recording 21 hits and drawing 15 walks with two HBP’s in 94 PAs.

On this day in 2012, the Twins beat the Tigers by a score of 6-4 at Comerica Park to give Ron Gardenhire his 900th career managerial victory…Glen Perkins saved the game with 1.0 scoreless inning and two strikeouts.

Bally Sports North analyst, Glen Perkins, made his second and third career appearances in this ballpark on September 23 and 24, 2006…in the first game, he earned a hold, pitching 0.2 innings, inducing a flyball out to Brian Roberts followed by a groundout from Chris Gomez…in his final appearance at Camden Yards on August 23, 2015, he earned the win with 1.0 scoreless inning of relief in a Twins 4-3 12-inning victory…that marked the 34th of his 35 career big league wins.

STARTING PITCHER – SONNY GRAY #54
2023: 4-2, 2.67 ERA CAREER: 94-79, 3.51 ERA

Making his 264th career appearance and 255th career start…also his 17th start/appearance this season.

Looking for his first win since April 30 vs. Kansas City…his 10-game winless streak is tied for the third longest in his career (also, September 29, 2018 to May 15, 2019).

Facing Baltimore for the 13th time in his career…is 6-5, 4.60 ERA (62.2 IP, 32 ER) with 23 walks and 65 strikeouts in his 12 previous starts.

Acquired by the Twins on March 13, 2022 in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, along with right-handed pitcher Francis Peguero, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chase Petty

LAST TIME OUT: Took his second loss of the season despite recording a quality start in his last appearance on June 26 against Atlanta at Truist Park…pitched 6.2 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits (1 HR), with one walk and five strikeouts in a 4-1 Twins’ defeat, opposite Spencer Strider…tossed 102 pitches, his first time throwing over 100 pitches since May 23 vs. San Francisco when he threw 105 pitches…retired nine of the first 13 batters he faced, including a 1-2-3 first inning…yielded an RBI groundout to catcher Travis d’Arnaud after allowing two singles in the fourth inning…allowed his third home run of the season to designated hitter Marcell Ozuna to start the seventh…recorded the next two outs before permitting a single to Michael Harris II and exiting the game…relieved by Emilio Pagán, who allowed a two-run home run to Ronald Acuña Jr. (1 ER charged to Gray)…Josh Winder later pitched a scoreless eighth inning…The Twins’ only run came from a Joey Gallo home run in the second inning off Strider. Gray has not earned a win in his last 10 starts, last earning a victory on April 30 vs. Kansas City; the 10-start streak without a win is tied for the third-longest such stretch of his career (also, September 29, 2018 to May 15, 2019).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took his third-consecutive no-decision in his last start on June 21 vs. Boston at Target Field…pitched 5.0 innings and allowed three runs on six hits (1 HR), with two walks and five strikeouts in a 10-inning 5-4 Twins’ victory…yielded an RBI double to infielder Rafael Devers in the top of the first inning; marked the first run he has allowed in the first inning since April 18 at Boston…allowed his second home run of the season to designated hitter Justin Turner in the third inning…permitted an RBI single in the fifth inning to Turner for his final run…relieved by Brock Stewart who combined with Griffin Jax to pitch scoreless sixth and seventh innings…Jhoan Duran entered in the eighth inning and allowed a game-tying RBI double to Triston Casas…the Twins won in walk-off fashion in the 10th inning via an RBI single by Kyle Farmer, his second-walk off plate appearance of the season.

GOOD MORNING BALTIMORE: Gray is facing the Orioles for the 13th time in his career, going 6-5, 4.60 ERA (62.2 IP, 32 ER) with 23 walks and 65 strikeouts in his 12 previous starts…last faced Baltimore on July 2, 2022 at Target Field; did not factor into the decision in the 4-3 Twins’ walkoff victory after pitching 5.0 innings and allowing three runs on six hits (1 HR), issuing three walks and striking out five batters…yielded his first run on an RBI double to third baseman Tyler Nevin in the second inning…permitted a solo home run to outfielder Anthony Santander in the third inning and allowed his final run a sacrifice fly by Jorge Mateo… relieved by Jharel Cotton in the sixth inning as he combined with Emilio Pagán to pitch 4.0 scoreless innings (Cotton – 3.0, Pagán – 1.0)…Gray pitched opposite Jordan Lyles who pitched 6.0 scoreless innings before allowing a solo home run to Nick Gordon…current Twin Jorge López entered in the ninth inning to close the game for the O’s but allowed a game-tying solo home run to Jorge Polanco and a walk-off single to Jose Miranda.

FAR EAST MOVEMENT: Today will be Gray’s ninth start against an American League East opponent since joining the Twins…is 1-1, 2.50 ERA (39.2 IP, 11 ER) with 18 walks and 43 strikeouts in his previous eight starts in that span (BOS – 3, BAL – 1, TOR – 2, NYY – 2)…in 60 career appearances (56 career starts) against the AL East, Gray is 17-23, 4.20 ERA (319.0 IP, 149 ER) with 125 walks and 297 strikeouts.

Owns the seventh-lowest ERA against the AL East since the start of 2022 (min. 35.0 IP).

BACK TO THE ROAD: Gray is making his eighth road start of the season; is 1-1, 3.19 ERA (36.2 IP, 13 ER) with 18 walks and 31 strikeouts in his seven prior road outings…is 5-4, 3.45 ERA (88.2 IP, 34 ER) with 29 walks and 70 strikeouts in 18 road starts since becoming a Twin…Twins are 9-9 in those starts.

Currently holds the 11th-lowest road ERA in the American League this season (min. 35.0 IP).

YARD WORK: Gray is making his first start at Camden Yards since August 25, 2018 when he lead the New York Yankees to a 5-1 victory after pitching 6.1 scoreless innings and allowing just three hits, with one walk and seven strikeouts…currently owns a four-game win streak at Camden Yards dating back to September 7, 2017; owns a 0.38 ERA (24.0 IP, 1 ER) with four walk and 26 strikeouts in that span.

THE ARSENAL: Gray has used a six-pitch mix this season, per Baseball Savant…currently uses his 4-seam fastball the most at 22.5 percent…allowed his third home run of the season off a fastball in last start on June 25…primarily uses his curveball (186 pitches) and changeup (94 pitches) against lefties and his cutter (190 pitches), sinker (231 pitches) and sweeper (210 pitches) against righties…here’s a look at his repertoire so far:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.8)…………….. 22.5% (326 pitches, 115/211)………. .338 (26-for-77), 5 2B, 1 HR, 3 K
Curveball (79.1)……………………….. 19.5% (283 pitches, 97/186)……… .270 (17-for-63), 5 2B, 1 HR, 17 K
Sinker (92.7)………………………………….. 18.3% (265 pitches, 231/34). .241 (13-for-54), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 K
Cutter (87.6) …………………………….. 16.8% (24 pitches, 190/54)…………………. .227 (10-for-44), 3 2B, 8 K
Sweeper (83.8)…………………………. 16.3% (236 pitches, 210/26)………………. .149 (11-for-74), 3 2B, 37 K
Changeup (87.3)………………………….. 6.6% (96 pitches, 2/94)…………….. .143 (3-for-21), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 K

Owns the lowest opponent batting average against a sweeper among American League pitchers (min. 50 PA) and ranks eighth in all of baseball.

His 37 strikeouts on his sweeper are the third most in the majors, behind LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (56) and COL’s Justin Lawrence (40).

Tied for the seventh-most strikeouts in the American League off breaking pitches at 54.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES NOTES:

YESTERDAY’S NEWS: The Orioles fell to the Twins yesterday, 1-0…Have lost four straight games for the first time since June 28 to July 2, 2022, which included dropping two games to the Twins at Target Field from July 1-2; following that skid, the O’s went on a 10-game winning streak from July 3-13, tied for the fifth-longest in a single season in O’s history (since 1954) and the longest since the team won 13 in a row in 1999…Kyle Bradish allowed one run over 6.0 innings.

Baltimore has been shut out six times this season, all since May 3.

The three total bases are tied for the fewest in a game this season, joining April 5 at Texas; marks the fewest at home since September 19, 2022 (2).

Adley Rutschman recorded his 12th infield hit of the year in the ninth inning, tied for fifth in the AL and tied for 10th in MLB; Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk led primary catchers with 15 infield knocks in 2022.

The Orioles have not been swept in a series since May 13-15, 2022 at Detroit (3 G) and not at Oriole Park since August 27-29, 2021 vs. Tampa Bay (3 G).

WRAPPING UP JUNE: The Orioles finished the month of June with a 13-11 record…Their .542 winning percentage last month ranked third in the AL and 10th in MLB…The only AL teams with a better winning percentage in June were the Rays (.630, 17-10) and Blue Jays (.593, 16-11)…Last year, the Orioles went 14-12 in June to record their first winning month since August 2017…The Birds went 16-9 in July 2022, their best monthly winning percentage of the season.

Austin Hays ranked among AL leaders for the month in doubles (T-4th, 9) and hits (T-6th, 31).

Jorge Mateo ranked among AL leaders for the month in stolen bases (T-6th, 6).

Félix Bautista ranked among AL leaders for the month in saves (T-2nd, 7).

RAKING ROOKIE: In the month of June, Gunnar Henderson led AL rookies in home runs (6), RBI (16), slugging (.640), and OPS (.994)…He ranked among AL rookie leaders for the month in total bases (2nd, 48), extra-base hits (T-2nd, 11), triples (T-2nd, 1), average (3rd, .320), on-base percentage (6th, .354), hits (T-6th, 24), runs (T-5th, 10), stolen bases (T-5th, 3), and doubles (T-8th, 4)…His 93.1 mph average exit velocity for the month led all rookies and ranked eighth in the AL (min. 75 AB)…Named the AL Player of the Week for the week of June 5-11, his first career weekly award and the first Orioles winner since Ryan Mountcastle in June 2021.

WRAPPING UP THE HOMESTAND: The O’s complete a nine-game, 10-day homestand today…The team is 3-5 through the first eight games against Seattle (2-1), Cincinnati (1-2), and Minnesota (0-2).

The Orioles are 25-18 (.581) in Baltimore this year, the third-best home record in the AL.

LOOKING AHEAD: Baltimore begins a seven-game road trip with four games in the Bronx against New York from July 3-6 before completing the pre-All-Star break schedule with three games in the Twin Cities against Minnesota from July 7-9…The Orioles open after the break with a six-game homestand against Miami and Los Angeles-NL from July 14-19.

The O’s have the best record on the road in the AL and third-best in MLB at 23-15; the Birds have had the best road record in the AL 12 times in team history (since 1954), most recently in 2012 (46-35).

MID-TERMS: The Orioles played their 81st game of the season yesterday, marking the halfway point of the season…Last year, the O’s were 37-44 and in last place in the AL East, 21.5 games behind the Yankees, and 6.5 games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot at the halfway mark…Entering today, the Orioles are 48-33 and in second place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind the Rays, and are leading the Wild Card with a 4.0-game cushion on the Yankees.

The O’s slashed .250/.319/.417 (682-for-2727) this season compared to .229/.297/.383 (627-for-2736) through 81 games last year; the team has scored 60 more runs (389 to 329), have 90 more total bases (1138 to 1048), and 12 more home runs (96 to 84) in 2023 compared to the midpoint last season.

AGAINST THE TWINS: The Orioles and Twins are meeting for the first time this season with the current three-game set…The O’s will travel to Minnesota next weekend to play at Target Field from July 7-9…Baltimore lost 16 straight games to the Twins from March 31, 2018 to May 31, 2021…The 16-game losing skid is the longest by the O’s against Minnesota since the moved to the Twin Cities in 1961 and the third-longest against a single opponent in team history (since 1954).

The O’s hit 11 home runs in the seven games against the Twins last season; nine were solo shots.

HAYS OF OUR LIVES: Austin Hays ranks third in the AL (see box at right) and seventh in MLB with a .313 batting average…He also ranks among AL leaders in doubles (T-4th, 22), hits (T-8th, 87), OPS (9th, .846), and slugging percentage (10th, .493)…Only one Oriole has ever won a batting title: Orioles Legend and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, who hit .316 in 1966… Hanser Alberto, who finished with a .305 batting average in 2019, is the only qualified Oriole in the last 14 seasons to finish the year with a batting average of at least .300.

No player has ever led the AL in batting average at the All-Star Break and not been an All-Star, according to the Elias Sports Bureau; there have been six such instances in the NL, most recently Hunter Pence in 2007 and Larry Walker in 2002.

TONY’S TATERS: Anthony Santander is slashing .288/.345/.532 (59-for-205) with 12 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, 32 runs scored, 36 RBI, 16 walks, two hit-by-pitches, and one stolen base in 52 games since the start of May…During that time, he ranks among AL leaders in total bases (T-5th, 109), home runs (T-5th), slugging percentage (6th), extra-base hits (T-7th, 25), RBI (T-7th), and OPS (8th, .877)…He homered in three straight games from June 23-25 for the second time in his career (also: 8/8-11/21) and is the second Oriole to homer in three straight games this season, joining Gunnar Henderson from June 10-13.

His 14 home runs lead the O’s and rank fourth among MLB switch hitters.

STARTING PITCCHER – #19 COLE IRVIN LHP
QUICK HITS: Scheduled to make his ninth appearance (seventh start) of the season, fifth start at home, and second career start against the Twins today… Recalled from Triple-A Norfolk on June 10, his third stint with the O’s…Spent the 2022 season with the Athletics; led the team in wins (9), starts (30), innings pitched (181.0), and strikeouts (128)…Posted career-lows in ERA (3.98), opponent batting average (.251), on-base percentage (.293), slugging percentage (.416), and OPS (.709)…Allowed two earned runs-or-fewer in 17 of his 30 starts… Acquired by the Orioles along with RHP Kyle Virbitsky from Oakland in exchange for SS Darell Hernaiz on January 26, 2023…Originally selected by the Phillies in the fifth round of the 2016 First-Year Player Draft out of Oregon.

LAST TIME OUT: Did not factor in the decision on June 26 vs. Cincinnati, after allowing one run on three hits with three strikeouts in 3.0 innings before the
rain delay; marked his shortest start this season and his shortest start since completing 3.0 innings on September 27, 2021 at Seattle with Oakland…Threw 45 pitches, 31 strikes.

CAREER AGAINST THE TWINS AND AL CENTRAL: Making his second career start against the Twins today…Did not factor in the decision in his only career start against the Twins on May 15, 2021 at Target Field with Oakland after allowing one run on five hits with two walks and two strikeouts in 6.2 innings… Threw 81 pitches, 59 strikes…Owns a 5-3 record with a 2.74 ERA (22 ER/72.1 IP) against the AL Central in 13 career games (12 starts)…Earned his first win of the season in his last start against the division on June 10 vs. Kansas City…Allowed one run on six hits with a season-high-tying five strikeouts (also: 4/8 vs. NYY) in a season-high 5.1 innings…Threw 72 pitches, 55 strikes.

SWIRVIN’ IRVIN: Has a 1-1 record with 3.95 ERA (6 ER/13.2 IP), two walks, and 14 strikeouts in his last five appearances (three starts) since May 20, compared to an 10-2 record with a 10.66 ERA (15 ER/12.2 IP) with eight walks and 13 strikeouts in his first three starts of the year.

HOME SWEET HOME: Making his fifth home start of the season today…Earned his first win as an Oriole at Oriole Park on June 10 vs. Kansas City…Allowed one run on six hits with a season-high-tying five strikeouts (also: 4/8 vs. NYY) in a season-high 5.1 innings…Left with one runner on, who was stranded…Marked his first big league start since April 13 vs. Oakland…Also earned his second career win at Oriole Park, joining April 23, 2021 with Oakland…Threw 72 pitches, 55 strikes…Owns a 1-1 record with a 5.82 ERA (11 ER/17.0 IP) in four home outings this season.

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