MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (41-42) at Baltimore Orioles (48-32)

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MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 3-4 through seven games on their nine-game, 10-day road-trip, going 2-1 in Detroit last weekend, 0-3 in Atlanta earlier this week, followed by a victory in Baltimore last night…today, Minnesota will continue the trip with the second of three at Baltimore through tomorrow…after tomorrow afternoon’s series/road-trip finale, the Twins will travel back home to finish the pre-ASG portion of their schedule with a six-game, seven-day homestand, which consists of three games against the Royals (July 3-5) and three games against the Orioles (July 7-9)…the Twins have gone 23-19 at home and 18-23 on the road.

YES, THAT RIGHT THERE. MORE OF THAT: The Twins beat the Orioles last night in Baltimore by a score of 8-1, snapping their three-game losing streak…it marked their largest margin of victory since a 16-3 win on May 14 vs. Chicago-NL…Pablo López (4-5) was the starter and winner, allowing one run on three hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with three walks and six strikeouts…the offense recorded 13 hits, six going for extra-bases…Byron Buxton led the club with a 2-for-4 night, including a three-run jimmy jack in the top of the fourth inning…Royce Lewis had three hits for the third time in his last nine games…Joey Gallo (14) and Max Kepler (11) each homered…Minnesota finished 3-for-9 with runners in scoring position.

ABOUT LAST NIGHT: Below is an offensive comparison from last night’s game vs. the three- game series at Atlanta earlier this week:
HITS R 2B HR AVG OBP SLG OPS BA w/RISP
ATL SERIES 17 3 4 1 .181 .250 .255 .505 .000 (0-for-23)
LAST NIGHT: 13 8 3 3 .325 .372 .625 .997 .333 (3-for-9)

TWINS AND O’s: The Twins and Orioles are playing each other for the second of six times in 2023…the Orioles will travel to Target Field for three games next Weekend…Twins vs. Baltimore since 2017 in box to the bottom right.

Since 2019, the Twins have hit 41 home runs against Baltimore for an average of 2.1 home runs-per-game (20 games)…2.1 HR/G leads all AL teams vs. the Orioles in that span.

The Twins are 37-17 vs. Baltimore since the start of 2014…that marks the most wins against Baltimore among non-American League East teams in that span.

Max Kepler is hitting .347 (33-for-95) with seven doubles, one triple, 10 home runs, 24 RBI, 12 walks, a .417 OBP and a 1.175 OPS in 26 career games against Baltimore…he is hitting .342 (13-for-38) with four doubles, three home runs, eight RBI, five walks, a .419 on-base percentage and a 1.103 OPS in 10 career games at Camden Yards.

Byron Buxton has hit safely in eight-straight games at Oriole Park, hitting .353 (12-for-34) with six doubles, two home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.095 OPS in that span.

Carlos Correa is hitting .350 (14-for-40) with five doubles, three home runs, 11 RBI and a 1.081 OPS in his last nine games at Baltimore.

Michael A. Taylor is hitting .306 (33-for-108) with four doubles, three home runs, 17 RBI, 10 walks, a .367 on-base percentage and a .793 OPS in 35 career games against Baltimore.

Christian Vázquez is hitting .293 (39-for-133) with nine doubles in 39 career games at Camden Yards…the 39 hits are his most in any opposing ballpark.

MAXING OUT: Max Kepler has hit four home runs in his last 10 games…in those 10, he has posted a .690 slugging percentage with a 1.033 OPS…last night’s home run was the 140th of
his career, one short of tying Michael Cuddyer for 13th on the Twins all-time list (since 1961):

TWIN HR TWIN HR TWIN HR
1) Harmon Killebrew……….475 8) Gary Gaetti ………………..201 15) Jacque Jones………… 132
2) Kent Hrbek………………..293 9) Brian Dozier……………….167 16) Eddie Rosario………. 119
3) Justin Morneau…………..221 10) Tom Brunansky…………163 17) Byron Buxton………. 112
4) Tony Oliva………………….220 11) Miguel Sanó……………..162 18) Roy Smalley…………. 110
5) Torii Hunter ……………….214 12) Joe Mauer ………………..143 19) Jason Kubel …………. 105
6) Bob Allison………………..211 13) Michael Cuddyer……….141 20) Jorge Polanco……… 103
7) Kirby Puckett……………..207 14) Max Kepler………………140 21) Corey Koskie………… 101

SERIES CONVERSATIONS: The Twins are seeking their 12th series victory this season…they are 11-12-3 in series play in 2023, going 7-4-2 at home and 4-8-1 on the road.

The Twins have gone 7-1-2 in their last 10 series vs. Baltimore, dating back to May of 2017…they are 3-1-1 at Camden Yards in that span.

Twins have won three of their last five road series (2-1 at HOU from 5/29-31, 0-3 at TB from 6/6-8, 2-1 at TOR from 6/9-11, 2-1 at DET from 6/23-25 & 0-3 at ATL from 6/26-28).

ROYCE RULES: Royce Lewis is hitting .421 (16-for-38) with one double, two home runs, six RBI, one walk, a .450 on-base percentage, a .605 slugging percentage and a 1.055 OPS in his last 10 games.

In 12 road games for the Twins this season, Lewis is hitting .408 (20-for-49) with a .982 OPS…in his last eight road games, he has recorded at least three hits four times (4 on 6/9 at TOR, 3 on 6/11 at TOR, 3 on 6/25 at DET & 3 on 6/30 at BAL).

Among all AL rookies with a minimum of 75 at-bats, Lewis ranks first in batting average (.333), runs created-per-27 (8.02) and OPS+ (134.7), second in OPS (.845) And wOBA (.368), and fourth in slugging (.484) and on-base percentage (.361).

IF IT WORKS…: After going 2-for-4 with a double and two runs scored last night, Carlos Correa is leading off today for the second-straight game and fifth time in his career…prior to last night, he made three starts from the leadoff spot came during a three-game stretch for Houston from April 22-24, 2021 vs. Los Angeles-AL…in four career games from that spot in the batting order, he is now 7-for-19 (.368) with five doubles, one home run, four RBI and seven runs scored

LAND OF 10,000 RAKES: The Twins have homered 107 times this season, fifth most in the AL and eighth most in baseball…Twins have gone 33-25 when homering at least once, 23-8 when homering at least twice and 11-2 when homering three times.

TWINS ML MONTHLYS: Triple-A St. Paul catcher/first baseman Chris Williams and High-A Cedar Rapids right-handed pitcher Cory Lewis have been named Twins minor league Player and Pitcher of the Month for June.

Williams, 26, played in 20 games for the Saints, hitting .352 (25-for-71) with one double, 10 home runs, 29 RBI, 17 walks, a .478 on-base percentage, a .789 slugging percentage and a 1.267 OPS…the Garden Grove, California native was selected by the Twins in the eighth round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft from Clemson University.

Lewis, 22, started four games between the Kernels and Low-A Fort Myers, combining to go 3-1, 0.57 ERA (15.2 IP, 1 ER) with seven walks, 21 strikeouts, a .146 opponent batting average and a .424 opponents OPS…the Fountain Valley, California native was selected by the Twins in the ninth round of the 2022 First-Year Player Draft from the University of California, Santa Barbara.

STARTING PITCHER – BAILEY OBER 17
2023: 4-4, 2.97 ERA CAREER: 9-10, 3.55 ERA

Making his 13th start of the season and fifth road start…also his 44th career start and appearance.

Facing the Orioles for the first time in his career…is 3-4, 4.12 ERA (83.0 IP, 38 ER) with 21 walks and 82 strikeouts in 17 career starts when facing new opponents.

Began the season with Triple-A St. Paul and was recalled when Kenta Maeda landed on the Injured List on April 29…since being inserted into the rotation, the Twins have gone 7-5 in his 12 starts.

Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft out of the College of Charleston.

LAST START: Did not factor into the decision despite recording a quality start on June 25 against Detroit at Comerica Park, a 6-3 Twins’ victory…pitched 6.0 innings and allowed three runs on five hits, issued one walk and struck out a season-high eight batters in his seventh quality start of the season…pitched 1-2-3 first and second innings before allowing a single and a double to start the third inning; then yielded a two-run double to Zach McKinstry and a go-ahead RBI single to Kerry Carpenter…retired nine of the final 11 batters he faced after the RBI single, including striking out the side in the fifth inning…relieved by Jordan Balazovic in the seventh inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 scoreless innings with one hit and six strikeouts…Royce Lewis scored the tying run in the seventh inning on a throwing error by Chasen Shreve…the Twins entered extra innings for the 11th time this season; Minnesota scored three runs on three singles by Lewis, Willi Castro and Christian Vázquez to improve to 8-3 in extra innings.

Among American League pitchers with at least 11 games started in 2023, Ober ranks eighth in ERA (2.97), sixth in WHIP (1.02), seventh in walks-per-9.0 innings (1.94), 11th in opponent batting average (.219) and 12th in walks-per-9.0 innings (4.40).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took the loss despite recording a quality start on June 20 vs. Boston at Target Field in a 10-4 Twins’ defeat…went 6.0 innings and allowed three runs on a season-high eight hits (2 HR), with no walks and four strikeouts…pitched opposite Kutter Crawford, who earned the win… allowed solo homers to centerfielder Adam Duvall and second baseman Christian Arroyo in the top of the fourth inning; marked the second time this season he allowed multiple homers in an inning (also, June 14 vs. Milwaukee – Brian Anderson and Luis Urías in the second inning)…allowed an RBI single to catcher Connor Wong in the top of the sixth inning…was relieved by Brent Headrick to start the top of the seventh with Minnesota trailing 3-0; Twins’ bullpen allowed seven runs as Minnesota fell in the second game of the four-game series.

Allowed multiple homers for the third time this year (also, 2 on May 11 vs. San Diego and 2 on June 14 vs. Milwaukee)…six of his eight home runs allowed this season have been solo homers, including all six in the three starts in which he has allowed multiple homers.

OBER ORNITHOLOGY: Facing the Orioles for the first time in his career…Baltimore will be the 18th team Ober has faced since his major league debut on May 18, 2021…in 17 career starts when facing a new opponent, Ober is 3-4, 4.12 ERA (83.0 IP, 38 ER) with 21 walks and 82 strikeouts…has only faced Adam Frazier and Ryan O’Hearn in previous starts…Frazier went 1-for-3 with an RBI single in Ober’s first start of 2022 vs. Seattle…O’Hearn also went 1-for-3 with two strikeouts on ay 27, 2022 as a member of the Kansas City Royals.

WINDS IN THE EAST: In three starts against American League East opponents this season (TOR, TB and BOS), Ober is 0-3 with a 4.41 ERA (16.1 IP, 8 ER), three walks, 18 strikeouts and a .254 (16-for63) opponent batting average…Twins have lost all three starts, including a 3-0 shutout loss on May 28 vs. Toronto…in seven career starts against the AL East, he is 1-5, 3.19 ERA (36.2 IP, 13 ER) with seven walks and 37 strikeouts; Twins have gone 2-5 in those starts.

Has not earned a win against an AL East opponent since September 24, 2021 vs. Toronto when he pitched 5.1 innings and allowed one run on four hits (1 HR), with no walks and six strikeouts…allowed his only run on a home run by Marcus Semien.

Owns the 15th-lowest ERA against the AL East since 2021 (min. 7 GS).

THE ROAD LESS TRAVELED: Ober is making his fifth road start of the season today…is 2-1, 2.59 ERA
(24.1 IP, 7 ER) with five walks and 27 strikeouts in four road starts this season; earned road victories
on May 5 at Cleveland and May 16 at Los Angeles-NL, took the loss on June 8 at Tampa Bay and
did not factor into the decision his last start at Detroit on June 25…his 2.59 ERA on the road is the
eighth-lowest road ERA in the American League (min. 4 GS)…is 2-3, 3.18 ERA (45.1 IP, 16 ER) with
10 walks and 39 strikeouts in eight home starts in 2023.
AIn 20 career road starts, Ober has gone 3-6 with a 3.49 ERA (100.2 IP, 39 ER), 18 walks and
97 strikeouts…is 6-4 with a 3.61 ERA (117.1 IP, 47 ER), 27 walks and 116 strikeouts in 23
career starts at Target Field.

LEFT LANE: Left-handed hitters are batting .208 (27-for-130) with 29 strikeouts and 11 walks against Ober after 12 starts this season…right-handed hitters are hitting .230 (29-for-126) with 37 strikeouts and four walks…righties went just 2-for-12 with one double and seven strikEouts against him in his last start on June 25 at Detroit…in his career, left-handed hitters are batting .253/.316/.409 with 87 strikeouts against Ober…righties are hitting .225/.248/.426 with 126 strikeouts off him.

Owns the 13th-lowest opponent batting average against left-handed hitters among American League pitchers with at least 12 starts this season…also has the fifth-lowest slugging percent- age (.323) and has the seventh-lowest OPS (.598) against lefties this year.

ARSENAL: Ober has used a four-pitch mix in his 12 starts of the 2023 season, per Baseball Savant… mostly uses his slider against righties while relying on his changeup and curveball against lefties… recorded five of his eight strikeouts with his four-seam fastball in his last start on June 25 at Detroit… here’s a look at his repertoire:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (91.4)………. 45.6% (492 pitches, 221/271)… .243 (26-for-107), 7 2B, 4 HR, 30 K
Changeup (83.6)………………… 25.2% (272 pitches, 85/187)…… .181 (13-for-72), 2 2B, 1 3B, 17 K
Slider (81.4)………………………. 21.0% (227 pitches, 194/33)…… .250 (14-for-56), 4 2B, 4 HR, 15 K
Curveball (77.9)……………………. 8.2% (89 pitches, 16/73)…………………. .143 (3-for-21), 1 2B, 4 K

His .181 opponent batting average against his changeup is the second lowest on the Twins (Jovani Moran – .135) and the 13th lowest in baseball (min. 50 plate appearances)…his .143 opponent batting average on his curveball is the second lowest on the Twins (Jhoan Duran – .121) and the 19th lowest in baseball (min. 20 plate appearances).

His .201 opponent batting average across all of his breaking pitches (changeup, slider and curveball) is tied for 11th lowest in the American League (min. 150 plate appearances).

THE CHASE: According to Baseball Savant, Ober owns a 34.0 chase percentage this season, ranking in the 91st percentile in baseball…ranks third on the Twins’ pitching staff in chase percentage, trailing Joe Ryan (37.5) and Pablo López (36.0)…has a 33.1 chase percentage in his career…also has a 53.1 swing percentage this season, a career high.

EXTENSION # 6-9: Standing six feet, nine inches tall, Ober is tied with Aaron Slegers (2017-18) and Alex Meyer (2015-16) as the second-tallest players to pitch for the Twins in franchise history (since 1901), trailing only Jon Rauch (6-11, 2009-10)…on average this season, Ober has released his pitches 7.4 feet off the mound, the sixth-longest extension in baseball, Which puts him in the 99th percentile according to Baseball Savant…teammate Pablo López also has one of the longest extensions in baseball (7.2 feet), ranking in the 96th percentile.

ACROSS THE RIVER: In his four starts with Triple-A St. Paul this season, Ober went 2-1, 2.55 ERA (17.2 IP, 5 ER) with six walks and 22 strikeouts…in his last start with the Saints on April 18, earned the win in a 6-0 St. Paul victory vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre…pitched 5.0 scoreless innings, allowed three hits, walked one batter and fanned six.

WALK IT OUT: Despite owning a career-high 5.5 walk percentage this season, Ober still ranks in the 89th percentile across baseball and second on the Twins pitching staff, trailing Joe Ryan (3.9).

BALTIMORE ORIOLES NOTES:

RAIN, RAIN, GO AWAY: The Orioles fell to the Twins in last night’s series opener, 8-1… Have lost three straight games for the second time this season, along with a three-game skid from May 6-8…Have dropped three straight home games for the second time this year, along with May 18-27…The start of the game was delayed 1 hour, 26 minutes due to inclement weather.

Nick Vespi made his 2023 debut and worked a career-high 3.0 shutout innings, allowing three hits with three strikeouts.

Austin Hays singled in the second and sixth innings to collect his team-leading 27th multi-hit game of the season, tied for fifth in the majors.

Adley Rutschman launched his 11th homer of the year to put the O’s on the board in the sixth inning; has reached base safely 130 times this season (78 H, 52 BB), fifth-most in the AL.

WRAPPING UP JUNE: The Orioles finished the month of June with a 13-11 record…Their .542 winning percentage last month ranked third in the AL and 10th in MLB…The only AL teams with a better winning percentage in June were the Rays (.630, 17-10) and Blue Jays (.593, 16-11)…Last year, the Orioles went 14-12 in June to record their first winning month since August 2017…The Birds went 16-9 in July 2022, their best monthly winning percentage of the season.

Austin Hays ranked among AL leaders for the month in doubles (T-4th, 9) and hits (T-6th, 31).

Jorge Mateo ranked among AL leaders for the month in stolen bases (T-6th, 6).

Félix Bautista ranked among AL leaders for the month in saves (T-2nd, 7).

RAKING ROOKIE: In the month of June, Gunnar Henderson led AL rookies in home runs (6), RBI (16), slugging (.640), and OPS (.994)…He ranked among AL rookie leaders for the month in total bases (2nd, 48), extra-base hits (T-2nd, 11), triples (T-2nd, 1), average (3rd, .320), on-base percentage (6th, .354), hits (T-6th, 24), runs (T-5th, 10), stolen bases (T-5th, 3), and doubles (T-8th, 4)…His 93.1 mph average exit velocity for the month led all rookies and ranked eighth in the AL (min. 75 AB)…Named the AL Player of the Week for the week of June 5-11, his first career weekly award and the first Orioles winner since Ryan Mountcastle in June 2021.

HOME COOKING: The O’s are wrapping up a nine-game, 10-day homestand this weekend… After going 2-1 against the Mariners last weekend and 1-2 against the Reds earlier this week, the Orioles host the Twins through tomorrow.

Baltimore has won eight of the last 13 games at Oriole Park since June 9.

The O’s are 25-17 (.595) in Baltimore this year, the third-best home record in the AL and sixth-best in MLB.

MID-TERMS: The Orioles will play their 81st game of the season today, marking the halfway point of the season…Last year, the O’s were 37-44 and in last place in the AL East, 21.5 games behind the Yankees, and 6.5 games behind the Rays for the final Wild Card spot at the halfway mark…Entering today, the Orioles are 48-32 and in second place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind the Rays, and are leading the Wild Card with a 4.0-game cushion on the Yankees.

The O’s have slashed .252/.321/.421 (679-for-2697) this season compared to .229/.297/.383 (627-for-2736) through 81 games last year; the team has scored 60 more runs (389 to 329), have 87 more total bases (1135 to 1048), and 12 more home runs (96 to 84) this season compared to the midpoint last year.

AGAINST THE TWINS: The Orioles and Twins are meeting for the first time this season with the current three-game set…The O’s will travel to Minnesota next weekend to play at Target Field from July 7-9…Baltimore lost 16 straight games to the Twins from March 31, 2018 to May 31, 2021…The 16-game losing skid is the longest by the O’s against Minnesota since the moved to the Twin Cities in 1961 and the third-longest against a single opponent in team history (since 1954).

The O’s hit 11 home runs in the seven games against the Twins last season; nine were solo shots.

HAYS OF OUR LIVES: Austin Hays leads the AL (see box at right) and ranks fourth in MLB with a .316 batting average…He also ranks among AL leaders in doubles (T-4th, 22), OPS (7th, .855), slugging percentage (8th, .498), and hits (T-7th, 87) …Only one Oriole has ever won a batting title: Orioles Legend and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, who hit .316 in 1966…Hanser Alberto, who finished with a .305 batting average in 2019, is the only qualified Oriole in the last 14 seasons to finish the year with a batting average of at least .300.

No player has ever led the AL in batting average at the All-Star Break and not been an All-Star, according to the Elias Sports Bureau; there have been six such instances in the NL, most recently Hunter Pence in 2007 and Larry Walker in 2002.

TONY’S TATERS: Anthony Santander is slashing .289/.347/.537 (58-for-201) with 12 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, 32 runs scored, 36 RBI, 16 walks, two hit-by-pitches, and one stolen base in 51 games since the start of May…During that time, he ranks among AL leaders in total bases (T-4th, 108), home runs (T-5th), extra-base hits (T-5th, 25), RBI (T-5th), slugging percentage (6th), and OPS (6th, .884)…He homered in three straight games from June 23-25 for the second time in his career (also: 8/8-11/21) and is the second Oriole to homer in three straight games this season, joining Gunnar Henderson from June 10-13.

His 14 home runs lead the O’s and rank fourth among MLB switch hitters.

ROSTER MOVES: The Orioles today selected the contract of right-handed pitcher Chris Vallimont from Triple-A Norfolk…He will wear No. 75 and his first appearance will be his Major League debut…In corresponding moves, left-handed pitcher Bruce Zimmermann was optioned to the Tides and right-handed pitcher Mychal Givens was transferred to the 60-day Injured List with right shoulder inflammation.

STARTING PITCHER – #39 KYLE BRADSON RHP
QUICK HITS: Scheduled to make his 15th start of the season, seventh at home, and second career start against the Twins today…Made 23 starts in his rookie season with the Orioles in 2022…Went 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA (64 ER/117.2 IP) with 111 strikeouts to 46 walks…Was one of 13 O’s players (7 pitchers) to make their debut in 2022…Started on the bump for Adley Rutschman’s debut on May 21 vs. Tampa Bay…Tossed 16.0 consecutive scoreless innings across four starts from August 26 to September 6…Acquired by the Orioles along with RHP Kyle Brnovich, RHP Zach Peek, and RHP Isaac Mattson from Los Angeles-AL in exchange for RHP Dylan Bundy on December 4, 2019…Originally drafted by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of New Mexico State…Teammates at NMSU with INF Joey Ortiz.

LAST TIME OUT: Earned the win in his last start on June 25 vs. Seattle, allowing two runs on two hits (1 HR) with two walks and seven strikeouts in a season-high- Tying 7.0 innings (also: 6/14 vs. TOR)…Retired 12 batters in a row before issuing a two-out walk to Jarred Kelenic in the seventh; retired 15 of the final 17 batters he faced after surrendering a home run to Cal Raleigh in the second…Has won consecutive starts for the first time this season…Marked his sixth quality start, matching his season total from 2022…Threw a season-high 103 pitches, 69 strikes.

SHIFTING SPEEDS: Bradish is holding opposing hitters to a .177/.216/.260 (17-for96) slash line against his slider this season, meaning that he has recorded more
strikeouts (39) with his primary pitch than hits allowed…In 2022, opposing batters slashed .212/.278/.343 against the off-speed pitch.

HITTING HIS STRIDE: Bradish has pitched to a 3-2 record with a 3.14 ERA (20 ER/57.1 IP) and five quality starts in his last 10 outings since May 6…Has allowed three earned runs-or-fewer in nine of those games…Tossed a season-high 10 strikeouts on June 8 at Milwaukee…Did not allow a home run in a career-high-tying three straight starts from May 28 to June 8 (also: 10/2/22-4/19/23)…Completed 7.0 innings in two of those outings (6/14 vs. TOR & 6/25 vs. SEA).

LIMITING THE DAMAGE: Bradish has surrendered one home run-or-fewer in each of his last 29 starts since June 13, 2022; the O’s own an 18-11 edge in those games…
Marks the third-longest active streak among MLB starting pitchers and longest by an O’s starter since Ubaldo Jiménez accomplished the feat in 36 straight starts
from July 23, 2015 to September 10, 2016.

HOME SWEET HOME: Has gone 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA (12 ER/35.2 IP) through his first six starts at Oriole Park this season…Allowed a season-high seven runs in his first home start of the campaign on April 25 vs. Boston but has pitched to a 1.35 ERA (5 ER/33.1 IP) in his last five assignments since, logging a quality start in each of those outings…Owns a 3-7 record with a 4.29 ERA (47 ER/98.2 IP) in 18 career starts at Oriole Park.