Monday, December 23, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (40-39) at Atlanta Braves (50-27)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

DA ART OF STORYTELLIN’: After finishing their 10-game homestand with a record of 5-5 (2-0 vs. Milwaukee, 1-3 vs. Detroit and 2-2 vs. Boston), the Twins began their nine-game, 10-day road-trip with a series win in Detroit this weekend, winning games one and three… tonight, Minnesota will continue the trip with the first of three in Atlanta through Wednesday afternoon…after this series, they will enjoy an off-day in Baltimore on Thursday then play three games against the Orioles over the weekend…the Twins have gone 23-19 at home and 17-20 on the road.

The Twins are on game 14 of a 16 games in 16 days stretch, their next off-day being in Baltimore on Thursday…the Twins have 12 games in 14 days leading up to the All-Star Break (July 10-13).

TWINS PUT BOWTIE ON DETROIT: The Twins beat the Tigers yesterday afternoon at Comerica Park by a score of 6-3 in 10 innings, making them 8-3 in extras this season…the win made them 11-11-3 in series play (4-7-1 on the road)…Bailey Ober was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing three runs on five hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with one walk and a season-high eight strikeouts — the second most of his career (10 on 9/27/22 vs. CWS)…five relievers (Balazovic, Headrick, Stewart, Jax & Duran) combined to pitch 4.0 scoreless innings with one hit allowed and six strikeouts…the offense recorded 12 hits, three from Royce Lewis (all singles)…they also went 5-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

RETURN OF THE G: Below are Sonny Gray’s ranks among AL starters in a few notable categories:

ERA ER (75.0 IP) SLG HR (75.0 IP) FIP WAR
McClanahan – 2.23 Gray – 23 Ryan – .310 Gray – 2 Gray – 2.67 Valdez – 3.3
Valdez – 2.27 McClanahan – 23 Valdez – .318 Sandoval – 6 Gausman – 2.67 Gausman – 3.2
Gray – 2.56 Valdez – 25 Ohtani – .324 Valdez – 6 Valdez – 2.68 Eovaldi – 3.0
Cole – 2.78 J. Gray – 26 Gray – .329 Ryan – 8 Ryan – 2.76 Ryan – 2.9
Eovaldi – 2.82 Castillo – 28 J.Gray – .346 Eovaldi/Gibson -8 Eovaldi – 3.05 Gray – 2.6

I LIKE THE WAY YOU MOVE: Despite going 3-9, 4.47 ERA (131.0 IP, 65 ER) in 23 games this month, Twins starters still rank near the top of several categories among all MLB teams:

INNINGS ERA BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
MIN – 445.0 TB – 3.35 TB – .226 SEA – 2.15 MIN – 3.44 SEA – 1.13 MIN – 476 TB – .657
HOU – 443.1 TEX – 3.44 MIN – .232 MIN – 2.33 TB – 3.56 MIN – 1.14 CWS – 465 MIN – .665
TEX – 439.0 HOU – 3.49 MIA – .234 PHI – 2.56 MIA – 3.64 TB – 1.16 MIA – 445 SEA – .674
TOR – 435.1 MIN – 3.68 TEX – .236 SF – 2.61 SEA – 3.73 TEX – 1.17 TOR – 437 MIA – .688
CWS – 424.1 CHC – 3.77 SEA – .236 LAD – 2.66 PHI – 3.79 PHI – 1.20 HOU – 426 TEX – .688

COR-HEY YA!: Carlos Correa has recorded an OPS of .836 (.292 OBP / .544 SLG) in his last 17 games, including three doubles, one triple, five home runs and 13 RBI in that span… additionally, Correa has reached safely in 11-straight Interleague games (.340 OBP).

ATLiens: The Twins and Braves are playing each other in the regular season for the 20th, 21st and 22nd times in their history this week and first time since August 5-7, 2019 at Target Field as the Twins won the first game but lost games two and three…the Twins are 8-11 all-time against the Braves in the regular season, going 6-8 in Minnesota and 2-3 in Georgia.

This marks the Twins’ first time at Truist Park and just the third time playing in the regular season at Atlanta, the previous two being at Turner Field in 2013 (0-3) and 2016 (2-0).

ROSIES: Eddie Rosario was selected by the Twins in the fourth round of the 2010 First-Year Player Draft…Rosie played six seasons with the Twins from 2015-20, hitting .277 (738-for2661) with 134 doubles, 22 triples, 119 home runs, 388 RBI, 400 runs scored and a .788 OPS in 697 games…he was one of the leaders of the 2019 Bomba Squad, hitting a career-high 32 home runs that season, with 109 RBI…he still ranks 16th on the Twins all-time list (since 1961) with 119 home runs; he also ranks ninth on the club’s all-time outfield assists list with 53…he ranks second on the club’s all-time list in games played in leftfield with 581, trailing Dan Gladden (621).

INTERLEAGUE PLAYER’S BALL: The Twins have gone 10-10 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 vs. Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco and 2-0 vs. Milwaukee…10 wins already passes their 2022 total of eight…after this series, the Twins’ next NL opponent will be the Cardinals for three games at Busch Stadium from August 1-3.

SPEAKERBUXXX: Byron Buxton enters today having gone 0-for-9 in his last three games after going 5-for-11 with one double, three home runs and four RBI in his previous three games leading up to this current stretch…the Twins are 20-12 when Buck gets at least one hit…Buck grew up in Baxley, GA and attended Appling County High School, which is approximately 215 miles south-east of Truist Park.

EL-LEW-VATORS (ME & YOU): Royce Lewis has reached base safely in a career-best 10-straight games, hitting .371 (13-for-35) with one double, two home runs, five RBI, three walks, a .421 on-base percentage, a .571 slugging percentage and a .992 OPS in that span…in nine road games for the Twins this season, he is hitting .432 (16-for-37) with a 1.069 OPS.

Among all rookies in baseball with a minimum of 75 at-bats, Lewis ranks first in batting average (.333), second in runs created-per-27 (8.23), fifth in OPS (.863) and OPS+ (139.2), sixth in slugging (.506) and wOBA (.373), and ninth in on-base percentage (.357).

B.O.B.: The Twins have homered 103 times this season, fourth most in the AL and seventh most in baseball (Braves rank first with 139)… the Twins have 19 different players with a home run this season, the most in baseball…next are the Yankees and Brewers, both with 18… the most players to homer in one season for the Twins was 21, in 2004 and 2022.

AINT NOBODY DOPE AS ME, I’M JUST SOL FRESH, SOL CLEAN: Donovan Solano hit his third home run of the season yesterday, all three coming in his last 13 games…in 22 games this month, Solano has posted a .425 on-base percentage, reaching 34 times in 80 plate appearances (18 hits, 14 walks, 2 HBP)…his June OBP ranks third in the AL (minimum 50 at-bats), trailing Shohei Ohtani (.452) and Corey Seager (.441)…he has also drove in 10 runs in June and posted a .909 OPS.

COOLER THAN A POLAR BEAR’S TOENAILS: Edouard Julien went 2-for-4 with a walk yesterday afternoon, giving him nine multi-hit games in 32 total chances…it also marked his fifth time this season reaching base three times in one game…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on June 10, Julien is hitting .289 (13-for-45) with six doubles, six walks, a .373 on-base percentage and a .795 OPS in 13 games.

GASOLINE DREAMS: Jhoan Duran topped out at 103.0 mph yesterday afternoon, giving him 33 pitches this season at 103.0-or-faster…on the season, he has thrown 231 of his 483 pitches at 100-plus mph, trailing Jordan Hicks (321) for most in baseball…he has averaged 101.9 mph on his fastball this season (highest in MLB), 88.0 mph on his curveball (2nd highest in MLB) and 98.8 mph on his splitter (1st in MLB)…he earned his 11th save yesterday and is one of three pitchers in baseball with at least 10 saves and an ERA under 1.50, joining Felix Bautista and Josh Hader.

TWO DOPE BOYZ: High-A Cedar Rapids infielder Tanner Schobel has been named Midwest League Player of the Week and Low-A Fort Myers right-handed pitcher C.J. Culpepper has been named Florida State League Pitcher of the Week.

Schobel played in five games for the Kernels, hitting .421 (8-for-19) with four home runs, eight RBI, three walks and a 1.658 OPS.

Culpepper made one start on Sunday at Tampa, pitching 6.0 shutout innings, with one hit allowed, no walks and five strikeouts.

STARTING PITCHER – SONNY GRAY #54
2023: 4-1, 2.56 ERA CAREER: 94-78, 3.51 ERA

Owns the lowest FIP (2.67) among all qualified American League pitchers…also ranks third in ERA (2.56) and fifth in WAR (2.6).

Making his 2634d career appearance and 254th career start…also his 16th start/appearance this season.

Looking for his first career win against Atlanta…is 0-2, 3.23 ERA (30.2 IP, 11 ER) with nine walks and 33 strikeouts in his five previous starts vs. the Braves.

Acquired by the Twins on March 13, 2022 in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, along with right-handed pitcher Francis Peguero, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chase Petty

LAST TIME OUT: Took his third-consecutive no-decision in his last start on June 21 vs. Boston at Target Field…pitched 5.0 innings and allowed three runs on six hits (1 HR), with two walks and five strikeouts in a 10-inning 5-4 Twins’ victory…tossed 92 pitches, his most since May 23 vs. San Francisco when he threw 105 pitches…yielded an RBI double to infielder Rafael Devers in the top of the first inning; marked the first run he has allowed in the first inning since April 18 at Boston…allowed his second home run of the season to designated hitter Justin Turner in the third inning…permitted an RBI single in the fifth inning to Turner for his final run…relieved by Brock Stewart who combined with Griffin Jax to pitch scoreless sixth and seventh innings…Jhoan Duran entered in the eighth inning and allowed a game-tying RBI double to Triston Casas…the Twins entered extra innings and walked off in the 10th inning via an RBI single by Kyle Farmer, his second-walk off plate appearance of the season.

Gray has not earned a win in his last nine starts, last earning a victory on April 30 vs. Kansas City; the nine-start streak without a win is the fourth longest of his career.

TWO STARTS AGO: Did not factor into the decision on June 15 vs. Detroit at Target Field…pitched a season-low-tying 4.0 innings and allowed two runs on three hits, with a season-high-tying four walks and three strikeouts in an 8-4 Twins’ defeat…marked his shortest start since also throwing 4.0 innings on May 17 at Los Angeles-NL…issued four walks for the first time since his first start of the year on April 1 at Kansas City, which was also the last time he walked more batters than he struck out (4 BB, 1 K)…yielded an RBI single to outfielder Matt Vierling in the second inning…escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam with just one run allowed in the fourth inning, as shortstop Javier Báez scored on a double play groundout by designated hitter Miguel Cabrera…relieved in the fifth inning by Jovani Moran who allowed three runs on three hits (a two-run triple by Javier Báez and an RBI groundout by Eric Haase)…Jorge López entered in the eighth inning, went back on the mound for the ninth and allowed three runs on two-consecutive RBI doubles to Spencer Torkelson and Zack Short. AGAINST ATLANTA: Gray is facing the Braves for the sixth time in his career, going 0-2, 3.23 ERA (30.2 IP, 11 ER) with nine walks and 33 strikeouts in his five previous appearances…last faced Atlanta on August 10, 2021 at Truist Park; did not factor into the decision in the 3-2 Cincinnati defeat after pitching 5.0 innings and allowing two runs on three hits (1 HR), issuing three walks and striking out eight batters…his lone blemish was a game-tying two-run home run to leftfield by Adam Duvall in the fourth inning…retired 11 of the first 15 batters he faced before the home run…relieved by Heath Hembree in the sixth inning, who allowed two base runners…replaced by Amir Garrett who issued a game-winning bases-loaded walk.

Has never earned a win against the Braves and has not been handed a decision since June 30, 2017.

Tonight’s start will be Gray’s first start against a National League East opponent since becoming a Twin…in 24 career appearances against the NL East, Gray is 8-4, 3.42 ERA (137.0 IP, 52 ER) with 47 walks and 132 strikeouts…tied for the 23rd-fewest walks issued against the NL East since 2014 (min. 135.0 IP).

BACK TO THE ROAD: Gray is making his seventh road start of the season tonight; is 1-0, 3.00 ERA (30.0 IP, 10 ER) with 17 walks and 26 strikeouts in his six prior road outings…is 5-3, 3.40 ERA (82.0 IP, 31 ER) with 28 walks and 65 strikeouts in 17 road starts since becoming a Twin.

Currently holds the 12th-lowest road ERA in the American League this season (min. 30.0 IP).

Making his third career start at Truist Park…is 0-0, 1.50 ERA (12.0 IP, 2 ER) with seven walks and 18 strikeouts in his two previous appearances.

THE ARSENAL: Gray is currently using a six-pitch mix, per Baseball Savant…currently uses his fastball the most at 22.4 percent…threw 36 fastballs in his last start on June 21, the most he has tossed so far this season…allowed his second home run of the season on a sinker…primarily uses his curveball (181 pitches) and changeup (89 pitches) against lefties and his cutter (177 pitches), sinker (219 pitches) and sweeper (191 pitches) against righties…here’s a look at his repertoire so far:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.7)………….22.4% (302 pitches, 102/200)………….. .319 (23-for-72), 5 2B, 3 K
Curveball (79.1)…………………….20.0% (270 pitches, 89/181)…. .276 (16-for-58), 5 2B, 1 HR, 15 K
Sinker (92.6)………………………………18.8% (253 pitches, 219/34)… .231 (12-for-52), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 22 K
Cutter (87.5) …………………………16.6% (224 pitches, 177/47)…………….. .231 (9-for-39), 3 2B, 7 K
Sweeper (83.7)………………………15.4% (208 pitches, 191/17)…………. .149 (10-for-67), 2 2B, 35 K
Changeup (87.3)……………………….6.8% (91 pitches, 2/89)………… .158 (3-for-19), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 K

Owns the lowest opponent batting average against a sweeper among American League pitchers (min. 50 PA), ranks eighth in all of baseball…also owns the fourth-lowest opponent batting average against a changeup in the AL, eighth-lowest in all of baseball (min. 1250 pitches).

His 35 strikeouts on his sweeper are the third most in the majors, behind LAA’s Shohei Ohtani (54) and COL’s Justin Lawrence (37).

A Currently, Gray’s fastball has a 2542 spin rate, placing him in the 97th percentile according to Baseball Savant…marks the highest fastball spin rate of his career…has the highest fastball spin rate on the Twins staff.

O THE RIGHT: Gray has seen more success against right-handed hitters as opposed to left-handed hitters this season…Gray has held righties to a .225 (38-for-169) batting average with 59 strikeouts as opposed to lefties who are batting .254 (35-for-138) with 25 strikeouts…since becoming a Twin, lefties are slashing .223/.269/.334 against him while righties are batting .236/.320/.346. A0wns the 13th-most strikeouts against righties among qualified American League pitchers.

TIMER VIOLATIONS: In Statcast’s pitch timer violation leaderboard, Gray is tied for the third-most violations this season at six; all violations for Gray have been pitcher violations… averages 226 pitches-per-violation

ATLANTA BRAVES NOTES:

No team release available.

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