Monday, December 23, 2024
Wager-Tracker: All Sports Betting Log

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (31-32) at Toronto Blue Jays (36-28)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 0-3 through three games on their current six-game road-trip after suffering a sweep at the hands of the Rays over the last three days…tonight, the Twins will continue the trip with the first of three at Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays through the weekend…the Twins have gone 18-14 at home and 13-18 on the road.

Twins have lost a season-long five-straight games, their longest since also dropping five-straight from September 19-23, 2022…last time they lost at least six-straight was August 20-26, 2022 (6)…the club’s last victory came last Friday night at Target Field, a 1-0 win over the Guardians.

Yesterday’s loss moved the Twins to their low-water mark of one game under .500, marking the first time they have dipped below .500 since ending the 2022 season 78-84 (.481).

TWINS GET SWEPT OUT OF ST. PETE: The Twins lost to the Rays yesterday afternoon at Tropicana Field by a score of 4-2, suffering their first three-game sweep of the season…Bailey Ober (3-3) was the starter and loser, allowing four runs on three hits in 5.1 innings pitched, three of the runs coming on three consecutive pitches in the fourth inning (BB, 3B, HR)…the offense recorded six hits, two coming via home runs by Carlos Correa (7) and Michael A. Taylor (8)… Minnesota did not draw a walk for the second time this season (also April 15 at New York-AL).

ROSTER MOVE: The Twins have placed left-handed pitcher Caleb Thielbar on the 15-day Injured List (retroactive to June 6) with a right oblique strain…Thielbar, who was reinstated from the IL on June 4 after missing 29 games with the same injury, made one relief appearance for the Twins the day the was reinstated vs. Cleveland, pitching 0.1 inning with one hit allowed, while throwing 10 pitches…to replace Thielbar on the 26-man roster, the Twins have recalled right-handed pitcher Josh Winder from Triple-A St. Paul…Winder recently appeared in nine games for the Saints from May 7-June 3, going 2-1, 6.60 ERA (15.0 IP, 11 ER), two saves, 11 walks and 16 strikeouts…he made one appearance for the Twins this season on April 30 vs. Kansas City, allowing two runs on three hits in 0.2 innings pitched, with one walk and one strikeout.

SHADES OF GRAY: Below are Sonny Gray’s ranks among AL starters in a few notable categories:
ERA ER (50.0 IP) SLG HR (50.0 IP) FIP WAR
McClanahan – 2.02 Ober – 15 Ryan – .308 Gray – 1 Gausman – 2.27 Gausman – 3.2
Rodriguez – 2.13 Gray – 16 Gray – .310 Eovaldi – 3 Gray – 2.41 Eovaldi – 3.0
Gray – 2.15 Rodriguez – 16 Rodriguez – .311 Ober – 4 Eovaldi – 2.43 Gray – 2.5
Eovaldi – 2.24 McClanahan – 17 Ohtani – .321 Sandoval – 4 Ryan – 2.74 Valdez – 2.5
J. Gray – 2.32 2 Tied – 19 Eovaldi – .324 3 tied – 5 Castillo – 2.81 Ryan – 2.3

BLUEBIRDS: The Twins and Blue Jays are playing each other for the fourth of six scheduled meetings this season…these two played a three-game series at Target Field two weeks ago from May 26-28 as the Twins won just the middle of the three games…entering this season, the Twins have won the season series over Toronto four-straight seasons (4-3 in 2017, 4-2 in 2018, 4-3 in 2019 and 4-3 in 2022)…Minnesota will have to sweep to keep the streak alive.

The Twins have gone just 34-51 vs. the Jays since 2010…from 2010-16 they were 14-34, but have gone 20-17 since 2017.

Carlos Correa is hitting .309 (29-for-94) with four doubles, six home runs, 19 RBI and a .929 OPS in 24 career regular season games vs. the Jays…has reached safely in nine straight vs. Toronto and in 22 of his 24 career games.

Jorge Polanco is hitting .299 (41-for-137) with nine doubles, five home runs, 17 RBI, 17 walks and an .851 OPS in 35 career games vs. the Jays…he has reached safely in nine straight vs. Toronto…Polo’s .299 average is his third-best vs. any AL opponent (Seattle – .317 and Houston – .322).

LET’S GET IN ON-TARIO: Twins are 52-79 all-time at Rogers Centre…they have won 10 of their last 13 games in Toronto…they won their last series here from June 3-5, 2022…Minnesota is 6-3 at Rogers under Rocco Baldelli.

The Twins hit eight home runs in their last series here…in fact, they have homered in 14-straight games at Rogers Centre, hitting 31 total homers in those 14…it marks the longest homer steak in an opposing ballpark for the Twins since homering in 15 straight at Progressive Field from August 26, 2020-June 29, 2022…full list to the right.

Carlos Correa is hitting .394 (13-for-33) with two doubles, three home runs, 12 RBI, a .459 on-base percentage, a .727 slugging percentage and a 1.187 OPS in eight career regular season games at Rogers Centre…his OPS and average are his most in any AL ballpark…he has reached base in all eight games here…one of his career-high two-homer games occurred in this ballpark (7/9/17)…one of his career-high five-RBI games came here on July 9, 2017.

Jorge Polanco is hitting .366 (26-for-71) with six doubles, four home runs, 10 RBI, a .423 on-base percentage, a .620 slugging percentage and a 1.043 OPS in 17 career games at Rogers Centre…his OPS here is his highest of any AL park…one of his two career-high five-hit games came here on May 8, 2019.

DON’T TAKE OFFENSE: The Twins have scored seven runs in their last six games…in those six games, they are hitting .172 (32-for-186) with nine doubles, four home runs (Polanco – 6/3 vs. CLE, Castro – 6/4 vs. CLE, Correa – 6/8 at TB, Taylor – 6/8 at TB), 13 walks and a .523 OPS.

THE LEFTORIUM: Tonight marks the 12th time this season Minnesota has faced a lefty starter…Twins are 5-6 when a left-hander is the opposing starter…the last lefty starter to face the Twins was Logan Allen on June 3 as the Twins lost 4-2 to the Guardians…the Twins’ last win over a left-handed starter was on May 20 at Los Angeles-AL, a 6-2 victory over Patrick Sandoval.

The Twins have the fifth-fewest at-bats in baseball vs. left-handed pitching at just 442…also the third-fewest hits with 99.

Twins are slashing .224/.302/.378 with 15 homers vs. lefties, compared to .230/.313/.400 with 65 homers vs. righties.

Notables vs. lefties this season: Jorge Polanco is hitting .320 (8-for-25) with a .960 OPS…Kyle Farmer is hitting .310 (9-for-29) with a .364 OBP…Donovan Solano is hitting .320 (16-for-50) with a .358 OBP.

Carlos Correa is hitting .294 (5-for-17) with two doubles, one home run, four walks, a .429 on-base percentage and a 1.017 OPS in his last 10 games vs. left-handed pitching.

SMART ALEX: Alex Kirilloff has reached base safely in 24 of his last 45 plate appearances since May 27, posting an on-base percentage of .533 in that span…since that date, he has 12 hits, 10 walks and two hit-by-pitch…in 29 games for the Twins, he has posted a .440
on-base percentage, which leads the AL among players with a minimum of 100 plate appearances.

HOMECOMING KING: Paul Molitor is making his 2023 radio debut during this roadtrip for the Treasure Island Baseball Network…Mollie played three seasons for the Blue Jays from 1993-95, hitting .315 (508-for-1615) with 98 doubles, 11 triples, 51 home runs, 246 RBI, 270 runs scored and 54 stolen bases (4 caught stealing) in 405 games…he was named AL All-Star in 1993 and ’94, Silver Slugger in ’93 and AL MVP runner-up in ’93 (Frank Thomas)…he led the AL in plate appearances (725) and hits (211) in 1993 and games (115) in 1994…he hit .447 (21-for-47) in 12 games during the 1993 postseason…he hit .500 (12-for-24) with two doubles, two triples, two home runs, eight RBI and 10 runs scored in the World Series and was named MVP.

STARTING PITCHER – SONNY GRAY 54
2023: 4-1, 2.15 ERA CAREER: 94-78, 3.50 ERA

Owns the second-lowest FIP (2.15) among all qualified American League pitchers…also ranks third in ERA (2.15) and fourth in WAR (2.5).

Making his 260th career appearance and 251st career start…also his 13th start/appearance this season.

Facing Toronto for the first time this season and 15th in his career; is 4-4, 2.99 ERA (75.1 IP, 25 ER) with 41 walks and 67 strikeouts…looking for his first win against the Blue Jays since September 23, 2017.

Making his sixth start on the road this season; is 5-3, 3.39 ERA (77.0 IP, 29 ER) with 26 walks and 60 strikeouts in 16 road starts since joining the Twins.

Acquired by the Twins on March 13, 2022 in a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, along with right-handed pitcher Francis Peguero, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chase Petty.

LAST TIME OUT: Took his first loss of the season on June 3 vs. Cleveland and was handed his first decision since April 30 vs. Kansas City…pitched 6.2 innings and allowed three runs on 10 hits, with no walks and two strikeouts…outfielder Will Brennan drove in all three runs against Gray, on an RBI fielder’s choice in the second inning and a two-run home run in the seventh…marked his first home run allowed this season and snapped the longest homerless start streak in Twins’ history (since 1961, 11 starts)…marked the fourth time in his career allowing 10-or-more hits (10 on August 6, 2014 vs. Tampa Bay, 11 on April 17, 2015 at Kansas City and 11 on May 3, 2016 vs. Seattle)…relieved by Jovani Moran in the seventh inning after Gray allowed two consecutive single to Steven Kwan and Tyler Freeman; Moran pitched 1.0 scoreless inning…Jorge López entered in the eighth inning and allowed a home run to Steven Kwan in the ninth.

Marked the first time a Twin allowed 10-or-more hits and three-or-fewer earned runs since José Berríos on July 1, 2021 at Chicago-AL.

TWO STARTS AGO: Did not factor into the decision against the Houston Astros on May 29 at Minute Maid Park, opposite J.P. France…pitched 6.0-plus innings and allowed three runs (2 ER) on four hits, with two walks and three strikeouts…allowed his first run on a groundball double play to outfielder Kyle Tucker in the fourth inning…lifted from the seventh inning after a double from Tucker and issuing a walk to infielder José Abreu…replaced by Brock Stewart, who yielded a go-ahead grand slam to second baseman Jose Altuve (two runs charged to Gray)…Jorge López (1.0 IP) and Jhoan Duran (2.0 IP) combined to pitch 3.0 scoreless innings…the Twins tied the game in the ninth inning via an RBI single from Royce Lewis off Ryan Pressly and won the game in the 10th inning after a two-run home run by Ryan Jeffers off Bryan Abreu.

Ended the month of May with zero decisions…is the only pitcher in Twins history (1961-) to go decision-less in any month in which he made at least five starts.

AGAINST TORONTO: Gray is facing the Blue Jays for the 15th time in his career, going 4-4, 2.99 ERA (75.1 IP, 25 ER) with 41 walks and 67 strikeouts in his 14 previous appearances (13 starts)…last faced Toronto on August 4, 2022 at Target Field, taking a no-decision in a 9-3 Twins defeat after pitching 5.0 scoreless innings and allowing one hit, issuing five walks and striking out five…relieved by Emilio Pagán in the seventh inning, who allowed three runs (a home run by Teoscar Hernandez, an RBI single by Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and another RBI single to Whit Merrifield)…Trevor Megill entered in the eighth and permitted another RBI single to Gurriel Jr….Tyler Duffey replaced Megill (after allowing two more singles) and yielded two runs (an RBI single by George Springer and a three-run home run to Vladimir Guerrero Jr.).

Looking for his first win against the Blue Jays since September 23, 2017 when he led the New York Yankees to a 5-1 win at Rogers Centre after pitching 6.0 innings and allowing one run on four hits (1 HR), issuing three walks and fanning four batters.

Owns the 10th-lowest ERA against the Blue Jays since 2013 (min. 75.0 IP)…also tied for second for the most walks issued.

ROGER THAT: Gray is making his sixth road start of the season tonight; is 1-0, 2.88 ERA (25.0 IP, 8 ER) with 15 walks and 21 strikeouts in his five prior road outings…making his first start at Rogers Centre since July 6, 2018 when he took the loss in a 6-2 Yankees defeat (2.0 IP, 6 H, 5 R/ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 K)…is 2-4, 2.80 ERA (45.0 IP, 14 ER) with 22 walks and 51 strikeouts in eight starts at Rogers Centre…is 41-39, 3.24 ERA (683.2 IP, 246 ER) with 257 walks and 658 strikeouts in 123 career road appearances, including 118 starts.

Is 5-3, 3.39 ERA (77.0 IP, 29 ER) with 26 walks and 60 strikeouts in 16 road starts since becoming a Twin.

THE ARSENAL: Gray is currently using a six-pitch mix, per Baseball Savant…continues to use his curveball the most at 21.4 percent…both strikeouts recorded in his last start on June 3 came from a sweeper…allowed his first home run of the season on a curveball…primarily uses his curveball (153 pitches) and changeup (76 pitches) against lefties and his cutter (154 pitches), sinker (182 pitches) and sweeper (154 pitches) against righties…here’s a look at his repertoire so far:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
Curveball (79.1)……………………. 21.4% (236 pitches, 83/153)….. .283 (15-for-53), 4 2B, 1 HR, 14 K
4-Seam Fastball (92.6)………….. 20.3% (224 pitches, 72/152)……………. .321 (18-for-56), 4 2B, 3 K
Sinker (92.5) ………………………… 18.3% (202 pitches, 182/20)……. .200 (8-for-40), 2 2B, 1 3B, 17 K
Cutter (87.4) ………………………… 17.6% (194 pitches, 154/40)……………… .200 (7-for-35), 2 2B, 7 K
Sweeper (83.5)……………………… 15.2% (167 pitches, 154/13)……………. .151 (8-for-53), 2 2B, 28 K
Changeup (87.3)………………………. 7.1% (78 pitches, 2/76)…………………. .133 (2-for-15), 1 2B, 2 K

Owns the 13th-lowest opponent batting average (min. 30 PA) against a cutter and ranks 14th against a sinker…also is tied for the 10th-lowest opponent batting average against a changeup (min. 750 pitches).

His 28 strikeouts on his sweeper are the third-most in the majors, behind Shohei Ohtani (49) and Justin Lawrence (33).

SPINAROONIE: Currently, Gray’s fastball has a 2509 spin rate, placing him in the 96th percentile in all of baseball, according to Baseball Savant…marks the fourth-highest fastball spin rate of his career (2540 in 2022, 2526 in 2019 and 2519 in 2020)…has the highest fastball spin rate on the Twins staff.

TIMER VIOLATIONS: In Statcast’s new pitch timer violation leaderboard, Gray is tied for the second-most violations this season at five, alongside CWS’s Lucas Giolito and TOR’s Chris Bassitt; all violations for Gray have been pitcher violations…averages 221 pitches-per-violation.

The Twins are tied with four other teams for the ninth-most violations this season: 13 against pitchers, six against batters and two catcher violations.

THIS IS THE (RIGHT) WAY: Gray has seen more success against right-handed hitters as opposed to left-handed hitters this season…Gray has held righties to a .203 (29- for-143) batting average with 53 strikeouts as opposed to lefties who are batting .266 (29-for-109) with 18 strikeouts; allowed his first home run of the season to a left-handed hitter…since becoming a Twin, lefties are slashing .224/.270/.333 against him while righties are batting .228/.308/.336.

Owns the ninth-lowest opponent batting average against righties among American League pitchers, 14th in all of baseball…is tied for the eighth-most strikeouts against righties in the AL and is tied for 13th most in all of baseball.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS NOTES:

THE LATEST: The Blue Jays used a three-run 5th inning to overcome the Astros for a 3-2 win last night…Was their MLB-leading 12th win while scoring three-or-fewer runs…Improved to 10-5 in one-run games…Marked their 15th comeback win of the season. Toronto took three of four from the Astros and improved to 13-7-0 in series play with last night’s victory (7-2-0 at home)…Has now won seven of its last eight games, nine of its last 11, and 10 of its last 13 contests.

CAPTAIN CLUTCH: Alejandro Kirk tied last night’s game at 2’s with an RBI ground-rule double in the 5th inning…Was his 5th double of the campaign…Over his last 19 games, has batted .323 (20-for-62) with three doubles, a homer, and seven RBI (.763 OPS).

ONE NOTCH AT A TIME: Brandon Belt drove in the game-winning run last night with an RBI single to right field in the 5th…Also walked to finish with a 1-for-3 evening…Had a .235 OBP on May 1 but has since boosted that to .387 for the season, 6th best in the AL (min. 150 PA)…His 4.50 pitches per plate appearance are the most among AL hitters (2nd: Ryan Noda – 4.34) while his 6.41 PA/ BB is 4th best…Over his last 28 contests, has batted .349 (29-for-83) with nine doubles, three homers, 11 RBI, and 21 walks (1.052 OPS)…His .486 OBP over that span (since May 4) is the highest in the Majors (2nd: Aaron Judge – .457)

BERRÍ CONSISTENT: José Berríos limited the Astros to two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out two batters across 6.0 innings last night…Marked his 7th quality start of the season…Has now allowed two runs or fewer in six of his last seven outings…Over his last 1 starts, has gone 6-2 with a 2.53 ERA (19 ER/67.2 IP) and a 1.14 WHIP…His ERA over that span (since April 14) ranks 8th among AL pitchers…Now holds a 2.37 ERA (8 ER/30.1 IP) while going 3-1 across his five home starts this season.

HARD-HITTING FACTS: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singled in the 1st inning and walked in the 5th as part of a 1-for-3 evening…Has hits in seven of his last eight games while going 8-for29 (.276) with two doubles, a homer, three RBI, and a 5BB/3K ratio (.831 OPS)…His 68 hits are tied for 4th most in the AL…Has recorded an AL-leading 111 hard-hit balls (95+ MPH) this season, trailing only Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 115 for the most in MLB.

BO KNOWS BASE HITS:
Bo Bichette leads all MLB hitters with 89 hits (2nd:
Luis Arraez – 87)…Also leads the Majors with 144
total bases (2nd: Freddie Freeman – 142)…His .326
batting average ranks 1st in the AL (4th in MLB)
while he is currently 5th in SLG (.527), T-5th in home
runs (14), 7th in OPS (.886), T-8th in RBI (42), and
14th in OBP (.359).

KIKUCHI KICKS AND DELIVERS: Yusei Kikuchi gets the ball tonight with a 6-2 record… The six wins are tied for 9th in the AL and are one off h
his career best (7 in 2021).

HOME WORK: The Blue Jays are on a seven-day, seven-game homestand (3-1 so far)…Have gone 18-11 this season at Rogers Centre…The .621 win% at home is 3rd best in the AL…After this weekend series with the Twins, will head out for a nine-game road trip, making stops for three contests in each of Baltimore (38-24), Texas (40-21), and Miami (35-28). Toronto batters rank 3rd in the AL in home AVG (.261), while also 4th in home OBP (.335), 6th in home OPS (.741), and 8th in home SLG (.406)…The pitching staff ranks 1st among AL teams with a .209 home opponents’ average (2nd: TB – .218)…Are sitting 2nd among AL clubs with a 3.22 home ERA and 3rd with a 1.13 home WHIP.

WORKING LATE: Blue Jays batters scored five of their 15 runs in the Houston series in the 7th inning or later…Have an AL-high 108 runs in the 7th or later this season, trailing only the Dodgers (116) for the most in MLB… The pitching staff has allowed 80 runs from the 7th on, 4th fewest in the AL…The +28 run differential from the 7th inning on is the best in the Majors.

LAYING OFF THE DONUTS: The Blue Jays have notched 582 hits this season, behind only Texas (590) for the most in the Majors… Are currently 2nd in the AL in team AVG (.263), 3rd in OBP (.333), T-4th in extra-base hits (197), 5th in SLG (.423), 5th in OPS (.756). The Blue Jays are one of two MLB teams to have scored in every game this season (also: ARI)…Have gone 82 straight games without being shut out, the longest active streak in the Majors (2nd: ARI – 63G)…Is their longest such streak since scoring in 85 consecutive games from May 19-Aug. 23, 2000.

TOUGH SCHEDDING: The Blue Jays are in the midst of playing 30 games over the course of 31 days…All opponents during this stretch until tonight have been over .500 at game time…Are 15-12 through 27 contests

VS. THE TWINS: All-Time: 232-181
2023: 2-1 Home: 119-82
Home: 0-0 Rogers Centre: 79-52
The Blue Jays took two of three games when the teams met last month at Target Field…Went 3-4 last season vs. MIN, dropping two of three here at Rogers Centre.

Bo Bichette had multiple hits in all three games vs. the Twins last month, going 7-for-13 (.538) with a triple, two homers, and six RBI…Is a career 25-for-73 (.342) with five doubles, one triple, five homers, and 15 RBI over 17 games (.995 OPS).

George Springer also had hits in all three games in that prior Twins series, combining to hit .417 (5-for-12) with three doubles and a walk…Is a career .299 (53- for-177) batter across 45 career meetings, including 12 doubles, 12 home runs, and 34 RBI (.971 OPS).

Whit Merrifield leads all current Blue Jays with 107 career games played against his former division rivals…Has batted .297 (130-for-438) with 34 doubles, three triples, five home runs, and 47 RBI along the way (.768 OPS).

STARTING PITCHER – Yusei Kikuchi, LHP #16
TODAY’S GAME:
Making his 13th start of the season and his 6th at home…Took a no-decision his last time out, on 6/4 at NYM, giving up 2 runs over 5.0 innings with 4 hits, a walk, and 8 strikeouts…Induced a season-high 19 swing-and-misses…Has pitched into the 5th inning in all 12 outings this year.

2023 HIGHLIGHTS:
Improved to 6-2 on 5/30 vs. MIL, giving up 2 runs on 3 hits and a season-high 5 walks over 5.0 frames with 4 strikeouts…Punched out Joey Wiemer in the 4th inning for the 500th strikeout of his career…Became the 9th Japanese-born player to record 500 strikeouts and 500.0 innings pitched in the Majors. Shouldered the loss on 5/24 at TB, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 5.0 frames with 5 strikeouts…The outing was his 100th career start, becoming the 11th Japanese-born player to reach the century mark. Lasted 4.0+ frames on 5/14 vs. ATL, allowing 5R/4ER on 9 hits…Struck out 7 without issuing a walk. Improved to 5-0 on 5/7 at PIT, tossing 6.1 shutout frames with 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts…Marked his longest outing as a Blue Jay, and his 3rd quality start this season. Improved to 4-0 on 4/26 vs. CWS, throwing 5.2 frames of shutout ball while scattering four singles and a walk along with eight strikeouts…Has allowed one run or fewer in four of his five starts this year while the Blue Jays have won all five of his outings. Earned his 3rd win of the year on 4/21 at NYY, tossing 6.0 frames of onerun ball with 4 hits, 2 walks, and 3 strikeouts…Has back-to-back starts of 6.0+ innings and 0-or-1 runs allowed for the first time since 6/18-25 of his 2021 All-Star campaign. Improved to 2-0 on 4/15 vs. TB, throwing 6.0 innings of one-run ball with 4 hits, a walk, and a season-high 9 strikeouts…Marked his most punchouts in a single game as a Blue Jay…Completed 6.0 frames for the 1st time since 6/30/22 vs. TB. Took a no-decision on 4/9 at LAA, giving up 6 runs on 9 hits and a walk over 4.1 innings with 6 strikeouts…Threw 99 pitches (59 strikes) on the day, his most pitches in a single outing since 7/28/21 vs. HOU (101). Picked up the win in his season debut on 4/4 at KC, tossing 5.0 innings of one-run ball with 3 hits, a walk, and 2 strikeouts…Was his 1st start since 8/15/22 vs. BAL, and his 1st win as a starter since 7/28/22 vs. DET.

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