Sunday, October 20, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (10-6) at Boston Red Sox (8-9)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 2-2 through four games on their seven-game, eight-day roadtrip, winning the first two games in Yankee Stadium on Thursday and Friday, followed by con- secutive losses on Saturday and Sunday…tonight the Twins will continue the trip with the first of three against the Red Sox at Fenway Park…after Thursday afternoon’s series finale, he Twins will travel back to Minneapolis to begin a 10-game homestand with three games against the Nationals (April 21-23), three games against the Yankees (April 24-26) and four games against the Royals (April 27-30).

Twins are looking to avoid a season-long three-game losing streak tonight.

TWINS CAN’T SLOW DOWN THE COLE TRAIN: The Twins were shut out on Sunday afternoon at Yankee Stadium by Gerrit Cole and the Yankees by a final score of 2-0…Pablo López (1-1) was the starter and loser, allowing two runs on seven hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with one walk and seven strikeouts…the offense recorded just two hits on singles from Donovan Solano and Michael A. Taylor…they also struck out 10 times, walked once and put just one man in scoring position…it marked the Twins’ second time being shut out this season, the other coming on April 4 at Miami (Sandy Alcantara CGSO).

SEEING RED: The Twins went 4-3 against the Red Sox last season, going 2-2 at Fenway Park from April 15-18 and 2-1 at Target Field from August 29-31…it marked their first season series victory over Boston since going 5-2 in 2015…the Twins outscored the Sox 36-32 and won three of their last four.

The Twins’ last game at Fenway was the Patriot’s Day game the morning of the Boston Marathon exactly one year ago, winning by a score of 8-3.

Carlos Correa is hitting .314 (53-for-169) with eight doubles, 10 home runs, 26 RBI, 36 runs scored, 31 walks, a .420 on-base percentage, a .538 slugging percentage and a .958 OPS in 45 career regular season games against the Red Sox…he is hitting .311 (28-for-90) with seven home runs and a .980 OPS in 23 career games at Fenway.

Donovan Solano has hit safely in six of seven career games vs. Boston, hitting .391 (9- for-23) with a 1.075 OPS in those games.

Twins manager and former Red Sox outfielder (2009) Rocco Baldelli, has a career managerial record against Boston of 9-11 (since 2019), 5-5 at Fenway Park…the Woonsocket, Rhode Island native grew up approximately 49 miles southwest of Fenway Park… he attended Bishop Hendricken High School in Warwick, RI…he grew up a Red Sox fan, watching Wade Boggs, Ellis Burks, Roger Clemens, Mike Greenwell, et al.

HOMECOMING KING: Christian Vázquez was selected by the Red Sox in the ninth round of the 2008 First-Year Player Draft and played parts of eight seasons in Boston, hitting .262 (610-for-2329) with 124 doubles, 54 home runs, 266 RBI and 275 runs scored…he made his major league debut on July 9, 2014 vs. Chicago-AL at Fenway Park…did not record his first career Fenway hit until his fifth game here (12th career game), doubling off Mark Buehrle (TOR).

Vazquez has played 343 career games at Fenway, his last coming on July 31, 2022 vs. Milwaukee, going 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI.

He still ranks fifth on the Sox all-time list in games caught (651), trailing Jason Varitek (1488), Carlton Fisk (990), Sammy White (967) and Rich Gedman (858).

Hit walk-off homer for Red Sox in 13th inning of 2021 ALDS Game 3 vs. Tampa Bay…caught final pitch of the 2018 World Series, a swinging third strike to Manny Machado.

Earned the Unsung Hero Award from the Boston Chapter of the BBWAA following the 2017 season.

CHRISTIAN ROCKS: Christian Vázquez is slashing .333/.415/.417 with an .831 OPS in 12 games…he has reached base safely in nine of 12 games played…among all catchers in baseball, he ranks first in batting average, fourth in on-base percentage and eighth in OPS.

He also has three defensive runs saved, tied for third among all MLB catchers.

He has a catcher ERA of 2.20, which ranks second best in baseball, trailing Tampa Bay’s Francisco Mejía (2.08).

SOUTHPAW STORIES: The Twins are facing a left-handed starter for just the third time this season, the previous two being Jesús Luzardo on April 5 at Miami (5-2 loss) and Nestor Cortes on April 14 at New York-AL (4-3 win)…the Twins have the second-fewest at-bats against left-handed pitchers in the league with just 87, trailing only New York-AL (78).

Twins are slashing just .218/.281/.402 with four home runs vs. lefties (Correa, Gallo, Garlick and Larnach).

Carlos Correa is hitting .357 (20-for-56) with a 1.191 OPS against left-handed pitching in his last 28 games, since August 9, 2022.

SOLANO SMOKING: Donovan Solano has hit safely in 11-straight games, the longest streak by a Twin this season…the streak is tied for third- longest active streak in baseball with Xander Bogaerts, trailing Bryson Stott (16) and Mauricio Dubón (12)…his career-high is 17, done with San Francisco from July 25-August 15, 2020…a hit tonight would tie for the second-longest of his career (8/17-29/12)…during his current stretch, he is hitting .366 (15-for-41) with two walks, a .409 on-base percentage and an .873 OPS in that span.

STARTING PITCHER – SONNY GRAY 54
Will face Red Sox for the 11th time in his career, is 1-7, 6.80 ERA (43.2 P, 33 ER) with 14 walks and 38 strikeouts…last faced Boston on April 16, 2022.

250th career appearance, 241st career start.

Making fourth start of the year, second on the road…is 41-39, 3.23 ERA (663.2 IP, 238 ER) with 246 walks and 638 strikouts in career on the road.

Acquired by the Twins on March 13, 2022 in a trade with the Reds, along with right-handed pitcher Francis Peguero, in exchange for right-handed pitcher Chase Petty.

LAST START: Was the winner in the rubber match against the Chicago White Sox on April 12 at Target Field, opposite Lucas Giolito…pitched 5.0 scoreless innings with three hits, two walks issued and five strikeouts… relieved by Jorge Alcala to start the sixth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 3.2 scoreless innings until Jhoan Duran gave up a solo home run to Lenyn Sosa in the ninth inning…Twins won 3-1, securing the series victory to finish the homestand.

TWO STARTS AGO: Did not factor into the decision for the Twins home opener against the Houston Astros on April 7, opposite José Urquidy…pitched 7.0 innings, with one run over four hits and one walk issued…struck out a career high 13 batters…his previous record was 12 batters, which he last reached on July 3, 2019 against Milwaukee…struck out five of the first 10 batters he faced…relieved by Griffin Jax to start the eighth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 2.0 scoreless innings in relief of Gray, before Jorge López allowed a an unearned run in the 10th inning…Twins secured the 3-2 victory via a walkoff RBI single by Kyle Farmer.

Gray’s 13 strikeouts were the most by a Twins starter since Francisco Liriano’s 15 strikeouts July 13, 2012 vs. Oakland.

AGAINST BOSTON: Gray is facing the Red Sox for the 11th time in his career, going 1-7, 6.80 ERA (43.2 IP, 33 ER) with 14 walks and 38 strikeouts in his 10 previous appearances…last faced Boston on April 16, 2022 at Fenway Park…took the loss after pitching only 1.2 innings, surrendering two runs, five hits, one walk and striking out only one batter…left the game with hamstring tightness…placed on the 10-Day IL the next day with a strained right hamstring and would not return until May 7.

Made one relief appearance as a Yankee against the Red Sox on September 29, 2018 when he pitched 2.0 innings…allowed only one hit and fanned three batters.

His 6.80 ERA against the Red Sox is the highest against any team in his career…has a 10.80 ERA against the Red Sox since becoming a Twin.

RETURN TO THE ROAD: After his first road start of the year, Gray is 0-0, 0.00 ERA (5.0 IP, 0 ER) with four walks and one strikeout…is one of only nine pitchers in the American League yet to allow an earned run (or a run) on the road (min 5.0 IP)…Gray went 4-3, 3.63 ERA (52.0 IP, 21 ER) with 11 walks and 39 strikeouts in 11 starts on the road in 2022…is now 41-39, 3.23 ERA (663.2 IP, 238 ER) with 246 walks and 638 strikeouts in his career on the road…has the second highest ERA in his career at Fenway Park at 8.02, trailing only Globe Life Field (9.64).

LEFTIES AND RIGHTIES: So far this season, Gray has seen more success against right-handed hitters as opposed to lefties…in his first three starts, Gray has held righties to .146/.205/.220 (6-for-41) with 18 strikeouts as opposed to lefties who are slashing .211/.348/.263 with just one strikeout.

Ranks fifth among American League pitchers in opponent batting average against righties… is tied for eighth in all of baseball with teammate Joe Ryan and Tampa Bay’s Jeffrey Springs in strikeouts versus righties (min. 15.0 IP).

Since 2019, is holding left-handed hitters to a .202 (173-for-858) batting average, ranking third among major league right-handed pitchers (min. 750 AB) in that span, trailing Gerrit Cole (.188) and Zac Gallen (.196).

THE ARSENAL: Gray is currently using a six-pitch mix, per Baseball Savant…continues to use his curveball the most at 27.4 percent…has used the 4-seam fastball significantly less at only 15.1 percent this year compared to 28.3 percent last year…continues to exclusively use the slider against righties and has only used his changeup against lefties…two of his five strikeouts in his last start came from the cutter…here’s a look at his repertoire so far:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
Curveball (78.9)…………………………. 27.4% (71 pitches, 32/39)………………………….. .188 (3-for-16),1 2B, 3 K
Slider (83.0)……………………………….. 17.8% (46 pitches, 46/0)………………………… .071 (1-for-14), 1 2B, 11 K
Sinker (92.1) ………………………………. 16.2% (42 pitches, 36/6)……………………… .200(2-for-10), 1 2B, 3 K
4-Seam Fastball (92.6)……………….. 15.1% (39 pitches, 17/22)………………………….. .400 (4-for-10), 1 2B
Cutter (87.3) ………………………………. 14.3% (37 pitches, 36/1)………………………………. .000 (0-for-7), 2 K
Changeup (87.0)………………………….. 9.3% (24 pitches, 0/24)……………………………………… .000 (0-for-3)

Gray has recorded 11 of his 19 strikeouts with his slider and is tied for third in baseball for strikeouts off of a slider, trailing Dylan Cease (14) and Jacob Degrom (13)…his .071 opponent batting average against the slideris tied for 13th (min. 250 pitches).

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last 4 games…They have alternated series wins and losses this season: 2-1 vs. BAL, 0-3 vs. PIT, 3-0 at DET, 0-4 at TB, 3-1 vs. LAA. The Sox are in a stretch of 19 days without an off day from 4/8-26 (5-5 so far), their longest stretch of the season…They will not play on more than 10 consecutive days again until 8/15-30 (16 games). Each of the last 2 World Series champions was 8-9 or worse through 17 games: the 2022 Astros (8-9) and 2021 Braves (7-10).

WHAT A RELIEF: In their last 4 games, Red Sox relievers have posted a 0.98 ERA (2 ER/18.1 IP) while striking out 17 batters and walking only 2. Yesterday vs. LAA, Kutter Crawford allowed only 1 hit in 6.1 scoreless innings of relief…He was the first Sox pitcher to throw 6.0+ scoreless innings in relief since Tim Wakefield on 9/2/02 vs. KC (6.0 IP).

RED SOX PITCHERS WITH A RELIEF ERA BELOW 2.00
Pitcher Relief ERA IP ER
Kenley Jansen 0.00 5.0 0
Kutter Crawford 0.96 9.1 1
John Schreiber 1.13 8.0 1
Josh Winckowski 1.50 12.0 2

CLOSING TIME: In the 8th and 9th innings combined, the Red Sox lead MLB with a 1.20 ERA (4 ER/30.0 IP)…The Sox have outscored opponents in those innings, 19-5. The Sox are 6-0 when leading after 6 innings. The Red Sox are 1 of 3 teams in MLB without a blown save this season (5-for-5)…The other teams are TB (3-for-3) and MIA (3-for-3).

MOST SAVES IN MLB HISTORY
Rk. Pitcher SV

  1. Mariano Rivera …..652
  2. Trevor Hoffman …..601
  3. Lee Smith …………..478
  4. Francisco Rodriguez..437
    Rk. Pitcher SV
  5. John Franco………..424
  6. Billy Wagner……….422
    T7. Kenley Jansen .. 395
    T7. Craig Kimbrel ……..395

PACE OF PLAY: On Sunday vs. LAA, the Red Sox defeated the Angels in 1 hour and 57 minutes, tied for MLB’s shortest game of 2023 (also MIN at MIA on 4/4)…Those are the only 2 games played in 2 hours or less this season. Sunday marked the Sox’ fastest 9-inning game since 4/22/99 at DET (1:49, 1-0 loss), their fastest at Fenway Park since 10/1/89 vs. MIL (1:50, 5-1 win).

IT’S ALL RIGHT NOW: The Red Sox are scheduled to face a right-handed starting pitcher in each game of this series vs. MIN, after facing a left-handed starter in 8 of their previous 10 games. Left-handed starters are 1-4 with a 6.03 ERA in 9 games against the Sox (23 ER/34.1 IP), while righthanded starters are 4-1 with a 5.68 ERA in 8 games against them (24 ER/38.0 IP).

HOME COOKING: The Red Sox are 3-1 so far on their 7-game homestand vs. LAA (4 games) and MIN (3 games). In home games, the Sox rank 3rd in the AL in runs (55) and OBP (.340) and 4th in OPS (.769). The Sox sold 34,000+ tickets to each of their 4 games vs. LAA: Friday (36,680, sellout), Saturday (36,594, sellout), Sunday (34,790), and Monday (34,942).

CLOSE SHAVES: 13 of the Sox’ first 17 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer…The only team in MLB with more such games is CLE (14). The Red Sox’ 6 games decided by 1 run are tied for 3rd most in MLB behind CLE (9) and LAA (7)…Their 4 losses by 1 run trail only CIN (5) for most in MLB. 7 of the Sox’ 9 losses have come by 3 runs or fewer, including 1 loss by 2 runs and 4 by 1 run. The Sox have come from behind in 6 of their 8 wins.

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox are tied with LAD for 3rd in MLB in runs scored (91), trailing TB (115) and BAL (94). The Sox also rank in the AL’s top 5 in various offensive categories (see below). The Sox rank 9th in the majors in OPS against starting pitchers (.787), compared to 18th in OPS against relief pitchers (.688). The Sox have been hit by a pitch 11 times, tied for most in the AL and 2nd most in MLB (NYM-14, TB-11).

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat AL Rank
91 R………………………… 3rd
55 XBH…………………. T-3rd
21 HR ……………………… 4th
Stat AL Rank
.413 SLG …………………….. 5th
.736 OPS …………………….. 5th
21.1 SO%……………………. 4th

NINE IS FINE: Over their first 17 games, the Red Sox have scored 9+ runs 5 times (4-1 record), 4-8 runs 6 times (3-6 record), and 0-3 runs 6 times (1-5 record). The Sox’ 5 games with 9+ runs scored rank 2nd in MLB, trailing only TB (7). Since 1950, the only other seasons in which the Sox scored 9+ runs in as many as 5 of their first 17 games were 1995, 2012, and 2018 (also 5 games).

RUNNING RED SOX: The Red Sox are 8-for-8 in stolen base attempts…That is their longest streak of successful attempts to begin a season since 2015 (12-for-12). The only other teams that have not been caught stealing this season are the White Sox (13-for-13) and Royals (10-for-10).

FOREVER AND DEVERS: Rafael Devers leads the AL with 7 HR, 1 behind Pete Alonso (NYM) and Patrick Wisdom (CHC) for the MLB lead. Prior to Devers, the last Red Sox player to be leading the AL outright in HR entering play on 4/18 was Fred Lynn in 1979 (6 HR).

DEVERS’ AL RANKINGS
Stat AL
7 HR ……………………..1st
16 RBI…………………… T-4th
14 R……………………… T-4th
Stat AL
11 XBH……………………….. 3rd
43 total bases ……………… 3rd
.652 SLG …………………….. 3rd

EARLY AND OFTEN: The Red Sox have scored in either the 1st or 2nd inning in 10 of their 17 games (21 total runs). The Sox’ 12 runs in the 1st inning are tied for 4th most in the AL behind LAA (17), TB (15), and MIN (13)… Their 9 runs in the 2nd inning are tied for 3rd most in the AL behind BAL (12) and TB (10).

PINCH ME!: The Red Sox have used a pinch-hitter 19 times this season, going 7-for-16 with 3 RBI (2B, HR, BB). The Sox’ .438 AVG (7-for-16) in pinch-hit situations leads MLB…Their 7 pinch hits are 4 more than any other team…Raimel Tapia leads MLB in pinch hits (3).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 41 CHRIS SALE – LHP
Is making the 99th start of his Red Sox career. Opponents are batting .188 vs. his slider (3-for-16) and .154 vs. his changeup (2-for-13), compared to .600 vs. his 4-seam fastball (6-for-10) and .438 vs. his sinker (7-for-16). Has struck out at least 6 batters in each of his 3 starts this season. Owns a 3.91 ERA (60 ER/138.0 IP) in 29 career games (21 starts) vs. MIN…Struck out 8 batters over 5.1 IP in his last start vs. MIN on 8/26/21 (2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, HR). Owns a 3.35 ERA (103 ER/277.0 IP) in 50 career games (47 starts) at Fenway Park. Has averaged 11.09 SO/9.0 IP (2,083 SO/1,690.0 IP) in his career, the highest rate in the Live Ball Era (min. 1,000 IP).

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